Fantasy Football Week 9: Advanced Stats, Trends to Maximize Your Lineup

With Week 9 of the fantasy football season up and running, it’s time to once again look at some of the advanced stats, metrics and trends you can use to maximize your lineup potential.

Player projections for the week’s top five options at each position will also be provided in this article.

Eli Manning slips into the top five this week thanks to his favorable matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The fact that he threw for an impressive six touchdowns last week didn’t hurt his stock either.

Two players who weren’t expected to be in the top five this season are indeed ranked among the elite at the running back position this week: Mark Ingram (No. 3) and Doug Martin (No. 5). What can you expect from these two veterans?

At the wide receiver position, Alshon Jeffery is able to sneak into the top five despite a looks-hard-on-paper matchup against the San Diego Chargers. Find out why Jeffery should transcend the matchup.

Let’s get to some of the stats, metrics and player projections that will help you dominate in Week 9.

Quarterbacks: Eli Manning Primed for Another Big Week

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Eli Manning

Andy Dalton was ranked No. 5 heading into the week, but he played on Thursday Night Football and was excluded from the list. Dalton ended up completing over 77 percent of his passes for 234 yards and three touchdowns to go alongside zero interceptions.

Removing Dalton from the equation opens the door for Eli Manning to step into the top five. He should be good for over 300 yards and three touchdowns against the poor Tampa Bay secondary.

Drew Brees is fresh off a seven-touchdown performance, which helped him become the consensus No. 3 quarterback this week, but find out below why he may not be a slam-dunk option against the Tennessee Titans.

The Projections

1. Tom Brady (vs. WAS): 30-of-43, 347 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—25.9 fantasy points
2. Philip Rivers (vs. CHI): 29-of-39, 320 yards, 3 touchdowns, 0 interceptions—22.8 fantasy points
3. Drew Brees (vs. TEN) 31-of-46, 318 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.7 fantasy points
4. Ben Roethlisberger (vs. OAK): 22-of-31, 307 yards, 3 touchdowns, 1 interception—22.3 fantasy points
5. Eli Manning (at TB): 24-of-33, 303 yards, 3 touchdowns, 2 interceptions—20.1 fantasy points

Stats to Know 

Prior to throwing seven touchdowns last week, Brees hadn't thrown for more than two touchdowns in a game all season. His Week 9 opponent—Tennessee—hasn't allowed a quarterback to throw for more than two touchdowns (or more than 270 yards) in a game. Brees may be in line for another two-touchdown performance.

Eli Manning is set for another big game in Week 9. He’ll be playing against the Buccaneers, who have given up 17 passing touchdowns (second-most in the league) to opposing quarterbacks so far this season, per ESPN.com.

You’ll notice Aaron Rodgers isn’t in the top five this week. That’s because he’s playing against the Carolina Panthers, who have been the third-best team at stopping quarterbacks from scoring fantasy points so far this season, per ESPN.com. The Panthers have given up just seven passing touchdowns but have intercepted 12 passes, giving them the second-best TD-INT ratio in the league, behind only the stingy Denver Broncos.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Tom Brady is currently the most accurate deep passer in the league, with 81.3 percent of his passes traveling 20-plus yards in the air being on target.

Andrew Luck has just 6.34 yards per attempt this season. His YPA last season was 7.73.

Philip Rivers has been having a fantastic season, and this might be one of the key reasons why: He’s been extremely accurate under pressure. Rivers has been accurate on 79.6 percent of his throws when pressured, tops in the league.

Running Backs: Doug Martin Moves into Top 5

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Doug Martin

Devonta Freeman and Todd Gurley continue to battle it out for the right to the top spot, and both have excellent matchups this week.

Behind them, some could be surprised to find Mark Ingram and Doug Martin ranked so high. Find out below why it's time to love both of these players.

The Projections 

1. Devonta Freeman (at SF): 20 carries, 121 yards, 1 touchdown; 6 receptions, 55 yards, 1 touchdown—29.6 fantasy points
2. Todd Gurley (at MIN): 24 carries, 133 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 25 yards—27.8 fantasy points
3. Mark Ingram (vs. TEN): 20 carries, 94 yards, 2 touchdowns; 2 receptions, 19 yards—23.3 fantasy points
4. Adrian Peterson (vs. STL): 21 carries, 110 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 38 yards—20.8 fantasy points
5. Doug Martin (vs. NYG): 23 carries, 107 yards, 1 touchdown; 3 receptions, 28 yards—19.5 fantasy points

Stats to Know

Between Weeks 4-8, only the electric Gurley has rushed for more yards than Martin on a per-game basis, according to Pro Football Focus.

