NFL Week 1 Picks: Top Experts' Predictions Around the Web

All the New England Patriots do is win, no matter what.

In the hotly anticipated opening game of the 2015 NFL season, Tom Brady threw four touchdowns, Rob Gronkowski caught three of them—immediately soaring to the top of the most polarizing fantasy football player power rankings—and the Pats mostly had their way with the Pittsburgh Steelers in a 28-21 home win.

Steelers versus Patriots is in the books, but that was just the table-setter. Week 1 still has the historic rookie quarterback duel between Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, Dallas versus New York Giants on Sunday night, Chip Kelly's retooled roster looking to take charge of his conventional wisdom-flouting schemes and much, much more.

Let's take a look at which teams a few experts from around the web think will start the 2015 season off right.

Matchup	Matt Miller, B/R	Jason La Canfora, CBS Sports	Merril Hoge, ESPN	Elliot Harrison, NFL.com	Ryan Van Bibber, SB Nation	Consensus (# of votes from all listed contributors at each site)
IND vs. BUF	IND	BUF	IND	IND	IND	IND 21-16
GB vs. CHI	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB	GB 35-2
KC vs. HOU	HOU	HOU	HOU	KC	HOU	HOU 19-18
CAR vs. JAX	CAR	CAR	CAR	CAR	JAX	CAR 20-17
CLE vs. NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ	NYJ 30-7
SEA vs. STL	SEA	SEA	STL	SEA	SEA	SEA 28-9
MIA vs. WAS	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA	MIA 36-1
NO vs. ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI	ARI 28-9
DET vs. SD	DET	SD	SD	SD	SD	SD 31-6
BAL vs. DEN	BAL	BAL	DEN	DEN	BAL	DEN 30-7
CIN vs. OAK	CIN	CIN	OAK	CIN	CIN	CIN 27-10
TEN vs. TB	TB	TEN	TEN	TB	TB	TB 22-15
NYG vs. DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL	DAL 33-4
PHI vs. ATL	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI	PHI 27-10
MIN vs. SF	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN	MIN 32-5

Note: Picks come from Bleacher Report, NFL.com, ESPN, CBS Sports and SB Nation. 


Tough Calls

Tennessee Titans at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

For two teams coming off 2-14 seasons and needing improvement in just about every facet of the game, this could be a stop-and-start, low-scoring affair. The Bucs and Titans finished 29th and 30th respectively in scoring last season. The experts tallied above weren't quite as split here as they were on the Indianapolis-Buffalo game, but this matchup has the better storyline.

Don Juan Moore/Getty Images

This might not be the best contest from a competition standpoint, but I defy any football fan to admit they aren't at least a little bit curious as to how the battle of the No. 1 and No. 2 picks from this year's draft shakes out.

In something of a reversal of their reputations coming out of college, Mariota has looked like the more polished passer in preseason (102.9 rating to 52.7), while Winston has made more plays with his legs (24 yards to Mariota's 17, plus two touchdowns). Those performances aren't necessarily going to carry over into the regular season, but they add yet another level of uncertainty as to how these two will look in their first game.

Both Mariota and Winston will likely make their fair share of mistakes, as the pressure and speed of the NFL gets to them. Winston, at least, has the comfort of playing in friendly confines.

Frederick Breedon/Getty Images

Mariota's task is unlocking Tampa Bay's Cover 2 scheme. It's a defense designed to limit big plays. Mariota has a fine checkdown option in Delanie Walker and the legs to make something out of nothing. However, it may be too much to expect him to dink-and-dunk his way down the field without stalling out.

Linebacker Brian Orakpo, a new addition to the Titans this year, sees the Bucs throwing some wrinkles into their simple scheme to meddle with Mariota, per ESPN's Paul Kuharsky: "They’re going to do something special for Marcus to kind of mix it up on him. Coach Lovie Smith has had great defense for years. I’m pretty sure they’re going to be ready for Mariota."

The Titans will be hoping Orakpo and company can create pressure and force Winston into making mistakes. The Florida State alum threw two picks in the preseason. He's also made some very nice throws, but there's a mistake or two in him in this contest.

This game will likely hinge on whichever quarterback is able to limit their flubs the best.


