Breaking Down the 5 Most Likely Impact MLB Trades Post-All-Star Break
It's seemingly come out of nowhere, but right there on the horizon is the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline. For the next two weeks, all would-be contenders will be scrambling to make deals.
Some deals are more likely to happen than others. Likewise, some deals are going to have a bigger impact than others. What we're here to do is put these two ideas together and narrow down which impact deals you can count on happening.
To do this, we won't just be looking at ideal destinations or simply making bold predictions. We've already gone down those two roads, so what we're doing here is different. The idea is to look at what's on the rumor mill and imagine what possibilities stand the best chance of becoming realities.
We'll be looking at five of those, starting with what would be the most impactful and going from there. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Johnny Cueto to the Los Angeles Dodgers
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According to Jon Morosi of Fox Sports, the Cincinnati Reds are finally ready to deal ace right-hander Johnny Cueto.
This means you can cue the clamoring. With a 2.52 ERA since 2011 and a 2.73 ERA this year, Cueto is a true ace. And with free agency looming for him, he's a rental plenty of teams can afford.
Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals have been aggressive pursuers of Cueto. What should worry them, though, is Jon Heyman of CBS Sports' report that the Los Angeles Dodgers also have Cueto in their sights.
If that's truly the case, they might as well reach out and grab him.
The big advantage the Dodgers have is their farm system. It began the year as Baseball America's No. 3 system, and it now features two top-five prospects in shortstop Corey Seager and left-hander Julio Urias. And as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports correctly noted, the Dodgers' farm system is deep enough beyond those two that they need not surrender either or both of them to make an impact trade.
Beyond having the farm system for the task, the Dodgers are also in an ideal position to pursue Cueto.
Injuries have rendered their starting rotation beyond Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke awfully thin, giving them a real need for the 29-year-old. Also, their position atop the NL West gives them a clear shot at going straight to the National League Division Series after acquiring Cueto. Above all, there's probably no team in baseball more desperate to win a championship than the Dodgers.
In light of all this, maybe the only thing that could stop the Dodgers from landing Cueto is if they go after Philadelphia Phillies left-hander Cole Hamels instead. According to Heyman, they just might.
Trading for Hamels, however, could cost the Dodgers either Seager or Urias. And though they wouldn't just be getting Hamels for the rest of 2015, here's thinking they'd rather pay a lesser price to get a better pitcher (Cueto) than a bigger price to get a controllable pitcher (Hamels).
So at some point in the next couple of weeks, expect to see Cueto trade in Cincinnati red for Los Angeles blue.
Jeff Samardzija to the Houston Astros
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After Cueto, the top available rental arm is probably Chicago White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija.
Unlike fellow rental Scott Kazmir, Samardzija's health isn't in question. He's also pitching well of late, having posted a 2.77 ERA in 52 innings over his last seven starts. And with the White Sox out of it in the AL Central and only sort of in the AL wild-card race, he definitely looks available.
As for who's interested in him, a pair of recent reports from Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe indicate the list includes just about everyone. The Astros. The Royals. The Blue Jays. The New York Yankees. The Los Angeles Angels. And so on.
The team that seems to have the strongest connection to Samardzija, however, is the Astros.
When Houston owner Jim Crane told Brian McTaggart of MLB.com that it's "no secret we'd like to get a little deeper on the starting pitching side," he wasn't lying. There's been a ton written about Houston's search for a starter, and it does need one to keep pace with the Angels in the AL West.
To this end, Samardzija is a guy the Astros have continually been linked to. And so it continues to go. In his latest report, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle listed only two rentals the Astros have interest in. One is Cueto. The other is Samardzija.
Samardzija would come a lot cheaper than Cueto and is therefore a better match for what the Astros have left in their once-mighty farm system. Knowing how well he's pitching now and how much he'd be upgrading his defense—see Baseball Prospectus—by moving from Chicago to Houston, Samardzija could prove to be nearly as good an addition as Cueto anyway.
Mind you, the Astros bringing in Samardzija probably isn't the same kind of slam dunk as the Dodgers landing Cueto. Because Samardzija is considerably more affordable than Cueto, he's a guy more teams are going to be willing and able to roll the dice on.
But between Houston's position in the AL West, its clear need for a starter and what looks like serious interest in Samardzija, the signs just seem to point toward a looming partnership.
Justin Upton to the New York Mets
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There's always a need for arms at the deadline. But in times like these, what teams really need are bats. On that front, the San Diego Padres have a huge trade chip in the person of Justin Upton.
With San Diego's 42-49 record putting it well off the pace in the NL West, Jon Heyman's insistence that "most believe" the Padres are prepared to deal Upton is, well, believable. He's a free-agent-to-be whom the Padres aren't re-signing, and his career .825 OPS and power/speed combo make for an attractive package.
