Updated 2015 MLB Playoff Odds with Just 4 Weeks to Go
While the Kansas City Royals have crushed the competition in the American League Central, there's still a lot left to be decided in the other five divisions and the two wild-card chases.
Aside from the Royals, no division leader has more than a 6.5-game edge. And the AL wild-card picture, in particular, remains murky. In the process of setting 2015 MLB playoff odds, four primary factors were taken into consideration:
- The current standings
- Recent play
- The injury situation of each club
- The remaining schedule
The idea was to focus on teams that have a realistic shot at making it to the postseason. As a result, certain clubs have been labelled "non-contenders" and haven't been given postseason odds. Even though none of those teams have been mathematically eliminated from the race just yet, they have all either long since toppled out of the playoff conversation or sold off top players.
Of course, there are also plenty of teams at the opposite end of the spectrum that are in great shape as the playoffs loom. One squad that significantly boosted its postseason chances this week was the Los Angeles Dodgers. And a lot of the credit for that goes to Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw.
AL West
1 of 6
Contenders
Houston Astros (73-61; Two games up in the AL West)
The drought is almost over.
With the Houston Astros holding a two-game edge in the AL West, manager A.J. Hinch's squad is in an excellent spot to earn its first postseason trip since 2005. While a wild-card berth looks like a worst-case scenario for the club, there's still work to be done before the Astros lock up the division crown.
In the closing weeks of the season, the squad has two series against both the Texas Rangers and Los Angeles Angels—the two teams directly trailing Houston in the standings.
Playoff Chances: 99 percent
Texas Rangers (70-62; Two games back in the AL West and 1.5 games up for the second wild-card spot)
The Texas Rangers are in a great position as either the division title or a wild-card spot remains a highly obtainable goal.
In the second half, hitters like Shin-Soo Choo (.939 OPS) and Rougned Odor (.924 OPS) have powered an offense that has really clicked (No. 5 in MLB in runs). But the pitching staff looms as a potential issue for the Rangers. Since the All-Star break, Texas ranks No. 23 in ERA (4.59) in the majors.
Playoff Chances: 80 percent
Los Angeles Angels (67-66; 5.5 games back in the AL West and 3.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
The Los Angeles Angels' postseason chances took a serious hit after they slumped through a brutal August.
Last month, the AL West club was last in the majors in runs (86) and checked in with a .221/.281/.344 slash line. The Angels have begun to get back on track, winning the first two games after the calendar flipped to September. But now the Halos embark on a string of nine games against teams that are over .500 in the Rangers, Los Angeles Dodgers and Astros.
Playoff Chances: 20 percent
Non-Contenders
Seattle Mariners (63-71)
Oakland Athletics (58-76)
AL Central
2 of 6
Contenders
Kansas City Royals (82-51; 13 games up in the AL Central)
With a commanding 13-game lead in the division, the Kansas City Royals are cruising toward October.
However, Johnny Cueto definitely is not cruising. The summer addition hasn't been remotely ace-like for the Royals in his past three starts. Cueto has lost each of those decisions, serving up 16 runs in 17 innings of work. For his part, Cueto isn't worried about his recent funk, as he explained to the Associated Press (via FoxSports.com).
"This is obviously part of the game," Cueto said through an interpreter. "Every player has a streak like this. I'm not concerned because I'm well aware that this is going to turn around and I'm going to help this team."
With the AL Central race effectively over, getting Cueto back to his vintage form is priority No. 1 for the Royals as October approaches.
Playoff Chances: 99.9 percent
Minnesota Twins (69-64; 13 games back in the AL Central and 1.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
No player better embodies the upstart Minnesota Twins than masher Miguel Sano.
The 22-year-old has helped transform the Twins from afterthought to legitimate October contender. Sano was tabbed as the player of the month in August after crushing nine home runs and posting a .629 slugging percentage, per the MLB Communications Twitter account. In 52 games, Sano has gone yard 15 times.
