Monday Morning Hangover: Brock Osweiler's Time Is Now

When analyzing a sticky quarterback situation, it's important to remain calm and rational, to take the long-range view, to not let the narrative sweep you away like an avalanche down a cliff face into a ravine of jagged rocks.

Clears throat...

BROCK OSWEILER SHOULD BE THE BRONCOS STARTER FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. GIVE PEYTON MANNING A GOLD WATCH AND LIFETIME SUBSCRIPTION TO PREVENTION MAGAZINE AND SEND HIM HOME. OSWEILER WILL BEAT THE PATRIOTS. HE WILL RUN THE TABLE. HE IS THE BRONCOS' ONLY HOPE.

Sigh. That didn't go well. But the fact is Osweiler should be the Broncos quarterback for the foreseeable future, not for shortsighted or reactionary reasons, but for good reasons.

Osweiler did just enough in the Broncos' 17-15 win over the Bears to sustain a quarterback controversy. He threw for 250 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions, never once looking like someone who needed a handrail to climb out of a bathtub. Manning skeptics have plenty of evidence to support the conclusion that Osweiler gives the Broncos the best chance to win.

Osweiler also led the Broncos to just 17 points against a mediocre defense on a day when his running backs contributed 161 rushing yards. His signature highlight was a throw to Demaryius Thomas with no Bears defender within 15 yards.

Manning boosters can point out that if the Broncos needed to stuff a two-point conversion attempt in the final seconds to seal a win against a so-so opponent with Manning at the helm, the dirt-shoveling volunteers would be lined up across America.

Regular readers of Hangover know we lean toward the Manning boosters. You don't bench a Hall of Famer in the chill of a December Super Bowl chase, when experience and composure get you further than a rocket arm and swift legs, until you are absolutely certain his odometer has turned over for the last time.

That said, there are three reasons why the Broncos should stick with Osweiler:

1) Osweiler Committed No Turnovers

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press/Associated Press

Granted, Osweiler didn't throw any interceptions because Gary Kubiak didn't put him in position to throw interceptions.

On 4th-and-1 from the 2-yard line, Kubiak stuck backup center James Ferentz in the backfield and thumped Ronnie Hillman for no gain. On late-game third downs, Osweiler handed off or slid in the backfield if no one was open. Manning would have attempted passes in those situations: Some good, probably one or two not so good.

But here's the thing: The Broncos are better off playing ultra-conservative offensive football. They are designed to win with defense and ball control. Even on a day when their defense was making mistakes and committing too many penalties, the Denver defense made the stops it had to make, in part because it had the field-position advantage that often comes with a turnover-free day.

2) Osweiler Managed the Game

Oh no. A sportswriter is discussing game management. Commence eye-rolling! No, belay that order.

Osweiler wasn't just a good "game manager" because his team won a low-scoring game and we are compliment-fishing. Osweiler called audibles and made adjustments at the line. He took a few smart situational risks, most notably his 3rd-and-8 touchdown throw to Cody Latimer in a tight window.

Osweiler is no rookie. He has spent three-and-a-half years in quarterback-meeting rooms, sitting next to Peyton Manning. He has learned many of the finer points of running an offense. Osweiler demonstrated the kind of command of the game Sunday that keeps a young quarterback from wilting when he faces a tighter defense in a playoff situation.

3) Osweiler Looked Like a Gary Kubiak Quarterback

David Banks/Getty Images

Osweiler is a tall kid (6'8") with a strong arm who looks very comfortable taking a center snap, rolling out after play-action and either firing downfield or flicking a short pass into the flat. Of all those attributes, only "tall" really applies to Manning anymore.

With Manning at the helm, the Broncos offense looks like a station wagon with rusty old muscle car parts welded to the hood. With Osweiler under center, Kubiak can be Kubiak, not FrankenKubiManning.

The Kubiak offense may not make your toes curl with enthusiasm, but it's an efficient system when working in harmony with a defense built to win games and special teams that reward every trip inside the 35-yard line.

So Osweiler may not be a better quarterback than the Manning of September and October. But he's the best quarterback for the current Broncos situation. The Manning of the first two months was still pretty good at getting out of the trouble he kept getting himself into. Osweiler might avoid the trouble in the first place.

Will that change when Manning is completely healthy? "Completely healthy" is a slippery concept for a 39-year-old quarterback.

