Fantasy Baseball Cut List: Top 6 Star Drops to Make for Week 22
Breaking up is hard to do, especially when good times from the past challenge the ugly present. Fantasy baseball managers shared laughs and victories with these players, so what's to say they can't go back to the way things were before?
Sorry, but it's not working anymore. At least not right now. It's not us; it's them. They have abandoned us when we needed them the most, and now it's time to spend September apart. These guys are no longer helping gamers secure a championship, so it's time to show them the door.
Before beginning, a couple of caveats. These players are droppable in standard 10- or 12-team mixed leagues. Someone playing in an 18-team pool won't find a better alternative on the waiver wire.
Also, dynasty players must exude more patience. A rough patch is enough to part ways for a month, not forever. Injuries, growing pains and role changes won't necessarily carry over to 2016 and beyond, so sit tight and hide these guys on the bench.
It's going to hurt dumping someone so heavily owned. These six highlighted players either dominated earlier this season or established a positive track record before unraveling this season. Now is not the time to remain loyal in a relationship that has long turned sour.
Just remember, there are plenty of other fish (and other players outside the Miami Marlins) in the waiver-wire sea.
6. Hunter Pence, OF, San Francisco Giants
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While stashing an injured star in September, the last thing any fantasy owner wants to hear is "it's going to be a while." CSN Bay Area's Alex Pavlovic offered that bleak assessment for Hunter Pence, whose "oblique injury is worse than [the San Francisco] Giants first thought."
Manager Bruce Bochy provided a more positive report to MLB.com's Chris Haft, claiming the 32-year-old outfielder hasn't experienced any setbacks. Yet he stated, "It's going to take a little time, I think" while expressing doubts over him being able to make a rehab stint before the minor league clubs close shop soon.
Pence has played 52 games in a year marred by injuries. After starting the season on the disabled list, he debuted in mid-May, only to land back on the shelf weeks later. He lasted over a month the second time back, but it's now no certainty he returns again this season.
He remains a huge factor when healthy, hitting .275/.327/.478 with nine home runs and four stolen bases. Yet a mid-September return is probably an optimistic outlook, giving gamers no time to ease him back. If the Giants rush back the energetic veteran for their playoff run, they might not get him at 100 percent, either.
Managers with DL spots at their disposal can store him with no harm. Other owners with one injury slot, or none at all, are using a precious roster slot on someone who might not come back.
Add: Marlon Byrd, San Francisco Giants; Michael Conforto, New York Mets; Kevin Kiermaier, Tampa Bay Rays
5. Hector Santiago, SP, Los Angeles Angels
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Fast start aside, the writing was on the wall all along. Hector Santiago entered the All-Star break with a 2.33 ERA, but a conflicting 3.97 fielding independent pitching (FIP) indicated substantial room for regression.
Maybe these fancy nerd numbers matter. The Los Angeles Angels lefty has crashed during the second half, surrendering 29 earned runs over 44 innings. While fly balls have accounted for 51.5 percent of his batted balls all year, he has only recently paid for those tendencies, coughing up nine second-half homers.
Santiago hasn't pitched five innings or more since Aug. 16, allowing 24 baserunners through 10.2 innings during three subsequent starts. While his 3.37 ERA still looks fine, his FIP has hovered to 4.37. The regression gods aren't done yet.
If there's any silver lining to his dreadful second half, he has punched out a batter per inning. Then again, that matters less while also averaging over four walks per nine innings and under five innings per start.
Take away the misleading ERA, and Santiago is a replaceable fantasy starter in standard leagues. After performing over his head for months, he's plunging down to earth at an inopportune time for title contenders.
Add: Derek Holland, Texas Rangers; Carlos Rodon, Chicago White Sox; Kris Medlen, Kansas City Royals
4. Pablo Sandoval, 3B, Boston Red Sox
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From 2012-14, Pablo Sandoval never hit higher than .285 while averaging 14 homers and 71 RBI per season. A better actual player than fantasy contributor, he was always meant as roster depth for those playing beyond the standard confines.
He has managed to fade below those jaded expectations, batting .247/.294/.376 with 10 homers. This may come as a surprise, but he hasn't stolen any bases, either. He's essentially David Freese, and neither of their past postseason heroics matter anymore.
While Sandoval's .272 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) lags behind his career .308 clip, a deeper look explains why. The Kung Fu Panda also sports a 23.4 hard-hit percentage, with 29.3 percent representing his previous career low. Hitting balls in the infield may work for Dee Gordon, but the bulky third baseman can't survive on a 48.8 ground-ball percentage.
