25 Post-All-Star MLB Predictions for Trade Deadline, Playoff Races and More
Shhh...can you hear that? Total silence on the Major League Baseball landscape. With the All-Star Game having just passed by, the 2015 season is in the eye of the storm.
But this silence won't last, of course. The second half of the 2015 season is upon us, and that means the July 31 trade deadline and then two months of heated playoff races. It's all going to be several shades of bonkers, and there's no telling how things are going to pan out.
But darn it, we're going to give it a try anyway.
Ahead of you are 25 predictions for the season's second half. They range from forecasts for trade deadline activity to projections for which individual players are going to do what to who's going to come out on top in various playoff races.
If you'll follow me this way, we can get going with some predictions for the trade deadline...
Cole Hamels Will Stay Put in Philly
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Let's begin with an anticlimax, shall we? If you're waiting for a blockbuster deal involving Philadelphia Phillies ace Cole Hamels, don't hold your breath. Here's thinking he stays right where he is.
The ongoing buzz has been that the Phillies have put a high price tag on Hamels, who owns a career 3.29 ERA and has arguably pitched better than his 3.63 ERA this season. The latest from Jon Heyman of CBS Sports says this is still the case, as the Phillies are "not bending" with their demands.
In this market, that's not going to work. There are only so many teams with both the prospects and the money to acquire Hamels and his remaining contract, and none look like realistic landing spots.
The Boston Red Sox and Texas Rangers have often been linked to Hamels, but neither is in a position to sell the farm for him. The Chicago Cubs are in such a position, but Gordon Wittenmyer of the Chicago Sun-Times says their top prospects aren't for sale. The Los Angeles Dodgers would be a great fit for Hamels, but Mark Saxon of ESPN.com has indicated he's not even on their radar.
Once you get past these teams, the list of realistic landing spots for Hamels thins out in a hurry. And in general, you get the sense the Phillies are demanding the sticker price for a well-worn Ferrari in a market where teams just want something to get them from A to B.
In all, there's not much that points toward the Hamels blockbuster everyone is waiting for.
Jonathan Papelbon Will Get His Wish, Head to L.A.
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Though Hamels may well stick around in Philly this summer, Jonathan Papelbon likely won't.
Papelbon has been disgruntled for a while, but now he seems to be truly at the end of his rope. As he told Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer ahead of Tuesday's All-Star Game, he really wants out.
"It's time to you-know-what or get off the pot," said the 34-year-old right-hander. "The Phillies have got to make a decision. You've got to go one way or the other."
Strong words, but the Phillies would be wise to listen. Papelbon's 1.60 ERA shows he's still a very good reliever, and it's also Philly's ticket to get something for him while shedding his remaining contract.
As for who would be willing to take on both that contract and Papelbon's, ahem, direct personality, there's one team in particular that comes to mind: the Dodgers.
ESPN.com's Jayson Stark recently indicated the Dodgers are interested in adding Papelbon to their already solid bullpen. And though Papelbon may be a mouthy malcontent, Grantland's Jonah Keri can highlight how Dodgers skipper Don Mattingly may know better than anyone how to handle those.
Spoiler alert: Papelbon won't be the only big-name pitcher the Dodgers acquire. But we'll get to that later.
David Price, Scott Kazmir and Aroldis Chapman Will Also Stay Put
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Once you get past Hamels, the top available left-handed starters are David Price and Scott Kazmir. This is according to Aaron Gleeman of Hardball Talk, and anyone else who's glued to MLB Trade Rumors.
But here we go again with an anticlimax: Like Hamels, these two guys are staying put.
Price looks like a guy who should be traded, as he's a free-agent-to-be on a Detroit Tigers team with a big enough payroll and a record that's seemingly getting worse by the day. But general manager Dave Dombrowski insisted to Chis Iott of MLive.com that the Tigers are trying to win this year. Since that's likely a permanent directive from club owner Mike Ilitch, Price and his 2.38 ERA should stay put.
