B/R MLB Offseason 100: The Top 25 Starting Pitchers Available
Now that the World Series and, with it, the 2015 Major League Baseball season have been put to bed, it's time for dozens upon dozens of players to pack their bags and get ready to move.
Where these players will be moving is a job for a crystal ball. But if all you want is to know which of them are this offseason's most desirable free-agent and trade targets pulled from rumors and/or plausible speculation, we can help with that.
Starting with the top 25 starting pitchers, we're here to rank the top 100 players available this winter based on their attractiveness to clubs.
As for how we went about doing the ranking, we subjected players to the following scoring system:
- Talent Outlook: Out of 70. The idea is to look at their skills going forward, how guys have performed recently and how they've gone about doing it. Think of a score of 35 out of 70 as a league-average pitcher, with 70 out of 70 essentially being Clayton Kershaw.
- Durability Outlook: Out of 20. This is a projection of how durable guys are going to be based on their past workloads and injury histories. Think of 20 out of 20 as no concern whatsoever, whereas 10 out of 20 says a healthy future is a toss-up. Also, we'll keep things fair by only allowing pitchers who will require short-term commitments a maximum of 15 points.
- Value Outlook: Out of 10. We pondered what kind of contracts or trade packages guys are going to command and determined whether they could justify it. Think of five out of 10 as a fair deal, with zero out of 10 being a megabust and 10 out of 10 being a megasteal.
Conveniently, the number of possible points add up to 100. In the event of ties, the nod goes to the player we'd rather sign or trade for.
Along the way, you'll find plenty of links to relevant data at Baseball-Reference, FanGraphs, Brooks Baseball, Baseball Prospectus and Baseball Savant.
Step into the box whenever you're ready.
25. Doug Fister, RHP, Free Agent
1 of 25
Talent Outlook
Doug Fister was one of the league's better starters between 2011 and 2014, posting a 3.11 ERA in 750.2 innings. But it all fell apart in 2015. He managed just a 4.19 ERA while serving up an ugly .796 OPS, and he eventually lost his spot in Washington's rotation.
Granted, this makes Fister look like a classic reclamation project. But he does come with a buyer-beware label all the same. He'll be 32 in February, and recent seasons have seen him lose both fastball velocity and his once-excellent ability to induce ground balls. Rather being than an outlier, his 2015 season may be a warning.
Durability Outlook
Another red flag is his lack of durability in recent years. Fister's made more than 30 starts just once in the last four seasons, missing time with an intercostal strain, a lat strain and forearm tightness.
None of that sounds good for a pitcher who is safely on the wrong side of 30. Even if Fister takes a one-year deal to rebuild his value this winter, durability will be no sure thing.
Value Outlook
After the year he just had, it's unlikely that the Nationals will extend the $15.8 million qualifying offer to Fister by Friday's 5 p.m. ET deadline. Instead, he's likely to be in the market for a one-year contract worth no more than the $11.4 million salary he earned in 2015.
A deal like that would sound fair for a guy who was one of baseball's best starters as recently as 2014. But considering that Fister's sudden decline didn't exactly come from bad luck, it would be hard to call such a contract a steal.
Total
24. Mat Latos, RHP, Free Agent
2 of 25
Talent Outlook
Mat Latos struggled more in 2014 than his 3.25 ERA indicated, and he hit bottom with a 4.95 ERA in 2015. Injuries have flattened his stuff and have made his command highly inconsistent. In turn, his ability to miss bats and avoid hard contact hasn't been the same.
If there's a bright side, it's that Latos at least managed to regain some velocity in 2015. Given that he's only headed for his age-28 season, that allows for at least a shred of hope that he could be a worthwhile reclamation project on a cheap one-year deal.
Durability Outlook
As noted above, injuries have had a big hand in derailing Latos' career. Knee and elbow injuries held him back in 2014, and his knee also acted up in 2015. As a result, he's made only 40 appearances and pitched only 218.2 innings over the last two seasons.
Fortunately, Latos' youth allows for some hope that he can put these issues behind him. However, two injury-marred years are significantly more concerning than one such campaign. Even if he signs a one-year deal, Latos' health may be no sure thing.
Value Outlook
After a season like the one Latos just had, it will behoove him to go looking for a one-year deal that would hopefully allow him to rebuild his value for next winter. And given the circumstances, such a pact would probably require him to take a pay cut from the $9.4 million he made in 2015.
A deal like that would have few guarantees of paying off. But for a reclamation project like Latos, it's hardly outrageous.
Total
23. J.A. Happ, LHP, Free Agent
3 of 25
Talent Outlook
Through 21 appearances with the Seattle Mariners in 2015, J.A. Happ lived up to his track record with a mediocre 4.64 ERA. But then he posted a 1.85 ERA in 11 starts for the Pittsburgh Pirates, where he got all sorts of confidence in his fastball and, not so coincidentally, threw a whole bunch of strikes.
