Waiver Wire Week 7: Top Pickups, Drops and Expert Analysis

My approach to fantasy football is to apply logic and sound reasoning to make the best decisions in any given week. I've always hated the idea of going off a gut feeling and passing it off as analysis. I'll never change that philosophy, and I know I'll get some wrong along the way.

I can control my thought process, but figuring out coaches is a whole different story.

Last week, Green Bay Packers running back Eddie Lacy looked primed for his first big week of the season. The Packers were facing a bad San Diego Chargers run defense, and the Chargers pass defense was significantly better. With Lacy four weeks removed from an ankle injury and nowhere to be seen on the injury report, it felt like the right week for him to get on track.

Instead, James Starks got the start for the Packers and scored twice on 10 carries and two targets. While Lacy played in the game, the team made it clear he wasn't the primary back. Logic lost out in this situation because we had no idea the team had concerns about Lacy's injury.

That's just another example of why fantasy football, and the NFL in general, has become a week-to-week league. Hot names on the waiver wire might seem useless a week later, such as Kansas City Chiefs running back Charcandrick West, while a player you grabbed a few weeks ago may have helped fill the void for a short period of time but may matter little to you going forward, such as Chicago Bears wide receiver Marquess Wilson.

You won't see a lot of strong, long-term candidates in this week's look at the waiver wire. Instead of talking about all the players coming off strong performances in Week 6, I tried to narrow this list down to those who played well in Week 6 but are more than just one-week wonders, which is why I spotlighted Jacksonville Jaguars quarterback Blake Bortles.

As always, make sure you're paying close attention to the practice reports and injury news throughout the week. Some injuries and concerns may not pop up until after the first practice of the week, which for almost all teams comes Wednesday. Those issues could add more options to the waiver wire pickups I've detailed for you this week.

Quarterbacks

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Blake Bortles, Jacksonville

Percent Owned: ESPN – 47, Yahoo – 43

The difference between fantasy and reality can be a big one, and through six weeks, that's definitely true for Bortles and the Jacksonville Jaguars.

In years past, you wouldn't think of owning multiple Jaguars on your fantasy team, much less multiple starting options. Now, wide receivers Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, tight end Julius Thomas, running back T.J. Yeldon (when healthy) and Bortles look like strong fantasy plays on a weekly basis.

The Jaguars dropped another game in Week 6, but Bortles was impressive against the Houston Texans. While he came into the game with a sprained AC joint in his shoulder, the injury never seemed to affect him too much, at least not according to his numbers.

Bortles threw for 331 yards with three touchdowns and three interceptions on 30-of-53 passing. He added four carries for 37 yards. I'm willing to excuse the high-interception total when I know Bortles was just trying to make some plays to get his team back in the mix.

Over the last five weeks, Bortles has been a top-10 fantasy quarterback and has played well enough to justify keeping that up, not to mention the great talent he has around him. In Week 7, he and the Jaguars head to London to face the Buffalo Bills. It's not a fantastic matchup, but I'm not looking at Bortles just for Week 7. He should have value for the rest of the season.

Week 7 Projection: 250-260 yards, two touchdowns, one interception; three carries, 20 yards

Jay Cutler, Chicago

Percent Owned: ESPN – 24, Yahoo – 35

Much like Bortles, I'm not looking at Cutler as a one-week wonder. In fact, he's been pretty good in every game he's played this year, and that includes what he did against the Detroit Lions in an overtime loss Sunday. Cutler went 26-of-41 for a season-high 353 yards with a touchdown and an interception as well as 12 yards on two carries.

At a position that's lacking depth and an abundance of high-quality starting options, Cutler has value because he's playing well, throwing a lot and has plenty of talent around him, especially with wide receiver Alshon Jeffery back in the lineup.

The Bears are off in Week 7, but I'd still add Cutler if you have the room or are in deeper leagues. He's one to consider with the right matchup and doesn't have difficult games coming up against the Minnesota Vikings and San Diego Chargers following the Week 7 bye.

Week 7 Projection: Bye

Droppable Players: Marcus Mariota, Alex Smith, Michael Vick

Running Backs

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Christine Michael, Dallas

Percent Owned: ESPN – 31.5, Yahoo – 39 

If you believe in the hype, Michael is already on your team and may have been there for weeks. I understand why some stashed him away, but as you can see by the ownership numbers, he's still widely available, although I doubt that lasts much longer, just based on the buzz around him coming out of the Week 6 bye for the Dallas Cowboys.

