Updated 2015 MLB Playoff Odds with Just 2 Weeks to Go
The St. Louis Cardinals and Pittsburgh Pirates have punched their tickets to October, but the 2015 MLB playoff picture remains jumbled—especially in the American League.
Like we did last week, it's time to check in on all the division and wild-card races and figure out which clubs have the best chance of joining the Cards and Bucs in the postseason. In the process of setting the percentages, four key factors were taken into consideration:
- Current standings
- Recent play
- Injuries
- Remaining schedule
No percentages have been given for the clubs that have already been eliminated from contention. Plus, there were a few squads who are still mathematically in the race but whose underwhelming play and unfavorable position in the standings make them non-contenders.
Buster Posey's San Francisco Giants and Bryce Harper's Washington Nationals both almost fell into that camp, but because of the way the schedule shakes out, they remain contenders for now.
AL West
1 of 6
Contenders
Texas Rangers: (82-69; Three games up in the AL West)
With a three-game edge in the American League West and the second wild-card spot as a fallback option, the Texas Rangers are a safe bet to be a postseason participant. As a result, the team's odds get a bump up from the last time we checked in.
Thanks to the way the schedule plays out—seven of the club's final 10 games come against the two teams directly trailing them in the standings—the Rangers will have the chance to ensure they arrive in the playoffs as division champs.
Starting Friday, the Rangers take on the Houston Astros in a three-game series at Minute Maid Park. The Rangers end the campaign by hosting the Los Angeles Angels for four games at Globe Life Park.
Meanwhile, the Rangers' four other games come against a couple of last-place clubs in the form of the Oakland Athletics and the Detroit Tigers.
Playoff Chances: 95 Percent
Houston Astros (80-73; Three games back in the AL West and one game up for the second wild-card spot)
Scoreboard-watching season has officially arrived.
"Hell yeah, I'll watch 'em," Astros manager A.J. Hinch told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com when asked if he'd be keeping an eye on the Rangers and Minnesota Twins games.
Hinch should probably add the Angels to that list. After losing two of three games to the Halos, Houston now has just a 1.5-game lead over Los Angeles for the second wild-card spot and is a single game up over the Twins.
With losses in seven of their last 10, the wheels are falling off for the Astros at the worst possible moment. The scariest thing of all for Hinch and his squad is the Astros close the campaign with six games on the road. Houston's 29-46 mark away from the Juice Box is the worst road record of any team in the AL.
Playoff Chances: 50 Percent
Los Angeles Angels (78-74; 4.5 games back in the AL West and 1.5 games back for the second wild-card)
The Angels saved their season by taking two out of three in their recently completed set with the Astros. For Los Angeles, Mike Trout woke up at the perfect time. The center fielder has kept the Angels in the race by clubbing six home runs in September and also clawed his way back into the MVP race.
Now, Trout and the Angels need to take care of business in their next six games against the Seattle Mariners and Athletics before ending the year in Arlington.
Playoff Chances: 30 Percent
Non-Contenders
Seattle Mariners (74-78)
Oakland Athletics (64-88)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Kansas City Royals: (88-63; 10 games up in the AL Central)
With the club holding a commanding 10-game lead in the AL Central, the top priority for the Kansas City Royals in the final couple of weeks will be getting the pitching staff back on track as October approaches.
In September, the group has logged a 5.33 ERA, which is the third-worst mark in the majors. Slumping ace Johnny Cueto provided a bit of relief in his last outing, allowing two earned runs in seven innings against the Detroit Tigers last Friday. For Cueto, that outing marked the first time he'd made it through the seventh since Aug. 15.
The outlook for Greg Holland is looking far less promising. According to Blair Kerkhoff of the Kansas City Star, manager Ned Yost has opted for Wade Davis to take over the ninth. Last October, Holland was the Royals' most dangerous late-inning weapon. This time around, he's a major question mark.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Minnesota Twins (78-73; 10 games back in the AL Central and one game back for the second wild-card)
With two weeks to go, the Minnesota Twins remain right in the middle of the conversation for the second wild-card spot.
As the Twins continue their improbable pursuit of a postseason berth, Torii Hunter has emerged as an unlikely leading figure. As the 40-year-old explained, via Mike Berardino of the Pioneer Press, he just refuses to let the Twins drop out of the race:
"I hate meaningless games. They mean nothing to me -- by definition. I can't play. I can't perform. It hurts. Really, I don't even want to play. I hate 'em.
