Predicting the 2015 MLB All-Star Game Starting Lineups
Major League Baseball released its sixth All-Star Game balloting update Monday, with final results for the July 14 game in Cincinnati to be announced Sunday. Voters have until Thursday night to cast online, although there is always the threat of some votes being “scrubbed” away when the final count is announced.
The latest update shows that MLB’s cancelling of more than 60 million votes has taken some of the steam out of the Kansas City Royals’ domination of the American League starting lineup, but the message has likely been received that some tweaking to the system is needed going forward.
For now, we have the system MLB has relied upon since 1970, where fan voting determines non-pitching starters for each league, including a designated hitter. Despite the game determining home-field advantage in the World Series, the fan-voting system remains in place and has led to ballot-stuffing incidents, including this year, when eight Royals players were leading the AL voting as of June 15. That led to the cancelling of votes days later.
In the American League, there are only two races—second base and DH—where the leader and second-place player are within 1 million votes of each other. In the National League, there are likewise two—the race for third base and the third outfielder.
Some of the spots are therefore likely cemented, but a surge in some territories could lead to final-week upsets. So, knowing how things stand just days before polling closes, click through to check out Bleacher Report’s All-Star Game starter predictions.
Starting Pitchers: Chris Sale, White Sox; Max Scherzer, Nationals
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Chris Sale and Tampa Bay Rays right-hander Chris Archer have been back and forth as the AL’s top starter, but as of Monday, Sale had a better strikeout rate, FIP and FanGraphs WAR.
The AL could not go wrong in naming either man a starter. Sale’s next turn is Tuesday and Archer goes Friday. With Sale being the veteran and AL manager Ned Yost seeing more of him than he’d like as skipper of the Kansas City Royals, Sale will get the ball.
CBSSports.com's Matt Snyder made a good case for yet another AL option, Houston's Dallas Keuchel: "Another nationally underrated guy, Keuchel [as of June 26] leads the majors in innings pitched, complete games and shutouts. He's 9-3 with a 2.17 ERA and 0.96 WHIP for a first-place team that deserves a pretty big stage at this year's All-Star Game."
The NL pick is as certain as the AL pick is uncertain.
Max Scherzer has easily been the best starter in the NL, and his 2.03 FIP and 4.2 FanGraphs WAR show as much. He also has his recent run of dominance in his last three outings where he’s allowed a total of six hits and two runs with a no-hitter stuck in the middle.
Scherzer is the no-brainer here.
First Base: Miguel Cabrera, Tigers; Paul Goldschmidt, Diamondbacks
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Miguel Cabrera leads Kansas City’s Eric Hosmer by nearly 2.5 million votes, which is a good thing for the American League, and the World Series-hopeful Royals, considering Cabrera is far and away the best first baseman in the league.
Cabrera’s 186 wRC+, .439 wOBA, .454 OBP and 3.5 FanGraphs WAR entering the week all led the league, and frankly, it’s not even close. Cabrera is the best hitter on the planet, and in a game that actually counts for something significant, he should be and will be the All-Star starter for the AL.
On the other side, Paul Goldschmidt has a strong case as being the best hitter in the game not named Miguel Cabrera. He leads NL first basemen in all of the same categories Cabrera leads in, and like his counterpart, Goldschmidt leads them by plenty.
Goldschmidt made a run at the NL MVP Award in 2013 and would have done so last season as well had a broken hand not limited him to 109 games. This year, he is healthy and back on track to make another run at the award. His starting the All-Star Game is just another honor to add to what is becoming an outstanding career.
Second Base: Jose Altuve, Astros; Dee Gordon, Marlins
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Kansas City’s Omar Infante inexplicably leads Jose Altuve by about 232,000 votes as of the Monday update, and even more inexplicably, he leads Cleveland Indians second baseman Jason Kipnis by more than 3.6 million.
Based on the numbers, Kipnis is clearly the most deserving man at the position. And like the first basemen from each league, there really isn’t anyone challenging him for the distinction.
