Identifying the Perfect Fit for Each Coveted MLB Trade Chip
One of Bud Selig’s primary goals in adding a second wild-card playoff spot to both leagues was to put more teams in postseason contention, creating more excitement and fan interest throughout the summer.
A consequence of achieving that goal has been tamping down the trade buzz heading into the All-Star break, one of the game’s most exciting and heavily debated portions of the regular season.
Before the second wild-card spot was implemented for the 2012 season, as many as 10 teams could easily be declared sellers at this point, as they’ve fallen well behind each league’s best second-place club. But in the era of the second wild-card berth, more teams are willing to hang onto their assets and reach for the play-in game.
As a result, only five teams can realistically declare themselves sellers right now, and even that number is arguably too large as some of those teams still see themselves as a hot streak away from contending. And, unfortunately for the trade season, those teams are correct in assessing their chances.
That leaves only two teams as true sellers at this point—the Philadelphia Phillies and Milwaukee Brewers. However, teams are scouting pieces of several other clubs in case those hot streaks never come.
While many of the trade chips are good fits for several contending teams, we will look at the perfect fit for each player based on production, cost, value and need.
Johnny Cueto, Cincinnati Reds
1 of 10
Cueto appears to be the best pitching option for the price, which as of now is rumored to be premium, according to Jayson Stark of ESPN.com. The Reds are trying to have it both ways by getting a major haul for their free-agent-to-be ace while keeping him for the All-Star Game they are hosting.
If the team expects to get a significant package in return—a rarity in this age of valuing cost-control pieces—it should deal Cueto sooner rather than later. Otherwise, the price will drop, putting a number of teams in play.
Cueto has not been as dominant this year as he has in the recent past, but he’s still been good. His 2.98 ERA is strong, and his 3.27 FIP is on par with his 2012 season, when he finished fourth in Cy Young Award voting, and better than last season, when he finished second.
The New York Yankees, Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox and Detroit Tigers have all been in attendance of Cueto’s recent starts and have rotation needs. And all but the Tigers seem to have the assets to entice the Reds, though not all are willing to part with them for a rental.
Cueto’s perfect fit predictor is the Dodgers. Of all the real contenders, they need to add pitching the most—Boston is not a real contender—and could give up some major league talent along with a couple of prospects. Because Cueto does not come with draft-pick compensation for the acquiring team, his price tag drops, meaning the Dodgers will not have to include a prospect such as Corey Seager or Julio Urias. They could also afford to send cash Cincinnati’s way.
Cole Hamels, Philadelphia Phillies
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Philadelphia general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. took a major gamble by not trading Hamels in the offseason. Then starting pitchers started dropping like flies, and Amaro has not budged on his asking price for an ace with three seasons and $73.5 million remaining on his contract after 2015.
An NL executive told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark that Hamels' market value is "higher than it was two months ago," but Stark added that inquiring teams are “complaining” that Amaro is still asking too much for Hamels.
The Phillies will be patient—why rush now?—and wait up until the deadline for a team to crack and pay the asking price. A recent hamstring strain that pushed back Hamels' latest start also elongates the process.
Hamels’ perfect fit predictor is the Red Sox. The Red Sox were reportedly involved in discussions before the season, but they supposedly balked at Amaro's demand of either Blake Swihart or Mookie Betts in return, according to Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal (h/t WEEI 93.7 FM). Given the way the Red Sox have pitched this year, though, they are more likely to part with young players to get Hamels. The free-agent market is ripe with front-line pitchers this winter, but the Red Sox will need at least two to contend for a division title next season. Hamels solves half of that problem.
Scott Kazmir, Oakland A’s
3 of 10
The veteran left-hander has a 2.84 ERA and 134 ERA+ in 13 starts this season—2.18 in his last four and 1.62 in his first five. The A’s are still not out of their races and have greatly underperformed based on run differential (plus-36), but reality is bound to set in.
Kazmir will be a free agent after the season, and the A’s cannot afford him. So general manager Billy Beane will make a deal, and it could be before the deadline if it means getting a better return package.
Kazmir’s perfect fit predictor is the Houston Astros. Just about all the teams interested in Johnny Cueto are interested in Kazmir, but the Houston Astros are aiming somewhere slightly lower in price. Kazmir could be their man, and Jon Heyman of CBS Sports wrote Friday that the team is aiming for an arm better than Philadelphia’s Aaron Harang. Again, Kazmir fits that bill.
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Jonathan Papelbon, Philadelphia Phillies
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Papelbon wants to pitch for a contender, and the Phillies are making it known they are willing to listen for offers from the many teams that are scouting their closer.
He has allowed three earned runs in 26.2 innings (1.01 ERA) and is striking out 10.5 hitters per nine innings, two more than his previous two seasons.
That rejuvenation makes him a valuable piece, but he is owed around $8 million for the rest of this season and has a $13 million vesting option for next season that kicks in if he finishes 55 games this season or 100 between 2014-15, which means he will want to close wherever he goes. Papelbon has a say in that, as he has 17 teams in his no-trade clause.
Papelbon’s perfect fit predictor is the Toronto Blue Jays. If he has to be a closer, it limits his market, especially with that vesting option in play. But the Blue Jays need bullpen help, and if the Phillies are willing to eat some of Papelbon’s salary, this can happen.