Now, you don't want to read too much into Happ's dominance as a Pirate. Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs pointed out that it was partially influenced by favorable opposition. But if he maintains his extremely fastball-heavy and strike-happy approach, he could at least carry on as a solid innings-eater.
Durability Outlook
Well, we can put it this way: 2015 was Happ's age-32 season, and it was the first time he'd ever made more than 30 starts while crossing even so many as 170 innings.
Some of this has to do with how he hasn't been very reliable as a starter, but Happ has also had his share of injury troubles during his career. Between that and his unimpressive track record as a workhorse, his durability could be lacking during what may well be a multiyear deal.
Value Outlook
Whether he would have gotten one is a good question, but we know that the July trade that sent Happ from Seattle to Pittsburgh blocked him from receiving a $15.8 million qualifying offer. Given that and his strong finish, it wouldn't be surprising to see him land a two- or three-year deal worth around $10 million per season.
To this end, the phrase "buyer beware" would definitely apply. Happ may have finished 2015 on a strong note, but it's hard to say for sure that his days as a below-average starter are behind him.
Total
22. Bartolo Colon, RHP, Free Agent
4 of 25
Talent Outlook
Bartolo Colon has continued to eat innings as a Met, racking up 397 in two seasons. He's also continued to be one of the league's most aggressive strike-throwers, which is what you'd expect from a guy who throws over 80 percent fastballs. If nothing else, Colon is efficient.
However, Colon's 4.13 ERA over the last two seasons is a reminder that he's also vulnerable. As his 47 homers and .728 OPS allowed can vouch, throwing so many fastballs in the zone doesn't work so well once hitters get the gist. He may be a workhorse, but he's also a below-average pitcher.
Durability Outlook
Colon's two years in New York were his age-41 and age-42 seasons, yet he still managed to top 30 starts and 190 innings in both of them. Overall, it's been years since he last dealt with a major injury. Given that he's probably only in line for a one-year deal, this bodes well.
Still, history is working against a continuation of Colon's recent pattern again in 2016. It will be his age-43 season, and Baseball-Reference.com's Play Index tells us that only four pitchers have ever topped 30 starts and 190 innings at the age of 43.
Value Outlook
Colon only made $11 million in what was just an OK campaign in 2015, so it's extremely unlikely that he'll be getting a qualifying offer from the Mets. Instead, chances are he'll be in the market for a one-year deal that will keep him in range of his 2015 salary.
A contract like that would buy innings, to be sure. And that's a good thing. But they likely wouldn't be particularly good innings, so it would only be a fair deal rather than a steal.
Total
21. Chris Young, RHP, Free Agent
5 of 25
Talent Outlook
After disappearing in 2013, Chris Young reappeared to post a solid 3.65 ERA in 2014. He followed that with a 3.06 ERA in 2015. If he's sent any kind of message over the last two years, it's that he knows how to make an extreme fly-ball style work as well or maybe even better than anyone else.
Mind you, this does seem to be too good to be true, knowing that Young works off a mid-80s fastball. But his 6'10" frame allows him to release the ball closer to home plate, which makes his velocity play up. His fastball also has quite a bit of rise, which helps keep his fly balls in the yard. Some advanced metrics suggest otherwise, but he looks no worse than an average pitcher.
Durability Outlook
This is where Young doesn't look so great. He hasn't made at least 30 starts in a season since back in 2007, as his right arm was wrecked by a series of shoulder injuries.
Granted, Young's shoulder has behaved in the last two seasons. There's also the reality that he's probably only in the market for a one-year deal. But at 36 years of age and with his injury track record in his wake, his days as a workhorse are likely well behind him.
Value Outlook
Despite his strong return to form last year, Young was forced to settle for a one-year deal worth less than $1 million last offseason. Due to his injury history and the limited appeal of his pitching style, odds are he'll probably be in the market for another cheap, one-year pact this winter.
Because he can only be counted on for so many innings, that sort of a contract wouldn't exactly be a mega-steal. But at this point, it's hard to deny Young's effectiveness when he does take the ball.
Total
20. Brett Anderson, LHP, Free Agent
6 of 25
Talent Outlook
The Dodgers gambled that Brett Anderson could be a productive pitcher if he stayed healthy in 2015, and it paid off. In posting a 3.69 ERA over 180.1 innings, he had by far his best and most productive season since he first broke into the league in 2009.
However, bear in mind that Anderson was really only a league-average pitcher in posting a 101 ERA+. And that's about the extent of what he can be. Anderson is elite at inducing ground balls, but he's not a particularly good command artist and is a downright poor strikeout artist.
Durability Outlook
Before Anderson topped 180 innings in 2015, he hadn't even topped 100 since 2010. That's what happens when you have a Tommy John operation followed by abdominal, foot, hand and back injuries.