Can Osweiler beat the Patriots next Sunday night? The goal of the Broncos' season is not to beat the Patriots in Week 12. The goal is to win the Super Bowl. Maybe the Patriots experience can prepare Osweiler for a playoff atmosphere. Maybe it will give Manning the time he needs to get healthier for when and if the Broncos really need him. Manning is a heck of a Plan B to bring off the bench.

Every quarterback change comes with baggage. When a fourth-year QB who attempted 30 passes total in his first three seasons replaces a Hall of Famer, there's a whole row of storage units along for the ride.

Leave the baggage aside. This is not about Manning's "legacy" or some soap opera. It's about six more games, playoff seedings, 17 interceptions, the type of foot injury that never really heals, three-and-a-half years preparing for an opportunity, and, yes, the coming post-Manning Denver Broncos reality.

Osweiler is the best choice for the Broncos right now. It's up to Kubiak, the defense and the rest of the organization to make sure that choice is good enough.

Stock Watch QB Special, Part I: Veterans' Narratives

Don't expect to see J.J. Watt or Doug Martin in this week's Stock Watch, even though both kicked total butt. Hangover has quarterbacks on the brain, and the first part of Stock Watch focuses on well-known veterans in various states of narrative juiciness.

Tony Romo, Cowboys Savior

Joe Robbins/Getty Images

Romo looked rusty.

He did some Romo things, like stumbling away from pressure for a Houdini completion, plus several last-second ejections of checkdown passes from a disintegrating pocket like he was flinging canned peaches with a spoon (with his left hand at times).

But Romo (18-of-28, 227 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions) also bounced some passes and didn't have much velocity on his throws, even after rainy conditions cleared up in Miami.

The Cowboys' 24-14 win over the Dolphins was close until Jason Garrett had the brainstorm of lining up Dez Bryant as the inside receiver in a trips formation, where he was covered by Neville Hewitt, former deputy prime minister of New Zealand. Romo floated an easy touchdown to help the Cowboys gain control of the game.

Despite the victory, the Cowboys were so unimpressive that talk of running the table and reaching the playoffs now that Romo is back sounds ridiculous. At least until you watch the highlights of the Redskins and Eagles losses. Then anything seems possible in the NFC East.

Pipe dreams aside, Romo's return is not a case of too little, too late but a case of the Cowboys doing too little for far too long. Steady.

Andy Dalton Will Break Your Heart in Big Games

If you interpret Dalton's performance in Sunday night's 34-31 thriller as "choking," you probably said some pretty awful things about Romo back in the day.

Dalton battled hard against the Cardinals, leading a late-game comeback despite the fact his pass protection basically ceased to exist. He finished with 315 passing yards, two touchdowns and one critical fumble deep in Bengals territory when the pocket crumpled around him for the umpteenth time.

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Dalton was what he has always been Sunday night: A limited deep passer who can shred you with short-to-intermediate ball distribution if given a few microseconds to throw and some reasonable teammate support. He helped the Bengals take an excellent team playing a very good game to the wall in its home stadium.

That said, the Bengals weren't quite good enough against a top opponent, and that cannot be shrugged off. They lacked lots of little "somethings": one or two fewer penalties, some tighter defense in the secondary, more north-south and less east-west from the running backs, maybe better efforts on catchable balls by A.J. Green and Marvin Jones, certainly better blitz pickup.

The teams the Bengals must beat to reach and win the Super Bowl excel at getting all of those "somethings" when they need them.

Don't blame Dalton for Sunday night's loss. And don't worry about the Bengals' prime-time problems. But be concerned that their best still comes just three points shy of where they need to be. Steady.

Cam Newton for MVP

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

As regular readers know, Hangover believes that everyone in the Cam for MVP crowd is either:

• Just generating chitchat because it's boring to shout Tom Brady for MVP.
• Overcompensating for years of mean-spirited Cam-bashing, even among Panthers fans (especially among Panthers fans).
• Setting Cam up for an extra-juicy So much progress, but why can't he win the big ones? narrative at the first two-game losing streak.
• Performing a basic calculation without having regularly watched the Panthers: Undefeated team + well-known quarterback = MVP campaign.

Well, five touchdown passes in a 44-16 win certainly made Newton look like an MVP candidate this week.

Of course, if Brady threw five touchdowns in a 44-16 win over a bad team, we would probably just shrug or complain about running up the score.

Anyway, Hangover is ready to name Newton MVP of the NFC and the absolute challenger to Brady. If Newton keeps impressing each week and Brady falters in any meaningful way, the award is Cam's. Rising.

