NFL Predictions Week 1: Bleacher Report's Expert Consensus Projections

There's nothing harder to project than Week 1 NFL action, but your fearless Bleacher Report experts are here to do it anyway.

Every year, football fans gasp in shock, fall out of their chairs, stand up and applaud or break down weeping when the results of the first week come in. Supposed juggernauts are toppled! Supposed weaklings are strong! Top-ranked fantasy football players do practically nothing!

Sometimes these shocks and upsets are really for real, heralding a major shift in the way we rate certain teams or players. Others—as in 2001, when rookie quarterback Chris Weinke played the best game of his career in his NFL debut—are wildly misleading.

Most of the time, they're part of the week-to-week randomness that permeates the NFL. Isolate any given week in the NFL, and you'll find results that boggle the mind.

Remember Week 7 of 2014? The Super Bowl champion Patriots barely scraped by the 4-12 Jets, 27-25, the Indianapolis Colts stomped out the Cincinnati Bengals, 27-0, in what turned out to be an AFC playoff preview and the mediocre St. Louis Rams toppled the NFC champion Seattle Seahawks in a game that wasn't as close as the 28-26 final score.

This week, our experts tell you what to look out for, what you're going to be surprised by and what you should have seen coming.

Biggest Upset

Peter G. Aiken/Getty Images

Consensus pick: Houston Texans (even) over Kansas City Chiefs—two votes

There's no better indication of just how wild and unpredictable this week will be than how all-over-the-place our experts are on the biggest upset. Seven different games got nominated, with only the Texans getting more than one vote.

Though Odds Shark's line opened with the Chiefs getting 2.5 points, heavy betting on Kansas City has moved it to even odds. If this continues, Houston could end up being underdogs at home. Either way, our experts clearly think they have what it takes to knock off the Chiefs.

J.J. Watt, last year's Defensive Player of the Year, is set to feast on the underwhelming Chiefs line. 2013 No. 1 overall pick Eric Fisher, the Chiefs' disappointing pass-protector, has been demoted from left tackle to right tackle just in time to try to stop Watt from getting to quarterback Alex Smith.

The only question: Can home-field advantage give Brian Hoyer and the Texans offense enough of a boost to get through Kansas City's own fierce pass rush?

Others receiving votes (one vote each): New York Giants (+7) over Dallas Cowboys, Baltimore Ravens (+4.5) over Denver Broncos, Oakland Raiders (+3) over Cincinnati Bengals, Buffalo Bills (+2.5) over Indianapolis Colts, St. Louis Rams (+4.5) over Seattle Seahawks, Jacksonville Jaguars (+3) over Carolina Panthers

Biggest Blowout

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Consensus pick: Green Bay Packers (-7) over Chicago Bears—five votes

Our experts overwhelmingly picked the Packers to overwhelm the Bears, and why not? It's been a rocky transition to new head coach John Fox's way of doing things, and as Bleacher Report NFL Insider Jason Cole reported, the Bears might be without both of their top two receivers when they face the perennial NFC North champs.

Meanwhile, the Packers are picking up momentum as NFC favorites and are especially well-matched against the Bears' shaky secondary. This will likely get out of hand fast.

In 2014, the Packers not only swept the Bears—holding them to one win over the Packers in the last four seasons—but outscored them 93-31 in the process. That's complete, utter, total domination, and there's little reason to believe this week will see anything different.

The experts each went in different directions: The Miami Dolphins, Dallas Cowboys and Minnesota Vikings each got one vote each to lay the hammer on their opponents.

Others receiving votes (one vote each): Miami Dolphins over Washington, Dallas Cowboys over New York Giants, Minnesota Vikings over San Francisco 49ers

Higher Total: J.J. Watt Sacks or Alex Smith TD Passes

Peter Aiken/Getty Images

Consensus pick: Alex Smith TD passes—five votes

Alex Smith might be an underrated quarterback, but he's never been a prolific deep thrower. In fact, he's only topped 20 touchdowns in a season once in his entire career. What happens when a guy who's thrown 122 touchdowns in 105 starts (a 1.16 average) meets a monstrous defensive end who's racked up 57 sacks in 64 starts (an 0.89 average)?

You'd think it means you get a little more sackage than usual, and fewer touchdowns than usual. Our experts, though, largely love the cut of the Chiefs' jib this year—and if Smith can get anything going with talented targets Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce, he should be able to at least match Watt's sack pace.

Maybe that's why Bleacher Report National NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier took the two to tie.

Others receiving votes: J.J. Watt sacks (two votes), push (one vote)

Biggest Mismatch

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Consensus pick: Miami Dolphins defensive line vs. Washington offense—four votes

Though the New York Jets will match up the NFL's best cornerback group against the NFL's worst receiving corps, more of our experts gave the nod to the all-phases domination that's going to occur when the freakishly big, fast Miami Dolphins front and polished secondary match up against the most rudderless, chaotic, disorganized franchise in football.