As for Kazmir, the Oakland Athletics' AL-worst 41-50 record makes him a more likely trade candidate. But the reality that the free-agent-to-be lefty hasn't been appearing in many trade rumors lately suggests teams may be more focused on his arm troubles than on his 2.49 ERA. That could be GM Billy Beane's cue to hold on to him and go the qualifying-offer route at the end of the season, which Peter Gammons reported was Beane's initial plan for Kazmir.
Lastly, here's another big name who won't be moved: Aroldis Chapman.
On account of his triple-digit heat and career 2.23 ERA, Chapman would be the most sought-after reliever on the market if the Cincinnati Reds were to make him available. But since Reds owner Bob Castellini has a reputation for being a competitive type, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe's report that the Reds don't want to move him as long as they still control him for another year likely isn't just smoke.
Now, then, back to the guys who will be traded.
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Ben Zobrist Will Head to the Angels
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Ben Zobrist can do anything. He's a switch-hitter with a good eye, some power and some speed, and he can play quality defense at just about every position. Add that to the facts that he's also a free-agent-to-be on an A's team that's going nowhere, and you get a perfect trade candidate.
Nick Cafardo reports that the San Francisco Giants, Washington Nationals and the two New York clubs want Zobrist the most. Look at those teams' needs, and that makes perfect sense.
But in this race, I'll take the dark horse: the Los Angeles Angels.
The Angels are in first place in the AL West after catching fire before the All-Star break and are thus headed toward the deadline with plenty of momentum. To see their hot stretch through to the end, however, they'll need a hitter—preferably one who hits left-handed and can lead off and play left field.
To these ends, Zobrist looks like their huckleberry. It's no wonder that, as Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports reported, former GM Jerry Dipoto was inquiring about him before his ouster. It's hard to imagine Zobrist is no longer on the Angels' radar just because Dipoto is gone, though, and the combination of their momentum and owner Arte Moreno's impulsiveness could lead to an aggressive move.
Zobrist would indeed be a fine get for the Angels. Meanwhile, up north of Anaheim, an even bigger trade may be brewing...
Johnny Cueto Will Head to the Dodgers
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We've already nixed a possible Aroldis Chapman trade, but there's one Red who looks like a stone-cold lock to be moved: Johnny Cueto.
His 2.52 ERA since 2011 marks him as a legit ace, and he's also a free-agent-to-be the Reds have absolutely no chance of re-signing. That's a player who frankly needs to be dealt.
As for where Cueto could go, Bob Nightengale of USA Today says the Houston Astros, Toronto Blue Jays and Kansas City Royals have been aggressive in their respective pursuits of the right-hander.
But if I had to pick—and I obviously do—I'll take the Dodgers instead.
Unlike Hamels, Cueto did show up on the list of top Dodgers targets offered by Mark Saxon. And indeed, he would look awesome next to Clayton Kershaw and Zack Greinke. Indeed again, the Dodgers can easily go get him if they want him.
The Dodgers' farm system is deep enough to a point where they may not have to give up prized shortstop Corey Seager or prized left-hander Julio Urias to get Cueto. But it's also possible to see the Dodgers being willing to part with either of them to get Cueto. It would mean a real shot at a World Series title, something the Dodgers are craving like Gollum craves the one ring.
If the Dodgers do acquire Cueto, they'll be snatching away Houston's top trade target. But not to worry, Astros fans...
The Astros Settle for Jeff Samardzija
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By all accounts, the Astros really want Johnny Cueto. And rightfully so, as he'd be an excellent right-handed complement for southpaw ace Dallas Keuchel.
But if the Dodgers get Cueto, the Astros will have to settle for someone else. To this end, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that they're interested in Chicago White Sox right-hander Jeff Samardzija.
He would also be a good fit in Houston. It may not seem like it from glancing at his 4.02 ERA, but this is a guy who posted a 2.99 ERA last year and has warmed up to the tune of a 2.40 ERA in his last six outings.
