Updated 2015 MLB Playoff Chances with Just 3 Weeks to Go
Thanks to the brilliance of Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, the Los Angeles Dodgers are one of the October hopefuls whose 2015 MLB playoff chances have been on the rise over the past couple of weeks.
Like we did at the beginning of September, it's time to check in on the state of the postseason chases and figure out which teams have the best chance of advancing. In the process of setting the percentages, four primary factors were taken into consideration:
- The current standings
- Recent play
- Injuries
- The remaining schedule
Obviously, no percentages will be given for teams that have already been eliminated from the playoffs. There are also a few clubs that are still mathematically in the race, but whose poor play on the field and unfavorable position in the standings render them non-factors in the postseason conversation.
The San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals were a couple of teams that were right on the verge of falling into that camp. Ultimately, the second-place squads have been labeled contenders because they still have the opportunity to face the teams that are they chasing before the end of the season.
AL West
1 of 6
Contenders
Texas Rangers: (78-67; 1.5 games up in the AL West)
With a 20-10 record in the club's last 30 games, the Texas Rangers are flying along at just the right moment. Thanks to that impressive run, manager Jeff Banister's club has barged into first place in the American League West.
While the summer acquisition of Cole Hamels was something of a head-scratcher at the time of the deal, general manager Jon Daniels' blockbuster splash is looking brilliant as October looms. As Jorge L. Ortiz of USA Today noted, Texas has won each of the lefty ace's past six starts.
Playoff Chances: 90 Percent
Houston Astros: (77-69; 1.5 games back in the AL West and 1.5 games up for the second wild-card spot)
It looks like it was a tad ambitious to tab the Houston Astros' postseason chances at 99 percent last time around.
With a 3-7 mark in the club's last 10 contests, the Astros have slumped into second place in the division standings. An ongoing issue for skipper A.J. Hinch's squad is that the Astros have been awful on the road. Houston's 29-45 mark away from Minute Maid Park is tied for the worst record in the AL.
Houston still has four head-to-head matchups left against the Rangers, and three of those game will be at home for the second-place club.
Playoff Chances: 75 Percent
Los Angeles Angels: (73-72; 5 games back in the AL West and 3.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
A fundamental inability to get on the board remains the key weakness of the Los Angeles Angels. The club ranks No. 29 in runs since the All-Star break and checked in at the No. 28 spot in September.
While the Halos' October hopes are rapidly evaporating, the schedule will at least give the Angels a chance to make a late push for a playoff berth. Los Angeles still has 10 games left against the three teams that the club is directly trailing in the standings.
Before the end of the campaign, the Angels will play three-game sets against the Minnesota Twins and Astros and will battle the Rangers for four games. One complication is that all 10 of those games will be on the road, where the Angels are sporting a 29-41 mark away from the Big A.
Playoff Chances: 10 Percent
Non-Contenders
Seattle Mariners: (71-76)
Oakland Athletics: (63-84)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Kansas City Royals: (85-60; 10 games up in the AL Central)
The Kansas City Royals own a commanding 10-game edge in the AL Central, but not all is well at Kauffman Stadium.
Johnny Cueto, who is lugging around a 9.39 ERA in three September outings, remains the organization's top concern.
“We just want him to get back to being Johnny Cueto,” manager Ned Yost explained to Andy McCullough of the Kansas City Star.
To be fair, Cueto is far from the only Royals pitcher who has been struggling. This month, the staff has run up a 5.98 ERA, which ranks No. 27 in the majors.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Minnesota Twins: (75-70; 10 games back in the AL Central and 1.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
The Minnesota Twins just refuse to go away in the wild-card chase.
The pitching staff, which has struggled for much of the season (No. 21 in ERA), has been stepping up over the past couple of weeks. In September, the group ranks No. 11 in the majors in ERA.
At the dish, Miguel Sano continues to be a driving force for the Twins. The 22-year-old, who has cracked 16 home runs in his first 62 big league games, continues to elbow his way into the AL Rookie of the Year conversation.