Kirk Cousins acquitted himself relatively well against the vicious Ravens defense this preseason—except when supremely talented playmakers like Terrell Suggs overwhelmed his line and imposed their will. The Dolphins defense is loaded with such playmakers, and Cousins will struggle mightily to keep pace with Ryan Tannehill and the balanced Dolphins offense.

NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski named the biggest mismatch as Tom Brady, at home, in prime time, before a bloodthirsty New England crowd, against a Steelers defense decimated by retirements.

Others receiving votes: New York Jets cornerbacks vs. Cleveland Browns receivers (two votes), Dallas Cowboys offense vs. New York Giants defense (one vote), Tom Brady vs. Pittsburgh Steelers defense (one vote)

Sleeper QB Performance

Consensus pick: Tyrod Taylor—five votes

This is almost unfair. Taylor is the ultimate sleeper, a journeyman third-stringer who shocked the NFL world by beating out both EJ Manuel and Matt Cassel for the Bills' starting job. It's no surprise he got our Week 1 expert-consensus vote for sleeper QB performance.

Taylor will likely be pressed into passing, as the high-powered Colts offense will challenge even the stout Bills front. If Taylor can make use of his talented pass-catchers, the game will quickly turn into a shootout—and Taylor's final stat line could look quite impressive.

Many are sleeping on Kansas City's Alex Smith, who is blessed with his best supporting cast since 2012—when he was in the middle of having an outstanding statistical year before being supplanted by Colin Kaepernick.

Jacksonville Jaguars sophomore Blake Bortles, a player of similar athletic gifts (but with a stronger arm), gets a vote from NFL Analyst Brent Sobleski for what he and Allen Robinson might be able to do to the Carolina Panthers secondary.

Others receiving votes: Alex Smith (two votes), Blake Bortles (one vote)

More Passing Yards: Tom Brady or Ben Roethlisberger

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Consensus pick: push

Our experts voted right down the middle here, with four taking Tom Brady and four taking Ben Roethlisberger.

Brady has every factor working to his advantage: the massive chip on his shoulder after the Deflategate court victory, a prime-time home crowd that will be screaming for blood and suspensions stripping Roethlisberger of two of his top weapons (tailback Le'Veon Bell and receiver Martavis Bryant). The Patriots are at a massive advantage here, and a huge win seems likely, if not certain.

That said, Roethlisberger has a few factors working in his favor. One, he runs a much more vertical offense, with a better deep ball and speedier receivers. Two, if the Steelers defense suffers as much from the retirements of Troy Polamalu, Ike Taylor and Jason Worilds as many suspect, he's going to be throwing early and often to keep up with Brady.

Either way, all signs point toward a shootout. Whether winning the passing duel leads to a victory remains to be seen.

More Turnovers: Josh McCown or Ryan Fitzpatrick

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Consensus pick: Josh McCown—five votes

McCown and Fitzpatrick both have well-earned reputations for turnovers.

In fact, their propensity for coughing it up is eerily well-matched: Fitzpatrick has a career interception rate of 3.5 percent, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com, and so does McCown. PFR charged McCown with 54 fumbles too, which is exactly the same number it marked against Fitzpatrick's record.

The difference in the two quarterbacks has come in what they're doing when they're not turning it over, especially lately.

Fitzpatrick is coming off a career year with the Texans, throwing 17 touchdowns against eight interceptions and recording a 95.3 passer rating. McCown's career year was 2013, when in five relief starts (eight games total) he threw 13 touchdowns against just one interception—but he followed that up with a below-even-his-standards season in Tampa Bay.

Is Fitzpatrick due to return to earth too? Who knows? One thing we do know: Our experts don't expect McCown to regain his 2013 form in Cleveland either.

Others receiving votes: Ryan Fitzpatrick (two votes), push (one vote)

Sleeper RB Performance

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Consensus pick: DeAngelo Williams, Latavius Murray, Jeremy Hill—two votes each

Our eight experts were pulled in five different directions when asked for a Week 1 running back sleeper.

Two went with DeAngelo Williams, who will get the season-opening start for the Steelers in relief of starter Le'Veon Bell. Williams, a brand-new father for the third time, will try to prove he's still got something left in the tank after years of grunt work in Carolina.

Two more picked Latavius Murray, the speedy Oakland Raiders back who's opened eyes with some big-time runs. Can he break through the aging, thinning Cincinnati Bengals front seven for some big gains? Maybe so, especially if the back seven is focused on stopping rookie Amari Cooper and the passing game.

Two others chose the back on the other side of the ball from Murray: Jeremy Hill, the second-half breakout star of 2014. It takes some incredible ability to relegate Giovani Bernard to sidekick duty, but Hill flashed exactly that down the stretch. The Raiders front seven will have their hands full with him.