Besides which, Samardzija could benefit greatly from trading Chicago's defense for Houston's defense. Per Baseball Prospectus, that would mean swapping MLB's 29th-most efficient defense for its fourth-most efficient defense.
As a bonus, Samardzija is a much more sensible trade target for the Astros anyway.
They'd have to dish out a heavy prospect load to acquire Cueto, and now's not the best time for them to do that given that they're just beginning what should be a long-term run of success. Samardzija should cost considerably less and could therefore help Houston's present without compromising its future.
Speaking of futures, there's one team out there that needs to seriously consider addressing it...
James Shields Will Head to the North Side of Chicago
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The San Diego Padres went all-out over the winter for the sake of going all-in on 2015, but their gamble has failed to the tune of a 41-49 record. Hence, the buzz that they're prepared to blow it up.
One guy who could go is veteran right-hander James Shields. Per ESPN.com's Buster Olney, the Padres have designs on marketing Shields as a cheap Cole Hamels. In light of Shields' slightly lesser track record and smaller remaining contract, that's not a bad idea.
As for destinations, Olney's list of possibilities includes the Blue Jays, Dodgers and Cubs. And of those three, the Cubs stand out.
For one, the Cubs nearly signed Shields this past winter. For two, there's the possibility that the Padres are just as interested in jettisoning Shields' contract as they are in acquiring prospects. The Cubs, therefore, may be able to get him without giving up, say, Kyle Schwarber or Albert Almora.
If the Cubs were to acquire Shields, they'd have a good-looking foursome of him, Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel. And if anyone is scared of Shields' 4.01 ERA, keep in mind that he'd be upgrading to a much better defense and, per Baseball Prospectus, a superior strike-framer in Miguel Montero.
But Shields likely won't be the only big-name star the Padres move this summer...
Justin Upton Will Land with the Mets
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In these days of depressed offense, Justin Upton is an even more valuable trade chip than James Shields. That and the fact Upton is a free-agent-to-be are the main reasons why Ken Rosenthal and others have been speculating that the Padres will get what they can for him while they can.
If they do indeed put him out there, there are bound to be plenty of suitors. But we're going to skip right to one in particular: the Mets.
That the Mets need a bat is no secret, as they're third from the bottom in the majors in runs per game. Ideally, they'd acquire a right-handed bat to pair with Lucas Duda in the middle of their lineup. With a .753 OPS, 14 homers and 17 steals, Upton would be a pretty good choice.
And according to Jon Heyman, it so happens the Padres have been scouting the Mets' farm system. It also so happens there are pieces in there to get a deal done, including well-regarded outfielders Brandon Nimmo and Michael Conforto.
The Mets have been so stingy with their activities in recent years that a trade for Upton admittedly sounds too good to be true. But as Andy Martino of the New York Daily News said recently, signs say Mets GM Sandy Alderson has "one big bullet to fire" at the deadline. That big bullet could be Upton.
Now, then, enough with trade predictions. Let's move on to some player predictions for the second half.
Alex Rodriguez Will Finally Go Cold
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After looking washed up in 2012 and 2013 and missing 2014 due to a performance-enhancing-drug suspension, Alex Rodriguez has come back to post an .898 OPS with 18 home runs in 2015. And all this at 39 going on 40, to boot!
If you're into good comeback stories, here's hoping you've enjoyed it while it's lasted. Because it's not going to last much longer.
The New York Yankees' veteran slugger is on pace to finish with an adjusted OPS+ over 140 and, per ESPN.com, 33 homers. Throughout baseball history, there have only been two guys who put up numbers like that in their age-39 seasons: Hank Aaron in 1973 and Barry Bonds in 2004. A-Rod is thus trying to join a club that's incredibly hard to crack, putting the odds against him by default.
Oh, and there's also the suspicion that A-Rod's bat is slowing down. His huge comeback season has been built largely on hard contact, but Baseball Savant tells us he's making less of it as the year moves along. Here are his average exit velocities by month:
At the rate he's going, it won't be long before A-Rod's exit velocity is roughly league average. In other words, he may soon start hitting more like his age says he should be hitting.