"
Hunter has been doing all he can to ensure the Twins don't play any meaningless games. In 17 September contests, Hunter owns a .333 average and an .877 OPS. That's an especially impressive run considering he's hitting .227 with a .647 OPS in the second half.
Miguel Sano has also been doing his part to keep the Twins in contention. With four bombs this month and 17 this season, the 22-year-old is also swinging his way into the AL Rookie of the Year discussion.
If Hunter, Sano and the Twins are going to leap past the Houston Astros in the standings, they'll have to continue getting the job done against the Cleveland Indians, who they face five times down the stretch.
Playoff Chances: 35 Percent
Cleveland Indians (74-76; 13.5 games back in the AL Central and 4.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
With just a 7.5 percent chance of getting into the postseason the last time we checked in on the field, the Cleveland Indians are going to need to catch a lot of break.
Right now, that's not happening. On Wednesday, the Tribe had to make due without Michael Brantley, who is dealing with a shoulder injury, per Paul Hoynes of the Northeast Ohio Media Group.
With 12 games to go and the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Twins and Los Angeles Angels all ahead of the Indians in the wild-card standings, the club's odds of making it to October are slim to none.
Playoff Chances: 1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (72-80)
Detroit Tigers (71-81)
AL East
3 of 6
Contenders
Toronto Blue Jays: (87-65; 3.5 games up in the AL East)
This drought is all but over.
With a 3.5-game advantage in the AL East, the Toronto Blue Jays are on the verge of heading to the postseason for the first time since 1993. The Blue Jays went a long way in making sure the club advances to October after topping the New York Yankees in two out of three contests at the Rogers Centre.
In the final game of that set, Marcus Stroman proved he is ready to make his mark in the postseason. The 24-year-old shut out the Yankees in seven innings of work and has now allowed just four earned runs in his three starts this season.
With only the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles left on the schedule, the Blue Jays won't face a team on the right side of .500 as they look to lock up the East.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
New York Yankees (83-68; 3.5 games back in the AL East and four games up for the first wild-card spot)
The Yankees' chances of taking the East took a big hit after the club dropped two out of three in its final series against the Blue Jays.
With a four-game advantage over the Houston Astros for the top wild-card berth, the Yankees are in excellent shape when it comes to making the postseason. The pressing issue for New York is whether staff ace Masahiro Tanaka will be ready to go for that win-or-go-home clash.
The Japanese right-hander had to miss his most recent start after sustaining a right hamstring strain, but manager Joe Girardi told David Waldstein of the New York Times that "hopefully he'll just miss the one turn."
Playoff Chances: 97 Percent
Baltimore Orioles (75-76; 11.5 games back in the AL East and four games back for the second wild-card)
Trailing the second wild-card spot by four games with just 11 games left on the docket, the Baltimore Orioles have zero room for error.
The good news for the O's is the club has been playing excellent ball as of late, racking up seven wins in its last 10 contests. The bad news for Baltimore is seven of its final 11 games will come against AL East heavyweights in the form of the Blue Jays and Yankees.
Playoff Chances: 1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays (74-78)
Boston Red Sox (72-79)
NL West
4 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers: (86-65; Seven games up in the NL West)
When Yogi Berra proclaimed, "It ain't over till it's over," the legendary catcher wasn't talking about the NL West. But he might as well have been.
With the Los Angeles Dodgers having lost four of their last five, the door remains slightly ajar for the San Francisco Giants, who have a knack for orchestrating improbable comebacks.
With a four-game set looming with their division rivals next week, the Dodgers received some unfortunate news on the injury front. Zack Greinke, who is sporting a 1.65 ERA, had to miss his start Wednesday due to a sore calf, according to the club's Twitter account. The Cy Young Award front-runner is expected to return to the rotation for his next outing.
Playoff Chances: 99 Percent
San Francisco Giants (79-72; Seven games back in the NL West and 9.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
Just ask Bruce Bochy, the managerial wizard of the Giants. The second-place club has thrown in no towels.
"We're still alive," Bochy explained, via Richard Justice of MLB.com. "You never know."