The good news is that he will turn just 28 in February, but that's still quite an injury history to try to outrun. With Anderson likely in the running for a multiyear deal, prospective buyers must anticipate that he won't be healthy for the entirety of such a pact.
Value Outlook
Anderson deserves a multiyear deal based on his 2015 performance, but the Dodgers could throw a wrench into his immediate future by making him a qualifying offer. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, they're thinking of doing that.
Regardless, here's thinking Anderson won't do better than a three-year contract worth around $10 million per year. And even if he only accepts a one- or two-year deal, teams will still be paying solid money for a merely league-average starter.
Total
19. Ian Kennedy, RHP, Free Agent
7 of 25
Talent Outlook
After rebounding with a 3.63 ERA in 2014, Ian Kennedy careened in the other direction with a 4.28 ERA in 2015. At the heart of his struggles was a revived problem with home runs. He gave up 31 of them, and that habit largely overshadowed his strong walk rate (2.8 BB/9) and strikeout rate (9.3 K/9).
Considering his track record as a gopher magnet, whether Kennedy can correct that problem is iffy. But it's also hard to call the 30-year-old a lost cause. The velocity spike he enjoyed in 2014 lasted into 2015. That helps explain the strikeouts, and any pitcher who can keep those coming will get by OK.
Durability Outlook
Though Kennedy suffered an early-season hamstring injury and failed to make it to 170 innings in 2015, it ended up being his sixth straight campaign of at least 30 starts. That makes him a member of a surprisingly exclusive club.
Looking ahead, it's slightly concerning that Kennedy is now on the wrong side of 30, as he turns 31 in December. But his 1,234.2 career innings make him relatively well preserved for a pitcher his age, and his delivery really isn't as high-effort as all his moving parts make it look. Continued durability isn't assured, but it's a solid bet.
Value Outlook
Despite his pedestrian 2015 season, it's possible the Padres will make Kennedy a qualifying offer. If he were to reject it, being tied to draft-pick compensation may limit his market to three- or four-year offers at $10 million to $12 million per year.
Such a deal would be outstanding if Kennedy were to regain his 2014 form. But he was able to do that only because his home run problem abandoned him, and his career track record makes that look like an outlier. With that being the case, he seems likely to be badly overpaid.
Total
18. Mark Buehrle, LHP, Free Agent
8 of 25
Talent Outlook
Mark Buehrle logged 198.2 innings and posted a 3.81 ERA in 2015, thereby continuing his legacy as an above-average innings-eater. That he did all this with a fastball that averaged just 83.4 mph is a testament to how well he locates and uses his changeup to keep hitters off balance.
Looking ahead, the reality that Buehrle's talents have already passed the test of time makes it easier to imagine that he could indeed keep it up for one more year. And given his particular circumstances, just one more year of work ought to do it.
Durability Outlook
Before falling short by just four outs in 2015, Buehrle had logged at least 200 innings every year between 2001 and 2014. If that's not durability, then what is?
Mind you, Buehrle is not immune to pain. He had to get a cortisone shot in his shoulder this year and, as Doug Padilla of ESPN.com reported, has dealt with shoulder pain for much of his career. With his 37th birthday approaching in March, the end may be nearing for him.
Value Outlook
Though it would actually be a pay cut after he earned $20 million in 2015, it's highly unlikely that the Blue Jays will make Buehrle a $15.8 million qualifying offer. Though he is indeed probably only in the market for a one-year contract this winter, something more like $10 million to $12 million will be in the cards.
For a pitcher of his caliber, that's hardly an overpay. Money like that would be buying a solid innings-eater, which would be money well spent.
Total
17. Marco Estrada, RHP, Free Agent
9 of 25
Talent Outlook
After struggling in 2014, Marco Estrada rebounded in a big way in 2015. He posted a 3.13 ERA in 181.0 innings, a performance made all the more impressive by the reality that he was an extreme fly-ball pitcher who had half of his games at the power-friendly Rogers Centre.
But lest we rush to use the F word (you know, "fluke"), we should grant that Estrada is indeed a good pitcher. He has pretty good command, and he has a rising fastball and sinking changeup that complement each other well. Though he's an ideal fit for a big ballpark, he can be good anywhere.
Durability Outlook
Estrada missed a huge chunk of action with a bad shoulder back in 2010, but since then, he has only dealt with leg injuries. On a 32-year-old pitcher, those aren't as concerning.
Still, some skepticism is warranted. Estrada's 32 years qualify him as old by baseball standards, and it does stand out that he has yet to make over 30 starts in a season. Also, his high-effort delivery is one that won't help him age well. Lasting durability in a multiyear deal isn't quite guaranteed.
Value Outlook
Estrada is most certainly due to receive a qualifying offer at the end of the year, but word is that won't keep him from striking it rich in free agency. Per Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe, the expectation is that Estrada will find a four- or five-year deal worth $12 million to $15 million per season.
That's a lot of money for a guy who more than likely just had his peak performance in 2015. Factor in the lost draft pick, and it's a price that looks even bigger.