He has also chased 46.2 percent of his pitches seen outside the strike zone, which is causing contact woes for the free-swinger. Since the All-Star break, the 29-year-old is hitting .207/.268/.357 with an uncharacteristically high 18.3 strikeout percentage.
Even if he turns the corner, Sandoval at best offers decent average with intermittent power.
Add: Aramis Ramirez, Pittsburgh Pirates; Nick Castellanos, Detroit Tigers; Andres Blanco, Philadelphia Phillies
3. Jeff Samardzija, SP, Chicago White Sox
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Last year, Jeff Samardzija provided tremendous value with a 2.99 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 202 strikeouts for the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics. He somehow only finished with seven victories, but that stat carries no meaningful predictive worth.
The good news? He has amassed nine victories this year. Unfortunately, that's not progress, but another reminder to kill the win. Only the most stubborn traditionalists could look at his 4.87 ERA and not acknowledge the massive downturn.
Shark can't seem to right the ship, compounding his troubles with a 6.57 ERA after the All-Star break. Over those 63 innings, he has already surrendered 12 home runs.
While it seems outrageous to dump such a bountiful source of punchouts, Samardzija's strikeout percentage has decreased for the third consecutive year. This year, it has dipped to a career-low 18.2 percent, amounting to 6.98 strikeouts per nine innings.
Despite maintaining his newfound accuracy, his ground-ball percentage has plummeted from 50.2 to 40.3. Making matters worse, the Chicago White Sox round out their season by facing the Detroit Tigers, New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals over the final 14 games. That makes him useless as head-to-head leagues determine their championships.
Add: Raisel Iglesias, Cincinnati Reds; Drew Smyly, Tampa Bay Rays; Rick Porcello, Boston Red Sox
2. Drew Storen, RP, Washington Nationals
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Drew Storen's owners were dealt a sudden, unexpected blow when the Washington Nationals acquired Jonathan Papelbon in late July. Although the reformed righty collected 29 saves with a 1.73 ERA, Washington appeased its new acquisition by handing him the ninth inning.
Just like that, Storen sunk from a top-10 closer to a largely irrelevant fantasy option. Some players justifiably cut him on the spot, but others stood pat. After all, a high-quality setup man can help regulate ERA and WHIP while adding some strikeouts. In leagues with holds, he'd just add value to a different category.
Whether a sign of discontent or mere coincidence, Storen has unraveled since Papelbon's arrival. Dating back to August 1, he has surrendered 13 earned runs over his 13.1 innings.
The Nationals and fantasy gamers chasing holds shouldn't panic; he maintains a 2.40 FIP despite his ERA inflating to 3.12. Yet August's 31.4 hard-hit percentage, up from his season's 24.6 percent, indicates more than bad luck plaguing his recent foibles.
If searching for a lights-out middle reliever, exchange him for Keone Kela or Alex Colome. When saves aren't involved, relief pitchers are too plentiful to ride out Storen's struggles into September.
Add: Drew Pomeranz, Oakland Athletics; Bruce Rondon, Detroit Tigers; Keone Kela, Texas Rangers; Alex Colome, Tampa Bay Rays
1. Joc Pederson, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Three months ago, Joc Pederson celebrated a trip to Coors Field by homering in all four games. The rookie center fielder turned the Los Angeles Dodgers' new brain trust into geniuses for trading Matt Kemp, leaving Colorado hitting .267/.388/.606 with 17 home runs.
Since that series, he's batting .168 (38-for-226) with seven long balls. Given the warning signs at the time, it shouldn't shock anyone to see a three-true-outcomes neophyte struggle, especially in the average department. Yet even the most cynical critic wouldn't have projected the depths of his descent from fantasy superstar to scrub.
Guys with a 29.1 strikeout percentage typically don't hit for a high average, dooming him for regression after a fortuitous start. Sliding down to .211 is harsh, but his line-drive rate stands at a mediocre 15.8 percent. If he's not towering balls over fences with regularity, he's useless, especially while only swiping three bases in nine tries.
The 23-year-old fell far enough for the Dodgers to frequently bench him for the surging Kike Hernandez, who quietly notched an .842 OPS before landing on the disabled list with a left hamstring strain. A small consolation to his remaining loyalists, Pederson will now get another chance to work out of his swoon.
Yet fantasy gamers in standard, five-by-five leagues can't afford to provide him the same opportunity. Pederson has become a massive liability since his strong start. Dynasty mangers can buy low on his hard times, but redraft players need to pull the plug.
Add: Brandon Moss, St. Louis Cardinals; Khris Davis, Milwaukee Brewers; Marcell Ozuna, Miami Marlins
