Daily Fantasy Football November 11: DFS Stock Up, Stock Down

Nine weeks into the NFL season, a few key players are finally meeting preseason expectations.

All three players experiencing rising DraftKings stock entered the year as premium picks, but their value faded through two months before halting the drop on Sunday. While they scorned daily fantasy contestants early in 2015, they're poised to make amends down the stretch.

For these select NFL talents seeking redemption, it's better late than never.

Stock Up

DeMarco Murray, RB, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,200)

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

On the heels of a heavily worked 2,261-yard season, DeMarco Murray opened 2015's first two games with 11 yards through 21 carries. He won't replicate last year's results without an irresponsible amount of touches his way, but the running back has settled back into a high-quality option.

Against the guys who ran him into the ground, the Philadelphia Eagles rusher produced a season-high 161 yards on 24 touches. He also reached the end zone during a 33-27 overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys, giving the 27-year-old 28.1 DraftKings points.

Over his last four games, Murray has supplied 477 total yards and three scores on 94 touches. Following an 0-3 start, he has topped 100 yards in each of Philadelphia's three victories, erasing the sour taste of his subpar September.

“You’ve just got to continue to grind,” Murray told ESPN.com's Phil Sheridan. “No matter what you’ve done in the past—bad, negative, great—you’ve got to continue to come in every day to work. Don’t let it affect your play. Don’t let the noise, distractions and all that affect how you play.”

A more favorable schedule has helped his cause, and the Miami Dolphins present a great opportunity to sustain his hot streak. After surrendering more than 100 yards to both LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams, they rank No. 31 in rushing defense and No. 29 in DraftKings points allowed to running backs. With pickings at running back so slim, turn to Murray ($6,200) as a No. 1 option in Week 10.

Jordan Matthews, WR, Philadelphia Eagles ($6,200)

Staying in Philadelphia, Jordan Matthews finally did something noteworthy. 

While he hadn't performed poorly enough to consider him a complete fantasy bust, he also leaped nowhere near his hyped preseason ceiling. Before Week 9, the 23-year-old wideout hadn't scored a touchdown since Week 2 or recorded more than 100 yards since Week 1. He accomplished both against Dallas, providing a season-high 133 yards and a walk-off score.

For all his struggles, Matthews is on pace for 96 catches and 1,062 receiving yards. Still, it's a letdown given his 64 percent catch rate plagued by drops and four straight scoreless games in the 40-60-yard range.

He hasn't met lofty expectations, and he needed extra time to record his second touchdown of the season, both against Dallas. Matthews carries limited upside, especially against a neutral opponent like Miami, but the high-volume target remains relevant under DraftKings' point-per-reception (PPR) scoring.

Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers ($4,200)

Mike Roemer/Associated Press

There's what everyone wanted from Davante Adams in Week 1, when everyone utilized the underpriced Green Bay Packers wideout due to Jordy Nelson's season-ending injury. Instead of Adams morphing into a big-time contributor, veteran James Jones stole the spotlight before Adams injured his ankle.

In his second game back—the first coming against a stingy Denver Broncos defense—the 22-year-old caught seven passes for 93 yards against the Carolina Panthers. Not including a successful two-point conversion, he received 11 targets, one fewer than Randall Cobb, while Aaron Rodgers looked Jones' way six times.

The touchdown-needy Jones has predictably fizzled, netting seven receptions over his last four games. He'll fade away behind a healthy Adams, who can finally evolve into the potent No. 2 target everyone anticipated heading into the season.

Consider this Sunday a makeup call for Week 1, where he underwhelmed his hordes of backers with four catches and 59 yards. At $4,200, he's actually $200 cheaper than his opening price, and he gets a Detroit Lions defense last in opposing completion percentage (73.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.7). 

Stock Down

Eli Manning, QB, New York Giants ($6,700)

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Eli Manning is less than two weeks removed from a six-touchdown game. It seems harsh to give him flak for surrendering two picks alongside 213 yards and two scores against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but the erratic New York Giants quarterback has proved to be no more than a definitive matchup play.

Manning dazzled against the San Francisco 49ers and New Orleans Saints, respectively ranked No. 28 and No. 30 against the pass. He earned a combined 791 yards and nine touchdowns through those games, both times proving one of the week's premier value plays.

In the other seven bouts, he's averaging a robust 14.2 DraftKings points per game. Granted, it's not entirely fair to say, "Take away the two times he was exceptional and he isn't that great," but it represents the notoriously up-and-down passer.

Manning costs $6,700, the sixth-highest cost among healthy quarterbacks. Five cheaper starting signal-callers boast higher DraftKings scoring averages than his 19.3, and Brian Hoyer is available at $5,400 for an identical rate.

The New England Patriots rank No. 16 against the pass, which means Manning isn't worth a deep look ahead of Andy Dalton, Tyrod Taylor and even Kirk Cousins against the very Saints the Giants quarterback dismantled. A tough late-season schedule leaves very few opportunities to comfortably use Manning again in 2015.

Jeremy Hill, RB, Cincinnati Bengals ($5,300)

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

If DFS players can't trust Jeremy Hill against the Cleveland Browns, they never can.

Facing the NFL's worst rushing defense, he mustered 52 yards on 15 carries. The Cincinnati Bengals running back, who has scored his six touchdowns in bunches, has made one end-zone appearance since Week 4's three-touchdown outburst.

Teammate Giovani Bernard went missing the week before Thursday night's tilt with Cleveland, but he reappeared to collect 86 yards on 14 touches. Unless Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis is rostering Hill in seasonal fantasy formats, there's little reason to keep playing him over the more productive Bernard.

PLAYER	ATT	RUSH YD	YPC	REC	REC YD	TD	DK PPG*
Hill	104	344	3.3	5	35	6	9.9
Bernard	91	511	5.6	21	155	2	12.8

When a fringe starter entrenched in a committee can't capitalize on the best matchup possible, he becomes nearly impossible to employ. He'll get one last chance against the Houston Texans' No. 27 rushing defense, but a $5,300 back averaging 3.3 yards per carry with no pass-catching contributions isn't worth the headache.

Julius Thomas, TE, Jacksonville Jaguars ($3,700)

Tim Ireland/Associated Press

Every now and then, everyone is right about something. Few onlookers expected Julius Thomas to successfully transition from the Broncos to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Through four games, they're right.

WEEK	OPP	REC	TAR	REC YD	TD
5	@ TB	2	2	20	0
6	HOU	7	13	78	1
7	BUF	1	5	4	0
9	@ NYJ	3	8	14	0

With Darrelle Revis shadowing Allen Robinson and Antonio Cromartie covering Allen Hurns, Week 9 was a good time for the tight end to establish a rapport with quarterback Blake Bortles. Both wideouts instead offered over 120 yards against the New York Jets.

It's not all bad news. The results aren't there, but the targets are. Even if he's a clear third fiddle to Robinson and Hurns, Thomas remains a priority despite his poor progress. As his price continues to fade, remember him down the road when a great matchup materializes.

Don't forget about him completely, but Week 10 isn't the time to bank on a rebound. While the Baltimore Ravens rank No. 29 in passing defense, they have yielded the second-fewest DraftKings points to opposing tight ends. If top cornerbacks can't stop Jacksonville's star receivers, a horrible secondary won't.

All pricing and scoring information obtained from DraftKings.com unless otherwise noted.

---

Enter the DraftKings $1.25M Play-Action Contest this weekend. Use Promo Code BLEACHER REPORT when you sign up.