NFL Predictions Week 6: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

The 2015 NFL season is shaping up to be one of the weirdest in recent memory. After five weeks, the NFL has a whopping six unbeaten teams (down to five after Atlanta's Thursday loss). The rest of the league is mired in discombobulation: A whopping 19 teams are playing losing football right now.

Is this the death of parity? Has the NFL stratified into the haves and have-nots? Are we doomed to watch the rest of the season play out in predictable fashion as the same top teams win week after week after week?

Or will it be the opposite?

Will the funny-shaped ovoid of leather and rubber—that bounces more unpredictably than any other sporting ball—keep us all guessing and send those teams that rolled through early autumn into a scary Halloween and bleak mid-winter? Are we about to see some giants get crushed, dragons get slain and bottom-feeders rise to the top?

Every week Bleacher Report assembles our indomitable team of experts to preview the upcoming games. By majority vote we predict the week's biggest upset and blowout, give you sleepers at every offensive skill position and throw in a few special predictions of our own devising.

For these inscrutable Week 6 projections we had to tighten our thinking caps, roll up our wizard sleeves and polish our crystal balls.

Biggest Upset

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Cleveland Browns (+4) over Denver Broncos—three votes

Before the season started, it would have been hard to find three people, let alone three of our NFL expert panel, who would choose the Browns to win this game.

On the heels of journeyman quarterback Josh McCown's signature Week 5 performance, though, the Browns are riding high—and the Broncos, at 5-0, have made some incredibly narrow escapes. Three of our experts think the time is right for the Broncos' luck to run out.

NFL Analyst Brad Gagnon, though, went in a different direction. He explains his decision to tab the new-look Dolphins for an upset win:

"

I don't understand why Tennessee is favored here. We're still talking about a talented Miami team coming off a bye week, and the new energy provided by Dan Campbell has to be taken into consideration. The Dolphins have struggled, but they're still better than a Titans team that has lost three straight winnable games. 

"

Others receiving votes: Carolina Panthers (+7.5) over Seattle Seahawks—two votes; Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over Cincinnati Bengals; Miami Dolphins (+2.5) over Tennessee Titans; San Francisco 49ers (+1) over Baltimore Ravens

Biggest Blowout

Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: New England Patriots over Indianapolis Colts—six votes

This season has been called the New England Patriots' screw-you tour (and saltier things): Incensed over the Deflategate investigation and punishments, Tom Brady, Bill Belichick and #PatsNation are beating everyone in the NFL as badly as they can.

Their next punching bag is the Indianapolis Colts, whose complaint to the officials in the 2014 AFC Championship Game started Deflategate.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport sums up the majority opinion:

"

The Colts may have been labeled a preseason Super Bowl contender, but the first five weeks have exposed them as paper tigers. Matt Hasselbeck has outplayed Andrew Luck, all those big-name free-agent signings have made little impact, and the Colts still can't stop the run or pressure the quarterback. Oh, and the last time these teams met the score was 45-7. Other than that, though, Indy has nothing to worry about.

"

Others receiving votes: Arizona Cardinals over Pittsburgh Steelers—two votes

Higher Total: Mike Vick Pass Attempts or David Johnson Rushing Yards?

Ross D. Franklin/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: David Johnson rushing yards—seven votes

David Johnson has been one of the NFL's best, and quietest, surprise stories. Doing damage on the ground, through the air and in the return game, he is part of a talented Cardinals running back committee that includes Chris Johnson and a healthy-again Andre Ellington.

Going up against the Steelers, a talented team missing their quarterback, Johnson could get fewer opportunities as Ellington continues to warm up—or he could get garbage-time carries if things go according to plan.

On the other side, Steelers backup quarterback Mike Vick ran a conservative game plan in Weeks 4 and 5; he threw only 26 times in each game. Meanwhile, despite Johnson getting more touches overall, his rushing yards have actually dwindled with each game: 42 in Week 2, then 25, 18 and just six rushing yards in Week 5.

Nevertheless, nearly all of our experts like Johnson to run for a higher number of yards than the number of passes Vick will throw.

Others receiving votes: Mike Vick passing attempts

Biggest Mismatch

Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Arizona Cardinals secondary vs. Mike Vick—three votes

Patrick Peterson, Tyrann Mathieu, Tony Jefferson, Jerraud Powers, Justin Bethel. That's the list of Arizona Cardinals defensive backs who have at least one interception this year—not counting safety Rashad Johnson, who actually leads the team with three!

The Cardinals have an NFL-best 11 interceptions through five games this season and are on pace for a hilarious 35 interceptions on the year—which would be the highest total any team has recorded since 1988, per Pro-Football-Reference.com.