Chicago Bears rookie Jeremy Langford will be thrust into the spotlight as he fills in for Matt Forte on Monday Night Football, but he’s worth a start in fantasy. He’ll be playing against the Chargers, who have given up 22.1 fantasy points per game to opposing running backs so far this season, most in the league, according to ESPN.com. Running backs also have 450 receiving yards against the Bears this season. Only the Atlanta Falcons have given up more receiving yards to running backs.

Gurley has his work cut out for him this week. He’ll be playing against the Minnesota Vikings, who have given up the fifth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing running backs, per ESPN.com. The Vikings have allowed only three touchdowns to running backs so far this season.

What the Metrics Say 

We don’t necessarily think of Ingram as an "elusive" running back, but according to Pro Football Focus, only three running backs have forced more missed tackles on receptions than Ingram so far this season: Dion Lewis, Danny Woodhead and Freeman. That’s elusive company. On rushing attempts, Ingram ranks eighth with 22 forced missed tackles.

Jonathan Stewart has strung together several nice games in a row, but he remains a plodder. Stewart has only two rushes that have gone for 15-plus yards this season.

Dion Lewis is electric out of the backfield, but he leads all receivers with five dropped passes. That’s a clear area of improvement for him.

Wide Receivers: Demaryius Thomas to Find End Zone in Week 9

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Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas remains in the top five this week despite the fact that he has scored only one touchdown all season. Look for him to find the paint this week (and in the coming weeks). Find out why below.

Alshon Jeffery also ranks in the top five this week even though he’s playing against the Chargers, who started the season off strong against the pass. There's more below on Jeffery’s satiation and why he’s ranked so high.

The Projections

1. Julio Jones (at SF): 9 receptions, 114 yards, 1 touchdown—17.4 fantasy points
2. Antonio Brown (vs. OAK): 9 receptions, 112 yards, 1 touchdown—17.2 fantasy points
3. Odell Beckham Jr. (at TB): 7 receptions, 96 yards, 1 touchdown—15.6 fantasy points
4. Demaryius Thomas (at IND): 9 receptions, 90 yards, 1 touchdown—15 fantasy points
5. Alshon Jeffery (at SD): 6 receptions, 84 yards, 1 touchdown—14.4 fantasy points

Stats to Know

According to data from Pro Football Focus, all wide receivers with at least 65 targets this season also have at least three touchdowns—except for one. That would be Demaryius Thomas, who has 85 targets (fourth-most) but just one touchdown. Look for him to start scoring more touchdowns soon, assuming he continues to see a high number of targets.

Wide receivers have caught only one touchdown this season against the Denver Broncos, per ESPN.com. You should sit Indianapolis Colts wide receivers this week.

DeSean Jackson could have a big week against the New England Patriots in his return to action. Not only will the Washington Redskins likely be playing catch-up, but the Patriots have given up the seventh-most fantasy points per game to opposing wideouts so far this season, per ESPN.com.

What the Metrics Say

Jeffery is averaging 3.13 yards per pass route this season, per Pro Football Focus, making him the second-most efficient wideout (behind only Stefon Diggs’ 3.20 YPPR). He has a tough matchup against the Chargers, but the metrics say he’ll perform.

Steve Smith is going to be a big loss for the Baltimore Ravens. He was averaging 2.90 YPPR, fourth-highest in the league behind Diggs, Jeffery and Julio Jones.

Jordan Matthews has struggled this season, but it’s not because of a role change. Matthews is running a league-high 92.8 percent of his routes from the slot—similar to last season.

Tight Ends: Jordan Reed in Top 5, but He Has His Work Cut Out for Him

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Jordan Reed

Tyler Eifert was the No. 3 tight end this week, and Gary Barnidge was No. 5, but both played on Thursday Night Football and were excluded from the below list. Eifert ended up catching three touchdowns and will likely end the week as the highest-scoring tight end.

Jordan Reed is in the top five this week (and still would have been on the list had Eifert and Barnidge not been excluded), but he will have his work cut out for him. Find out why below.

The Projections

1. Rob Gronkowski (vs. WAS): 7 receptions, 109 yards, 1 touchdown—16.9 fantasy points
2. Greg Olsen (vs. GB): 6 receptions, 94 yards, 1 touchdown—15.4 fantasy points
3. Antonio Gates (vs. CHI) 5 receptions, 88 yards, 1 touchdown—14.8 fantasy points
4. Jordan Reed (at NE): 8 receptions, 83 yards, 1 touchdown—14.3 fantasy points
5. Martellus Bennett (at SD): 5 receptions, 78 yards, 1 touchdown—13.8 fantasy points

Stats to Know

As noted on the wide receiver slide, the Patriots have given up an abundance of points to wideouts so far this season. The same is not true for tight ends, as the Patriots are the seventh-best team at stopping tight ends from scoring fantasy points, per ESPN.com. Reed is a must-start, but this is a tough matchup for him, as the Patriots have given up only one touchdown to a tight end all season long.

