Fact or Fiction on All of MLB Offseason Week 1's Free-Agency, Trade Rumors
Ballparks around the majors might be empty right now, but baseball's second season has officially begun.
The Hot Stove League is underway, and teams have wasted little time to get the wheeling and dealing underway, with a handful of trades already completed. But the rumor mill continues to pick up speed as chatter and speculation surrounding potential free-agent destinations and more significant trades picks up.
Is a high-profile free agent going to return to where his career began? Will a defensive wizard be wielding his mighty glove for a new team? Can a team trade away multiple pieces of its outfield and actually improve?
We'll tackle all of that and more in this week's edition of "Fact or Fiction."
Fact: The Yankees Are Going to Trade at Least One Outfielder
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Don't chisel it in stone just yet, but it's probably safe to assume that Jacoby Ellsbury and Aaron Hicks will be part of the New York Yankees outfield mix in 2016. But who joins them on the Opening Day roster is anyone's guess.
A deal involving Brett Gardner has been discussed with Seattle, according to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, while CBS Sports' Jon Heyman suggests the Cubs, Mets, Orioles and Royals as potential landing spots for the speedy All-Star.
What about Carlos Beltran? His switch-hitting ability and expiring contract could be enticing for a team that's looking for a stopgap option. And it goes without saying that teams would line up to get their hands on top prospect Aaron Judge, who is probably as close to an untouchable position player as the team has.
By moving Gardner (and/or Beltran), the Yankees give themselves some flexibility and options in the outfield. Youngsters like Judge, Slade Heathcott and Mason Williams could get a shot at an everyday spot, or the team could look to add a big outfield bat via free agency, like Jason Heyward or Yoenis Cespedes.
Changes are coming to the Yankee Stadium outfield—it's only a question of how widespread they'll be.
Fiction: Brandon Phillips Will Accept a Trade
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Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal broke the news about a potential deal between Cincinnati and Arizona that would send Brandon Phillips to the Diamondbacks, but also made a very important point—it's probably never going to get past the discussion phase.
"Securing his approval likely would be difficult; Phillips is comfortable in Cincinnati and one of the most popular Reds," Rosenthal wrote. "Teams sometimes offer financial inducements such as contract extensions to persuade players to waive no-trade rights, but the D-backs might not want to do that for Phillips, who is 34."
He's not referring to Phillips' limited no-trade clause, which allows him to block trades to 10 teams each year. No, Phillips has 10-and-5 veto power, a result of having played for 10 years, the last five with the same team.
Signed through 2017, Phillips isn't going to agree to uproot his family and leave behind everything he's worked toward in Cincinnati without some assurance that he's going to be in his new destination for a while. That assurance isn't coming, which means Phillips isn't going.
Fact: Jeff Samardzija Could Wind Up Back in Chicago
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Jeff Samardzija has spent the bulk of his career in Chicago, so it would make sense that the 30-year-old right-hander would like to stay in familiar territory. But if he does, it won't be with the White Sox, the team he played for in 2015. It'd be with the Cubs, the club he began his career with.
The upstart club is known to be on the hunt for rotation upgrades and still likes "The Shark," according to CBS Sports' Jon Heyman, who opines that the five-year, $85 million extension offer Samardzija turned down in 2014 could be enough to bring him back to Wrigley Field this winter.
Of course, the Cubs won't be the only team in pursuit of Samardzija, and it only takes one team that's willing to offer more money for the idea of a reunion to disappear. But until that happens, Samardzija taking his talents back to the Windy City's North Side remains a distinct possibility.
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Fiction: The Braves Are Going to Trade Andrelton Simmons
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ESPN's Jonah Keri broke the news that Atlanta was discussing a deal involving Andrelton Simmons with a team in the National League West, while Joel Sherman of the New York Post tweets that the Angels, Dodgers and Padres have all expressed interest.
While it's understandable why teams would be interested in the 26-year-old, we should be cautious in taking any of this to mean the Braves are actually going to have a new shortstop in 2016.
He's signed to a reasonable deal that pays him roughly $54 million through his age-30 season in 2020, is better offensively than his reputation indicates (his 82 wRC+ ranked 11th among 20 qualified shortstops in 2015) and offers elite defense at a premium position.
Those are the very reasons why the Braves will ultimately decide that Simmons isn't going anywhere, especially when you consider how important having a premier defender playing behind a relatively young, inexperienced rotation is.
Fact: The Indians Are Going to Trade a Pitcher
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Cleveland was expected to trade one of its young, controllable starters for a bat before learning that All-Star left fielder Michael Brantley could miss the start of the regular season after undergoing right shoulder surgery, according to Cleveland.com's .
With Brantley on the shelf, it's not a question of if they'll make a deal, but when. So it comes as no surprise to see CBS Sports' Jon Heyman report that the Indians have been discussing potential deals for both Carlos Carrasco and Danny Salazar with a number of teams.
I proposed a two-for-one swap with Miami earlier this week, which would send Carrasco to the Marlins in exchange for outfielder Marcell Ozuna and reliever Mike Dunn. There are no shortage of potential landing spots for either pitcher.
Even with a deep crop of free-agent starters available, the Indians are in an enviable position. Carrasco and Salazar are both under team control at reasonable salaries for the foreseeable future, which could be more attractive to potential suitors than handing out a lucrative deal to a free agent.
They can simply solicit offers from interested parties and accept the one they like best.
Fact: Aroldis Chapman Will Be the First All-Star Closer to Be Traded
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As Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer recently noted, there's a plethora of quality relief options available to teams this offseason, both as free agents and via trade. It's a list full of current and former All-Stars, one that since publication has grown to include Andrew Miller and Mark Melancon.
But the prize of the group has always been Cincinnati's flame-throwing southpaw, Aroldis Chapman. And with the Reds finally embracing a full rebuild, per the Cincinnati Enquirer's C. Trent Rosecrans, it's a near certainty that Chapman will be pitching elsewhere in 2016.
Joel Sherman of the New York Post believes that Chapman will be the first piece of the puzzle in Cincinnati that gets traded away, and you can bet that the other teams that have made their own late-inning relievers available will be waiting to see what return the Reds get before making their own deals.
Once Chapman is dealt, the gates will open and a flurry of activity will ensue.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs. All contract information courtesy of Cot's Contracts (via Baseball Prospectus).
Hit me up on Twitter to talk all things baseball: @RickWeinerBR.
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