Something Is Wrong with Aaron Rodgers

Several cures were discovered for Rodgers' ills in a 30-13 Packers win over the Vikings:

• Healthy Eddie Lacy rumbling for 100 yards. If Lacy can be held to fewer than two turkey drumsticks Thursday, the Packers' playoff outlook is back on track.
• The defense beating the tar out of Teddy Bridgewater while the offense found itself.
• Jeff Janis returning a kickoff 70 yards to set up an early field goal.
• Janis also drawing a 50-yard interference penalty to set up a touchdown.

Rodgers completed 16 of 34 passes for 212 yards and two touchdowns, plus a sidearmed two-point conversion.

Those aren't great numbers, and Rodgers did not have a great game. But football is a team sport, and Rodgers got a little bit more out of his teammates this week, which means less speculation about his romantic life. Falling.

Something Is Wrong with Matt Ryan

Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images

Ryan threw three interceptions, including a dopey pick-six from his own end zone that would embarrass a rookie. He was off-target and off-kilter all afternoon in the loss to the Colts.

Ryan has claimed to be healthy all season, but every time a veteran quarterback has undergone a slump like Ryan's this season (think: Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, Andrew Luck), we have later learned they were concealing significant injuries.

The way Ryan is playing, he may have secretly had three ribs and a kidney removed, plus a knee ligament replaced with a USB cable. Rising.

Stock Watch QB Special, Part II: The Replacements

Now let's look at Brock Osweiler's kindred spirits: the backups who were pressed or promoted into starting duties Sunday.

Case Keenum, Rams

Patrick Smith/Getty Images

Keenum's sole talent is standing around and waiting for the Ravens to commit penalties. That was a prudent strategy for much of Sunday. Keenum completed 12 of 26 passes for 136 yards and one touchdown, while the Ravens committed 10 penalties for 137 yards.

The Rams had a scoring drive that consisted of 10 offensive yards and 49 penalty yards. There were times when Ravens defenders wandered up and shoved Rams players three seconds after the play was whistled dead.

The Ravens eventually got control of themselves and won 16-13—while losing both Joe Flacco and Justin Forsett to injuries. That's right, folks: RAVENS FOOTBALL SOMEHOW JUST GOT UGLIER.

But it is still not as ugly as Rams football, which now consists of Keenum throwing 10 yards out of bounds with no receiver in sight, heaving 30-yard passes to receivers 45 yards downfield, and slipping and falling while handing off to Todd Gurley.

Keenum remained in the game late in the fourth quarter after suffering the kind of apparent concussion that is supposed to automatically take a player off the field. He immediately fumbled to set up the final Ravens field goal.

Maybe the problem in St. Louis isn't any quarterback, but a coaching staff that still thinks it's 1985. Falling.

Matt Hasselbeck

Hasselbeck (23-of-32, 213 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions) had a stereotypical Wily Old Guy game in a 24-21 win over the Falcons.

He hopped around the pocket spraying teensy-weensy passes to running backs and receivers in the middle of the field, combining just enough yards after the catch with a pick-six by his defense and a touchdown drive consisting of mostly defensive penalties to manufacture a comeback win.

Sportswriters, talk-show hosts and certain varieties of fans all love Wily Old Guy games. People whose job it is to win football games generally prefer quarterbacks who can actually complete passes deep down the field when necessary. Rising.

T.J. Yates

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Yates (16-of-34, 229 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions) successfully stood in the pocket, handed off and launched enough accurate passes to DeAndre Hopkins to produce a 24-17 Texans win over the Jets. The performance should come as no surprise, because Yates led the Texans into the playoffs as a rookie in 2011 by standing in the pocket, handing off and launching occasional deep passes to Andre Johnson.

Yates got some help from Cecil Shorts III, who threw a touchdown pass to Alfred Blue on a trick play. He also got a boost from Ryan Fitzpatrick, who was having the kind of game Wily Old Guys have when the infatuation wears off: two interceptions, 20 incomplete passes in 39 attempts and a 3-of-14 third-down rate for his offense.

The Texans experienced no significant drop-off from Brian Hoyer to Yates, which makes you wonder if they will ever find a quarterback who provides more than the absolute bare minimum. Rising.

Mark Sanchez

Sanchez looked impressive in the Eagles' second drive. Unfortunately, he got his first start on the day when the Eagles defense finally got fed up and quit on the offense.

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Sanchez threw three interceptions to go with two touchdowns and 261 yards on 26-of-41 passing, but he was more an effect than a cause of the Buccaneers' 45-17 dismantling of the Eagles.

