Fantasy Baseball Cut List: Top 6 Star Drops to Make for Week 23
For many fantasy baseball players, this is the end. Most head-to-head leagues start the playoffs on Monday, and rotisserie gamers tucked down the standings will need a miracle to climb into first place. Don't hold back now.
Patience is a virtue, except when big-name players are stinking up the joint with three weeks left in the season. Many decisions that would be irresponsible in June are conversely necessary in September.
As the clock ticks on 2015, standard mixed-leagues participants must juggle injuries with the looming threat of innings limit sending young starting pitchers home early. In some cases, such as the six highlighted here, it's best to cut bait now in shallow formats.
Along with last week's cuts, consider pulling the plug on these guys.
6. Taijuan Walker, SP, Seattle Mariners
1 of 6
Expect Taijuan Walker to frequent many breakout candidates lists next year. Since June 1, the 23-year-old righty has amassed 103 strikeouts and 17 walks through 111.2 innings. He especially flashed upside in June, when he posted a 2.36 ERA with 36 strikeouts and three walks.
Beneath a 4.70 ERA lies a 3.86 expected fielding independent pitching (xFIP) and 3.73 skill-interactive ERA (SIERA). His current owners feel teased by inconsistency, but that's often the norm for first-year starters. Drafters waiting on pitching will want such a young, high-upside hurler in the middle or late rounds.
For this season, however, Walker won't help much during the closing weeks. The rookie, whose 166.2 innings exceeds his previous professional high of 156.1, has faltered down the finish line. Along with allowing 31 hits and 16 earned runs over his past five starts, he has only generated 18 strikeouts.
While Seattle hasn't announced an innings cap, it's fair to anticipate his season ending early barring a surge up the standings. After facing the struggling Los Angeles Angels, his next scheduled start is at the Texas Rangers, who took him deep three times in as many innings at Safeco Field. Considering he needs to be benched for that rough bout, his owners might as well replace him with a better matchup play.
Add: Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies; Joe Kelly, Boston Red Sox
5. Victor Martinez, 1B, Detroit Tigers
2 of 6
Anyone who expected another .333, 32-homer season from Victor Martinez must be new to fantasy baseball. Otherwise, they'd be too jaded to trust an unexpected power surge from a 36-year-old veteran.
Still, a nice .300 average and 15-20 dingers would have served just fine. Even the most pessimistic pundits wouldn't have predicted a career-low .236 batting average and .292 on-base percentage. Take away his sharp contact skills, and owners are left with an unflattering nine homers and 53 RBI.
Over his last 48 games, Martinez is hitting .198. A career .302 hitter doesn't drop 66 points in average without some poor fortune. Without significant alterations in his batted-ball distributions, his batting average on balls in play (BABIP) has dived to .245. If healthy, he should find some common ground between the past two years' extremes.
Then again, these risks exist for players to derive most of their value from the most fluky offensive stat. A 10.3-percent decline in hard-hit percentage also indicates problems beyond bad luck, so Martinez is expendable in standard mixed leagues.
Add: Mark Canha, Oakland Athletics; Greg Bird, New York Yankees; Yangervis Solarte, San Diego Padres
4. Glen Perkins, RP, Minnesota Twins
3 of 6
The timing of this pick will feel odd. On Thursday, Glen Perkins offered a positive progress report on an ailing back that has limited him to two appearances over the past two weeks. That's a huge improvement from last week, when the Minneapolis Star Tribune's LaVelle E. Neal said the Minnesota Twins reliever "can barely walk."
Anyone who has held tight this long is likely clamoring for saves. One problem: Even if returns, the 32-year-old southpaw won't immediately regain his ninth-inning duties, according to the Pioneer Press' Mike Berardino.
"Twins manager Paul Molitor said once Perkins is ready to pitch, he would likely make multiple appearances in a setup capacity before reclaiming his closer role from Kevin Jepsen," Berardino wrote.
Say Perkins returns in a week, which is no certainty. That gives him two weeks, and even a heavily worked reliever is lucky to pitch every other game. So if all goes well, maybe he makes six or seven appearances. He'd be fortunate to get save chances during the final week, affording him three opportunities if he's lucky.
In a deep league where anyone sniffing saves is owned? Fine, take your chances. If Jepsen or another stop-gap option is sitting around, make the switch now. Head-to-head players might be eliminated by the time he converts another save.