With Sano and the Twins having won 10 of 13, there's no question that this team is trending in the right direction at just the right moment.
Playoff Chances: 33 percent
Cleveland Indians (64-68; 17.5 games back in the AL Central and six games back for the second wild-card spot)
Don't bury the Cleveland Indians just yet.
The Tribe was a non-factor in the postseason discussion for most of the year, but Cleveland has quietly been making a last-minute charge for a wild-card spot. The Indians won seven of eight to close out August, but then promptly dropped the first two games in September.
With the New York Yankees, Texas Rangers, Twins, Tampa Bay Rays and Los Angeles Angels all standing ahead of Cleveland in the wild-card chase, the club is going to need some help if it's going to steal a playoff spot.
Playoff Chances: 10 percent
Non-Contenders
Chicago White Sox (62-70)
Detroit Tigers (61-72)
AL East
3 of 6
Contenders
Toronto Blue Jays (76-57; 1.5 games up in the AL East)
The Toronto Blue Jays are scary.
Winners of 12 of 15, the AL East front-runners just can't be stopped. Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion headline an offense that has scored 84 more runs than any other team, and the pitching staff has asserted itself as one of the most reliable in the AL.
Since the All-Star break, Toronto's arms lead the circuit with a 2.75 ERA. And the group is about to get even better, as Marcus Stroman continues his speedy return from a torn ACL. Per Gregor Chisholm of MLB.com, Stroman threw 4.2 innings of no-hit ball in his first official rehab start Wednesday.
Playoff Chances: 99 percent
New York Yankees (74-58; 1.5 games back in the AL East and four games up for the first wild-card)
The bad news for the New York Yankees is that the Blue Jays simply won't stop winning. The good news is the Yankees have seven head-to-head clashes against Toronto remaining, including a four-game set in the Bronx starting Sept. 10.
New York also has a favorable schedule to close out the season, as the club will play the Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox and Baltimore Orioles in its final three series.
Playoff Chances: 90 percent
Tampa Bay Rays (66-67; 10 games back in the AL East and 4.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
With the Tampa Bay Rays trailing Toronto by 10 games in the East, it's going to be wild-card or bust for this team.
The key to success for the Rays has been the club's unheralded but highly effective pitching staff. In 2015, the group ranks third in the AL in ERA (3.68). No pitcher has been more effective for Tampa Bay than Chris Archer. With a 2.78 ERA and an 11.1 strikeout-per-nine ratio, Archer is not only helping keep the Rays afloat in the race but is also making a dark-horse bid to become the AL Cy Young Award winner.
Playoff Chances: 25 Percent
Baltimore Orioles: (64-69; 12 games back in the AL East and 6.5 games back for the second wild-card spot)
Losers of 12 of 14, the Baltimore Orioles are in a full-on tailspin. As bad as things have gotten at Camden Yards, it might get even worse for the O's. The club is about to begin a nine-game stretch against the Blue Jays, Yankees and Kansas City Royals.
Playoff Chances: Five percent
Non-Contender
Boston Red Sox (61-72)
NL West
4 of 6
Contenders
Los Angeles Dodgers (75-58; 6.5 games up in the NL West)
Apparently Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw are planning to carry the Los Angeles Dodgers to the NL West title.
In the club's recently completed three-game sweep of the San Francisco Giants, the aces combined to allow just two earned runs in 16.1 innings of work.
The brilliance of Greinke and Kershaw has allowed the Dodgers to build up a 6.5-game advantage over the Giants even though the squad is making do without Yasiel Puig, Howie Kendrick and Kike Hernandez, who are all sitting on the DL with hamstring injuries.
Playoff Chances: 90 percent
San Francisco Giants (69-65; 6.5 games back in the NL West and 7.5 games back of the second wild-card spot)
It's never wise to count out the Giants, but it sure isn't looking good for the defending champs.
As is the case with the Dodgers, San Francisco has been hampered by injuries. None has hurt more than the loss of star right fielder and emotional leader Hunter Pence. When the 32-year-old starts, the Giants are 34-17, but when he misses out the club is 35-48.
