Fantasy Football 2015: QB Rankings, Sleepers and Risks to Avoid

When an NFL team has the slightest inkling it can lock up a half-decent quarterback for multiple years, you can be sure the deal is getting done, given the serious shortage of talent at the position around the league. That’s why we’ve seen Andy Dalton, Colin Kaepernick and Jay Cutler get hefty contract extensions in recent years despite being nowhere near the best quarterbacks in the league.

How does that relate to fantasy, you may ask? This philosophy flies in the face of how you should treat the position in fantasy. Unless you get one of the no-doubt QB1s, there’s no reason to tie yourself to a mid-range quarterback for the season. Don’t be afraid to play the matchups if you’re not deeply invested in your quarterbacks. I’m not saying you should definitely stream your quarterbacks, but it's a viable option. 

The other issue with NFL teams handing contract extensions to barely above-average quarterbacks is that it shows how weak the position is for the long term. We’ve been banking on Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger, Tony Romo and Philip Rivers to be reliable fantasy options on a yearly basis, but what happens when they're all out of the league within the next five years or so?

The lack of development for quarterbacks starts in college and continues to be an issue in the NFL because players don’t get enough time to work with teammates in the offseason. Plus, they’re too often thrown into the fire as rookies because coaches and/or general managers want to keep their jobs. So if you’re a first-round pick, expect to start multiple games. 

In what’s a primarily passing league with rules favoring wide receivers over defensive backs, there’s plenty of production to go around at the position, which allows us to broaden our scope when trying to find a quarterback to put in the lineup each week. That devalues the need to take a big-name quarterback early, and with more and more people adopting that view, it’s pushed some of the best options far down the draft board.

Coming up, we’ll take a look at my quarterback rankings for the season, highlight a couple of players on the rise and mention two going in the wrong direction. Plus, I’ll give you a few sleeper names who have a chance to pay big dividends, in addition to some risky options to steer clear of this season.

QB Rankings: The Chosen One

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You won’t find many disagreeing with the one-two ranking of Andrew Luck and Aaron Rodgers. While those are the consensus players for the top two spots, the order was up for debate until Rodgers lost Jordy Nelson to a torn ACL.

Rodgers is still one of the best in the business and can help elevate others around him, but there’s no doubt Luck has more weapons. Therefore he’s your top quarterback.

Players such as Luck and Rodgers can give you a boost with their legs. Unlike Cam Newton and Russell Wilson, neither Luck nor Rodgers relies on his running ability for a big portion of his fantasy production, but both know they can fall back on it if they have to take off. That’s a nice bonus over players such as Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger and Matt Ryan.

I’d much rather have a quarterback who can give me a slight bonus with his legs than one who relies on it far too much, which is a big reason Wilson isn’t in my top five. It’s not a knock on his style since it’s clearly been working for him and the Seattle Seahawks, but that’s a big difference between fantasy and reality. Average quarterbacks can be fantasy-relevant if they need to throw a lot or have a favorable matchup.

Last year, 19 quarterbacks averaged at least 15 fantasy points per game. Just eight running backs hit that number, and 17 wide receivers reached that mark. You can find fantasy production at the quarterback position if you’re in a pinch, and it certainly helps if you only need one in your starting lineup (two-QB leagues are another story altogether).

These rankings may go against the general consensus, but you won’t see a major difference in scoring for the QB1s at the end of the season other than Rodgers and Luck.

