B/R MLB Offseason 100: The Top 15 Relief Pitchers Available
After getting started with a look at the top starting pitchers available this winter, the B/R MLB Offseason 100 will now turn its attention to the guys who live in the bullpen.
We're going to consider the 15 most desirable relief pitchers available on the free agent and trade markets. And whereas we evaluated starting pitchers with a scoring system that added up to 100 possible points, for relievers we'll use a system that only adds up to 85 possible points.
- Talent Outlook: Out of 60. The idea is to look at their skills going forward, how guys have performed recently and how they've gone about doing it. Think of a score of 30 out of 60 as a league-average pitcher, with 60 out of 60 essentially being Wade Davis.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 15. This projects how durable guys are going to be based on their past workloads and injury histories. Think of 15 out of 15 as no concern whatsoever, whereas seven or eight out of 15 says a healthy future is a toss-up.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. Here we ponder what kind of contracts or trade packages guys are going to demand and determine whether they could justify a potential pact. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero out of 10 being a megabust and 10 out of 10 being a megasteal.
In the event of ties, the nod will be given to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
15. Shawn Kelley, RHP, Free Agent
1 of 15
Talent Outlook
A mediocre reliever with the Yankees in 2013 and 2014, Shawn Kelley turned into a good one with the Padres in 2015. He posted a 2.45 ERA and a 4.20 K/BB ratio, his best since first breaking into the league back in 2009. As a bonus, he finished with a career-best pop-up rate (12.8 IFFB%).
Kelley showed with an 11.8 K/9 rate in pinstripes that he had the stuff to miss bats. The difference for him in San Diego was that he got more consistent finding the strike zone, resulting in less of a high-wire act when he took the ball. The big catch is that he remains vulnerable against left-handed batters. That makes him more of a righty specialist than a true shutdown reliever.
Durability Outlook
Kelley has topped 50 appearances and 50 innings in each of the last three seasons, which will do fine for consistency as far as relievers go.
Kelley does have some red flags, though. He dealt with serious elbow trouble in 2010 and 2011, hence why the Padres were holding their breath when his elbow started barking late in 2015. And if he continues to insist on being a slider-first pitcher, the 31-year-old's elbow may not leave him alone.
Value Outlook
There's a possibility that Kelley will get looks as a closer candidate on the open market, but he's more likely to be viewed as a setup man who's best used in platoon situations. But as Sergio Romo's two-year, $15 million contract can vouch, even guys like that can find solid multi-year deals.
Whatever the case, Kelley is due to make more than the $2.84 million he earned in 2015. Given his skill set and questionable durability, he may end up being overpaid.
Total
14. Mark Lowe, RHP, Free Agent
2 of 15
Talent Outlook
Mark Lowe looked like he was on his way out of baseball for a while there, but he reappeared to post a 1.96 ERA in 57 appearances in 2015. And it was legit, too, as he posted an excellent 5.08 K/BB that came mainly from his striking out exactly 10.0 batters per nine innings.
The major ingredient in Lowe's resurgence was his fastball velocity getting back into the mid-90s. Between that and his increased slider usage, it makes sense that he was so overpowering, especially against right-handed batters. He's at least a solid setup man and a good righty specialist.
Durability Outlook
Lowe has dealt with quite a few injuries through the years, which explains why he's made over 60 appearances just once in a big league career that spans 10 seasons. And at 32, he's getting up there in baseball years.
On the bright side, whoever considers Lowe this winter will only be looking to pick him up on a short-term deal. He doesn't have to try to be durable for very long.
Value Outlook
After coming back from the dead and proving himself as an effective reliever in 2015, Lowe may have it in mind to be this winter's Zach Duke. But given that Duke was a year younger when he got his three-year, $15 million contract last offseason, the best Lowe can do is probably two years and $10 million.
Lowe living up to a deal like that would require him to sustain his 2015 velocity spike while avoiding run-ins with the injury bug. That may be asking a lot.
Total
13. Antonio Bastardo, LHP, Free Agent
3 of 15
Talent Outlook
Antonio Bastardo has been one of the league's more reliable lefty relievers in recent years. Since 2011, he owns a 3.28 ERA and has racked up an 11.3 K/9. His forte has been getting left-handed batters out, holding them to a sub-.200 average in each of the last five seasons.
With Bastardo, one catch is that he doesn't offer much command. His career walks per nine innings is an ugly 4.3. But his fastball-slider combination is nasty enough to make up for that—especially these days, as he's coming off a velocity bump. If he can hold that, his reliability as a lefty killer should last.