But because his fanbase has failed to keep him in the voting race, Altuve will overtake Infante, as he is completely undeserving of such an honor. Altuve is at least a top-five second baseman in his league and has a track record of being among the best in either.
Like last season, Dee Gordon’s hot start has made him the front-runner, and it’s not a lead he will relinquish. He is about the only positive thing happening for the Miami Marlins right now, so their fanbase will keep him in the lead through Thursday.
If we're talking about the most deserving player at the position, however, San Francisco Giants second baseman Joe Panik has a legitimate claim to the title. He went into the week second in the league in batting average (behind Gordon) and first in OBP (.379), wOBA (.366), wRC+ (140) and FanGraphs WAR (3.0).
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Third Base: Josh Donaldson, Blue Jays; Todd Frazier, Reds
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Josh Donaldson rightfully overtook Kansas City’s Mike Moustakas in the latest update. While Moustakas is worthy of an All-Star nod this season, Donaldson is having an MVP-caliber first half and deserves to start.
He has pushed to a lead of almost 1.4 million votes and is one of only five positional leaders in either league to have votes in the eight digits. Donaldson leads all players with 11.7 million votes.
Donaldson needs that kind of total, because Moustakas is the lone runner-up in either league to also have at least 10 million votes. The fact that the Blue Jays fans, and common sense, got Donaldson into the lead in the last week shows he will keep it in the next three days.
Todd Frazier trails Matt Carpenter by about 63,000 votes as of Monday’s update, but his candidacy has gotten an unexpected spark by Giancarlo Stanton’s wrist injury. Because Stanton’s power won’t be on display during the All-Star festivities, attention has turned to Frazier and his 25 home runs and 166 wRC+. He leads his position in both categories as well as wOBA (.415) and FanGraphs WAR (4.4).
Because of Frazier’s numbers, the unintended consequence of Stanton’s injury and because Reds fans are hungry for a starter when they host the Midsummer Classic, he deserves the honor, and Reds fans will not disappoint him this week.
Shortstop: Alcides Escobar, Royals; Jhonny Peralta, Cardinals
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Alcides Escobar is good on defense, usually a liability on offense and a Royal. That trio of facts means he has a huge 2.6-million-vote lead over Detroit Tigers shortstop Jose Iglesias.
Shortstop is a shallow position in both leagues this season, but Iglesias is the most deserving of the starting spot, as he is the best in the league on both sides of the ball.
Teammate Josh Wilson described the allure of watching Iglesias field his position to the Detroit News' Chris McCosky: "He plays with such a confidence, one that I've rarely seen anybody play with before. ...Iggy goes out and plays the game like it's BP or he's in his backyard. That confidence carries him out there. ...It's fun to watch."
Unfortunately for MLB and the American League, Carlos Correa’s career is fewer than 100 plate appearances old. He is the most talented player at the position and has already shown he is the most productive with five home runs, nine doubles and 51 total bases in 93 plate appearances.
In a world where baseball traditionalists don’t infect everyone’s minds with “paying dues” or “not enough time in the big leagues,” the game would showcase its next megastar by having Correa start, as it should have with Yasiel Puig in 2013. But the baseball world is not perfect; it is losing young fans to other sports and Correa probably won’t even be a manager’s pick, even though he would be a perfect Final Vote candidate.
That means the AL will start Escobar, leaving MLB fans to hope he gets a ball in the hole and one up the middle so he can showcase what at times can be some of the most amazing and flashy defense we’ve seen at the position since Rey Ordonez.
San Francisco Giants shortstop Brandon Crawford is having a career season, and his defense probably puts him ahead of Jhonny Peralta in terms of most deserving in the NL, but Peralta has been just as good as Crawford offensively, and he leads by almost 3 million votes.
That is an insurmountable lead, and, honestly, he’s not a bad choice. Crawford will still certainly make the team with his manager, Bruce Bochy, having a hand in picking the reserves.