Total
16. Yovani Gallardo, RHP, Free Agent
10 of 25
Talent Outlook
Yovani Gallardo hit bottom when he posted a 4.18 ERA in 2013, but he has since rebounded with a 3.46 ERA in 376.2 innings over the last two seasons. His 6.4 strikeouts per nine innings in this span goes to show that he doesn't miss bats like he used to, but he can make up for that by being a decent contact manager.
That's a skill that should have a solid shelf life. Gallardo now has a much more diverse pitch mix than he used to. That and his style of playing with the strike zone make him a frustrating opponent to face. In so many words: He's become a capable finesse pitcher. That bodes well.
Durability Outlook
Gallardo has never been a big-time innings-eater, but he's been a good one for seven years now. Between 2009 and 2015, he's made at least 30 starts and logged at least 180 innings every year. Along the way, he's dealt with only minor injuries.
Looking ahead, though, there is a limit to how much anyone can bank on Gallardo's durability. He has nearly 1,500 career innings on his arm, and he's racked them up with something of a high-effort delivery. Over the life of a multiyear deal, he may run into some overdue trouble.
Value Outlook
Gallardo is likely to be among those who receive and reject a qualifying offer, so he'll hit the open market with ties to draft-pick compensation. Despite that, it will be surprising if he doesn't make like other midlevel pitchers in recent memory and find a four-year deal worth around $50 million.
While that would indeed be fair market value, that money would only be buying a solid innings-eater who's probably not as above-average as his 2015 performance makes him look.
Total
15. Hisashi Iwakuma, RHP, Free Agent
11 of 25
Talent Outlook
Hisashi Iwakuma peaked when he posted a 2.66 ERA back in 2013, but he's been solid in posting a 3.53 ERA over 308.2 innings across the last two seasons. Home runs have continued to plague him, but he's helped himself by maintaining his strong ground-ball habit while posting a downright excellent 6.31 strikeout-to-walk ratio.
The red flag is that the 34-year-old Japan native is slowly leaking velocity, but it's not an especially big warning sign. With superb command and an unpredictable pitch mix, Iwakuma has what he needs to age gracefully in a multiyear contract.
Durability Outlook
Durability has been an issue for Iwakuma in the last two seasons. He's made only 48 starts, missing time with a finger injury in 2014 and with a lat strain in 2015.
Certainly, it's hard to expect him to become more durable as he heads toward his age-35 season. Beyond his recent struggles, he has over 2,000 professional innings on his arm. In the life of a multiyear deal, his durability is probably a toss-up.
Value Outlook
Iwakuma is more than likely going to receive and reject a qualifying offer, but that could actually be neither here nor there where his market value is concerned. According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the "strong industry belief" is that Iwakuma is going to end up back in Seattle.
Regardless, Iwakuma is a good bet for a Kyle Lohse-like contract of three years and $10 million to $12 million per year. Despite his durability question mark, that wouldn't be outrageous money for a guy with his talent.
Total
14. Wei-Yin Chen, LHP, Free Agent
12 of 25
Talent Outlook
A mediocre pitcher in 2012 and 2013, Wei-Yin Chen has turned the corner and become an above-average pitcher in the last two years. In posting a 3.44 ERA across 377 innings, he's racked up a 3.80 K/BB ratio that has mainly come courtesy of his aggressiveness within the strike zone.
Chen's weak point is his proneness to home runs. He's given up 51 over the last two years, primarily on a four-seam fastball that is rarely overwhelming. But while that may be his single biggest shortcoming, his ability to throw strikes and eat innings makes him a good attraction for a multiyear deal.
Durability Outlook
Chen missed a good chunk of time with an oblique strain in 2013, but he has otherwise been durable in his brief major league career. In three of four seasons, he's made at least 30 starts and logged at least 185 innings.
The thing to keep in mind, though, is that Chen is now 30 years old with nearly 1,400 professional innings on his arm. But while that raises at least a small measure of suspicion about his durability, his track record and remarkably low-effort mechanics still bode well for his durability over the course of a multiyear deal.
Value Outlook
Chen is more than likely going to receive and reject a qualifying offer from the Orioles, resulting in his being tied to draft-pick compensation when he heads into the open market. But if the likes of Ubaldo Jimenez and Ervin Santana could find deals in the four-year, $50 million range, Chen should as well.
Chen is a pretty good pitcher, but he's more of a No. 3-type starter than a No. 2. Between the money and the lost draft pick, all signs point toward him costing a bit too much.
Total
13. Jeff Samardzija, RHP, Free Agent
13 of 25
Talent Outlook
There's something about odd years that disagrees with Jeff Samardzija. After struggling with a 4.34 ERA in 2013, he was even worse with a 4.96 ERA in 2015. He earned that, too, striking out fewer than seven batters per nine innings and serving up a career-high 29 homers.