As for where Upton could go, the list of contenders that need his bat in left field includes the Angels, Baltimore Orioles, New York Mets, Seattle Mariners and Tampa Bay Rays. And of the bunch, there's no ignoring the Mets.
It's true that Adam Rubin of ESPN New York recently reported the Mets are unlikely to land an outfielder. But Marc Carig of Newsday came along to say "not so fast" about that, and Heyman reports Upton is one of two big outfield bats on the Mets' radar.
If the Mets decide they want Upton, they have the pieces to deal. Beyond plenty of young pitching, they also have two talented outfielders in Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto who could interest the Padres.
Rather, the real question is whether the Mets would be willing to pay any sort of high price for a player they would only control through the rest of this season. Given their recent history, it seems like the answer would be no.
But at the same time, now is as good a time as any for the Mets to break character.
Adding Upton would be a boon to an offense that badly needs another bat to go with Curtis Granderson and Lucas Duda, and a good offense combined with the Mets' awesome pitching staff would give them a real chance of getting into October. Knowing what this franchise has been through recently, any kind of playoff berth would be a much-welcome buzz-generator.
Like Samardzija to the Astros, Upton to the Mets isn't a stone-cold lock. But he's likely to go somewhere in the next couple of weeks, and there's no better match for the Padres than the Mets.
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Carlos Gomez to the Cleveland Indians
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The Milwaukee Brewers are baseball's third-worst team at 39-52 and also a club that looks badly in need of a rebuild. So, we shouldn't be surprised that they sound prepared to be a major seller.
That's the latest from Jon Heyman, who reports Carlos Gomez is just one of many players they could part with, and he's certainly the most valuable of the bunch. He's been just OK this year, but he was one of MLB's top players in 2013 and 2014 and is under control through 2016.
As for where Gomez could go, Heyman says he's the other big item on the Mets' wish list. But since he'd cost a lot more than Upton and would put the Mets in an awkward position with Juan Lagares and his $23 million contract, well, let's just say that's another reason to project Upton to the Mets.
So instead, let's talk about the Cleveland Indians.
According to Ken Rosenthal, the Indians could approach the deadline in search of a bat they can control beyond 2015. Gomez is one of very few players who match that description, and he'd patch up what's arguably Cleveland's biggest need. Michael Bourn looks spent both offensively and defensively, so it's no wonder the Indians have gotten very little out of center field in 2015.
At 42-47, the Indians have a decent shot at earning a wild-card berth. That shot would get even better if they were to add Gomez. He'd upgrade the top of their lineup, and his presence in center field would help a pitching staff that, according to FanGraphs, has dealt with the majors' worst center field defense.
Even if the Indians were to fail to make the playoffs, oh well. Gomez would still be around in 2016. And given the ongoing fall of the Detroit Tigers and the potential of the Royals losing Alex Gordon to free agency this winter, 2016 figures to be a good year for the Indians to chase the AL Central title.
Lastly, the Indians and Brewers line up well as trading partners. Most notably, the Indians have three talented outfielders in Clint Frazier, Bradley Zimmer and Tyler Naquin who could interest Milwaukee.
Taking advantage of Gomez's outstanding trade value is certainly the right idea for the Brewers, and if that's the route they go, they'll find no better fit than the Indians.
Ben Zobrist to the Washington Nationals
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There are many available players who can fit specific needs, but no trade chip out there can satisfy multiple needs quite like Ben Zobrist can.
The Oakland veteran is a switch-hitter who can get on base and provide a bit of power and speed. You can also put his glove at pretty much any position. Add in how he's a free-agent-to-be who's only making $7.5 million this year, and you get pretty much the perfect trade candidate.
It does sound like some teams are more interested in Zobrist than others, however. The latest from Nick Cafardo is that the Mets, Yankees, San Francisco Giants and Washington Nationals are all in on him now, and all four need a good bat that can play anywhere.
Of those four, the Nationals stand out as being especially sensible for Zobrist.
With Anthony Rendon, Ryan Zimmerman, Jayson Werth and Denard Span all injured, the Nationals are badly in need of a talented utilityman. And even after those four return to action, they could continue finding everyday action for Zobrist by playing him at shortstop over the badly struggling Ian Desmond.
Beyond the Nationals' clear need for Zobrist, another thing that would seem to make a deal likely is the reality that they and the A's have done a lot of trading with each other over the last couple of years. A's general manager Billy Beane must know the Nats' farm system as well as he knows his own by now, and said farm system isn't devoid of talent after the presumably untouchable Lucas Giolito.
If there's a dark horse in the Zobrist sweepstakes to keep an eye on, it's probably the Royals. Jon Morosi put Zobrist on their radar back in late June. They could use him as a fill-in for Alex Gordon in left field in the short term and then play him at second base over Omar Infante later on down the line.
With the Royals likely to be focused on starting pitching above all else, here's thinking they wouldn't last in a bidding war with Washington. No team may be able to, in fact. The Nats need him the most, and they certainly know how to do business with the source.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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