Vick, who's been known to throw a pick or two, will have his work cut out for him.

Following naturally after our "Biggest Blowout" prediction, two of our experts picked the matchup of an angry Tom Brady against the Indianapolis Colts as the biggest mismatch. NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier thinks the Kansas City Chiefs offense will be overwhelmed by a double-team of the Vikings defense and "the Chiefs' own sadness."

Others receiving votes: Tom Brady vs. Indianapolis Colts defense—two votes; Green Bay Packers defensive line vs. San Diego Chargers offensive line; Minnesota Vikings defense/Kansas City Chiefs' sadness vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Sleeper QB Performance

Rhona Wise/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Ryan Tannehill—three votes

Sometimes, you just need a different voice in your ear.

The only boss Ryan Tannehill had ever known, Joe Philbin, has been fired. With Dolphins tight ends coach Dan Campbell taking over in the interim, Tannehill will have a chance to prove to the world that Philbin was doing more to hold him back than the other way around.

Technically, the Tennessee Titans have the best passing defense in the game right now. But though they've allowed the fewest passing yards, that at least has as much to do with the flow and quality of the games they've been in—and the more porous run defense—as their own ability.

A motivated Tannehill is capable of putting up monster games. Will this be the week he unleashes his considerable talents?

Others receiving votes: Jay Cutler—two votes, Sam Bradford, Ryan Fitzpatrick, Colin Kaepernick

More Passing Yards: Ryan Tannehill or Marcus Mariota?

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Marcus Mariota—five votes

The winner of this game-within-a-game might consider the victory Pyrrhic: Whichever quarterback is forced to abandon the run and play catch-up might as well be on the losing side.

Yet, the matchup is especially intriguing: Tannehill, playing with a new head coach (and nothing to lose) versus Mariota, playing increasingly well for a team that still has a shot in the soft AFC South.

Five of our experts like Mariota to pick apart the bewildered Dolphins defense, which seemed to be in open mutiny against now-fired defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle. Three sided with Tannehill, who's playing for—if not his own job—Campbell's job and every other retained Dolphins assistant.

Again, the "winner" here might actually be on the losing end if his running game and defense don't hold up their end of the deal, but our experts believe Mariota will have the better statistical day. 

Others receiving votes: Ryan Tannehill—three votes

More Turnovers: Kirk Cousins or Ryan Fitzpatrick?

Alex Brandon/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Kirk Cousins—seven votes

The Washington and New York Jets matchup provides an opportunity for comparison: Which one of the two turnover-prone quarterbacks will throw more picks against the other's defense?

Of course, both quarterbacks have something else in common. Besides their relatively high interception rates (Fitzpatrick is tied for third-highest this year, at 4.1 percent; Cousins is tied for eighth, at 3.2), both quarterbacks can move the ball and score points surprisingly well.

Yet, even though Fitzpatrick has the higher interception rate, an overwhelming majority—in fact, all but NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier—picked Cousins to throw more interceptions.

Why? Darrelle Revis and the vaunted Jets secondary already have six picks in five games, and the league's second-lowest net yards per attempt allowed, per Pro-Football-Reference.com. To say Cousins has his work cut out for him would be an understatement.

Others receiving votes: Ryan Fitzpatrick

Sleeper RB Performance

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Bishop Sankey—three votes

The ever-contentious "Sleeper RB Performance" group got its usual cast of diverse options. Five different running backs got at least one vote this week—which, believe it or not, is a smaller field than usual!

Three of our experts went with Titans tailback Bishop Sankey, who's rounding into good form as the Titans play the Dolphins, who have allowed the most rushing yards per game this season.

Two experts went with Detroit Lions running back Zach Zenner, whose straight-line verve picked up unnoticed hard yards in the midst of a team implosion. Going up against the vulnerable Bears defense—and nudging the fumble-prone Ameer Abdullah out of the way in the process—Zenner could put up nice numbers.

One wag (OK, it was NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman) penciled in "Mike Vick" in the Sleeper RB Performance category. Very funny, Mike.

Others receiving votes: Zach Zenner—two votes, Melvin Gordon, Mike Vick, Charcandrick West

Sleeper WR Performance

Michael Perez/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Jordan Matthews—three votes

Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Jordan Matthews had a couple of high-profile drops during last Sunday's big win over the New Orleans Saints. However, against the visiting New York Giants (who are on one of football's more improbable three-game winning streaks), Matthews will be targeted early and often; our experts expect him to come through more often than not.

Facing the league's least-effective pass rush and seventh-worst pass-coverage unit, per Pro Football Focus, Matthews—and the Eagles—ought to put up big numbers.