But, Samardzija is not a lost cause. His velocity is still hanging in the mid-90s, and he still has strong command of an arsenal that's about as diverse as they come. Abilities like these give him the potential to be an above-average pitcher. You know, like the one he was in 2012 and 2014.
Durability Outlook
Samardzija has been a picture of health in his big league career. He hasn't gone on the disabled list once. And so far as yours truly can tell, he hasn't even dealt with any nagging injuries.
This makes Samardzija different from most 30-year-old pitchers, but there are good reasons for his durability. That he has fewer than 1,000 big league innings on his arm means he's relatively well preserved. He's also well-built at 6'5" and 225 pounds, and with solid mechanics to boot.
Value Outlook
As Jon Heyman of CBS Sports reported, Samardzija will likely receive and reject a qualifying offer from the White Sox. If all he wants is a one-year deal in which he can rebuild his value, that would presumably put the minimum price at $16 million. If not, the best multiyear offer he's likely to get will be something like Brandon McCarthy's four-year, $48 million contract.
Either way, signing Samardzija will not be a cheap roll of the dice. That will be doubly true if he finds a multiyear deal, and there's a good chance of that happening.
Total
12. Scott Kazmir, LHP, Free Agent
14 of 25
Talent Outlook
Scott Kazmir struggled to a 4.17 ERA in 13 starts with the Astros down the stretch, but he's still been largely good in posting a 3.33 ERA over the last two seasons. Along the way, he's shown off much better command than he had earlier in his career, and he has become quite good at limiting hard contact.
The downside is that Kazmir hasn't sustained the velocity spike he enjoyed in his return to the majors in 2013. But a cutter has given him an arsenal of hard stuff that allows for different looks. That, plus his improved command, makes him a solid bet to remain effective as he goes into his mid-30s.
Durability Outlook
Kazmir's lack of durability played a part in forcing him out of the league a few years back, but he's had to go on the DL just once since returning in 2013. And in the last two seasons, he's made at least 30 starts and logged at least 180 innings each year.
Mind you, this doesn't mean Kazmir's past history with injuries can be completely discarded. But his more recent durability can be attributed to mechanical adjustments that have allowed him to put less stress on his body. As long as he keeps it up, durability might not be an issue in a multiyear deal.
Value Outlook
After Oakland traded him to Houston prior to the July deadline, Kazmir will not be receiving a qualifying offer from the Astros. Despite that, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe says Kazmir's issues in Houston may push him to accepting a three-year deal worth $10 million to $12 million per year.
At a time when even midlevel guys are costing teams draft picks and upward of $10 million to $12 million per year, a deal like that would sound pretty good from a club perspective. Kazmir is no ace, but he's good enough to be at least a solid No. 3 in just about any rotation.
Total
11. Mike Leake, RHP, Free Agent
15 of 25
Talent Outlook
Mike Leake is coming off something of a ho-hum season. In posting a 3.70 ERA in 192 innings, he showed he's still the same solid innings-eater he's been for several years. His trick is to use strong command and a diverse arsenal of pitches to throw strikes and keep the ground balls coming.
The downside is that Leake is hardly overpowering, as he consistently posts low strikeout rates and serves up plenty of homers. But his act is effective enough to make him a solid No. 3 or No. 4. And with only his age-28 season due up, he's very much in his prime.
Durability Outlook
When Leake strained his hamstring back in August, he had to go on the DL for only the second time in his career. That's how you make at least 30 starts and pitch at least 179 innings four years in a row.
Working against Leake's durability is the fact that he's not a big guy at just 5'10" and 190 pounds. But his youth is a big advantage over other free-agent pitchers. Whereas virtually all of them are on the wrong side of 30 and approaching their breakdown years, Leake has a few seasons to go still.
Value Outlook
Leake won't be getting a qualifying offer thanks to the July trade that sent him from Cincinnati to San Francisco, so he'll hit the market free of ties to draft-pick compensation. Between that and his age, he could be in line for a five- or six-year deal worth around $15 million per season.
With a lost draft pick, a pact like that would be way too steep for a pitcher of Leake's caliber. Without a draft pick involved, however, it's only a little steep.
Total
10. John Lackey, RHP, Free Agent
16 of 25
Talent Outlook
John Lackey was solid in 2013 and 2014, posting a 3.67 ERA. But he was excellent in 2015, finishing with a career-best 2.77 ERA and logging 218.0 innings. That ERA probably overstates how good he was, but he wasn't bad. He finished with an above-average K/BB ratio (3.30), and he got his share of grounders.
What's remarkable about Lackey, 37, is how well he's maintained his velocity deep into his 30s. But he also showed in 2015 that he no longer wants to lean on his velocity, as he deepened his arsenal by reviving his two-seamer. All this plus his strong command does indeed equate to strong pitching talent.
Durability Outlook
Lackey missed all of 2012 recovering from Tommy John surgery, and then he immediately ran into arm trouble early in 2013. But it's been smooth sailing for him ever since, as he's logged at least 189 innings in each of the last three seasons.