Add: Kevin Jepsen, Minnesota Twins; Tom Wilhelmsen, Seattle Mariners; Sean Doolittle, Oakland Athletics
.png?w=256)
3. Jorge Soler, OF, Chicago Cubs
4 of 6
According to ESPN.com's Jesse Rogers, Jorge Soler believes he can return from an oblique injury this season. Even so, the slumping sophomore isn't worth waiting for this late in the game.
Before taking his second trip to the disabled list, the 23-year-old outfielder was hitting .265/.325/.385 with a 29.4 strikeout percentage. After going deep five times in 24 games last year, he has managed seven homers through 90 games this season.
He also offered hope with an auspicious August, notching a .388 on-base percentage with more walks (11.8 percent) and fewer strikeouts (21.8 percent). Baseball Savant also offers encouragement for a bounce-back 2016, as his 116-mph exit velocity matches Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera.
For next year? Great. Right now, there's no guarantee he comes back anytime soon. Even if he makes a brief cameo before the playoffs, that could amount to a week or two of irregular playing time. Waiting on Giancarlo Stanton is one thing, but Soler doesn't warrant such loyalty with championships at stake.
Add: Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees; Randal Grichuk, St. Louis Cardinals; Ender Inciarte, Arizona Diamondbacks
2. Matt Harvey, SP, New York Mets
5 of 6
On draft day, most people knew not to expect 200 or more innings from Matt Harvey during his return from Tommy John surgery. Yet the New York Mets never announced a hard limit or plans to shut him down, so his owners figured they'd merely have to deal with a skipped start or two.
Then chaos ensued. Agent Scott Boras cried for the Mets to end his year after 180 innings, an untimely bomb for a postseason contender. Doing damage control after the public outcry, the ace and newly appointed New York City Bureau Chief declared his intentions to pitch in the playoffs on The Players' Tribune.
Harvey has now thrown 171.2 innings this year, and complying with the 180-inning cap looks more doable after sweeping the Washington Nationals. After expanding their NL East lead to seven games, the Mets laid out a tentative blueprint that should appease everyone—except Harvey's fantasy owners.
According to Kristie Ackert of the New York Daily News, the 26-year-old will miss his next start, a juicy tilt with the Miami Marlins. The Mets will instead preserve him for next weekend's Subway Series showdown against the New York Yankees. If the division remains ups for grabs heading into their season-ending series with Washington, he'll take the mound once more.
While it makes sense to save him for the toughest opponents, it stinks from a fantasy perspective. The Yankees boast baseball's second-best weighted on-base average (.326) behind the Toronto Blue Jays, so redraft players don't need to stash Harvey for one difficult matchup and the possibility of one more start.
Add: J.A. Happ, Pittsburgh Pirates; Ervin Santana, Minnesota Twins; Patrick Corbin, Arizona Diamondbacks
1. Yasmani Grandal, C/1B, Los Angeles Dodgers
6 of 6
One hit. Over the past 31 days, Yasmani Grandal has collected one base hit in 43 at-bats.
Hard to believe from someone who led all catchers with a .399 wOBA at the All-Star break. Finally free from Petco Park, the 26-year-old seemingly turned into a top-five fantasy catcher for the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Clearly bothered by a sore shoulder, he can't even produce a single now. As a result, he has sat out the team's last four games in hopes of avoiding a longer absence.
“We’re giving him a little bit of time to calm down, and then slowly getting back into it,” Dodgers manager Don Mattingly told the Los Angeles Times' Steve Dilbeck. “Hopefully he’ll be able to play through it. It sounds like this thing is not going to totally go away during this time.”
Don't count on him offering anything else this season. Since the Midsummer Classic, his strikeout percentage has ballooned from 19.1 to 28.3 while his hard-hit percentage shrunk from 34.6 to 22.5.
Brave two-catcher players may have no alternatives, and dynasty gamers can use this injury-induced slump as a buy-low opportunity. Everyone else needs to exchange Grandal for a healthy catcher who can contribute.
Add: Miguel Montero, Chicago Cubs; Blake Swihart, Boston Red Sox; J.T. Realmuto, Miami Marlins
Note: All advanced stats courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
.png?w=480)