Durability Outlook
With the lone exception being 2013, a year in which he was hit with a 50-game suspension for performance-enhancing drug use, Bastardo has made at least 60 appearances in four of the last five seasons. But while that sounds like a big workload, he's pitched over 60 innings just once in that span.
That highlights how Bastardo isn't your typical late-inning reliever. He's not so much a guy who's guaranteed a full inning as he is a one whom managers can use to play the matchup game. As a result, his 30-year-old left arm is relatively well-preserved and should stay that way.
Value Outlook
Though Bastardo is mainly good for getting lefties out, he's not a true left-handed specialist. That will help his market, perhaps to a point where he'll be able to find a multiyear deal with a total worth over eight figures.
That can be a scary notion where relievers are concerned, but it's hard to imagine a multiyear deal for Bastardo being worth more than $15 million. He'll thus be making a mid-range salary every year, which isn't bad for a solid middle reliever.
Total
12. Tony Sipp, LHP, Free Agent
4 of 15
Talent Outlook
Tony Sipp has had an up-and-down career, but he's heading into free agency coming off an up year. He posted a career-best 1.99 ERA in 2015, mainly because he established some command (career-low 2.5 BB/9) to go with his ability to miss bats (10.3 K/9).
This had to do with Sipp's improved ability to get hitters to chase, with a related story being increased use of his splitter. That makes him more of a complete pitcher, with a bonus being that he's been equally effective against lefties and righties. That's a good look for him as he heads for his age-32 season.
Durability Outlook
Sipp has undergone Tommy John surgery, but that was all the way back in 2008. In six seasons since 2010, he's made at least 50 appearances every year while topping 60 innings only twice.
As such, his arm is relatively well-preserved compared to quite a few other relievers his age. That is good, because he has the kind of high-effort delivery that's typical of relievers, and his in particular looks like it puts a bit of strain on his shoulder.
Value Outlook
Sipp is set to cash in on his strong 2015 performance but presumably not to an absurd degree. A good guess is that he finds a two- or three-year deal somewhere worth at most $5 million per year.
A pact like that wouldn't be buying a hidden gem of a reliever, but it would still likely prove to be money well spent.
Total
11. Ryan Madson, RHP, Free Agent
5 of 15
Talent Outlook
After missing three years trying to come back from Tommy John surgery (2012-14), Ryan Madson returned with a vengeance in 2015. He posted a 2.13 ERA in 68 outings, complete with a 4.14 K/BB ratio and plenty of ground balls.
That Madson returned throwing his heat in the mid-90s is a very good sign, but what's equally important is that he continued to throw three different fastballs in addition to his changeup. He may be 35 years old, but he showed in 2015 that he can still pitch like his vintage self.
Durability Outlook
As noted above, Madson missed three years dealing with a particularly troublesome recovery from Tommy John surgery. After an ordeal like that, it's only natural to wonder if there will be any adverse affects from such a heavy workload—especially at his age.
If there's a bright side, it's that Madson has a relatively clean delivery that doesn't appear to put too much pressure on his arm. But even granting that, his age and recent history still loom large.
Value Outlook
It's not often that a guy falls off the radar for three years only to come back and pitch as well as Madson did in 2015. But if one had to wager a guess, it's that Madson will be looking to beat Pat Neshek's two-year, $12.5 million deal from last winter, both in terms of years and dollars.
That will be money well spent if Madson can do what he did in 2015 several more times. But at his age, that should be considered unlikely.
Total
10. Joakim Soria, RHP, Free Agent
6 of 15
Talent Outlook
Joakim Soria spent 2013 and 2014 trying to get his bearings after undergoing Tommy John surgery in 2012. He finally did in 2015, posting a 2.53 ERA in 72 appearances. He wasn't overpowering, striking out just 8.5 batters per nine innings, but he showed off strong command and was OK at managing contact.
Certainly, one thing that helped Soria make his comeback was a notable gain in fastball velocity. He actually threw harder on average in 2015 than he ever had before. With that being the case, though, it is concerning that he was just an OK strikeout artist. Whether he's true closer material is debatable.
Durability Outlook
Because of his Tommy John operation in 2012 and additional injury trouble in 2014, this past season was Soria's first full campaign since 2011.
As for whether Soria can keep it up with the heavy workload, there is the reality that he's no longer a young man at 31 years of age. But given that he has a cleaner delivery than many relievers, he shouldn't be considered entirely doomed to repeat his past injury issues.
Value Outlook
Between his history as a dominant closer and his strong return to form in 2015, it's a fair bet that Soria will be on the lookout for a deal reminiscent of the three-year, $18.5 million contract that Luke Gregerson found on the open market last year. Even if he doesn't get exactly that, he won't come cheap.