Of course, the fact that Lackey is a 37-year-old with nearly 2,500 career innings on his arm does create some doubt about his durability going forward. But his recent history bodes well, as does the fact that he's a big guy (6'6", 235 pounds) with efficient mechanics.
Value Outlook
Lackey is most certainly going to receive and reject a qualifying offer, and he could then look to make like Tim Hudson and land a multiyear deal despite his advanced age. Odds are, at least one offer would take the shape of a two- or three-year deal worth around $10 million to $12 million per year.
That sounds like a steal, from a team's perspective, for a guy who posted a 2.77 ERA. But given that it's unlikely he'll do that again, such a deal would probably only prove to be fair in the long run.
Total
9. Tyson Ross, RHP, Trade
17 of 25
Speculation Source: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (via MLB Trade Rumors)
Talent Outlook
Though Tyson Ross made the NL All-Star team in 2014, he still looks like an under-the-radar success story. Since 2013, he owns a 3.07 ERA that's come mainly courtesy of a slider that allows him to miss a ton of bats and a sinker that gets him a ton of ground balls.
Ross' one limitation, mind you, is that he has lousy control that stems from funky mechanics. Walks are always likely to be an issue. He's also leaking some velocity as he gets closer to his 30th birthday. Nonetheless, he shouldn't change much in his final two years before free agency, and that's a good thing.
Durability Outlook
Though Ross has yet to pitch more than 200 innings in a season, he has shown he can be a solid workhorse. In each of the last two campaigns, he's made more than 30 starts while pitching more than 190 innings.
Ross doesn't have the cleanest injury history, however, as he's dealt with shoulder and elbow ailments within the last three years. And with inefficient mechanics and a pitching style that goes heavy on sliders, he's probably not guaranteed to remain healthy in the next two seasons.
Value Outlook
Ross is a good but not quite elite starter who is headed for his age-29 season with two years of club control left. That puts Ross in roughly the same boat Doug Fister was in two winters ago, and the Tigers dealt Fister for three controllable pieces of talent. Odds are Ross would have to fetch the same price to be moved.
If Ross were to find some control, he could easily outperform a price like that. But with that unlikely to be the case, odds are the best he would do is merely live up to it.
Total
8. Johnny Cueto, RHP, Free Agent
18 of 25
Talent Outlook
Johnny Cueto has spent the better part of the last five years as a dominant pitcher, posting a 2.71 ERA. Through command and sequencing of a solid arsenal, he racked up a strong 3.30 K/BB ratio and generally collected his share of ground balls and pop-ups.
But things got weird for Cueto in Kansas City, where he posted a 4.76 ERA in 13 starts down the stretch. That struggle didn't come from nowhere. His velocity became inconsistent, and his excellent 4.9 BB% masks how his command often wasn't quite as fine. It's hard to know what to make of all this. But at the very least, it's an indication that his smoke-and-mirrors style of pitching isn't entirely foolproof.
Durability Outlook
Cueto pitched over 240 innings in 2014 and easily made it over 200 again for the third time in four years in 2015. Despite his recent heavy workload, however, the 1,420.1 career innings he has on his 29-year-old arm doesn't stand out as a scary number.
But Cueto's durability outlook still has red flags. Shoulder injuries have caused him to miss some time in the last five years, and he dealt with some elbow trouble earlier in 2015. For a guy in line for a multiyear deal, none of this sounds especially encouraging.
Value Outlook
When the Reds traded Cueto to Kansas City in July, he was a lock for a huge contract. But now you wonder. He's probably not going to be forced into taking a one-year deal, but it seems very possible that he'll be forced to settle for something as small as a four-year pact worth under $100 million.
This is to say that Cueto could sign for less than his track record says it's worth. But given his durability outlook and his recent struggles, such a deal would be more of a good gamble than a steal.
Total
7. Stephen Strasburg, RHP, Trade
19 of 25
Rumor Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Though his career's gone through some rough patches, Stephen Strasburg isn't lacking in talent. He's not the best contact manager, but his awesome stuff and sharp command have helped him rack up a career 4.69 K/BB ratio and 3.09 ERA.
Any team that trades for Strasburg would be able to expect more of the same. Barring a contract extension, he'd only be a one-year rental before hitting free agency next winter. With 2016 set to be his age-27 season, he should be the same pitcher he's been throughout his career.
Durability Outlook
This is where it's hard to take much for granted with Strasburg. He's made 30 starts only twice, and he's crossed 200 innings only once. And in 2015, assorted injuries limited him to just 23 starts.
Looking ahead, Strasburg's youth is really the only bright side. His body is pretty beat up at this point, and he would arguably be an injury risk even without his track record. As ESPN.com's Lindsay Berra and others have noted, Strasburg's mechanics aren't as efficient as they are pretty.