Playoff Chances: 25 Percent
Cleveland Indians (72-72; 12.5 games back in the AL Central and 4 games back for the second wild-card spot)
Even with a .500 record, the Cleveland Indians aren't done just yet.
The Tribe are just four games out of the second wild-card spot, and as is the case with the Twins, a dynamic rookie has helped spark the club into contention.
Along with Sano, Francisco Lindor has asserted himself as one of the Rookie of the Year front-runners. The switch-hitter clocks in with a .339 average in his last 15 games and has also been a standout in the field. According to FanGraphs, Lindor has saved the Indians seven runs in the field, which is tied for the most among all AL shortstops.
Cleveland won't play the New York Yankees and the Houston Astros—the two clubs that currently sit in the wild-card positions—but the AL Central squad does have seven games left against the Twins.
Playoff Chances: 7.5 Percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (69-76)
Detroit Tigers (67-78)
AL East
3 of 6
Contenders
Toronto Blue Jays: (83-62; 3 games up in the AL East)
The Toronto Blue Jays will have to make do without Troy Tulowitzki as the club looks to maintain its perch atop the standings in the East.
According to Bruce Arthur of the Toronto Sun, "the early, early timeline" for the shortstop could be two to three weeks after he sustained a small crack in his left shoulder blade and bruising in his upper back on September 12.
While losing Tulo is far from ideal, it's worth noting that the vet wasn't exactly tearing it up, as he logged a .213 average in the past 30 games.
A bigger concern for the Jays is that the pitching staff has started to fall back to earth. After posting a 2.83 ERA in August, that figure has ballooned to 4.63 in the opening weeks of September.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
New York Yankees: (80-65; 3 games back in the AL East and 3.5 games up for the first wild-card spot)
The New York Yankees are dealing with an injury problem as well. Alex Rodriguez has been diagnosed with a bone bruise in his left knee that he suffered after sliding into home on September 13, per George A. King III of the New York Post.
The 40-year-old is playing through the injury, which is great news for the Yankees as the club can ill afford to lose A-Rod. In September, the designated hitter has already connected on six bombs and now has 32 home runs on the year.
The best opportunity for Rodriguez and the Yanks to take a bite out of the Jays' lead comes next week, as the AL East clubs meet for a three-game series at the Rogers Centre starting on September 21.
Even if New York can't catch Toronto, the team is in a strong position in the wild-card chase. With 16 games to go, the Yankees hold a 3.5-game advantage over the reeling Houston Astros for the top spot.
Playoff Chances: 90 Percent
Baltimore Orioles: (71-74; 12 games back in the AL East and 5.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
Twelve games out in the division, the Baltimore Orioles' only hope for October baseball is a late charge for a wild-card berth.
After a disastrous August, the O's have been playing better ball of late, going 6-4 in the club's last 10 contests. But with the Yankees, Astros, Minnesota Twins, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Indians all ahead of the Orioles in the wild-card standings, the odds are definitely not in the club's favor.
Playoff Chances: 1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Tampa Bay Rays: (70-75)
Boston Red Sox: (69-76)
NL West
4 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers: (84-61; 7.5 games up in the NL West)
Winners of nine of their last 12, the Los Angeles Dodgers just won't let the San Francisco Giants back into the NL West race.
That strong September showing is especially noteworthy considering that the lineup has been without Yasiel Puig, Kike Hernandez and Howie Kendrick, who are all on the shelf.
Then again, it's easy to pile up W's with a rotation anchored by Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw. In their six starts this month, the Cy Young hopefuls have combined to allow just seven earned runs.
Playoff Chances: 98 Percent
San Francisco Giants: (77-69; 7.5 games back in the NL West and 8 games back for the second wild-card spot)
The Giants' postseason chances have taken a dive over the past couple of weeks.
Who knows where the Giants would be if not for unfortunate injuries to key cogs like Joe Panik and Hunter Pence. Panik has officially been shut down for the season after a back injury landed him on the 60-day disabled list, per the team's Twitter account. However, there's still a chance that Pence could return.