2015 Preseason Rankings

Matt Camp QB Rankings

StandardPPR

Published on August 25   Export

Rank	Player (team/bye)	ECR™	ADP
1	Andrew Luck (IND/10)	1	1
2	Aaron Rodgers (GB/7)	2	2
3	Ben Roethlisberger (PIT/11)	6	6
4	Peyton Manning (DEN/7)	4	3
5	Matt Ryan (ATL/10)	7	7
6	Drew Brees (NO/11)	5	5
7	Ryan Tannehill (MIA/5)	10	13
8	Russell Wilson (SEA/9)	3	4
9	Eli Manning (NYG/11)	11	12
10	Matthew Stafford (DET/9)	12	9
11	Sam Bradford (PHI/8)	15	17
12	Tony Romo (DAL/6)	8	8
13	Tom Brady (NE/4)	14	10
14	Carson Palmer (ARI/9)	19	21
15	Cam Newton (CAR/5)	9	11
16	Teddy Bridgewater (MIN/5)	17	15
17	Joe Flacco (BAL/9)	18	16
18	Philip Rivers (SD/10)	13	14
19	Jay Cutler (CHI/7)	20	19
20	Andy Dalton (CIN/7)	21	25
21	Derek Carr (OAK/6)	26	24
22	Alex Smith (KC/9)	23	23
23	Ryan Fitzpatrick (NYJ/5)	29	29
24	Colin Kaepernick (SF/10)	16	18
25	Jameis Winston (TB/6)	22	22
26	Marcus Mariota (TEN/4)	24	20
27	Nick Foles (STL/6)	28	26
28	Blake Bortles (JAC/8)	27	30
29	Ryan Mallett (HOU/9)	36
30	Brian Hoyer (HOU/9)	31
31	Josh McCown (CLE/11)	35	28
32	Robert Griffin III (WAS/8)	25	27
33	Mark Sanchez (PHI/8)	37	33
34	Tyrod Taylor (BUF/8)	30
35	Matt Cassel (BUF/8)	33	34
36	Johnny Manziel (CLE/11)	32
37	Jimmy Garoppolo (NE/4)	38	35
38	Colt McCoy (WAS/8)	42
39	Derek Anderson (CAR/5)	48
40	Jimmy Clausen (CHI/7)	44
41	Geno Smith (NYJ/5)	34	32
42	Drew Stanton (ARI/9)	47
43	Brandon Weeden (DAL/6)	51
44	Chad Henne (JAC/8)	49
45	Mike Glennon (TB/6)	45
46	Zach Mettenberger (TEN/4)	41
47	Brock Osweiler (DEN/7)	43
48	Shaun Hill (MIN/5)	50
49	Matt Moore (MIA/5)	58
50	Scott Tolzien (GB/7)	53
51	Matt Hasselbeck (IND/10)	56
52	Matt Schaub (BAL/9)	59
53	Austin Davis (STL/6)	52
54	EJ Manuel (BUF/8)	39	31
55	Chase Daniel (KC/9)	54
56	Kirk Cousins (WAS/8)	40
57	Tim Tebow (PHI/8)	46	36
58	AJ McCarron (CIN/7)	60
59	Matt McGloin (OAK/6)	61
60	Michael Vick (PIT/11)

2015 Fantasy Football Rankings powered by FantasyPros.

Riser: The Time Is Now for Ryan Tannehill

Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports

Ryan Tannehill enters his fourth season primed for a big performance, thanks in part to the offseason acquisitions of Jordan Cameron, Kenny Stills and rookie DeVante Parker. While being in a great situation helps, Tannehill deserves credit for improving each season, which helped him earn a monster contract extension heading into the 2015 season.

While he’ll never be at the level of Andrew Luck, Tannehill’s improvements have been slow and steady in each of his first three years. In addition, the move to offensive coordinator Bill Lazor’s system was a big help because it gave Tannehill a reliable ground game for the first time and boosted his rushing stats (56 carries, 311 yards and one touchdown in 2014). 

As a rookie, Tannehill completed just 58.3 percent of his attempts. That number rose to 60.4 percent in 2013 and 66.4 percent in 2014. He’s also thrown more passes in each season, so he’s being asked to do more with his arm, and he’s delivering.

The deep ball has been a problem for Tannehill and needs to be an area of improvement this year. According to Pro Football Focus, he was 13th with a 37.7 percent completion rate on attempts targeted 20-plus yards downfield. That’s up from 32.8 percent in 2013 but down from 43.1 percent in 2012.

The good news is Tannehill has reportedly improved his downfield throws, per Andy Cohen of Dolphins.com. Cohen also said misses are still there, but the arc on the throws is better. If Tannehill can improve in this area, it would raise his ceiling that much more.

