Ranking the Top 2015 MLB Pennant Race X-Factors with 1 Month to Go
Hunter Pence is the ultimate X-factor.
The dynamic right fielder is just the kind of game-changer who could vault the San Francisco Giants to yet another October run—that is, if his strained oblique allows him to fulfill that role.
Looking around the league, Pence is far from the only wild card who will have a dramatic impact on how the playoff chase shakes out. The idea here is to focus on those players and storylines that will have a significant but unpredictable influence during the home stretch.
The nine X-factors that follow are ranked in order of the impact each one could potentially have in the postseason hunt. As it turns out, players like Pence, who are either on the verge of returning from stints on the disabled list or have just come back, dominated the rankings.
9. The Sooner-Than-Expected Return of A.J. Burnett
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A.J. Burnett is on the fast track back to PNC Park.
The vet, who is stranded on the DL with a strained flexor tendon in his right elbow, impressed in his simulated game Tuesday.
"It was a good step," said Burnett (via Rob Biertempfel of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). "Thirty-five pitches off the mound, 20 in the pen. Everything felt better than it's felt in a long, long time, so that's a positive day."
As Biertempfel reported, the Bucs are "optimistic" Burnett will be back on the mound by the middle of September. That's a great break for the Pirates as the club looks to track down the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central. Currently, Pittsburgh trails the Cards by 4.5 contests.
The 75-49 Pirates haven't exactly been lost without Burnett, but his impending return will still provide a much-needed lift to a pitching staff that hasn't been firing on all cylinders since the All-Star break. In the first half, Pittsburgh ripped off a 2.86 ERA. But in the second half, the group sports a 3.91 ERA.
8. A Rested and Refreshed Alex Rodriguez
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The New York Yankees are going to need Alex Rodriguez's first-half version to return if the club is going to top the Toronto Blue Jays in the furious race for the AL East crown.
In the season's opening half, A-Rod clubbed 18 jacks, posted a .278 average and put up a .898 OPS. But as of late—especially since the calendar flipped to August—Rodriguez just hasn't played like that guy.
"If you look at the last two weeks, it's been a little bit of a struggle for him," manager Joe Girardi admitted, per Brendan Kuty of NJ Advance Media.
This month, the 40-year-old designated hitter clocks in with a .145 average. In order to get Rodriguez back to his vintage form, Girardi has been giving the right-handed hitter plenty of rest, recently sitting him out in back-to-back contests over the weekend.
"We've tried to stay ahead of the curve and keep these guys on the field, and we've been proactive," Girardi said of the cautious approach that he's taken with managing the club's veterans like Rodriguez, according to Kuty.
With Rodriguez having already appeared in 116 games—his highest total since 2012—that's a savvy move from the skipper.
7. The Surprisingly Quick Return of Marcus Stroman
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So much for Marcus Stroman being out for the season.
When Stroman tore his ACL in his left knee in March, the word was that the righty's season was over before it even began. Less than six months later, Stroman is on the verge of rejoining the surging Toronto Blue Jays.
"My knee is ready to go, and it's just a matter of getting the pitch count up," Stroman told Jeff Simmons of SportsNet after throwing a 40-pitch simulated game Monday.
According to Simmons, Stroman will have to throw another simulated game later in the week before getting the green light to head out on a minor league rehab assignment. For his part, Stroman is extremely confident about his ability to help the Blue Jays in the run up to October.
"I'm ready to start. If they need me in the 'pen, I'm willing to contribute in whatever facet they need me. I'm looking forward to come back and dominate," he said.
Whether he ends up pitching out of the rotation or in relief, Stroman should soon provide manager John Gibbons with yet another weapon to utilize on a pitching staff that has been flat-out nasty in the second half. Since the All-Star break, Jays pitchers have reeled off the third-best ERA (2.81) in baseball.
6. The Return of David Wright as a Part-Time Star
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Everything is falling into place for the New York Mets.
With the pitching staff continuing to deal and the offense suddenly roaring to life, the Mets have built up an 5.5-game advantage over the Washington Nationals in the NL East. Now, the club has captain David Wright back in the mix after a bout with spinal stenosis, which has kept him on the DL since April.
Wright immediately made his presence known, clubbing a home run in his return to the lineup Monday in the Mets' 16-7 beatdown of the Philadelphia Phillies.
"I had to be careful. I almost pulled a Wilmer Flores out there," Wright joked (via Marc Carig of Newsday), referencing the scene last month when the shortstop cried on the field after it was reported he had been traded.
It was quite the return for Wright, but he won't have the chance to make that kind of impact on a daily basis. As Anthony DiComo of MLB.com reported, manager Terry Collins plans to rest Wright frequently during the stretch drive to keep him as healthy as possible. For that reason, Wright remains anchored in the No. 6 spot in the X-factor rankings.
5. The Potential for a Contender to Make a Last-Minute Waiver-Wire Splash
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With the waiver-trade deadline looming on August 31, it's not too late for a contending club to make one final addition to its roster.
One pitcher who could make a difference for an October hopeful is James Shields. Per Buster Olney of ESPN The Magazine, the San Diego Padres can trade him to any team after the right-hander went unclaimed.