Soria's track record says he shouldn't. His current reality as a less than dominant reliever, however, suggests otherwise.
Total
9. Tyler Clippard, RHP, Free Agent
7 of 15
Talent Outlook
Though his effectiveness hasn't been entirely consistent, Tyler Clippard has generally been a good late-inning reliever over the last six years. He's racked up a 2.67 ERA while striking out over 10 batters per nine innings in that span, and he attracts additional easy outs by being a pop-up specialist.
Looking ahead, it's not the best sign that Clippard's velocity has slipped from its 2010-2013 peak. But his fastball still has a considerable amount of rise, making it a good pitch to pair with his diving changeup. In the life of a short-term deal, the 30-year-old righty should remain an effective reliever.
Durability Outlook
Clippard's injury track record is about as clean as can be, which indeed explains how he's averaged over 70 appearances and 70 innings pitched per season over the last six years. In fact, he's been the hardest-working reliever in MLB.
But while that looks good on Clippard's track record, it does make one wonder how much longer his durability can last. Any team that signs him for multiple years will have to consider that he might break down in the near future.
Value Outlook
Odds are Clippard won't be in the market for closer money this winter, but he has the goods to pursue a Luke Gregerson-esque contract of three years and around $20 million. And because he won't be tied to draft-pick compensation—the trade that sent him from Oakland to New York barred him from receiving a qualifying offer—he could actually get a deal like that.
Money like that would buy a solid late-inning reliever. But an elite late-inning reliever? Eh, maybe not.
Total
8. Trevor Cahill, RHP, Free Agent
8 of 15
Talent Outlook
Trevor Cahill looked like he was on his way out of baseball for a while there, but he looked pretty darn good in a relief role with the Cubs toward the end of 2015. Though it came in just 11 outings, he struck out 22 batters in 17 innings and got ground balls on better than 60 percent of the balls in play off him.
Because Cahill has always been a strong ground-ball pitcher, that part isn't surprising. As for his sudden strikeout ability, that can happen when you go from averaging 90.9 mph as a starter to 92.7 as a reliever. It appears Cahill's stuff plays up in a relief role. He looks like a good target for a bargain buy.
Durability Outlook
Cahill dealt with a series of injuries back in 2013, but his limited workload since then has had more to do with his general ineffectiveness.
As such, we can look on the bright side and say his recent struggles have helped preserve his arm. And said arm, by the way, is still only 27 years old. For a guy who's only likely to be signed on a short-term deal, he's a strong bet to be durable going forward.
Value Outlook
Though Cahill came on strong toward the end of the year, teams probably learned a good lesson from watching what happened to the big contract Brian Wilson signed coming off a small-sample-size success story in 2013. In all likelihood, Cahill is only going to be in the market for a one-year "prove it" deal.
For a guy who looks like he's actually cut out for a relief role, such a contract could be a steal for potential suitors.
Total
7. Joaquin Benoit, RHP, Trade
9 of 15
Rumor Source: Buster Olney of ESPN.com
Talent Outlook
Though Benoit has gone about it somewhat under the radar, he's established himself as one of baseball's better relievers in recent seasons. He owns a 1.98 over the last three seasons, in which he's racked up a solid 3.39 K/BB ratio and held opposing hitters to just a .532 OPS.
Benoit isn't perfect, of course. Given that he now throws his heat less than half the time, his control can only be so good. Also, his strikeout rate fluctuates more than one would prefer. But the 38-year-old's control is hardly bad, and he's still throwing 94-95 with a splitter and slider that are both solid swing-and-miss offerings. He thus has the goods to remain effective in the final year of his contract.
Durability Outlook
Benoit may be 38 years old, but he's been a solid workhorse in recent years. In five of the last six seasons, he's made at least 60 appearances and pitched at least 60 innings.
However, it's hard to take much for granted with a guy who's pushing 40 and who has a lot of miles on his body. There's also the fact that the injury bug has had a tendency to go for Benoit's shoulder throughout his career. Given his age and his mileage, there's a fair chance that could happen again.
Value Outlook
Olney reports that Benoit is available in trade talks "right now." The Padres could trade him for prospects if they wanted to. But if they're more interested in trying once again to contend in 2016, here's assuming they'd prefer to deal Benoit for an established major leaguer as part of an upside play, a la what the Nationals did when they traded Tyler Clippard for Yunel Escobar last winter.
Because Benoit does have pretty good trade value, however, it's probably unlikely that whoever trades for him would be able to get the Padres to eat some of his $8 million salary. In the end, he's not going to come especially cheap.
