NFL Predictions Week 10: Upset Picks and Projections

If a last-place team led by Blaine Gabbert can win an NFL game, anyone can.

The scheduling gods gifted the Atlanta Falcons the easiest triumph imaginable, pitting them against the San Francisco 49ers without Colin Kaepernick, Carlos Hyde, Anquan Boldin and Vernon Davis. They shouldn't have earned a first down, let alone a victory.

Any pundit who picked the 49ers last week probably didn't have a job by the time they played on Sunday. Once again, football remains weird.

Which underdogs will stir the league's crazy pot this weekend? After looking at the Week 10 lines, courtesy of Odds Shark, let's look at two games with upset potential.  

Away	Home	Spread	Prediction
Buffalo Bills	New York Jets	NYJ -2.5	24-21 BUF
Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	GB -13	34-20 GB
Dallas Cowboys	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -1	27-23 TB
Carolina Panthers	Tennessee Titans	CAR -5	26-17 CAR
Chicago Bears	St. Louis Rams	STL -7.5	20-14 STL
New Orleans Saints	Washington Redskins	Ev	30-28 NO
Miami Dolphins	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI -7	31-27 PHI
Cleveland Browns	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -4.5	20-18 PIT
Jacksonville Jaguars	Baltimore Ravens	BAL -5.5	30-27 JAX
Minnesota Vikings	Oakland Raiders	N/A	24-23 OAK
New England Patriots	New York Giants	NE -7	38-20 NE
Kansas City Chiefs	Denver Broncos	DEN -7	24-17 DEN
Arizona Cardinals	Seattle Seahawks	SEA -3	23-21 SEA
Houston Texans	Cincinnati Bengals	CIN -12	27-13 CIN

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets

Gary Wiepert/Associated Press

The league's wild-card wasteland won't receive clarity anytime soon, but Thursday night's division showdown adds another layer to the brewing AFC playoff picture.

It's easy to talk about Buffalo Bills head coach Rex Ryan returning to his old stomping grounds to face the New York Jets. The brash leader begged for the spotlight with his trolling, yet eerily disturbing choice for team captain. If not for his need for attention, everyone would instead talk about a healthy Bills offense ready to pounce on a reeling Jets defense.

In his first game since Week 5, quarterback Tyrod Taylor completed 11 of his 12 passes for 181 yards, almost all to Sammy Watkins. Playing together for the first time since Week 3, LeSean McCoy and Karlos Williams each exceeded 100 yards rushing and combined for three touchdowns.

Buffalo showed what it can do at full capacity, dropping 33 points on the Miami Dolphins. Yet according to NFL Network's Albert Breer, the team's offensive headliners aren't out of the clear just yet:

If McCoy can't suit up, expect a full dosage of Williams, who is averaging 6.6 yards per carry with six touchdowns. ESPN Stats & Info noted his remarkable production when on the field:

Two weeks ago, Buffalo wouldn't have stood a chance against the Jets, especially with a hobbled Watkins combating star cornerback Darrelle Revis. In the past two weeks, however, New York has relinquished 714 combined passing yards to the Oakland Raiders and Jacksonville Jaguars. 

Chris Ivory versus the Bills' No. 6 rushing defense would have looked like a battle of strengths before the Jets running back turned 23 carries into 26 yards against Jacksonville. Suddenly, it's up to Ryan Fitzpatrick to ride Brandon Marshall and Eric Decker to victory.

Back in September, the Bills emerged as a popular playoff pick. They fell off the map without Taylor, but look for them to vault right back into the discussion on Thursday night.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Baltimore Ravens

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

They're both 2-6, but the Baltimore Ravens are the rightful favorite. Aside from owning home-field advantage, they haven't lost a game by more than eight points. The Jaguars, meanwhile, remain the Jaguars, sporting the league's fourth-worst point differential (-65).

In all fairness, a 51-17 shellacking by the New England Patriots torpedoed their margin. They're a long way back from relevancy, but the Jaguars carry an intriguing offense registering 23 yards fewer than the Ravens.

After years of losing, the AFC South's punching bag wields two explosive wide receivers in Allen Hurns and Allen Robinson. During his second season, Hurns has scored touchdowns in six consecutive games, averaging 79.4 yards per bout. 

Robinson announced his superstar ascension against the Jets, compiling 121 yards against Revis. Since getting stymied by Josh Norman to open the season, the 22-year-old receiver is averaging 97.1 yards per game with six touchdowns.

"I think it’s only going to further his development as a player and further our chemistry and trust with each other if he goes and makes plays like that on a player like Revis," quarterback Blake Bortles told ESPN.com's Mike DiRocco. "I’ll keep throwing it to him."

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Fresh off scorching Revis and Antonio Cromartie, Robinson and Hurns will ravage Baltimore's No. 29 defense, which allows 8.4 yards per attempt and a 67.0 completion percentage. On the other side, don't assume Joe Flacco will light up the Jaguars at home.

Jacksonville has relinquished an NFL-high 29.4 points per contest, but its No. 18 defense has showed quiet progress. The Ravens will probably need 30 points, which will prove tough without the injured Steve Smith Sr. Without Smith, who went down with 46 catches and 670 yards, Kamar Aiken leads the team with 333 receiving yards.

In a messy, high-scoring game going down to the wire, the Jaguars will pick up their first road victory of 2015 if they can avoid another turnover barrage.