The odds remain stacked heavily against the reigning champs, but the schedule plays into the Giants' favor. Starting Sept. 28, San Francisco hosts the Dodgers for four games at AT&T Park. This season, the Giants have swept the Dodgers in a pair of three-game sets in their building.
If this race is still going on when Los Angeles arrives at Third and King, the Dodgers will be facing all sorts of pressure.
Playoff Chances: 1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Arizona Diamondbacks (73-79)
San Diego Padres (71-81)
Colorado Rockies (63-89)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals: (96-56; Four games up in the NL Central)
The St. Louis Cardinals are in.
What's crazy is that even though the club has racked up the most wins in baseball (96), the Cards have yet to actually clinch the NL Central crown. With 10 games to go, the division leaders own a four-game advantage over the Pittsburgh Pirates.
On Sept. 28, the Cardinals will travel to PNC Park for a decisive set with their division rivals. St. Louis will have to navigate that challenge and the rest of the regular-season slate without the help of Yadier Molina, who recently tore his left thumb ligament.
"I was expecting worse," Molina told the Associated Press, via ESPN.com. "Five, seven, 10 days, whatever it is, but no surgery. That was good news."
The loss of Molina is just the latest, and potentially the most significant, injury setback for St. Louis in a season in which the club just can't seem to keep its players healthy and on the diamond.
One positive for St. Louis is the team will be playing a favorable schedule, as seven of 10 games come against the Milwaukee Brewers and Atlanta Braves.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (92-60; Four games back in the NL Central and three games up for the first wild-card spot)
While the Pirates are officially a lock to advance to October, there's still a lot left to be decided between now and Oct. 4.
With a big series against St. Louis, the squad could still steal the Central title. Recent history suggests such a scenario isn't out of the question. In 2015, the Pirates have a 50-25 record in Pittsburgh, which is the second-best mark at home.
At the same time, it's also possible the team could tumble into the second wild-card spot. This weekend, the Pirates visit Wrigley for a crucial three-game series with the Chicago Cubs. And the team will have to play that series—and the rest of the season—without rookie star Jung Ho Kang.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Chicago Cubs: (89-63; Seven games back in the NL Central and 9.5 games up for the second wild-card spot)
With a commanding 9.5-game advantage in the chase for the second wild-card, the Chicago Cubs have all but punched the organization's ticket to October for the first time since 2008.
What's left to be determined is where the Cubs will be playing that win-or-go home clash. Wherever Chicago ends up in the wild-card standings, it's difficult to think of a better pitcher for such a contest than Jake Arrieta.
The right-hander has ripped off a 0.48 ERA since Aug. 4, which is the fourth-best mark over a 10-game stretch since ERA became an official stat in 1913, according to the Elias Sports Bureau, via ESPN Stats & Info.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Non-Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers (64-88)
Cincinnati Reds (63-88)
NL East
6 of 6
Contenders
New York Mets: (85-67; 6.5 games up in the NL East)
With six losses in the club's last eight games, the New York Mets are making this race way more interesting than it needs to be.
The club's untimely mini-funk coincides with the recent downturn of Yoenis Cespedes, who clocks in with a .192 average in his last seven contests. Fortunately for the Mets, the team is about to embark upon a seven-game stretch against the last-place Cincinnati Reds and the last-place Philadelphia Phillies.
But the team better take care of business during that run because the Washington Nationals are looming after that.
Playoff Chances: 99.9 Percent
Washington Nationals (78-73; 6.5 games back in the NL East and 10.5 games back for the second-wild card)
The clock is ticking on manager Matt Williams and the Washington Nationals.
General manager Mike Rizzo wouldn't say if the skipper will be back in 2016 in an interview with Grant Paulsen and Danny Rouhier on 106.7 The Fan, via Chris Lingebach of CBS DC:
"Well, we're going to certainly evaluate everything that went right and went wrong this season, after the season."
A lot is going to have to go right down the stretch if the Nats are going to be making an unexpected postseason appearance.
First, Washington will have to cut into New York's 6.5-game advantage by beating up on the Baltimore Orioles, Phillies, Reds and Atlanta Braves. Then, the club will have to sweep aside the Mets in a season-ending three-game series at Citi.
That's a lot to ask for. And for that reason, Washington's postseason chances are the slimmest of any team listed.
Playoff Chances: 0.1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (65-87)
Atlanta Braves (62-91)
Philadelphia Phillies (57-95)
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
