NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

Before anyone can distinguish the NFL's true contenders from the pretenders, most September favorites begin the season on high upset alert.

The Buffalo Bills weren't tabbed to beat the Chicago Bears in last year's season opener, but the result hardly seems surprising in hindsight. While Buffalo cemented its first winning record (9-7) in a decade, Chicago tumbled to its worst finish (5-11) in 10 years. 

Fans and analysts have a firm enough grasp of the league to confidently project a Cincinnati Bengals victory over the Oakland Raiders. Some other matchups, however, offer much blurrier lines of which club will enjoy the better year.

And just like any other week, sheer randomness can invade the proceedings. The Miami Dolphins knocking off the New England Patriots to kick off 2014 didn't foreshadow a grand changing of the guard. Instead, New England restored normalcy all the way to a championship. 

Everyone would love to start 1-0, but a Week 1 loss isn't the end of the world. Here are predictions for the opening slate before highlighting some underdogs in line to prove Vegas spreads, via OddsShark, wrong.

Date	Away	Score Prediction	Home	Spread*
Sept. 10	Pittsburgh Steelers	24-30	New England Patriots	NE -7
Sept. 13	Indianapolis Colts	20-13	Buffalo Bills	IND -3
Sept. 13	Cleveland Browns	10-9	New York Jets	NYJ -3
Sept. 13	Carolina Panthers	16-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	CAR -3
Sept. 13	Green Bay Packers	31-23	Chicago Bears	GB -6.5
Sept. 13	Kansas City Chiefs	20-13	Houston Texans	HOU -1
Sept. 13	Miami Dolphins	27-7	Washington Redskins	MIA -4
Sept. 13	Seattle Seahawks	17-9	St. Louis Rams	SEA -4
Sept. 13	Detroit Lions	23-24	San Diego Chargers	SD -3
Sept. 13	New Orleans Saints	28-27	Arizona Cardinals	ARI -2.5
Sept. 13	Cincinnati Bengals	24-13	Oakland Raiders	CIN -3
Sept. 13	Baltimore Ravens	28-31	Denver Broncos	DEN -4.5
Sept. 13	Tennessee Titans	24-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB -3
Sept. 13	New York Giants	30-34	Dallas Cowboys	DAL -6
Sept. 14	Philadelphia Eagles	38-35	Atlanta Falcons	PHI -3
Sept. 14	Minnesota Vikings	17-12	San Francisco 49ers	MIN -3

Most Likely Upsets

Kansas City Chiefs at Houston Texans

The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans both finished 2014 at 9-7, so oddsmakers favored Houston due to its home-field advantage. Kansas City, however, deserves the edge.

Despite their identical records, Kansas City placed No. 10 in Football Outsiders' Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA). Houston ranked No. 19, below the New Orleans Saints and St. Louis Rams. Along with an inefficient offense, poor special teams play held back a strong defense led by J.J. Watt.

Also, look at the Texans' path from 2013's worst record to last year's winning finish. The seven teams they defeated—double-counting the Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars—finished with a combined 43-101 record.

As noted by Grantland's Bill Barnwell, teams struggle to sustain such seismic jumps the following year:

"

From 1990 to 2013, 20 teams improved by seven or more wins in a given season. Exactly one of those teams—the 1998 Jets—managed to improve again the following year, doing so by three wins. The 2013 Colts famously defied the statistical evidence and maintained their 11-5 record. The other 18 teams all declined, giving away just under half (48.2 percent) of their improvement from the previous year.

"

With Brian Hoyer under center, Andre Johnson in Indianapolis and Arian Foster on the sideline, the Texans don't boast much offensive firepower. They'll gravely miss their star running back against last year's No. 2 passing defense and No. 28 run-prevention unit.

Meanwhile, Jeremy Maclin will join Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce in what could become a quietly dangerous offense. Unless the Texans can successfully clone Watt before Sunday, they're not the better team. The spread depicts this as a close encounter, but the Chiefs enter with a firm upper hand.

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets

Week 1's top matchup to ignore, Ryan Fitzpatrick and the New York Jets host Josh McCown and the Cleveland Browns. Get your popcorn ready, because it's probably going to be a low-scoring game decided by steady running and field positioning.

A home team favored by three points typically marks such a game that can easily swing either way. Yet that's still awfully generous to New York, as a 4-12 team with a minus-118 point differential rarely receives the upper hand barring earth-shattering upgrades.

So why favor Gang Green over the 7-9 Browns? Bringing back Darrelle Revis fits the mold, and they hope Brandon Marshall fends off Father Time and enjoys a bounce-back year. Meanwhile, Cleveland closed 2014 on a five-game losing streak after previously winning three games each by two points or less. The spread is understandable, but not a smart bet.

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Revis and Antonio Cromartie reunite to form a scary cornerback pairing, but New York instead must worry about replacing the suspended Sheldon Richardson. Pro Football Focus examined the defensive end's vanished value:

Cleveland carries a stout secondary, posting an NFL-low 57.1 opposing completion percentage last year. A strong defense and lagging offense led the AFC North squad into several close games last year. It went 4-3 in matches decided by three or fewer points, with all four victories coming against losing teams and the three defeats suffered against playoff squads.

The Jets are no playoff team. They'll feel Richardson's absence in a low-scoring loss.

New Orleans Saints at Arizona Cardinals

This is the tallest leap of the upset picks, and thus the least likely to materialize. After winning all but one home game—a thrashing by the Seattle Seahawks with Ryan Lindley under center—the Arizona Cardinals will host a New Orleans Saints squad frequently billed as more dangerous inside the Superdome.

Following a 9-1 start, Arizona regressed hard, finishing at 11-5 before getting ousted by the 7-9 Carolina Panthers during the opening postseason round. Then again, the club will welcome back Carson Palmer, who led the team to a 6-0 start with 25.8 points per contest.

He'll return against football's second-worst defense by Pro Football Focus' grading. No wonder why he's so excited to get back on the field, per the team's Twitter account:

A remodeled defense can't get much worse, but it's not poised to get significantly better with Brandon Browner representing the biggest offseason acquisition. On the other side, Drew Brees will begin life without star tight end Jimmy Graham.

So, about New Orleans pulling off the upset. Even with Palmer, Arizona is more vulnerable than last season suggests. It finished behind New Orleans in DVOA at No. 22, with an underwhelming plus-11 point differential. Also, who's to say last year's Palmer shows up rather than the one who tossed 22 picks in 2013?

If the Saints can force a couple mistakes or simply become surprisingly competent, they're always a threat to put up points with the best. 

Note: Advanced stats courtesy of Football Outsiders unless otherwise noted.