All five of our other experts nominated their own contender for the spot, including NFL Lead Writer Mike Freeman giving a nod to the Seattle Seahawks' Doug Baldwin. Through five games, Baldwin has career-best stats in receptions (4.6 per game) and receiving yards (53.6). He's on pace for a career high in touchdown catches, too, with six.

It'll be a big task to torch the Carolina Panthers defense for much more than that—but it feels like Seattle's offense is about to explode, and as the top wideout, Baldwin will surely blow up along with it.

Others receiving votes: Kamar Aiken, Doug Baldwin, John Brown, Taylor Gabriel, Rishard Matthews

Sleeper TE Performance

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, two votes each): Charles Clay, Jacob Tamme

Ten categories in and we have our first tie of the week: Our experts both liked the Buffalo Bills' Charles Clay and the Atlanta Falcons' Jacob Tamme to put together standout showings in Week 6.

Clay, whose Bills will be taking on the Cincinnati Bengals, might be the only man in blue with a favorable matchup. The Bengals have a fantastic defensive line and secondary, but their outside linebacking corps of Vincent Rey, Emmanuel Lamur and A.J. Hawk all have negative Pro Football Focus coverage grades.

Tamme will be going on the road to the Superdome, where his red-hot Falcons will take on the flailing New Orleans Saints. Entering Week 6, the toothless Saints defense is ranked 29th in scoring defense; Tamme and the Falcons should have no problem putting up points.

Others receiving votes: Gary Barnidge, Garrett Celek, Scott Chandler, Richard Rodgers

Over/Under: Five Interceptions for Matthew Stafford/Jay Cutler

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Under—five votes

In a role reversal of the 2014 season, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler are again having roughly similar (i.e., not very good) years—only this time it's Stafford who's throwing a few more picks and Cutler whose team is winning games. 

The two quarterbacks are both supreme physical talents who are regularly brought up in discussions of the league's most gifted throwers. Both quarterbacks have had their toughness questioned—and have shown moments of extreme toughness. Both have had their motivation and focus questioned, and both have displayed great motivation and focus.

Together, including Stafford's league-leading (league-trailing?) eight picks, they've thrown 11. When they face each other in Week 6, will there be some kind of interception singularity? A critical-mass chain-interception reaction?

Five of our experts voted under. Two thought they'd throw exactly five interceptions. One naysayer, NFL Analyst Gary Davenport, thinks they'll combine for a whopping six picks or more.

Others receiving votes: Push—two votes, Over

Best Defensive Performance

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick: Tyrann Mathieu—three votes

Our experts have already discussed the Cardinals' intimidating matchup against Mike Vick and the Steelers passing game. They've already pointed out how the ball-hawking Cardinals secondary is going to feast on every Vick mistake.

For Mathieu, though, the opportunity looms a little larger. The last time the Cardinals faced a player with this kind of deep-ball arm and crazy legs was against the San Francisco 49ers' Colin Kaepernick—and Mathieu had two interceptions and returned one for a touchdown.

Darrelle Revis will have the chance to make Kirk Cousins pay for his signature slightly-too-late comeback routes, and Richard Sherman will try to slow down the hot Cam Newton. Everson Griffen just might hassle Alex Smith, and NFL Analyst Gary Davenport continues to keep a candle lit for J.J. Watt.

Others receiving votes: Everson Griffen, Darrelle Revis, Richard Sherman, J.J. Watt

Flop of the Week

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Expert Consensus Pick (tie, two votes each): Matthew Stafford/Detroit Lions; Josh McCown, Kirk Cousins

Stafford can't catch a break from our experts. One week after an embarrassing three-interception performance against the Arizona Cardinals—one that got him benched for the first time in his career—two of our panelists expect him to have another meltdown against Chicago.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport explains why:

"

Do I really need to list the reasons why the Lions are headed for a faceplant? Aren't they already hip-deep in one? The defense is bad, the offense is worse, fingers are being pointed in every direction and Matt Stafford was benched last week.

The last time the Lions started 0-5, they went ahead and lost the next 11 too. This year's team may not be as bad as the 2008 club that went 0-16, but are they really that much better? Getting rolled by the lowly Bears will just be the latest low in a season of them in the Motor City.

"

Two more voted for Browns quarterback Josh McCown, who surely won't come near replicating his 457-yard, two-touchdown, no-interception performance from Week 5, and two more went with Washington quarterback Kirk Cousins.

NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski thinks Cam Newton will be cold after spending Week 4 cooling his heels, and NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier threw ice water all over the idea that interim head coach Dan Campbell is going to come in and get the Dolphins to play well.

Others receiving votes: Dan Campbell, Cam Newton