Jameis Winston threw five touchdown passes. Doug Martin rushed for 235 yards. Two of Sanchez's interceptions, including a pick-six to Lavonte David, occurred after the Eagles defense had surrendered.

Chip Kelly's biggest problem right now isn't Sanchez. It's a sizable chunk of the roster that appears to have opted out of his vaunted team culture. Falling.

Stock Watch QB Special, Part III: Young Quarterbacks in General

• Winston, as just mentioned, had a star turn.
• Bridgewater was a crash-test dummy all afternoon but kept battling.
• Derek Carr had a rough game against the Lions.
• Blake Bortles and Marcus Mariota battled to a yawn Thursday night, though neither looked really bad.
• Cam, as mentioned, is an MVP candidate.
• Russell Wilson threw three touchdown passes.

All of these quarterbacks are 26 or younger. Osweiler turned 25 Sunday.

Saying "there are no good young quarterbacks" is like saying "there is nothing good on television these days." There are many good young quarterbacks in various states of development.

The problem is none of them are already 35-year-olds with multiple Super Bowl rings, so we harp on their off days instead of marveling at their five-touchdown performances. Rising.

Performance Bonuses

Offensive Line Bonus

Matt Rourke/Associated Press/Associated Press

You can't overlook a 283-yard rushing day or a five-touchdown performance by a quarterback.

Winston had time to refinance a mortgage in the pocket against an Eagles defense that is usually tough, and Martin sometimes wasn't touched by a defender until they were chasing him down at the goal line. So let's give this bonus to Donovan Smith, Logan Mankins, Joe Hawley, Evan Smith and Gosder Cherilus.

Justin Tucker Special Teams Bonus

Punters generally don't get much attention, especially when their teams win by 30 points. But Dustin Colquitt forced the Chargers to start four of their drives on their own 7-, 6-, 11- and 1-yard lines in the Chiefs' 33-3 victory. The Chargers muffed a fifth Colquitt punt.

The field-position tilt made a difference in a game that did not get out of hand until the fourth quarter.

Lovers of special teams and weird stats take note: The Chargers have one punt-return yard this entire season. One yard, on 26 fielded punts, including 17 fair catches. Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates should team up and yell at the punt returner, if they can find one.

Unsung Defensive Hero Bonus

Ann Heisenfelt/Associated Press/Associated Press

Datone Jones is a role player who is typically overshadowed by Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers on the Packers front seven. Even when discussing the Packers' role players, the versatile Mike Daniels usually gets more notice than Jones.

But the Packers are relying on their role players to get them through this season, and Jones had a monster game: two sacks (for 28 yards!) and four QB hits.

Bridgewater, who must learn that he is not Russell Wilson and cannot spin backward 10 yards to elude pass-rushers, missed part of the game and will probably spend the next three days in a whirlpool after what Jones and the Packers did to him in their quest to reclaim first place in the NFC North.

Meaningless Fantasy Touchdown Bonus

Russell Wilson connected with Thomas Rawls for a 31-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter to give the Seahawks a 29-13 lead on the 49ers.

Granted, it was early in the fourth quarter, and the 10-point lead the Seahawks held at the time was hardly insurmountable. But do you think Blaine Gabbert had any real chance to lead a comeback against the Seahawks? Didn't think so.

Caleb Sturgis gets honorable mention for the field goal that cut the Buccaneers' lead over the Eagles to 38-17 with 5:10 to play.

Chip Kelly truly believes his offense can score 21 points in five minutes. He just doesn't believe it can convert a fourth down. If you can't figure that out, you are just too shallow to comprehend Chip Kelly.

Fantasy Leech Bonus

Scott Cunningham/Getty Images

Did you miss the Falcons during their bye week? Did you miss that uncomfortable feeling that you were supposed to care about the Falcons even though you couldn't figure out how they started 6-1 and had a feeling they didn't know either?

Well, fantasy gamers sure did miss the Falcons: Devonta Freeman is one of the most important figures in fantasy football this year, and Julio Jones is not far behind. So, naturally, fullback Patrick DiMarco caught two touchdowns passes, with Leonard Hankerson hauling in the third in a Freeman-Jones shutout.

Gonzo Fantasy Waiver Bid Bonus

Freeman suffered a concussion in the Falcons loss, and Forsett broke an arm in the Ravens-Rams reenactment of the 1914 Battle of Ypres, so fantasy gamers are going to be starving for running backs.