Total
6. Jonathan Papelbon, RHP, Trade
10 of 15
Rumor Source: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports
Talent Outlook
Though the ending of Jonathan Papelbon's 2015 season was discouraging in more ways than one, it shouldn't be lost on anyone that he's been about as effective as his vintage self over the last two seasons. He's racked up a 2.08 ERA and a 4.41 K/BB ratio.
That Papelbon has done this despite averaging under 92 mph on his fastball raises some suspicion, but he deserves credit for how he's now downplaying his modest velocity with location and sequencing. He's not immune to damage, but he's adjusted well to what's clearly the twilight of his career.
Durability Outlook
Papelbon is nearly 35 years old with 11 big league seasons under his belt, but he has yet to spend even a single day on the disabled list. That's partially owed to him being well-built at 6'4" and 225 pounds, and it has to do with how his mechanics are more efficient than many relievers' motions.
Mind you, Papelbon's age makes it hard not to worry about his eventual breakdown. But since trading for him wouldn't require a long-term commitment—Papelbon is only under contract through 2016—the worry shouldn't be big enough to scare anyone off.
Value Outlook
Papelbon is a good reliever, but he's also in his mid-30s and has declining stuff, an $11 million salary and all sorts of baggage stemming from his recent dugout antics. The Nationals will be lucky if they even find a taker for him, much less get anything of value for him.
As such, any team brave enough to swing a trade for Papelbon could find itself getting a pretty good deal.
Total
5. Drew Storen, RHP, Trade
11 of 15
Rumor Source: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports
Talent Outlook
It looks bad that Drew Storen finished 2015 with a pedestrian 3.44 ERA. But then you remember that he had a 1.12 ERA in 2014 and a 1.52 ERA as late as August 6 in 2015. And he was actually more overpowering in 2015, upping his K/9 from 7.3 to 11.0 while continuing to manage contact well.
All that was no accident. Storen operated with his best velocity since 2012, and he dominated with a slider that gained a whole bunch of glove-side run. At 28 years old, he's very much in his prime as he heads toward his final year before free agency in 2016.
Durability Outlook
Storen hasn't been able to dodge the injury bug in his career, notably missing time recovering from elbow surgery in 2012 and with a broken thumb at the end of 2015, the gift of a misguided locker punch. Hence why he's made it to 60 appearances just twice in the last four seasons.
Still, it helps that Storen is still only 28 years old. It also helps that he has cleaner mechanics than many of his reliever brethren. He's thus a solid bet to stay healthy in his final year of club control in 2016.
Value Outlook
After the Nationals alienated Storen by demoting him following their July deadline trade for Jonathan Papelbon over the summer, it's really no secret that they pretty much need to deal Storen this winter. That won't help their leverage in trade talks and could very well result in Storen's coming at a discounted rate.
So, interested parties should step on up. Trading for Storen could be a chance to deal for one of baseball's better relievers—and for a bargain price to boot.
Total
4. Darren O'Day, RHP, Free Agent
12 of 15
Talent Outlook
Darren O'Day has been a quality reliever his whole career, but he's become elite in the last two seasons. In racking up a 1.61 ERA during that span, he's posted a 4.70 K/BB and become impossible to touch up for hard contact. And for a guy with a reputation as a right-handed specialist, he's now quite good at getting lefty batters out.
Mind you, O'Day still doesn't have overpowering stuff. But becoming more confident in his four-seamer allows him to give hitters different looks, and he can combine that sequencing with pinpoint command to make for a truly tough matchup. He's looking like the best reliever available on the free-agent market.
Durability Outlook
Injuries wrecked O'Day's 2011 season, as he missed a good chunk of the year with hip and shoulder problems. In four seasons since then, however, he's been good for at least 68 appearances and 60 innings every year.
Mind you, at 33 years of age, O'Day is no longer a young player. And because his funky delivery seemingly puts quite a bit of strain on his elbow, you do have to wonder how he would hold up in a multiyear deal.
Value Outlook
Despite his recent stretch of dominance, O'Day did not receive a qualifying offer from Baltimore. He's good but not $15.8 million worth of good. But that should work out for him. Not being tied to draft-pick compensation will make it easier for O'Day to find a multiyear deal, with something in the range of three years and $25 million being within the realm of possibility.
He'll be expensive, all right. But considering how good O'Day has proved himself to be, he is indeed worthy of being paid like a shutdown late-inning reliever.
Total
3. Ken Giles, RHP, Trade
13 of 15
Speculation Source: Jim Salisbury of CSN Philly
Talent Outlook
After debuting to the tune of a 1.18 ERA and 5.82 K/BB in 2014, Ken Giles regressed in 2015. Instead of being brilliant, he was merely outstanding in posting a 1.80 ERA and a 3.48 K/BB ratio. He didn't have the finest control in posting a 3.2 BB/9, but he continued to overwhelm hitters in posting an 11.2 K/9.