Since coming over in a trade from the Seattle Seahawks right before the season began, Michael has been active for just two games (Weeks 4-5) and has racked up a grand total of five yards on two carries. This comes after two seasons in Seattle where he ran 52 times for 254 yards. The small sample size is my biggest concern, but the hype seems to be real for the Cowboys.

Last week, running backs coach Gary Brown told David Helman of DallasCowboys.com that Michael is "where he needs to be" and that it was time to "take the reins off him and let him rock." Bryan Broaddus of the team's site confirmed on Twitter that Michael was getting the most reps with the first-team offense in Monday's practice.

So why would the Cowboys make this move? Well, running back Joseph Randle has been a disappointment, rushing for 289 yards and four touchdowns on 74 carries, which puts him at just 3.9 yards per carry. After DeMarco Murray's huge season in 2014, the team believes it should be getting more out of its rushing attack, which explains why the door is open for Michael.

I'll be monitoring the news coming out of Dallas closely all week to determine just how strong fantasy owners can be on Michael and this backfield in general. The matchup against the New York Giants isn't bad, but Michael is a smart add for the long term regardless of what he's done or what happens in Week 7.

Week 7 Projection: 18 carries, 80 yards, one touchdown

Charles Sims, Tampa Bay

Percent Owned: ESPN – 39, Yahoo – 25

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have not one but two running backs among the top 20 for fantasy. Doug Martin has been great and carrying the offense over the last few games before the bye, but we've also seen Sims play well when the team has needed him most.

In the Week 5 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, Sims had a season-high 12 carries for 51 yards and added four receptions for 85 yards. He doesn't have a rushing touchdown this year, but he does have a pair through the air.

With the Buccaneers coming off a bye, there's a good chance Sims is still out there for you to grab since some may have found him difficult to stash away with such a small amount of fantasy production so far in his career. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston is still going through some growing pains, which puts even more importance on the backfield of Sims and Martin.

Sims draws the Redskins this week, and after their strong start on defense, injuries are catching up to them, and their play is noticeably slipping. They've allowed 150-plus rushing yards and at least six receptions to running backs in their last two games.

Week 7 Projection: four receptions, 55 yards; seven carries, 28 yards

Theo Riddick, Detroit

Percent Owned: ESPN – 15.2, Yahoo – 21

The Detroit Lions got their first win in Week 6, but in the fantasy world, they may have figured out something even more valuable. We've suffered through seeing running backs Ameer Abdullah, Joique Bell, Zach Zenner and Theo Riddick all in the mix, but injuries have forced Detroit's hand.

Bell (ankle) was inactive for the Week 6 loss to the Chicago Bears, and the team had to place Zenner on injured reserve thanks to the cracked ribs and partially collapsed lung he suffered against the Bears. While that's a terrible loss, it opens the door for Detroit to just roll with its best two running backs, Abdullah and Riddick.

The injuries may clear up the backfield, but Riddick was making his way through it with good production before that happened. He has at least five receptions in four games and at least five targets in five games. His only two touchdowns have come in the passing game. In four of six games, he's scored double-digit fantasy points in points-per-reception (PPR) formats.

Even if Bell is back this week, Riddick's role in the passing game shouldn't change much against the Minnesota Vikings. Back in Week 2, Riddick had five receptions for 41 yards on six targets against the Vikings. They've been one of the best defenses against running backs this season, but thanks to some success earlier this year and a chance at a bigger role, Riddick is a smart add for this week and for the rest of the year.

Week 7 Projection: five receptions, 41 yards; four carries, 14 yards

James Starks, Green Bay

Percent Owned: ESPN – 22.3, Yahoo – 20 

Typically, I list the players at each position in my order of preference to grab off the waiver wire. For many, Starks well could be on top of that list, but I had too many questions about his role, Eddie Lacy and what's happening with the team heading into a bye.

Despite no indications of any injury on the practice reports, it was Starks, not Lacy, who got the start for the Packers. Starks outsnapped Lacy 54 percent to 38 percent. Starks had 10 carries for 112 yards and a 65-yard rushing touchdown and caught one of two targets for a five-yard receiving touchdown. Lacy managed just four carries for three yards and two receptions for 17 yards on two targets.

The first thought has to be, why did this happen to Lacy? Remember, he suffered an ankle injury back in Week 2 but never missed time after that game. Considering Starks started Week 6, Lacy's absence on the injury report looms even larger.