Jorge Soler Will Catch Fire, Add His Name to ROY Discussion
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We go now from an old guy who should cool down to a young guy who should heat up. And in doing so, he should make a crowded National League Rookie of the Year race even more crowded.
In case you couldn't already tell, the guy we're getting at is Jorge Soler.
After bursting onto the scene with a .903 OPS in 24 games at the end of 2014, it's been a struggle for the Cubs rookie in 2015. In 57 games—he missed some time with an ankle injury—he has just a .702 OPS and four homers.
Part of Soler's problem has been his approach, as he has 76 strikeouts to just 16 walks in 239 plate appearances. Another part of his problem, however, looks like bad luck.
Soler is batting only .260 and slugging only .388 despite having the fifth-highest average exit velocity in the majors at 93.54 miles per hour, according to Baseball Savant. While that's helped him achieve a .376 average on balls in play, it hasn't helped his power.
Then there's the real kicker. Over half of Soler's batted balls have been in the air, and he's hitting the ball about as hard as Josh Donaldson and harder than Evan Gattis when he does get it in the air. That suggests Soler is owed a lot of power in the second half. When it comes, his ROY stock will get a big boost.
Chris Sale Will Make It to 300 Strikeouts
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This is a bold prediction. Maybe too bold, as nobody has topped 300 strikeouts since 2002.
But if anybody can do it, it's Chris Sale.
The White Sox ace is actually on pace to come pretty close. He already has 157 strikeouts in 17 starts, and ESPN.com projects him to finish with 296 in 32 starts. And that might actually be conservative.
Over his last 10 outings, Sale has averaged a ridiculous 11.3 strikeouts per start. If you average that out over 15 additional starts, you get 170 strikeouts and a final total of 327.
But even if Sale doesn't stay on that pace, he still looks like the best candidate to reach 300 strikeouts to come along in years. He's throwing a career-high 68.9 percent of his pitches for strikes, in large part because his 15.8 swinging-strike rate is the best since Johan Santana averaged the same mark in 2004.
And that lines up with what we know about Sale's stuff, which is beyond nasty. Per Baseball Prospectus, his mid-90s fastball has missed bats better than any other fastball, and he also boasts a changeup that's a top-five bat-misser and a slider that's a top-20 bat-misser.
All this makes Sale a pitcher with elite command and three elite pitches. It's no wonder he's been on a strikeout binge, and it would not be surprising if it sees him through to a 300-strikeout season.
Mike Trout Will Make It to 50 Home Runs
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Mike Trout is already the greatest young player in baseball history, and his most recent feat involved becoming the first player to win back-to-back All-Star Game MVPs.
For his next feat...well, how about a 50-homer season?
Trout has a shot as things stand now, as ESPN.com says the Angels star's 26 homers through 88 games put him on pace for 48. If he can get just a little hot in the second half, he could top 50 by season's end.
And the way Trout is going right now, him having a hot second half isn't asking too much.
To begin with, Trout's 42.7 Hard% says he's hitting the ball harder on average this season than he ever has. But he's been especially deadly since May turned to June. He's hit 14 homers in 37 games, and Baseball Savant puts his average exit velocity on line drives and fly balls in this span at a league-best 99.61 miles per hour.
In a nutshell: Right now, Trout is a better power hitter than he's ever been before. Do not be surprised if his final reward is a "50" or better in the home run column.
Bryce Harper Will Carry on as Baseball's Best Hitter
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We can't talk about Mike Trout without also talking about Bryce Harper. Them's the rules.
Regarding Harper, there's not much to say. Only this, really: He's been the best hitter in baseball in 2015, and he should stay that way.
Harper's status as baseball's best hitter is not up for debate. The Nationals star is hitting .339 and leading MLB in OBP (.464), slugging percentage (.704) and OPS (1.168).