To that end, it is slightly concerning that Giles was inconsistent with his fastball velocity in 2015, which helped cause a diminished whiff rate on the pitch. But there's nothing wrong with an average fastball of 96.5 miles per hour. And at 25 years old, Giles' velocity should be sticking around for a while still. Coupled with his nasty slider, he has what he needs to be a shutdown reliever for years to come.
Durability Outlook
Before Giles arrived in The Show in 2014, he battled through an injury-plagued season in the minor leagues in 2013. Oblique trouble cost him a good portion of the campaign.
Since then, however, the injury bug has left Giles alone. And at 25 with only 113 major league appearances in two seasons under his belt, it'll be a few years before his workload becomes a concern. In the five seasons of club control he has left, he's as good a bet as anyone to stay on the field.
Value Outlook
The idea of the Phillies dealing Giles seems unlikely. He's very young and very talented, and he won't hit free agency until after 2020. For a rebuilding team like the Phillies, he's a valuable asset. And yet, Salisbury wrote that there "are signs that the Phillies brass has at least kicked this idea around."
If they have, it's presumably because Giles's trade value is especially high in relation to the weak market for free agent relievers. For him alone, they may be able to acquire a couple of talented prospects. Whatever the case, the price for Giles is understandably high. But if he has five more years like either of his first two in him, he could actually be worth the price.
Total
2. Aroldis Chapman, LHP, Trade
14 of 15
Speculation Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Following another dominant season in 2015, Aroldis Chapman now has a 1.90 ERA and an absurd 16.1 K/9 since becoming a full-time closer in 2012. What's responsible for all this is no secret. He may not always know where the ball is going, but you don't need to when you're baseball's hardest thrower over the last three years.
That 98.8 average fastball velocity probably isn't going away anytime soon. Chapman is only going into his age-28 season, after all, and his velocity is better now than it was in his first couple of full campaigns. The day will come when he's no longer throwing triple digits but very likely not before he hits free agency next winter.
Durability Outlook
Chapman missed a chunk of time with a bad shoulder in 2011. But since then, the only notable injury issue he's dealt with involved a line drive to the face in early 2014. His arm and shoulder have generally been fine.
To be sure, there is some concern that good health could abandon Chapman without much warning. He may have a relatively clean injury history, but his high velocity and high-effort delivery make him look like an arm injury waiting to happen. His durability probably isn't 100 percent guaranteed.
Value Outlook
Chapman may only have one year of club control left, but it's no surprise that Cafardo's report says it would take a "boatload of prospects" to acquire the reliever, who "could very well be available." The Reds are rebuilding, after all, and Chapman is without a doubt one of the game's top relievers.
It's hard to say exactly what kind of haul Chapman could bring to Cincinnati. But knowing that he's a mere relief pitcher who will be a one-year rental, any large trade package would have a high chance of proving to be too large for a potential buyer.
Total
1. Craig Kimbrel, RHP, Trade
15 of 15
Speculation Source: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports
Talent Outlook
After posting sub-2.00 ERAs each year between 2012 and 2014, the 2.58 ERA Craig Kimbrel finished 2015 with looks disappointing. But apart from that, he was his same old self. He struck out 13.2 batters per nine innings, and the six home runs he gave up hide how he was actually solid at limiting hard contact.
In a related story, Kimbrel's stuff is just fine. His velocity is actually still trending upward, and his curveball is still an outstanding swing-and-miss pitch. Trading for him would mean dealing for a 27-year-old reliever who's very much in his prime and controllable for three more seasons.
Durability Outlook
Apart from some minor shoulder soreness toward the beginning of 2014, Kimbrel has been a picture of health in his big league career. Hence how he's been able to make at least 60 appearances in each of the last five seasons.
If there's a cause for concern, it has to do with how Kimbrel is a very hard thrower with a high-effort delivery that's typical of relief pitchers. It's not hard to imagine his durability taking a hit sometime in the next three years.
Value Outlook
Whereas the Braves seemed happy to dump Kimbrel's contract when they dealt him to the Padres last spring, San Diego is going to be more focused on adding talent if it trades him this winter, which could happen "if the Padres go the rebuild route," per Heyman. And because he's controllable for three more years, they can set his price tag pretty high.
On the bright side, paying a big price for Kimbrel could mean getting one of the game's top relievers for as many as three more years (his contract holds a club option in 2018). On the not-so-bright-side, it would mean shelling out a hefty package for a guy who's only going to pitch around 60 innings a year.