On Monday afternoon, head coach Mike McCarthy described Lacy as "beat up" but didn't "see conditioning as an issue," per Weston Hodkiewicz of PackersNews.com. Offensive coordinator Edgar Bennett said Lacy will "probably feel a lot better" following this week's bye, per Rob Demovsky of ESPN.com.

Because the Packers ran just 56 plays and Starks had only 11 touches, I can't endorse him as a strong addition off the waiver wire. The game flow wasn't typical of how the Packers play, and with a week off, Lacy could be ready to resume his role as the starter and lead back. Starks will be a hot commodity this week, but expectations need to stay in check unless Lacy's injury issues continue to linger.

Week 7 Projection: Bye

Droppable Players: C.J. Anderson, Dan Herron, Fred Jackson

Wide Receivers

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Stefon Diggs, Minnesota

Percent Owned: ESPN – 3, Yahoo – 7

Diggs made last week's waiver-wire article, and I pushed him as one of my sleepers in multiple videos leading up to a great matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 6, but I was not expecting him to come through in such a big way.

The rookie posted seven receptions and 129 yards on nine targets in a win over the Chiefs. What was more surprising is that he led all Vikings receivers with 82 percent of the offensive snaps. I expected the uptick in targets and playing time with wide receiver Charles Johnson (rib) out, but to finish the day as the top receiver in production and snaps was somewhat telling.

While I'm happy Diggs took advantage of a great opportunity, I want to note this happened against a Chiefs defense that's one of the worst in the league against the pass. Diggs has a great chance to build on his performance by facing a beatable Lions defense in Detroit on Sunday.

Diggs is one of the top names to grab this week because he'll have good value this week and in the future. Plus, head coach Mike Zimmer hasn't decided if Diggs will remain a starter, per Chris Tomasson of the St. Paul Pioneer Press. But if Zimmer is keeping the door open, that's good enough for me.

Week 7 Projection: six receptions, 75 yards, one touchdown

Brandon LaFell, New England

Percent Owned: ESPN – 20.5, Yahoo – 51

The New England Patriots sit at 5-0 after yet another impressive victory and possess one of the best offenses in the league. They could be getting even better as early as Week 7 if they choose to bring back wide receiver Brandon LaFell from the PUP list this week.

LaFell landed on the PUP list before the start of the season with a mysterious foot injury, and by rule he had to remain there, regardless of his health status, for the first six weeks of the season. According to Mike Reiss of ESPN.com, LaFell believes he's ready to practice, but that'll be up to head coach Bill Belichick.

Last season was LaFell's first with the Patriots after four with the Carolina Panthers. He played every game in 2014, posting 74 receptions for 953 yards and seven touchdowns on 119 targets. All of those numbers were career highs.

Coming back for this week's matchup with the New York Jets would be a tough way to make his season debut, and he's not even a lock to come off the PUP list right away. Still, he's worth adding even if he doesn't play this week because it's a good idea to get a part of this offense, especially a possible starting wide receiver.

Week 7 Projection: four receptions, 44 yards (if active)

Michael Floyd, Arizona

Percent Owned: ESPN – 41.9, Yahoo – 32

Following Floyd's massively disappointing 2014 season, fantasy owners overlooked him coming in to this season, and he was playing down to the lack of hype until his performance in Week 6, a loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Floyd posted five receptions for 50 yards and a touchdown on a season-high eight targets. So far, he's been the third man in the Cardinals receiving corps behind wide receivers Larry Fitzgerald and John Brown. Floyd's best game of the season still trailed behind Brown's 10 receptions for 196 yards and Fitzgerald’s eight receptions for 93 yards.

I'm not putting a strong endorsement behind Floyd as a legitimate fantasy option, but I will acknowledge that the Cardinals love to throw the ball and have three different but talented receivers at the disposal of Carson Palmer.

One of the biggest reasons Floyd gets consideration is because of the Week 7 matchup with the Baltimore Ravens. Over the first six weeks, the Ravens have allowed the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers. Floyd may have a chance to stay relevant the rest of the season, but that will be tested this week with such a great matchup.

Week 7 Projection: five receptions, 78 yards

Droppable Players: Stevie Johnson, Charles Johnson, Dwayne Harris

Tight Ends

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Ladarius Green, San Diego

Percent Owned: ESPN – 15.5, Yahoo – 27

For Green, timing has been everything this season, and it's the reason he's still relevant for the San Diego Chargers offense and for fantasy owners despite the return of tight end Antonio Gates.