As for why Harper can continue this, it's easy to have faith in him in light of how he hasn't slowed down at any point this season. Even in the aftermath of his ridiculous May, he's hit .360 with a 1.131 OPS. But in a related story, he's also teasing that we haven't even seen his best yet.
As Brooks Baseball can show, pitchers have responded to Harper's hot hitting by throwing him an increasing amount of off-speed stuff. His response to that is to hit off-speed stuff increasingly harder.
On that note, he's hitting all pitches harder right now than he has been all season. Baseball Savant puts his average exit velocity for July at 95.61 miles per hour, the best he's done in any month.
Meanwhile, the discipline Harper has shown off this season has never been better. FanGraphs puts his chase rate for July at just 23.4 percent, the lowest it's been all season.
So, if you've been waiting for Harper to cool off, you can stop. He's been the best hitter in baseball by a mile this season, and he's not showing any willingness to relinquish that title.
Taijuan Walker Will Be the AL's 2nd-Half Cy Young
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Who was the American League's first-half Cy Young? You could make a case for Dallas Keuchel, Chris Sale or Sonny Gray. They all did more or less (or a lot more than) OK.
But in the second half, here's the guy you should have your eye on: Taijuan Walker.
The young Seattle Mariners right-hander got off to a brutal start, posting a 7.33 ERA in his first nine starts. But in his last nine starts, he has a 3.03 ERA and an outstanding 61-4 K/BB ratio in 59.1 innings.
"The first month and a half of the season, I didn't have conviction behind anything," Walker told Grantland's Ben Lindbergh. "And then I knew I had to turn it around, or I wouldn't be pitching again."
It's not hard to see how Walker turned things around. Brooks Baseball can show that he simplified his arsenal to include almost exclusively fastballs and splitters. This shift has helped his walk and strikeout rates, and he's also seen improvement in the Soft% and Hard% departments.
And all this may only be the beginning of Walker's renaissance. He told Lindbergh that he knows he needs to start working in some breaking balls to go with his overpowering fastball and splitter. If he can do that without disrupting the command he's established, he'll be even tougher on opposing hitters.
Walker has already been one of the AL's most dominant starters in recent weeks. If he makes a few more tweaks, it's not hard to see him putting everyone else to shame down the stretch.
Clayton Kershaw Will Be the NL's 2nd-Half Cy Young
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Who was the National League's first-half Cy Young? Maybe the biggest surprise of all is that it was somebody not named Clayton Kershaw. What with him being Clayton Kershaw and all.
But don't worry. Kershaw's Cy Young self should show up in the second half.
The three-time Cy Young winner "only" has a 2.85 ERA in 18 starts, but in reality he's pitched a lot better than that. ERA estimator metrics like FIP, xFIP and SIERA all place him among the game's top five pitchers, and that's a more accurate depiction of how good he's been.
With a 2.0 BB/9, Kershaw is limiting walks at a well-below-average rate. With an 11.7 K/9, he's striking batters out at a higher rate than anyone else in the Senior Circuit. And despite indications to the contrary, he's also been excellent at managing contact. He has one of the NL's top 15 ground-ball percentages and, per Baseball Savant, the lowest average exit velocity of any qualified pitcher.
Kershaw has thus been doing everything anyone could ask of him. He just hasn't been rewarded for it.
At least, not until recently. In his last nine starts before the break, Kershaw posted a 1.53 ERA with 87 strikeouts and 11 walks in 64.2 innings. He thus went into the break looking like his old self.
Coming out of the break, it should be the same story.
Carlos Correa Will Be the AL's 2nd-Half MVP
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Who was the American League's first-half MVP? Probably Mike Trout. Actually, yeah, definitely Mike Trout.
And as we discussed earlier, Trout should continue being awesome in the second half. Knowing that, landing on Carlos Correa as the AL's second-half MVP is ignoring a sure thing in favor of a wild card.
But hey, at least the young Astros shortstop is a highly talented wild card.