Make no mistake about it—Shields is set to make a lot of cash in the future. Here's a look at how his contract situation breaks down:
- 2015: Owed the balance of his $10 million salary
- 2016: Owed $21 million (can opt out of the contract after the season)
- 2017: Owed $21 million
- 2018: Owed $21 million
- 2019: Has a $16 million team option, with a $2 million buyout
Another prominent vet who could be on the move is Jose Reyes. According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports the 32-year-old shortstop has also cleared waivers. Like Shields, Reyes would also be an expensive addition, as he's still owed $55 million, per Heyman.
Thanks to the money it would cost, odds are slim that a player like Shields or Reyes will be going anywhere. But if a contender gets hit with an unfortunate injury between now and the end of the month, that could all change.
4. The Chicago Cubs' Knack for Getting Big Hits in Big Moments
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In manager Joe Maddon's first season at Wrigley Field, the Chicago Cubs have demonstrated an uncanny knack for delivering clutch hits. Per ESPN Stats & Info, the NL Central squad leads baseball with 12 walk-off wins in 2015.
Kris Bryant delivered the most recent game-winner, going yard in the ninth inning of the Cubs' 2-1 win over the Cleveland Indians on Monday. According to Christopher Kamka of CSN Chicago, that shot made Bryant the first player since 2008 to connect on multiple two-out walk-off homers in the same season.
The Cubs are now 21-4 dating back to July 29, which marks the team's best 25-game stretch since 1936, per Ryan Field of Fox Sports 1.
But even with that incredible run, the Cubs are stuck in third place in the NL Central. As a result, Chicago needs that late-inning magic to continue if the club is going to catch either the Pittsburgh Pirates or the St. Louis Cardinals.
3. The Los Angeles Dodgers' Gas Can of a Bullpen
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The Los Angeles Dodgers are on the verge of becoming the first MLB team with a $300 million luxury-tax payroll, according to Ronald Blum of the Associated Press.
Unfortunately, someone forgot to buy a bullpen.
The NL West leaders own just a 2.5-game advantage over the San Francisco Giants in the division, and the pen has proved to be one of the underachieving club's underlying issues. On the year, the Dodgers' relief crew sports a 4.16 ERA, which ranks No. 23 in the majors.
The two arms the club picked up at the deadline—Luis Avilan and Jim Johnson—have been total duds. Avilan checks in with a 6.75 ERA, while Johnson has posted an alarming 21.00 ERA in his brief stay in Los Angeles.
Whether via a waiver-wire swap, a minor league promotion or just a collective turnaround from the current group, the Dodgers need help in the late innings—and fast.
One player would doesn't figure to save the bullpen just yet is super prospect Julio Urias. The 19-year-old has spent much of the season with the team's Double-A affiliate, where he's posted a 2.77 ERA in 13 starts.
"He probably would not be one of the guys we see right away," manager Don Mattingly said (via Mark Saxon of ESPN.com) when asked about the club's plans for September call-ups.
Unless the pen gets on track in the next couple of weeks, "right away" might prove to be the key phrase from that quote.
2. The Long-Awaited Return of Denard Span
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Denard Span is one confident dude.
"If I had money, which I do, I'd bet on us," Span told Jacob Emert of MLB.com, the day before he returned to the Washington Nationals lineup.
The numbers suggest Span's confidence is not misplaced. In his return to action Tuesday, Washington smashed past the San Diego Padres 8-3. Following the win, the Nats are 36-24 with the table-setter in the lineup and 27-37 when he misses out, per ESPN Stats & Info.
Span and his teammates' problem is that the team has plenty of work to do, as the squad trails the New York Mets by 5.5 games. Thanks to the way the schedule works out, the key for the Nats will be to try to at least stay within shouting distance throughout the home stretch. Beginning October 2, the Mets and Nats are set to square off in a potentially decisive three-game set to close out the season.
1. The Impending Return of Hunter Pence
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Hunter Pence is a difference-maker for the San Francisco Giants on the field and off it.
To prove the first part of that statement, just look at the team's record when he's on the bench. In 2015, the Giants are 34-17 when Pence plays and 32-42 when he's sidelined, according to Todd Wills of ESPN Stats & Info.
To prove the second part, just ask manager Bruce Bochy.
"I've had a few players that will step up and say some things, especially if I'm having a meeting," Bochy said during the team's run to the World Series title last fall, per John Schlegel of MLB.com. "But, you know, Hunter's a little different, there's no getting around it. He's inspiring, how he plays, and also in the clubhouse and when he says something, because he says it with such passion."
Pence plays with a relentless enthusiasm that energizes his teammates and electrifies the crowd at AT&T Park. The problem for the Giants is there's no clear timeline for when he'll be back from a strained left oblique.
"I really don't have a lot of information on when I can return," Pence told Damon Bruce on 95.7 The Game.
With the Giants just 2.5 games behind the Los Angeles Dodgers in the division, the club can afford to take a patient approach with the right fielder. There are seven games left between the rivals, so there's still time for the Giants to get Pence back to 100 percent and steal the NL West title from the Dodgers.
And as recent history has made abundantly apparent, the Giants are always a threat to go all the way when the team makes it to October.
Note: All stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and MLB.com. All salary information courtesy of Cot's Baseball Contracts on BaseballProspectus.com.
If you want to talk baseball, find me on Twitter @KarlBuscheck.