When Gates served a four-game suspension to open the season, Green stepped up, and other than a concussion that cost him Week 3, he was productive. That made him a top-six fantasy tight end during that stretch, but many discarded him following Gates' return from suspension.

Timing worked in Green's favor because wide receiver Stevie Johnson injured his hamstring in Week 4, which meant the Chargers still needed Green to play a prominent role in the offense. Gates may have put up big numbers in his Week 5 return (nine receptions, 92 yards, two touchdowns), but Green had more snaps and still had five receptions for 50 yards on five targets.

With Johnson out again in Week 6, Green caught three of four targets for 35 yards and a score while playing 70 percent of the snaps compared to 76 percent for Gates, who wound up with nine receptions for 95 yards on 16 targets in the loss to the Green Bay Packers.

Because Gates is back and starting, I won't make a strong push for Green, but the bottom line is that he's been productive with and without Gates on the field, so he still has fantasy value, especially if Johnson remains out.

Oh, and the Chargers get the Oakland Raiders this week. They have been the worst defense against fantasy tight ends this year. That's good timing.

Did I mention Green was doing this in the final year of his deal with the Chargers? That's the best timing.

Week 7 Projection: five receptions, 58 yards

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, Tampa Bay

Percent Owned: ESPN – 10.1, Yahoo – 28

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers hope to get second-year tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins back this week from a shoulder strain he suffered in Week 2. They're coming off the bye, and the initial diagnosis was that he'd miss four to six weeks, so with the extra week to rest, he should have a chance of playing in Week 7.

In his first two games, ASJ posted seven receptions for 139 yards and a pair of touchdowns. Rookie quarterback Jameis Winston has turned the ball over too much, which has hurt the value of players such as wide receiver Mike Evans but boosted the value of running back Doug Martin. He is running the ball well, so the team has relied on him to carry the offense and take some pressure off Winston.

Seferian-Jenkins' return would give the rookie QB a big target to help move the chains and in the red zone. If he plays, the big tight end would get a decent matchup against the Washington Redskins. Be sure to monitor his status during the week.

Week 7 Projection: five receptions, 49 yards

Droppable Players: Jacob Tamme, Larry Donnell, Vernon Davis

Defenses

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The Falcons have been a surprise team this season following a dreadful performance in 2014, and while their flashy offense is getting a lot of credit, an improved defense has been somewhat overlooked.

The Falcons should be in the conversation for you this week because they'll be taking on the Tennessee Titans in Nashville on Sunday. Through six games, the Titans have allowed the most fantasy points to opposing defenses. They may be without quarterback Marcus Mariota, who has an MCL sprain, according to ESPN's Chris Mortensen.

If the rookie QB sits, the Titans would turn to Zach Mettenberger. That may not be a major downgrade for the Titans, but Mettenberger has to worry about protection. Tennessee has allowed 20 sacks this season, and that means the Falcons have a chance to get their pass rush going after a slow start (seven sacks).

This is about as matchup-based as it gets for a fantasy defense, but you should be able to pluck the Falcons off the waiver wire and move them right into your starting lineup no matter who's playing QB for the Titans in Week 7.

Week 7 Projection: two interceptions, three sacks, 17-21 points allowed

Kickers

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Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona

Percent Owned: ESPN – 42, Yahoo – 38

Once again, Catanzaro's ownership percentage is still low for someone who remains a top-10 option at the position through the first six weeks.

He has a league-high 24 extra points thanks to a potent Arizona Cardinals offense. He's also tied for 13th with nine field goals in 10 attempts. That's more than enough to keep him on the roster on a weekly basis.

Catanzaro could be busy yet again this week, as the Cardinals host the Baltimore Ravens. Baltimore's defense has been ravaged by injuries and looks like one of the worst in the league. Get Catanzaro on your roster now!

Travis Coons, Cleveland

Percent Owned: ESPN – 7, Yahoo – 4

It's not what many expected, but the Cleveland Browns have some life on offense, and that means they have made Travis Coons a useful fantasy kicker in the early part of the season.

He's made all 12 of his field-goal attempts and all 11 extra-point attempts, which puts him among the top 10 kickers for fantasy. Because he's not a well-known name, Coons is available in most leagues.

This week, the Browns won't have an easy matchup in St. Louis against the Rams, but Coons will get the benefit of kicking indoors, so that should help.

Fantasy leaders provided by NFL.com. Targets provided by ESPN.com. Snap counts provided by ProFootballFocus.com.