Correa was arguably the best prospect in baseball at the time of his call-up, and he's shown that his talent can play in the majors. In 32 games, he's hit .276 with an .820 OPS, seven homers and five steals, all while playing nifty defense at shortstop. Add that up, and you get an elite player.
And this may only be a tease of what's to come. Correa has slowed in July, but he's done so while improving his walk and strikeout rates. That signals an ability to make adjustments, a habit that will allow him to carry on as an elite player as he impacts the game at the plate, on the basepaths and on defense.
Mind you, that doesn't mean Correa is going to be the best player in the AL. But he doesn't necessarily have to be to look like the league's second-half MVP. He has a chance to carry an Astros team that's loaded with inconsistent hitters and is also currently without injured slugger George Springer.
By comparison, Trout should have plenty of help carrying the Angels down the stretch. That Albert Pujols fellow is pretty good again and has been helping Trout with the heavy lifting for some time now.
Andrew McCutchen Will Be the NL's 2nd-Half MVP
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Who was the NL's first-half MVP? The list of candidates contains Bryce Harper's name up top, then lots and lots of space, and then everyone else.
But in the second half, it'll be Andrew McCutchen. The Pittsburgh Pirates' star center fielder is used to being in MVP discussions, and he's poised to find himself in yet another down the stretch.
McCutchen is, after all, heading into the second half on one hell of a hot streak. In 60 games dating back to May 7, he's hit .343 with a 1.033 OPS and 10 home runs. And this has been no fluke, as Baseball Savant has McCutchen ranked fifth in average exit velocity in this span.
The difference for McCutchen during his hot stretch? Jeff Sullivan of FanGraphs dug into that and found that the left knee issue McCutchen was dealing with early in the season has apparently gone away, as he's once again able to shift his momentum onto his front leg when he hits.
Assuming McCutchen can keep this up, it's only a matter of time before he starts attracting MVP attention. The Pirates have a well-rounded team this year, but he's still very much the linchpin of their offensive attack. Without him, runs would be hard for Pittsburgh to come by.
Mind you, the smart money is still on Harper coming away with the NL MVP on the end. But with a hot performance in the second half, McCutchen should be able to make it a close race.
The Twins Will Run Out of Magic
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No team has been a bigger surprise in 2015 than the Minnesota Twins. After four years in a row of at least 90 losses, they're 49-40 and only 4.5 games off the pace set by the Kansas City Royals in the AL Central.
But now's the part where I position rain clouds directly over the parade: This is not going to last.
If you're into such things, you might be shouting at your screen about the Twins' record being more or less in line with their Pythagorean record. That says they're not where they are by virtue of luck, but...well, they are. We can tell by noting the Twins aren't really good at anything.
The Twins are seventh in the AL in runs scored, making them a mediocre offensive team. But since they're also 11th in the AL in OPS, they've arguably scored too much.
Meanwhile, the Twins are also seventh in the AL in runs allowed. They're thus not particularly good at preventing runs either and should probably be even worse than they have been. Their pitching staff has the league's lowest strikeout rate, and their defense ranks in the bottom half of MLB in efficiency.
Add it all up, and one can see why FanGraphs has the Twins projected to do worse than .500 the rest of the way. So does Baseball Prospectus. In time, both should prove right.
The Giants Will Run Out of Gas
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The Giants went into the All-Star break very much in the race in the NL West. At 46-43, the defending champs are only 4.5 games off the pace set by the rival Dodgers.
From here, however, here's thinking it's all downhill for the Giants. Or at least, very little uphill.
I'm basing this thought in part on the projections, as both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus project that the Giants will ultimately fall short of the Dodgers. But there's also what the Giants have done recently. They were 30-20 on May 29 and are 16-23 ever since. Their run prevention has let them down, as they've gone from allowing 3.7 runs per game to allowing 4.2 runs per game.
Exactly how the Giants are going to fix that is a good question. Outside of Madison Bumgarner and Chris Heston, their starting rotation is a total crapshoot. It'll be even more so if Heston, who's never pitched a full season in the big leagues, tires down the stretch.