Kansas City at Houston

Jonathan Bachman/Associated Press

This game could end up being a matter of which team keep's its quarterback's jersey cleanest. Both the Texans and Chiefs feature homewreckers in J.J. Watt and Justin Houston respectively. The Texans have surrounded Watt with complementary players, such as space-eater Vince Wilfork and a (hopefully) healthy Jadeveon Clowney.

Between those three and the terrifying Brian Cushing at linebacker, this group could make life very difficult for Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith and star running back Jamaal Charles.

The picture isn't quite as rosy on offense. Star running back Arian Foster is out for the time being, although second-year back Alfred Blue is a capable replacement. Andre Johnson is now in Indianapolis, leaving DeAndre Hopkins to shoulder the load in the passing game.

Hopkins busted out last season with 1,210 receiving yards and six scores, but quarterback is a question mark this year, via Fox Sports:

"Brian Hoyer is slated to throw to Hopkins after winning a training camp duel with Ryan Mallett. Hoyer made 13 of his 17 career starts for Cleveland in 2014, posting a 76.5 passer rating that ranked third-worst among qualifying QBs."

Unless Hoyer quickly learns how to play the role of hero, this offense could struggle. If the line is shaky and Hoyer has trouble getting the ball out quickly, Houston—who racked up 22 sacks last season—could have him for lunch.

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

Even if Hoyer is kept upright, he still has to deal with a secondary that allowed just 203.3 passing yards per game last season and will see the emotional return of three-time Pro Bowl safety Eric Berry, who is back in the fold after missing time treating Hodgkin lymphoma.

"I’m just going to go out and ball,” Berry said, relayed by B.J. Kissel of the team's official site. “That’s what I’m going to do. I’m prepared for whatever. My main focus is just going out there, balling and helping my teammates out and just flying around.”

The Texans have the indomitable Watt, pockets of talent and that Hard Knocks swagger, but the Chiefs have seemingly just as many puzzle pieces in place and will make this a close game.

Carolina at Jacksonville

Mike McCarn/Associated Press

You take one star wide receiver away from a team, and all of sudden everyone starts picking Jacksonville against them.

There's certainly more troubling Carolina than the loss of last year's rookie pass-catching sensation, Kelvin Benjamin, to a season-ending knee injury. The running game is now without DeAngelo Williams, long the lighting to Jonathan Stewart's thunder, and Cam Newton—for all his physical gifts—has been mostly treading water as a quarterback in his four-year career.

Season	COMP/ATT	CMP %	YDS	TD/INT	QBR
2011	310/517	60.0	4,051	21/17	56.2
2012	280/485	57.7	3,869	19/12	57.6
2013	292/473	61.7	3,379	24/13	61.1
2014	262/448	58.5	3,127	18/12	54.4

It will be difficult for him to turn the corner with a shaky running game and the likes of Ted Ginn Jr. and Philly Brown as starting wideouts. However, he does have tight end Greg Olsen, who racked up 1,008 yards and six TDs last season.

The Panthers defense, led by Luke Kuechly, should be solid and looking to improve on their 15th-ranked DVOA (defensive value over average) from last season, per Football Outsiders.

But why pick Jacksonville, a team featuring second-year Blake Bortles at quarterback and coming off a 3-13 season?

Well, they're at home, and the Panthers weren't exactly inspiring with a 7-8-1 record last season. After a year of rude introductions to life in the NFL, Bortles should be wiser and less error prone. In his first seven games last season, Bortles tossed 13 picks. In his next seven, he threw just four.

Bortles is also growing up alongside a hungry young group of wide receivers in Allen Robinson, Allen Hurns and Marqise Lee, who is dealing with a hamstring injury. All three of those wideouts were rookies last year. Rookie running back T.J. Yeldon wrestled the starting job from sophomore Denard Robinson, but the latter should still see time as a dynamic change-of-pace option. 

Stephen B. Morton/Associated Press

They won't have him against the Panthers, but let's not forget tight end Julius Thomas is coming. His capable backup, Marcedes Lewis, is predicting big things for this group.

"We're going to surprise some people," Lewis said, reported by CBS Sports. "[Losing stinks], but at the same time, if you continue to focus on that, you're going to be there again. Right now, we have the right makeup in this locker room, and it's exciting to be part of it."

The Jags are young, hopeful and have nothing to lose. Their defense is still very much a work in progress and missing key players, but Carolina's offense is manageable. While Newton tried to put the Panthers on his big broad shoulders, Jacksonville's youth movement could surprise people this season by banding together and spreading the work around.