Freeman's backup is Tevin Coleman, a well-regarded rookie who was probably drafted before Freeman in most leagues. The third-stringer is Terron Ward, an undrafted rookie from Oregon State who lists at 5'7".

Lenny Ignelzi/Associated Press/Associated Press

Rookie Javorius Allen got most of the carries with Forsett out in Baltimore, but with Flacco, Steve Smith Sr. and Forsett all gone, the Ravens might just start punting on second downs.

Spencer Ware is where the action is.

Ware, a converted fullback who spent some time with the Seahawks in 2013, replaced Charcandrick West (hamstring) and rushed 11 times for 96 yards and two touchdowns.

Whereas the Falcons will just throw interceptions with Freeman hurt and the Ravens may get downgraded to the ACC, Andy Reid will give gobs of carries to any converted fullback he can find if it means not having to think about his second or third wide receivers.

Mystery Touch Bonus

Dontari Poe became the heaviest player in NFL history to score an offensive touchdown when the 346-pound defensive lineman impersonated William "The Refrigerator" Perry on a one-yard plunge. Tune in next week when Poe moves past Albert Wilson on the Chiefs' wide receiver depth chart.

Colts right tackle Joe Reitz is officially listed with one carry for zero yards. More accurately, Matt Hasselbeck was spinning around the pocket doing gutsy old-guy stuff and threw a backward (and therefore legal) screen pass to Reitz, who rumbled back to the line of scrimmage.

Tight end Coby Fleener also intercepted a pass in the Colts win. Fleener is part of the Hail Mary prevention team. Maybe the Colts' problem all year is that everyone is out of position.

The linemen should be running backs, the tight ends should be safeties and the linebackers should be receivers. If it all ends with Andrew Luck as head coach and general manager, a shake-up like that just might work!

Last Call: Bad Ideas

This week's Last Call celebrates bad ideas across the NFL.

Running Around in Your Underwear: Bad Idea

Matt Barkley lost an accuracy competition among the Cardinals quarterbacks and had to run onto the field at University of Phoenix Stadium in just his underwear (plus a trash bag and some well-placed towels) as a result.

It begs the question: What made Barkley think he had a chance of winning an accuracy contest among the Cardinals quarterbacks? Maybe a summer with Sam Bradford, Mark Sanchez and Tim Tebow gave him a distorted impression of his passing skills.

It takes all of Hangover's concentration to type "Cardinals quarterback on the field in his underwear" without automatically misidentifying him as Matt Leinart.

Blaming "Referee Bias" in a 44-16 Loss: Bad Idea

Washington defensive end Jason Hatcher thinks officials are squeezing the Redskins because of their racially insensitive team name. The Redskins are actually not penalized an inordinate number of times, but let's not dignify this nonsense with any real analysis.

Hatcher's comments are part of the team's new Yes, our name is horribly insensitive, but...campaign. Yes, our name is horribly insensitive, but it technically falls under the same copyright laws that protect pornographers, so neener-neener. Yes, our name is horribly insensitive, but if a roughness call goes against us in a blowout, we're the real victims.

The first step toward change is admitting there's a problem, even if that admission is mostly tacit and unintentionally ironic.

Fighting on the Sideline When Your Team Is Unpopular: Bad Idea

Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports

When Greg Hardy and Random Cowboys Player X get into a sideline spat, it's big news and a sign that society itself is crumbling. When Philip Rivers and Antonio Gates get into it, it's more like mom and dad arguing over the credit card bill.

We know you are frustrated, guys, but keep a brave face in front of the kids.

Subjecting Wes Welker to Unnecessary Risks: Bad Idea

The Rams used Wes Welker and Tavon Austin as dual punt returners this week. Their reasoning must have been that the Ravens would punt away from Austin and toward Welker, a return man more likely to get severely injured in the act of returning a punt a short distance.

The Ravens punted to Austin more often, so Welker had to lead block against hungry, young special teams gunners running down the field at 20 miles per hour. Welker escaped unscathed this week. Next week, Jeff Fisher will ask him to try his luck commercial crab fishing off the Alaskan coast.

Wearing a Fox Tail to a Press Conference: Bad Idea

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Cam Newton likes to thumb his nose at his critics, but he should know better than to waste power-ups. His Tanooki Cam suit lets him perform the tail-whip on opponents and transform into an indestructible statue.

It even allows him to glide like a flying squirrel short distances. Such a valuable power-up should not be wasted on a press conference.

Then again, when Cam wears a fox tail to a press conference, we know what we are going to spend the first half of the week talking about.

Mike Tanier covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.