Pence has been sidelined since the middle of August with an oblique injury, and it remains to be seen just when he'll be back on the diamond. According to Chris Haft of MLB.com, Pence's rehab is "proceeding gingerly."
Playoff Chances: 10 percent
Non-Contenders
Arizona Diamondbacks (65-70)
San Diego Padres (65-69)
Colorado Rockies (55-78)
NL Central
5 of 6
Contenders
St. Louis Cardinals (86-47; 6.5 games up in the NL Central)
The St. Louis Cardinals have ripped off the best record in the bigs (86-47) thanks to a pitching staff that has been historically dominant. With a team ERA of 2.67, the Cards are on the way to becoming the first club since 1989 to post a sub-3.00 ERA, per Adam Gilfix of the Washington Post.
But even with all that pitching and all those wins, St. Louis hasn't been able to shake the Pittsburgh Pirates just yet. The NL Central rivals are set to face off six more times this season, including a three-game set beginning Friday.
Playoff Chances: 99.9 percent
Pittsburgh Pirates (79-53; 6.5 games back in the NL Central and 3.5 game up for the first wild-card spot)
Owners of a 79-53 record, the Pittsburgh Pirates are the best second-place team in the majors.
Unsurprisingly, Andrew McCutchen has played a prominent role in the Bucs' impressive 2015 campaign. The center fielder has been making a second-half push for the NL MVP, posting a .982 OPS since the All-Star break.
While McCutchen has been raking, the pitching staff has not been nearly as strong in the second half. Before the Midsummer Classic, the group checked in with a 2.86 ERA, which was second in baseball. But in the second half, that figure stands at 3.93 (No. 10 in the majors).
Playoff Chances: 90 percent
Chicago Cubs (76-57; 10 games back in the NL Central and 7.5 games up for the second wild-card spot)
With October looming, the Chicago Cubs are looking awfully dangerous.
At the plate, the Cubs have been getting some monster contributions from rookies Kyle Schwarber and Kris Bryant, who have combined to hit 22 homers since the All-Star break.
On the mound, Jake Arrieta has been flat-out electric, as the righty is sporting a 6-0 record and a 0.74 ERA in his last seven outings. The way he's been dealing, Arrieta is just the pitcher to get the Cubs past the one-game wild-card playoff and into the NL Division Series.
Playoff Chances: 85 percent
Non-Contenders
Milwaukee Brewers (58-75)
Cincinnati Reds (55-77)
NL East
6 of 6
Contenders
New York Mets (74-59; six games up in the NL East)
With four weeks to go, the New York Mets are on track to win the NL East for the first time since 2006. While the starting rotation grabs most of the headlines, the impact Yoenis Cespedes has made since landing in Queens on August 1 can't be ignored.
As noted by ESPN Stats & Info, the Cuban has connected on eight home runs in the past 13 games prior to September 3. Cespedes will be a great guy to have around if the Mets hold on to win the East. In 10 career postseason contests, he owns a .350 average and a .920 OPS.
Playoff Chances: 90 percent
Washington Nationals (68-65; six games back in the NL East and eight games back for the second wild-card spot)
Bryce Harper has done everything he can to stop the reeling Washington Nationals from dropping out of the race altogether. Even with the Nats staring at a six-game deficit in the division chase, the 22-year-old is playing it cool.
"We got a whole month of the season left to get rolling and hopefully get in contention," Harper told Bob Nightengale of USA Today. "And if we do that, then maybe we can shock the world."
The way that the schedule shakes out, the game's biggest underachievers still have an outside chance at doing just that. In the final series of the season, the Nats will travel to Citi Field to clash with New York in a three-game set. Of course, the Nats will have to take a bite out of the Mets' lead before that series rolls around.
Playoff Chances: 10 percent
Non-Contenders
Miami Marlins (55-79)
Atlanta Braves (54-80)
Philadelphia Phillies (53-81)
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
