Fantasy Football 2015: Defense Rankings, Sleepers and Risks to Avoid
In a league that loves offense and continues to make rules to help it, there isn’t a lot of love for defense anymore, and that has infiltrated the fantasy world. I’m not saying it’s right, because I know many of you love watching a great defensive battle with scores in the teens, but the powers that be believe scoring drives the popularity of the league, so the rules are adjusted as such.
That’s why I have a tough time getting too into fantasy defenses. They don’t have a major bearing on whether your team wins or loses, and if they do, it’s because they likely scored a touchdown or two, which is impossible to predict. Last season, the Eagles gave up the 10th-most points, yet they finished as the top fantasy defense because they racked up 11 TDs. That’s not skill; that’s luck.
While factoring in a solid special teams unit might be a tiebreaker, I don’t put a lot of weight on that since most leagues only reward in the return game for scores, not yards.
As I’ll explain in the coming slides, the best defenses are usually overrated when it comes to trying to rank them among the rest of the positions, and defenses that don’t even get drafted will end up making an impact at some point during the season, either by luck or because they were underrated. If you want to avoid more of the luck factor, go play in an IDP (individual defensive players) league.
I’ll be taking you through the defenses to watch, to avoid and how to treat them in your draft and throughout the season. Now that you’re fired up, let’s get into it.
Defense Rankings: Don't Get Sucked in
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The consensus says the Seattle Seahawks are the top-ranked fantasy defense in 2015, but I say bologna. Besides finishing sixth last season, they were in the top five every year dating back to 2011, yet they never finished as the best defense. I’m not taking anything away from their performances, but they’ve never been so dominant for fantasy that they should be a lock to go before any other unit.
I’ve put the Buffalo Bills on the top of the list because they finished third last season and brought in a defensive mastermind in head coach Rex Ryan. The AFC East isn’t a brutal division and their schedule as a whole isn’t that bad. With talent all over the place, they have the tools to be strong on a weekly basis.
In terms of great defenses, I’d argue that the top five of the Bills, New York Jets, St. Louis Rams, Seahawks and Miami Dolphins are clearly ahead of the pack, but as you’ll learn later on, I’m targeting a much different defense at the end of my drafts.
2015 Preseason Rankings
| 1 | Buffalo Bills (BUF/8) | 3 | 2 |
| 2 | New York Jets (NYJ/5) | 11 | 13 |
| 3 | St. Louis Rams (STL/6) | 2 | 4 |
| 4 | Seattle Seahawks (SEA/9) | 1 | 1 |
| 5 | Miami Dolphins (MIA/5) | 9 | 7 |
| 6 | Houston Texans (HOU/9) | 4 | 3 |
| 7 | Denver Broncos (DEN/7) | 6 | 10 |
| 8 | Arizona Cardinals (ARI/9) | 5 | 6 |
| 9 | Baltimore Ravens (BAL/9) | 12 | 9 |
| 10 | Carolina Panthers (CAR/5) | 7 | 12 |
| 11 | Green Bay Packers (GB/7) | 10 | 14 |
| 12 | Cincinnati Bengals (CIN/7) | 13 | 17 |
| 13 | Cleveland Browns (CLE/11) | 18 | 24 |
| 14 | Detroit Lions (DET/9) | 16 | 16 |
| 15 | New England Patriots (NE/4) | 8 | 8 |
| 16 | Philadelphia Eagles (PHI/8) | 15 | 5 |
| 17 | Minnesota Vikings (MIN/5) | 19 | 15 |
| 18 | Kansas City Chiefs (KC/9) | 14 | 11 |
| 19 | San Francisco 49ers (SF/10) | 17 | 21 |
| 20 | Indianapolis Colts (IND/10) | 22 | 22 |
| 21 | Dallas Cowboys (DAL/6) | 21 | 18 |
| 22 | Pittsburgh Steelers (PIT/11) | 20 | 20 |
| 23 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers (TB/6) | 23 | |
| 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars (JAC/8) | 24 | |
| 25 | Washington Redskins (WAS/8) | 30 | 26 |
| 26 | San Diego Chargers (SD/10) | 26 | 25 |
| 27 | New Orleans Saints (NO/11) | 29 | 28 |
| 28 | New York Giants (NYG/11) | 25 | 19 |
| 29 | Chicago Bears (CHI/7) | 27 | 23 |
| 30 | Oakland Raiders (OAK/6) | 32 | |
| 31 | Tennessee Titans (TEN/4) | 31 | |
| 32 | Atlanta Falcons (ATL/10) | 28 | 27 |
Riser: The Dolphins Are a Suh-in
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More often than not, the Dolphins were a pretty good fantasy defense last year, finishing in a tie for 15th with the Kansas City Chiefs. They scored just three touchdowns, which showed they were actually contributing across the board and not just getting by on scoring.
Miami was already loaded with talent up front with Olivier Vernon and Cameron Wake, but the addition of Ndamukong Suh is the difference-maker. The Dolphins had just 39 sacks last season, but I fully expect that number to go up in 2015.
Add in an excellent cornerback in Brent Grimes and you have some high-end talent all over this unit. They won’t have to play a hard schedule, with multiple matchups against the Jets and Bills. Plus, if their offense comes through like it should, this could be a defense that tees off playing with a lead.
The secret really isn’t out on Miami, so they can be had if you’re smart enough to wait until the last few rounds of your draft.