Others receiving votes: Lamar Miller, Brandon Bolden

Sleeper WR Performance

Consensus pick: Allen Robinson—three votes

Allen Robinson has been getting so much sleeper hype he's hardly even a sleeper anymore, but the training camp sensation still hasn't proved that any of the ink spilled over his potential this year was worth it. He'll get his first chance against the Panthers and 34-year-old Charles "Peanut" Tillman, who was just cleared to return from a preseason concussion.

Despite his favorable matchup, Robinson barely beat out Kenny Britt—who faces a Seahawks secondary lacking departed free-agent cornerback Byron Maxwell and holdout safety Kam Chancellor.

NFL analyst Gary Davenport reminded us that Stevie Johnson is with the San Diego Chargers now, and somebody is going to catch touchdowns from Philip Rivers.

Others receiving votes: Kenny Britt (two votes), Davante Adams (one vote), Stevie Johnson (one vote), Devin Funchess (one vote)

Sleeper TE Performance

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Consensus pick: Josh Hill—three votes

The math is simple: Start with a quarterback who's finished in the top three in passing attempts for six of the last seven seasons, subtract his favorite target and then promote that player's backup.

Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham drew a whopping 125 targets in not-quite-full-time duty for the Saints last year; Hill is in line to carry significant fractions of that load. This week, star cornerback Patrick Peterson will likely be clamping down on receiver Brandin Cooks. Hill is nowhere near as dominant as Graham—but he won't have to be to put up a nice day for a sleeper.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport went against the grain with his selection of Kyle Rudolph:

"

We've seemingly been waiting for Kyle Rudolph to "wake up" from the moment he entered the NFL. And there have been flashes between all the injuries. With that said, Rudolph appears 100 percent healthy, and Teddy Bridgewater wasn't even a little bit shy about looking his way in the preseason. Throw in a Norv Turner offense that has made more than one tight end look good, and it's time Kyle stopped playing reindeer games and started wreaking havoc.

"

Others receiving votes: Kyle Rudolph (one vote), Eric Ebron (one vote), Tyler Eifert (one vote), Brent Celek (one vote)

Best Defensive Performance

Lynne Sladky/Associated Press

Consensus pick: Miami Dolphins—three votes

What happens when you add All-Pro defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh to one of the NFL's deepest, most feared defensive fronts? And the secondary still features talents like Brent Grimes and Reshad Jones? You get a plurality of Bleacher Report NFL experts picking you to have the best defensive performance in Week 1, especially when you're playing the discombobulated squad from our nation's capital.

NFL Analyst Gary Davenport revolted against the consensus selection of a team performance and offered up his undying tribute to J.J. Watt:

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What? I'm going to pick a team? No 11 mere mortals could possibly strike the fear into the hearts of a quarterback that the mere sight of J.J. Watt lining up to rush the passer does. He is not a man. Nor a machine. He is a force of nature—like earthquakes. Only quarterbacks get to do the trembling instead of the ground. Unless he's on a bye, Watt gets my vote here.

"

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier wisely isolated fire-breathing Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald against a Seahawks offensive line that's now missing traded-away All-Pro center Max Unger. 

Others receiving votes: Kansas City Chiefs (two votes), J.J. Watt/Houston Texans (two votes), Aaron Donald (one vote)

Over/Under: 4 Combined Jameis Winston & Marcus Mariota TDs

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

Consensus pick: over—five votes

NFL National Lead Writer Mike Freeman embellished a little bit on his answer to this proposition; he expects the total combined touchdowns Winston and Mariota generate to be "way" over four.

Four other experts agreed that Winston, who'll be facing off against a Titans secondary that couldn't cover anyone in the preseason, and Mariota, who looks poised and polished in the Titans blues, will account for at least five combined touchdowns.

Two of our NFL Analysts, Brad Gagnon and Ty Schalter, expect the two to score four touchdowns exactly. One, Gary Davenport, took the under (because "I'm a contrarian," he explained).

Others receiving votes: push (two votes), under (one vote)

Flop of the Week

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Consensus pick: Jay Cutler—three votes

It's like putting fish in a smoker...um, or something.

Smokin' Jay Cutler is our panel's collective choice as Flop of the Week. Since the perennially disappointing talent was sacked on three of just 38 preseason dropbacks, it seems a particularly apropos choice. The Packers defense can be wildly inconsistent, but our experts clearly like Julius Peppers, Clay Matthews and the lot to have one of their better days against Cutler and the potentially Alshon Jeffery-less Bears.

Andy Dalton flashed some of his very worst form this preseason, garnering two votes, and two more experts underlined the belief that the Dolphins defense will run roughshod over Kirk Cousins and Washington.

National NFL Lead Writer Mike Tanier rang one more warning bell about the Rams' incredible defensive line against Seattle's depleted offensive line, picking the combination of Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch as his two-headed flop.

Others receiving votes: Andy Dalton (two votes), Kirk Cousins (two votes), Russell Wilson/Marshawn Lynch (one vote)