Catcher: Salvador Perez, Royals; Buster Posey, Giants
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Both starters are here because each has a big enough lead in the voting that the second-place catchers won’t have enough time to close the gap. But only one should be a starter.
Buster Posey is easily worthy of the honor, as he is the best in the NL.
Salvador Perez, however, is not. Of the four qualified catchers in the AL, Perez rates fourth in terms of FanGraphs WAR, OBP, wOBA and wRC+. He also has been just the third-best defensive catcher of the four, according to FanGraphs.
If we like offense for the award, which we usually do, then Oakland A’s catcher Stephen Vogt is the most deserving. Entering the week, he led all qualified AL catchers in average (.300), OBP (.393), slugging (.532), OPS (.925), home runs (13, although this is a tight race, as all four are in double digits), wOBA (.390), wRC+ (156) and Isolated Power (.232), FanGraphs tells us.
Vogt will likely make it as a reserve, but Perez’s lead is just too massive to overcome at this point.
AL OFs: Mike Trout, Angels; Lorenzo Cain, Royals; Alex Gordon, Royals
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This is a solid trio, and it’s difficult to disagree with any of the selections. Of course, you really have to like defense, because Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon are worthy mostly because of their gloves, not their bats.
Fortunately for Royals fans and lovers of defense, the leads for Cain and Gordon are big enough as of Monday to ensure they will start.
However, an argument can be made that Great American Ball Park in Cincinnati is one of the easier outfields in the majors to navigate because it is small, and those dimensions favor power hitters like Yoenis Cespedes and Jose Bautista, who are fourth and fifth in AL outfield voting, respectively. Watching those guys get a few at-bats in that environment could be memorable and more beneficial for the AL than having Cain and Gordon roam corner outfield spots.
Again, though, it is difficult to argue with these starters, especially when we are putting more emphasis than ever on defense.
NL OFs: Bryce Harper, Nationals; Andrew McCutchen, Pirates; Joc Pederson, Dodgers
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In terms of voting, the NL is digging deep into the ballot barrel to find its starters since the Nos. 2-4 vote-getters were all injured as of Tuesday. In terms of talent and deservedness, it has the cream of the crop.
Giancarlo Stanton, Matt Holliday and Nori Aoki are all on the disabled list with injuries, and Holliday and Aoki are questionable to return by the All-Star break.
As for what is left, Bryce Harper is an MVP candidate, Andrew McCutchen is among the best offensive outfielders in the league and Joc Pederson is arguably better than McCutchen right now.
Harper and McCutchen are easy calls for the casual fan. They are household baseball names and deserving of starting spots. Pederson is the newcomer and is somewhat unknown.
Get to know him. The Dodgers rookie center fielder is among the game’s brightest young stars and is third among NL outfielders in home runs. On Monday, he became the only NL rookie besides Albert Pujols to hit 20 homers before the All-Star break. He was also third among NL outfielders in OBP (.384), slugging (.529), OPS (.913), wRC+ (153), wOBA (.389) and FanGraphs WAR as of Monday (3.5).
Even though Pederson is sixth in the All-Star voting, him starting with Harper and McCutchen is the best, and most entertaining, outfield the league could produce.
Designated Hitter: Nelson Cruz, Mariners
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Prince Fielder is not on the DH ballot despite having 284 plate appearances at the position and only 46 as a first baseman, where he is third in the voting. If he were on the DH ballot, Fielder would probably be the most worthy starter.
Alas, he is not. And of the players who are on the DH ballot, Nelson Cruz is the most deserving. (Besides, he is about as deserving as Fielder would be, so it would be a tossup anyway.)
Kansas City’s Kendrys Morales led the position last week, but Cruz made a strong push to make up nearly 300,000 votes. He now leads by just more than 200,000, and his .305/.368/.552 slash line, .920 OPS, 19 home runs, 158 wRC+, .392 wOBA and .247 ISO as of Monday, according to FanGraphs, make him the deserving candidate.
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