Faller: If You're Going to San Francisco, There's No Defense There
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The San Francisco 49ers defense probably has a better reputation in reality than it should, or at least it did until a terrible offseason that included the retirements of Patrick Willis, Chris Borland and Justin Smith. Plus, they released Aldon Smith in the first week of training camp following another off-field incident, and Ahmad Brooks’ status is up in the air after he was indicted before the team’s third preseason game.
Last year, San Francisco finished as the 12th-best fantasy defense, despite giving up just 306 points (eighth-fewest). Other than their 23 interceptions, the 49ers failed to fill up the stat sheet and were pretty mediocre for most of the season.
They’ve lost a lot of talent in a short period of time, including their defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. New DC Eric Mangini will have his hands full with a group that tried to reload in the draft with Arik Armstead, Jaquiski Tartt and Eli Harold, but this won’t be a quick fix. If the offense struggles again, this unit could be exposed when it's on the field for too long. Ignore the rep and ignore the 49ers for fantasy.
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Riser: Don't Expect Much Against the Rams Defense
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The Rams may not have one of the league's best offenses, but best of luck in your future endeavors if you have any players facing their defense.
By the way, this is a group that finished fourth overall last season and has only gotten better this offseason. The Rams were already loaded up front with defensive ends Chris Long and Robert Quinn and defensive tackle Aaron Donald, but the addition of DT Nick Fairley make this arguable the best front four in football.
James Laurinaitis and Alec Ogletree head up a linebacking corps that added Akeem Ayers, so the biggest question is in the team's secondary. At safety, they’re set with Rodney McLeod and T.J. McDonald, but the cornerback spot is pretty top-heavy, with Janoris Jenkins and Trumaine Johnson leading the way.
It’s one of the league's most talented defenses with a pretty favorable schedule, so while the Rams will be one of the first defenses taken, they are one of the few with the talent to finish on top.
Faller: The Lions Are Far from Kings
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Can the Lions overcome the Ndamukong Suh and Nick Fairley departures? For a defense that finished 11th last season, it better be able to, or it won’t be worth drafting for fantasy. In fact, I don’t want anything to do with a defense that loses two key players and has to face the Packers twice this season.
The Lions were a top-10 team in sacks (42), interceptions (20) and points allowed (282), but they scored just two times, which made them one of just 10 defenses to score less than three touchdowns on the year.
Haloti Ngata was acquired to help replace Suh, but he wasn’t even activated off the PUP list until Aug. 31 because of a lingering hamstring injury and isn’t a lock to play in Week 1, head coach Jim Caldwell told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press. The Lions have one of the best IDP players in linebacker DeAndre Levy, but he doesn’t give a big enough boost to this unit as a whole, so look elsewhere for a fantasy defense in your draft.
Sleepers: Pay Attention to the Schedule
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Finding a sleeper when it comes to a fantasy defense is never easy, but you have to know where to look. The schedule is a major factor since, it can boost a unit that doesn’t have a lot of talent. When you’re playing with a big lead, it’s a lot easier to dial up more pressure to help force turnovers, and that is true for any defense.
The other key is the coach staff running the show. Has it had success with its scheme in the past without a lot of talent? Is it willing to blitz more to get takeaways? That can be a bit of a boom-or-bust philosophy, but it can also help you rack up fantasy points.
For me, defensive sleepers aren’t helping me win a championship since none of them make a big enough impact to move the needle. Instead, I’d much rather play the matchups with the expectation that my unit can force some turnovers along the way.
- Indianapolis Colts: The Colts open the season at Buffalo, home against the Jets, at Tennessee and home against Jacksonville. I’m not pumped about the Colts’ defensive talent, but I like their chances against those offenses. Take them with one of your last picks or scoop them off the waiver wire if you don’t have to draft a kicker.
- Carolina Panthers: Because of the talent they have up front, the Panthers aren’t much of a sleeper, but they get a bump because of their schedule. In the first four weeks, they go to Jacksonville, host Houston, host New Orleans and go to Tampa Bay. That’s a lot of turnovers to force along the way.
- Minnesota Vikings: This is a sleeper based on head coach Mike Zimmer. After stints in Dallas and Cincinnati as defensive coordinator, Zimmer finally landed a head coaching gig in Minnesota last season, and the team finished as the 14th-best fantasy defense in a division with some pretty good offenses. They still have to worry about seeing the Green Bay Packers and Lions twice a year, but the Chicago Bears have taken a step back and Jay Cutler is always happy to boost the value of any fantasy defense. Plus, with Cordarrelle Patterson as a returner, there’s some scoring potential on special teams.
Risks: Don't Overrate the Position as a Whole
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Far too often I have seen someone take the Seahawks defense in the ninth or 10th round with the thought that getting the supposed best defense would give them some major advantage. Seattle finished sixth last season. No team is close to the ’85 Bears or the ’00 Ravens, so there’s no reason to take a defense early.
The risks I discuss pertain to any of the top units. Barring a crazy scoring system in your league, defenses don’t score that much, so they shouldn’t be treated like they do. Last year, just three teams (Eagles, Texans, Bills) averaged double-digit fantasy points per game.
If you’re so into defenses contributing for your fantasy teams, you’re much better off playing in an IDP league. Touchdowns are way too fickle to predict for defenses and special teams, yet the ones that score the most, like the Eagles last season, may not be close to the most talented group.
The bottom line is, waiting on defenses is the way to go since we don’t have a dominant fantasy group to help ensure a championship. Let someone else look ill-prepared by taking the Seahawks as the first defense off the board. You take care of business at the end of your draft and laugh when the early-defense geniuses don’t get a return on their investment.
All rankings, ADP information and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.
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