There's a real chance the Giants offense will also struggle down the stretch. It's been able to thrive largely on the strength of breakout performances by Matt Duffy, Brandon Crawford and Joe Panik. There's no ignoring the "too good to be true" vibe that they give off.
And lastly, there's this: As the Giants know from their 2011 and 2013 experiences, running out of gas is what reigning champions just tend to do. After so much baseball the year before, there comes a time when the wall is there and there's just no getting around it.
Yes, the Cubs Will Make the Playoffs
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If you're still having trouble believing the Cubs are in line for a playoff spot at 47-40, here's a hint: Believe it. The Cubs are a good team now, and chances are we haven't even seen them at their best yet.
Chicago's offense has the potential to be a lot better than it's been. Anthony Rizzo and Kris Bryant have been fantastic, and yet the Cubs are only 11th in the NL in runs scored. But with Jorge Soler due to heat up, Addison Russell potentially finding his stride and Kyle Schwarber there to step in and provide some offense from catcher and/or left field, the Cubs could climb the offensive ranks in a hurry.
Meanwhile, Chicago's pitching is already good and could get even better. Jon Lester, Jake Arrieta and Jason Hammel have already made for a quality trio of pitchers. Adding James Shields to the mix would thus put Chicago's rotation among the NL's elite.
Mind you, the Cubs don't just have my optimism going for them. FanGraphs projects them to do better than .500 the rest of the way. Not to be outdone, Baseball Prospectus projects them to have the NL Central's best record the rest of the way.
Either way, the Cubs should hold off their wild-card pursuers. Those would be the Mets and Giants, one of whom is due to sink and the other of whom just needs too much to go right to make it to October.
The Pirates Will Easily Nab the NL's Other Wild-Card Spot
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Yeah, this one's easy. The Pirates have the NL's second-best record at 53-35 and are therefore due for at least a wild-card spot. It would take an epic collapse for the Pirates to miss out entirely, and one of those isn't in the cards.
Led by Andrew McCutchen, the Pirates have an offense that at least qualifies as decent, as it ranks seventh in the NL in runs scored. And it should stay that way, as the only clear regression candidate in its midst is Francisco Cervelli.
If Pittsburgh's offense can continue being so much as decent, that should be good enough for the club's pitching staff.
The Pirates have the NL's second-best ERA at 2.86, and the only real threat to that is a regression on the part of A.J. Burnett. And even if he ceases to be an ace-like pitcher, the Pirates should still have two of those in Gerrit Cole and Francisco Liriano backed by a strong supporting cast and a killer bullpen.
Given all this, it's not surprising that the projections don't see the Pirates collapsing down the stretch. Baseball Prospectus thinks they'll at least do better than .500, and FanGraphs projects them to have the NL Central's best record down the stretch.
At the end, the Pirates should once again raise the Jolly Roger in honor of their third straight October.
The Mariners Will Catch Fire, Run Down a Wild-Card Spot
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The Seattle Mariners were a trendy pick to not only win the AL West this year, but to go all the way to the World Series. But halfway through the season, they're 41-48 and making many look like fools.
But darn it, I'm not giving up on them yet. Somewhere, somehow, this Mariners team has a run in it.
The big problem in Seattle is a familiar one: scoring runs. The Mariners rank 14th in the AL in runs scored, in part because they have the league's lowest average on balls in play at .277. If only that could change.
But that's the thing: It should change. Baseball Savant says the Mariners have the highest average exit velocity of any team in the majors at 89.92 miles per hour. Because we know there's a direct correlation between exit velocity and production, they're therefore owed a lot of good luck in the second half.
Meanwhile, on the mound, the Mariners could have a heck of a rotation down the stretch. Felix Hernandez is still the man at the top, but let's not forget Taijuan Walker is on track to be his equal in the second half. Behind them come Mike Montgomery, Hisashi Iwakuma and, when healthy, James Paxton. If they all pitch up to their capabilities, that's a rotation that could do a lot of damage.
Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus project the Mariners to do better than .500 the rest of the way. If things come together, they should do a lot better than that on their way to earning a wild-card berth.
The Astros Will Win a Down-to-the-Wire Fight with Angels for AL West Title
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Mark these words: The most compelling division race down the stretch will be in the AL West. The Astros and Angels are currently separated by half a game, and that's the setup for what should be a back-and-forth battle that goes down to the wire and results in one division winner and one wild card.
The winner in the end: Houston, by a nose.
The Astros ended the first half on a sour note, losing eight out of 10. But their odds for a strong second half will look that much better if they add Jeff Samardzija and Carlos Correa evolves into a force. In addition, they'll eventually get Jed Lowrie and George Springer back from injuries.
As for the Angels, acquiring Ben Zobrist would shore up their offense in exactly the way they need to. But outside of him, Mike Trout and Albert Pujols, the Angels would still be short on consistent hitters. Likewise, the back end of their rotation could also be a question mark for the rest of the season.
Both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus say I'm going against the projections here, as both have the Astros going under .500 the rest of the way. But if any team can beat the projections, why not one that was legitimately one of the AL's best teams for the majority of the first half?
The Yankees Will Win the AL East by Default
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The AL East is MLB's answer to Amazon Prime Day. It's supposed to be a big deal, but when you look at it you can't help but shrug and ask, "Is that it?"
It's a mess, all right. Every team is flawed. And because every team is flawed, it's a division that anyone could take control of down the stretch.
But let's put our faith in the least flawed team of the bunch: the Yankees.
The Yankees are not a particularly good team. You can tell by the way they've been playing .500 baseball over the last two months. Beyond that, their lineup has some automatic outs in it and will be even shakier once A-Rod cools off. Their starting rotation, meanwhile, has been short on sure things since Day 1.
Relative to the competition in the division, however, the 2015 Yankees might as well be the 1927 Yankees.
The Tampa Bay Rays can pitch, but they can't hit a lick. The Baltimore Orioles have an incomplete lineup and rotation. The Blue Jays can hit as well as any team, but pitching eludes them. The Red Sox have been better lately but are still cursed with a flimsy offense and the most volatile starting rotation in the majors.
So, it's not the least bit surprising that both FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus see the Yankees coming out on top in the end. They're vulnerable, but nobody in the AL East is up to the task of taking them down.
The Royals, Cardinals, Nationals and Dodgers Will Run Away with Division Titles
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To recap our playoff-chase predictions: The Twins and Giants are doomed, the Astros and Yankees are winning division titles, and the Pirates, Cubs, Angels and Mariners are all winning wild cards.
This just leaves the AL Central and all three NL divisions, which is where things get simple. If you can see who leads those divisions now, you can see who will be leading them in the end.
With the Tigers already having fallen off the pace and the Twins likely to follow suit, the Royals could play the entire second half without having their reign atop the AL Central challenged.
The same story goes for the NL West. If the Giants falter, the Dodgers will be without worthy challengers. And even if they had some, adding Jonathan Papelbon and Johnny Cueto would make them too good anyway.
The NL Central is a different story, as the Pirates pose a real threat to the St. Louis Cardinals. But the Cardinals have a starting rotation that's just too good and an offense that's about to welcome back Matt Holliday's bat. They don't appear primed for a regression.
Lastly, there's the NL East. The Mets will make it interesting if they acquire Justin Upton, but even they have to know the Nationals' best baseball is still ahead of them. They stand to get Anthony Rendon and Ryan Zimmerman back from injuries in the near future, and Stephen Strasburg, Jayson Werth and Denard Span will eventually follow suit. When they're finally healthy, the Nats will take off.
And that, as they say, will be that.
We'll talk again in a couple months when some (or most...or all...) of these predictions are up in flames. Until then, enjoy the second half.
Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted/linked.
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