According to Chris Haft of MLB.com, manager Bruce Bochy said it's possible that the right fielder could be back in the lineup for the final homestand of the year.
The club's first opponent on that homestand will be the Los Angeles Dodgers. But if that four-game series is going to have any significance in the postseason race, the Giants will have to cut into the Dodgers' 7.5-game lead before then.
Playoff Chances: 2 Percent
Non-Contenders
Arizona Diamondbacks: (69-77)
San Diego Padres: (69-78)
Colorado Rockies: (61-85)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals: (91-54; 4.5 games up in the NL Central)
The St. Louis Cardinals are the only team in baseball that has surpassed the 90-win plateau, but there's still work to be done before the club secures the NL Central crown.
With the Cards focused on holding off the Pittsburgh Pirates in the division, the big concern is the squad's suspect offense. This month, the Cardinals are second-to-last in the majors in runs (48). The power has been lacking too, as St. Louis' 11 jacks rank No. 27.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Pittsburgh Pirates: (87-59; 4.5 games back in the NL Central and 2 games up for the first wild-card spot)
Right now, the Pirates are careening toward a win-or-go-home wild-card matchup against the Chicago Cubs. But there's still time for the Bucs to avoid that fate.
The Pirates are slated to play the Cardinals in a three-game set at PNC Park beginning on September 28 in the second-to-last series of the year.
The meeting between the division rivals could prove to the decisive moment in the race for the top spot in the Central. The Pirates will be glad to be meeting the Cards at PNC, as the club's 50-24 record in Pittsburgh is tied for the best home mark in baseball.
Playoff Chances: 100 Percent
Chicago Cubs: (85-61; 6.5 games back in the NL Central and 8 games up for the second wild-card spot)
With a eight-game lead over the San Francisco Giants for the second wild-card spot, the Chicago Cubs are in a great position as the season winds down.
Just as the Pirates are angling to catch the Cardinals, the Cubs are angling to catch the Bucs for the top wild-card spot. Chicago sits three games back of Pittsburgh in the standings but still faces off against the Pirates on four occasions, including three games at Wrigley Field.
Whichever wild-card berth the Cubs end up claiming, Jake Arrieta is the logical candidate to pitch Chicago into the NL Division Series. Since the All-Star break, the righty has reeled off a 0.95 ERA. Per the StatsCentre Twitter account, that's the lowest ERA for any starter in the second half since 2012.
Playoff Chances: 95 Percent
Non-Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers: (62-83)
Cincinnati Reds: (61-84)
NL East
6 of 6
Contenders
New York Mets: (83-63; 7.5 games up in the NL East)
The New York Mets' postseason chances have gone up considerably since we last checked in, as the club is on the verge of winning its first NL East title since way back in 2006.
With the Mets cruising toward October, Yoenis Cespedes continues to headline an offense that has become downright dynamic. The Cuban has been on fire in September, as he's smashed nine bombs and logged an .899 slugging percentage in 15 games. And Cespedes is far from the only Met who's been raking, as the club leads baseball with 88 runs this month.
Playoff Chances: 99 Percent
Washington Nationals: (75-70; 7.5 games back in the NL East and 9.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
With the Washington Nationals 7.5 games back in the East and 9.5 games off the second wild-card bid, it's going to take a miracle for this club to steal a postseason spot.
Even with the Nats in serious trouble, Bryce Harper recently offered praise for Matt Williams, the club's much-maligned skipper.
"I love him as a manager. If I didn't, everybody would know it," Harper said, per ESPN.com. "He wants us to be perfect, and I love that."
The Nats will have to be nearly perfect down the stretch if the club is going to have any chance of catching the Mets.
The remaining schedule will provide Washington with plenty of chances to pick up wins, as 10 of the team's final 17 games come against the Miami Marlins, Philadelphia Phillies, Cincinnati Reds and Atlanta Braves. Washington then closes out the campaign by traveling to Citi Field to face New York for three games.
Playoff Chances: 1 Percent
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (63-83)
Atlanta Braves (57-89)
Philadelphia Phillies (56-91)
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