Value Outlook
Strasburg is a talented pitcher in his late 20s who's due to make close to $10 million in his final year before free agency. That makes him similar to what Jeff Samardzija was last year, so the Nationals could theoretically get four young players for Strasburg. Cafardo writes there's "a lot of buzz that the re-tooling Nationals could make the 27-year-old available."
Any team that wants to trade for Strasburg can anticipate having to pay a high price—one that's arguably too high, given that his durability issues often subtract from his talent.
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6. Jordan Zimmermann, RHP, Free Agent
20 of 25
Talent Outlook
Following three excellent seasons from 2012 to 2014, Jordan Zimmermann took a step back to post a 3.66 ERA in 2015. He still managed a characteristically strong 4.21 K/BB ratio, but a velocity drop hurt his ability to miss bats and keep the ball in the yard.
Mind you, Zimmermann still has above-average velocity to go along with his excellent command. But there is some concern over what could be in store if he leaks more velocity, as he doesn't have the diverse pitch mix or sequencing talent to make the transition from power pitcher to finesse pitcher. He's only 29, but his decline phase may be near.
Durability Outlook
Zimmermann underwent Tommy John surgery in 2009, but he hasn't had any further medical issues since becoming a full-time starter in 2011. And beginning in 2012, he's been good for at least 30 starts and 195 innings per year.
As such, Zimmermann's TJ operation might have actually done him a favor. With only 1,094 career innings on his arm, he looks relatively well preserved. That and his clean mechanics allow for some optimism regarding his durability in the life of a long-term deal.
Value Outlook
After David Price and Zack Greinke, Zimmermann is likely to be the third-most desirable pitcher on the open market. And given that he's hitting said market after his age-29 season, something like a five- or six-year deal worth around $20 million per season should await him.
That would have sounded like a steal a year ago, when Zimmermann was coming off his excellent 2014 campaign. But after what happened with him in 2015, now it only sounds like a fair price.
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5. Carlos Carrasco, RHP, Trade
21 of 25
Speculation Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Since stepping into Cleveland's rotation in late 2014, Carlos Carrasco has put up a 3.00 ERA in 40 starts. And even that undersells how good he's been. Using a high-octane fastball and an awesome slider-changeup combination, he's racked up 294 strikeouts and 54 walks in 252.2 innings.
There should be more of this to come. Carrasco proved in 2015 that he can maintain high velocity over a full season as a starter. And though he's headed for his age-29 campaign, that he only has 556 big league innings on his arm could mean that he's due for a later decline phase than most pitchers.
Durability Outlook
Carrasco is a Tommy John survivor, having undergone the surgery in 2011. He also wasn't able to make it through his first full season as a starter unscathed, as he had some trouble with his shoulder in August.
Looking ahead, the fact that Carrasco is a big guy (6'4", 210 pounds) with relatively few innings on his arm bodes well for his durability. But one wonders if he'll be free from the threat of injury, as he's a hard thrower who doesn't appear to have the most efficient mechanics.
Value Outlook
Carrasco may have a limited track record of success, but he's a 28-year-old hurler who's signed to a team-friendly contract through at least 2018, with team options for 2019 and 2020. He could be dealt for a couple of prospects or perhaps the established hitter that Cafardo notes the Indians seek. He wrote: "There’s no question the Indians are going to deal a starting pitcher for a hitter this offseason."
Despite Carrasco's slightly shaky durability outlook, such a trade could easily be worth it. As a talented pitcher who's controllable for another five years, there's plenty of value in Carrasco's future.
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4. Danny Salazar, RHP, Trade
22 of 25
Speculation Source: Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe
Talent Outlook
Danny Salazar was never able to get on track in 2014, but he established himself as a legit major leaguer with a 3.45 ERA in 185 innings in 2015. His mid-90s velocity and sharp splitter allowed him to keep striking out over a batter per inning, and going with a more unpredictable pitch mix helped him avoid hard contact.
Looking ahead, Salazar may only get better. At 25, he's much too young to worry about his awesome stuff abandoning him. And if he continues to hone his craft, he could soon stand out as a hard-thrower who also knows how to pitch. In other words: He's probably only getting started.
Durability Outlook
Salazar is now a few years removed from a Tommy John operation in 2010, and his arm has been largely healthy ever since. And with only 347 big league innings, he hasn't been subjected to much wear and tear.
If there's one thing worth worrying about, it's that Salazar isn't a very big guy at just 6'0" and 195 pounds. As he accumulates more innings, he may be at more risk of breaking down. Even with that noted, though, there's no denying he's only beginning his prime.
Value Outlook
Salazar is a hard-throwing 25-year-old who won't be arbitration-eligible until next winter and who won't hit free agency until after 2020. That makes him a hugely valuable asset who could land the Indians a basket of young players or, as Cafardo says they would prefer, an established major league hitter.