Austin Seferian-Jenkins should be solid in his return to action for the Buccaneers. He’ll be playing against the New York Giants, who have given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing tight ends in 2015, according to ESPN.com. That game has the makings of a shootout.

The Oakland Raiders continue to be terrible at stopping tight ends. They have given up eight touchdowns to tight ends this season, per ESPN.com, while no other team in the league has given up more than six. Heath Miller, who plays against the Raiders in Week 9, is a solid tail-end TE1.

What the Metrics Say

According to Pro Football Focus, Antonio Gates is currently scoring 0.26 fantasy points per snap, most among all tight ends.

Jordan Cameron is targeted, on average, 13 yards down the field. That’s not only tops in the league among tight ends, but it's also a significant change from last season, when his average depth of target (a Pro Football Focus stat) was 10.3.

Crockett Gillmore is one of the most efficient tight ends in the league when it comes to fantasy points per snap. He ranks 12th with 0.12 points per snap. If he continues to see more playing time, he could start to put up tail-end TE1 numbers on a regular basis.

Kickers: Brandon McManus a No-Brainer This Week

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Brandon McManus

Denver Broncos kicker Brandon McManus is one of the safest bets at the kicker position this weekend. He’s playing against Indianapolis (in a controlled environment) and is on an offense that can move the ball but has trouble finding the end zone. That’s kicker gold.

The Projections

1. Stephen Gostkowski (vs. WAS): 3-of-3 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—12 fantasy points
2. Brandon McManus (at IND): 3-of-3 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—12 fantasy points
3. Matt Bryant (at SF): 2-of-2 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
4. Josh Lambo (vs. CHI): 2-of-2 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—9 fantasy points
5. Josh Brown (at TB): 2-of-2 FGs, 3-of-3 XPs—9 fantasy points

Stats to Know

McManus has the second-most fantasy points among kickers so far this season, according to ESPN.com, and he’ll be playing against the Colts, who have been generous to kickers this year.

Only three teams have had kickers attempt more than 20 field goals against them this season: the Baltimore Ravens, the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens are on bye this week, but the Jaguars play against the New York Jets (plus for Nick Folk), and the Steelers play against the Raiders (plus for Sebastian Janikowski).

Patriots kicker Stephen Gostkowski has not missed a field goal all season and has scored double-digit points in every game save for Week 1.

Defense and Special Teams: Atlanta Falcons a Top-Flight D/ST in Week 9

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The Cincinnati D/ST was ranked No. 5 heading into the week, but the Bengals played on Thursday Night Football and were not included. They held the Cleveland Browns to only 10 points but failed to get their hands on a number of Johnny Manziel-thrown footballs (as expected).

The Falcons will travel to San Francisco to take on the 49ers, who are now led by Blaine Gabbert. Start the Falcons D/ST with confidence.

The Projections

1. Denver Broncos (at IND): 23 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 2 fumble recoveries, 3 sacks
2. New York Jets (at JAC): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
3. New England Patriots (vs. WAS): 17 points allowed, 2 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks
4. St. Louis Rams (at MIN): 21 points allowed, 1 interception, 2 fumble recovery, 5 sacks
5. Atlanta Falcons (at SF): 13 points allowed, 3 interceptions, 1 fumble recovery, 4 sacks

Stats to Know

The Broncos D/ST has 117 fantasy points in ESPN.com leagues—39 more points than the second-best D/ST unit. Denver's D has been unstoppable, and after shutting down Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers, it appears matchup-proof. Only the Week 12 tilt with the Patriots looms.

The 49ers have already given up the second-most fantasy points to opposing D/STs this season, per ESPN.com, and they are now rolling out Gabbert as their starter, a player who has 32 career turnovers compared to 24 touchdowns. If you're a Falcons D/ST owner, you're licking your chops.

Three of the better D/ST units in the league have not scored a touchdown so far this season: the Patriots, the Jets and the Bengals. The Bengals already played this week, and they still haven’t scored, but look for luck to smile on one or all of these D/STs in the near future. They are due.

The rankings for each position come via the expert consensus rankings compiled by FantasyPros. 

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “Stats to Know” sections throughout the slideshow came via ESPN.com or via NFL.com.

Unless otherwise noted, all stats in the “What the Metrics Say” sections throughout the slideshow came via Pro Football Focus.