Some are skeptical of Tannehill (not me), but he’s still coming off the board as the ninth quarterback with an ADP near 90. More people are beginning to believe in Tannehill, and they should, but at that ADP, it’s a perfect example of why you can wait on a quarterback and still get one to be in your lineup with confidence each week.

Faller: Can Cam Newton Answer the Bell?

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In the last two drafts, the Carolina Panthers have made a point of getting huge targets to add to their receiving corps in an effort to help Cam Newton and his accuracy issues. Unfortunately, we won't see the pairing of Kelvin Benjamin and Devin Funchess this season, after Benjamin was lost for the year with a torn ACL. It's a huge loss for Carolina's passing game and not one that Newton can overcome.

Even with Benjamin added to the mix last year to go along with the typically reliable Greg Olsen, Newton completed just 58.5 percent of his career-low 448 attempts. Without Benjamin in the mix, the Panthers are back to square one with their receiving corps, which means Funchess, like Benjamin last year, could be pushed into a huge role right out of the gate as a rookie.

As if the issues in the passing game weren’t enough, Newton’s rushing numbers have dropped the last two seasons after he posted 127 rushes for 741 yards and eight touchdowns in 2012. Other than the touchdowns (14 as a rookie), those rushing numbers in his second season were his best, but he’s been unable to keep that up.

Ankle issues bothered Newton coming into last season, and a rib injury and a broken back from a car accident really tested his ability to bounce back quickly. Newton is another player who is getting far too much of his fantasy production via his legs, and with those numbers on the decline, expectations have to be lowered for his fantasy value.

The loss of Benjamin has clearly hurt Newton’s draft stock. He comes in around pick 102 as the 13th quarterback coming off the board. I’m not even ranking him that high and didn’t feel great about his chances with Benjamin, so playing without him just further solidifies my low ranking for Newton.

Riser: Teddy Bridgewater Could Be the Next Big Thing

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As I mentioned at the start of this column, the lack of talented starting quarterbacks around the league is staggering, and fantasy players have to worry about the big names calling it quits in the not-too-distant future.

I present Teddy Bridgewater at the forefront of young quarterbacks who are looking to take that next step from decent starter to potential superstar.

Improvement was apparent in Bridgewater’s game as time went on last season, which was impressive for multiple reasons. First, he was connecting with Charles Johnson, a wide receiver cut by the Cleveland Browns before the regular season started. Johnson played in just 12 games but was a favorite, if not the favorite, of Bridgewater as a passing target.

The game didn’t seem too big for Bridgewater, and by the end of the season, he turned the Minnesota Vikings into a team you didn’t want to play coming down the stretch. Over the second half of last season, he graded out with the sixth-best Pro Football Focus QB rating. That was better than Andrew Luck, Ben Roethlisberger, Tom Brady and other prominent names.

Getting a full offseason knowing you’re starting is a big deal, and in Bridgewater’s case, it has allowed him to get into more of a comfort zone before the season truly gets rolling. Plus, he got to work more with Johnson and a new addition in Mike Wallace.

You don’t have to draft Bridgewater to be your fantasy starter, but I expect him to make that jump at some point in 2015. As my 16th-ranked quarterback, he should be considered a great backup with the ability to jump into the starting lineup if need be. He’s been the 16th quarterback drafted, but his ADP of 130.5 makes him affordable.

That pick is low-risk and could pay off big time, so keep an eye on Bridgewater in your drafts during the double-digit rounds.

Faller: It's the Final Countdown for Jay Cutler

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A quick glance at Cutler’s 2014 numbers shows a quarterback who completed 66 percent of his passes with 28 touchdowns. That’s not too shabby, but it was also pretty ugly if you had to actually watch Cutler and the Chicago Bears offense operate last year.

Some players end up with strong fantasy stats, but some such as Cutler and Matthew Stafford don’t make it easy to deal with because of poor decision-making and an overreliance on their strong arms. I’d much rather enjoy watching my fantasy quarterback than suffer through ugly performances and hope for the best.

That was a sad reality for Cutler owners last year.