But while that's a big price to pay, keep in mind that whoever trades for Salazar will be getting a pitcher with top-of-the-rotation talent for five years. The return on investment could be more than worth it.
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3. David Price, LHP, Free Agent
23 of 25
Talent Outlook
David Price won the AL Cy Young in 2012 and may win another for his performance in 2015. He racked up a 2.45 ERA in 220.1 innings, also posting a characteristically excellent 4.79 K/BB ratio. Certainly, it helped that he maintained his excellent control while also regaining quite a bit of lost velocity.
With Price now on the wrong side of 30, the question going forward is whether that velocity spike can last. But even if it doesn't, his excellent control and increasingly unpredictable pitch mix should allow him to remain effective. The end of his days as a high-end pitcher should not be nigh.
Durability Outlook
Price is nothing if not durable, as he's topped 30 starts and 200 innings in five seasons out of six. The one exception happened when a triceps injury felled him in 2013, but that now looks more like an outlier than a red flag.
Another thing is the reality that Price's 1,441.2 career innings through his age-29 season aren't that many relative to quite a few other pitchers in recent memory. That's no guarantee that he'll stay healthy throughout the life of a long-term deal, but it's a solid assurance that a breakdown may not be imminent.
Value Outlook
More than likely, Price's objective in free agency will be to at least match the seven-year, $210 million contract that Max Scherzer got last winter from the Washington Nationals. To this end, it will help that Price has a longer track record of success. Just as important, it will help that he won't be tied to draft-pick compensation thanks to his July trade.
As such, Price does stand a solid chance of matching Scherzer's contract. But while such a price would be fair, goodness knows it won't be a steal. It's one thing to earn one a pact like that, but living up to a $200 million contract is very, very difficult.
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2. Zack Greinke, RHP, Free Agent
24 of 25
Talent Outlook
Zack Greinke, 32, was downright excellent in three years as a Dodger, as his 1.66 ERA in 2015 lowered his overall mark in Los Angeles to 2.30. And he more than earned that, posting an excellent 4.30 K/BB ratio and racking up plenty of soft contact with some of the best command and sequencing you'll find anywhere.
On that last note, that's the beauty of where Greinke is now. He's not a true power pitcher anymore, as he gets by on keeping both lefties and righties guessing with a constant barrage of heaters and off-speed stuff on the outside corner. His style of pitching is one that should continue to age well.
Durability Outlook
Greinke has topped 30 starts and 200 innings in six of eight years since 2008. The two times he didn't came in 2011 and 2013, and only because he suffered freak injuries playing basketball and holding his ground against a charging Carlos Quentin.
The down side, of course, is that Greinke is now 32 years old. But that number isn't as scary on him as it is on other pitchers. He has a relatively clean injury history for good reasons, most notably smooth mechanics and a general awareness for how to stay healthy. His durability should also age well.
Value Outlook
Relative to the other top-end starters about to hit the open market, Greinke's age puts him at a disadvantage. But if Cliff Lee could get a five-year, $120 million contract coming off his age-31 season five years ago, it's not hard to imagine Greinke getting $140 million to $150 million in a five-year pact. He may even have a realistic shot at a six-year deal.
Either way, of course, he's not going to come cheap. But given his strong talent and durability outlooks, he could live up to a big-money contract.
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1. Matt Harvey, RHP, Trade
25 of 25
Speculation Source: Jon Heyman of CBS Sports
Talent Outlook
Though he often seemed like the forgotten ace of the Mets rotation, Matt Harvey was very good in his return from Tommy John surgery in 2015. He racked up an excellent 5.08 K/BB ratio and finished with a 2.71 ERA, bringing his career ERA to 2.53 over 65 big league starts.
Harvey's excellence shouldn't diminish anytime soon. He showed in 2015 that he still has mid- to high-90s heat and three sharp secondary pitches to go with his strong command. And at 26 years old, he shouldn't have to worry about losing his stuff until years from now.
Durability Outlook
With his Tommy John operation in 2013, Harvey has already experienced a major injury and surgery. Going forward, the question now is whether he's at risk of further harm.
He may not be. Harvey's high-velocity style may mean he's more at risk than most pitchers, but it helps that he's built well at 6'4" and 215 pounds. And with his strong drop-and-drive mechanics, he's able to save his arm and shoulder from too much stress. His most durable days should be ahead of him.
Value Outlook
Harvey is a 26-year-old with a 2.53 career ERA who's under club control through 2018. It's no wonder Heyman wrote in his September report the Mets "wouldn't discount him one iota" if they were to put him on the block. This said, the idea has more merit than you might think. The Mets have a lot of holes to fill this winter. And rather than money to spend on free agents, what they have an abundance of is young starting pitching to use in trades. After this year's awkwardness, Harvey is a sensible candidate to go.
While the price for Harvey would certainly be high, he could live up to it. After all, trading for him would mean getting an elite power pitcher in his prime for three seasons. A return like that is worth a big investment.