Francisco Rodriguez, Milwaukee Brewers
5 of 10
K-Rod is again having a wonderful year in his age-33 season. He has a 1.13 ERA, is striking out nearly 10 hitters per nine innings and has allowed only one home run.
The Brewers should be desperate to dump salary, and Rodriguez falls into that category. He is owed $5.5 million next season and a $6 million salary for 2017 or a $4 million buyout. If the Brewers are to move him, they are likely going to need to send some cash with him in his travel bags.
Rodriguez’s perfect fit predictor is the Dodgers. They need bullpen help and can afford to pay K-Rod. Plus, he could be willing to set up for incumbent dominant closer Kenley Jansen in Los Angeles for a chance at another World Series ring.
Ben Zobrist, Oakland A’s
6 of 10
A knee injury that required surgery has affected Zobrist’s season earlier this year, but since June 9 he is hitting .333/.400/.583 with a .983 OPS. His OBP for the season is .326 even in a down year to this point.
Zobrist’s uptick in offense should get Oakland’s phones ringing. He can play all over the diamond and is a valuable bat in any lineup, especially when he gets out of the offensively depressing O.co Coliseum.
“He's got a lot of trade value," an NL executive told ESPN.com’s Jayson Stark. "If people feel he's healthy and he resembles his normal self, he fits on anyone's roster, because of all the positions he can play.”
Zobrist’s perfect fit predictor is the Chicago Cubs. He played for manager Joe Maddon in Tampa Bay, and the Cubs need another veteran presence on a contending team full of young players. Not only that, but Zobrist provides relief all over the outfield and shortstop, where the Cubs have underachieving offensive producers.
Aroldis Chapman, Cincinnati Reds
7 of 10
The prevailing feeling is the Reds won’t part with Chapman, who won’t be a free agent until after next season. But Chapman, possibly more than Johnny Cueto, is their most valuable chip on the trade market.
Also, unlike Jonathan Papelbon, Chapman does not have a no-trade clause. That means teams with a closer can trade for him, which opens up the market.
The Dodgers would be a fit for Chapman, who is Cuban just like Yasiel Puig, Yasmani Grandal, Alex Guerrero and Enrique Hernandez. However, the Dodgers are not willing to part with the pieces it will likely take to land Chapman, one of the elite relievers in baseball with his nearly 16 strikeouts per nine innings.
Chapman’s perfect fit predictor is the Texas Rangers. They have the players and money to afford Chapman. Plus, their bullpen is 27th in the majors in ERA (4.45) and 28th in strikeouts per nine innings with 7.1. The Rangers do not have a proven closer, so Chapman can be the difference-maker they need in a tight American League West race.
Carlos Gomez, Milwaukee Brewers
8 of 10
Gomez is coming off two seasons in which he was among the highest-valued outfielders in the majors, behind only Mike Trout and Andrew McCutchen, according to FanGraphs.
That production is way down this season, but Gomez is under contract through next season and is owed a reasonable $9 million in 2016. He is hitting .275/.313/.440 with a .752 OPS and 103 OPS+. If he bounces back under more positive circumstances—the Brewers have fired a manager and were out of contention in May—he could be a spark plug for a contender with room in the outfield.
Gomez’s perfect fit predictor is the Cleveland Indians. The Tribe are 4.5 games out of a wild-card berth, and center fielder Michael Bourn has a 71 OPS+. He is under contract through next season (with a vesting option for 2017), but his offense is bad, and his defense is declining. This would mean admitting to a huge mistake with Bourn, but Gomez could make the Indians a relevant contender in the second half.
Mike Leake, Cincinnati Reds
9 of 10
Leake is the player whom the Reds are most likely to move. He can be a free agent after the season and is not a threat to make the All-Star Game in another team’s uniform the way Johnny Cueto and Aroldis Chapman are.
Leake has been scouted heavily in the last week or so, but he has a 4.85 FIP and is striking out only 5.2 hitters per nine innings. He could be an innings-eater, though, as he threw 214.1 last season and will want to do the same this year with free agency pending.
Leake’s perfect fit predictor is the New York Yankees. He will not cost much, and the Yankees do not want to part with the best pieces of their rebuilding farm system. With injury and performance risks in the team’s rotation, Leake could provide stability.
Aaron Harang, Philadelphia Phillies
10 of 10
Selling early on Harang would have been ideal, but with the amateur draft happening in early June, no team was ready to seriously engage in talks for the veteran right-hander.
Harang, who will be a free agent after the season, posted a 2.02 ERA in his first 11 starts this season and looked like a bargain trade piece for any team with rotation needs. But the ceiling has since come crashing in.
He has allowed 16 earned runs in his last three starts (17.2 innings) for an 8.15 ERA. His trade value is plummeting, but if he can reverse course immediately, he could still hold some limited interest.
Harang’s perfect fit predictor is the Red Sox. He could be included in a deal for Cole Hamels. Plus, it’s not like the Red Sox couldn’t use all the rotation help they can get.
All statistics via Baseball-Reference as of the start of play Friday unless otherwise noted.
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