Now that fantasy-friendly Marc Trestman is no longer running the team or the offense, there’s some concern about a drop-off in fantasy production under new offensive coordinator Adam Gase and a conservative, fix-it-up head coach in John Fox. The latter hasn't made any significant positive statements about Cutler.

Chicago already benched Cutler once last season, and there’s no guarantee he makes it through this year. In an effort to cut down on mistakes and poor throws, I suspect the ball will be taken out of Cutler’s hands more often with a bigger priority on pounding the rock.

If you were able to overcome Cutler’s turnovers and mistakes, he didn’t have a bad year in 2014, but expectations can’t be high in what I’m fully expecting to be his final season with the Bears.

Sleepers: Aggressive Coaches Are Best for Business

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Nailing a sleeper at the quarterback position is more about finding the upside where others are afraid to take that risk, although you’re likely taking one of these players after you settle on a QB1.

I’m focusing on aggressive offenses; teams with bad defenses; quarterbacks who run and overlooked, older quarterbacks who can still sling it and may have some upgrades in talent around them. With so many waiting on a quarterback, you shouldn’t have to reach for any of these players, be they young or old.

Sam Bradford (ADP 129.8): I’ve written plenty about Bradford being the best quarterback Chip Kelly has had in three years with the Philadelphia Eagles, and with Bradford back on the field this preseason after missing all of last season with a torn ACL, he’s already seen his draft stock rise significantly.

Carson Palmer (ADP 157.5): Palmer often gets overlooked as one of the best quarterbacks of the last 10-plus years thanks to way too many injuries. The nerve issue and torn ACL that caused him to miss time last year are now things of the past. Arizona wants to throw it a lot and has enough weapons to make Palmer a good fantasy quarterback. You can take him as a safe, veteran backup to someone such as Ryan Tannehill.

Joe Flacco (ADP 148.3): Flacco has never had consistent fantasy value, so this is a long reach, but I can’t ignore how Marc Trestman boosted Jay Cutler’s numbers for a time and turned Josh McCown into fantasy gold. Flacco is better than both of those quarterbacks and can get a similar boost from Trestman. At that ADP, he won't cost you much, so if it doesn’t work out, you can easily move on to someone else.

Marcus Mariota (ADP 156.7): I'm not ready to move Mariota up my board in a big way just yet, but I've at least come around to thinking he can overcome the mess that is the Tennessee Titans. He gets consideration because he'll likely be throwing a lot on a bad team and could boost his value with his legs.

Risks: Beware of the Ground-and-Pound

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The only thing that can stop a good or even decent quarterback is limited opportunity. I identify risky quarterback options by looking at the philosophy of the offense. Does it want to run the ball? Is the team actively looking to keep the ball out of the quarterback’s hands? If the team’s defense is really good, how often will the offense have to throw it while playing with a lead?

These factors can save you the trouble of selecting a mediocre fantasy quarterback this year or a highly ranked quarterback with an ADP that’s just too high. 

Tony Romo (ADP 85.8): With the Dallas Cowboys transitioning to more of a run-first offense, Romo has become a very efficient quarterback, but he doesn’t have monster fantasy numbers anymore. He finished 11th in total fantasy points last year but is coming off the board as the eighth quarterback this year. I could see them throwing a little more without DeMarco Murray around, but Romo’s ceiling is still pretty low. A three-spot jump over where he finished in 2014? I’m not buying it.

Colin Kaepernick (ADP 142.5): Kaepernick has a lot to prove after taking steps back as a passer both literally and figuratively last year. He’s been too scattershot as a quarterback, and unless he’s running around, he’s another player with a low ceiling, especially on a bad team. Make Kaepernick prove himself instead of drafting him as a solid backup.

Andy Dalton (ADP 171): The Cincinnati Bengals and offensive coordinator Hue Jackson have made it clear they want to reduce how much Dalton throws the ball, and with a reliable backfield featuring Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard, they’re making the right call. In addition to a strong rushing attack, I expect a better season out of the defense, which could curb Dalton’s attempts even more. Go find a better backup with more upside. 

All rankings, ADP information and statistics are from FantasyPros.com unless otherwise noted.