Predicting Fantasy Football's Biggest Busts at Every Position in 2015

Earlier this week, I pointed out some of the biggest potential draft-day values in fantasy football in 2015.

Well, there's a flip side to that coin. A dark side of the moon. A topic that is spoken of by fantasy owners in hushed whispers, fearful that if they speak too loudly their fears will become reality.

The busts. The high-end picks who deliver low-end results, leaving a trail of shattered dreams, carnage and broken remotes in their wake.

What? Like you've never thrown one.

Well, it's time to shine a light on that dark corner of fantasy football and expose a handful of NFL stars for whom the writing is on the wall. The red flags are flying. Insert cliche here.

You can't say you weren't warned.

Average Draft Position Data Courtesy of Fantasy Pros.

QB: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

Jack Dempsey/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: QB3 (35th overall)

Two years ago, Peyton Manning of the Denver Broncos re-wrote the individual record books at the quarterback position. 5,477 passing yards. 55 touchdown passes. Manning won his fifth NFL MVP award and finished as the top fantasy quarterback in NFL.com default scoring by nearly 85 points.

Last year, Manning wasn’t exactly chopped liver. Sure, his production was down relative to the season before, but that’s like saying Kilimanjaro is down relative to Everest. They’re both still pretty danged tall. Manning threw for over 4,700 yards and 39 scores en route to a third-place fantasy finish.

However, toward the end of last season it was clear all was not well in Manning-land. Manning struggled badly over the last month of the season. Over the last four games of 2014, Manning threw only two touchdown passes against six picks. He ranked outside the top-20 quarterbacks in the fantasy playoffs.

There’s a new coaching staff in Denver in 2015, with Gary Kubiak bringing his run-heavy offense to the Mile High City. Kubiak’s offense also calls for the quarterback to take the majority of snaps under center, whereas Manning has spent most of 37 (approximately) years in the NFL operating from the shotgun.

However, as Kubiak told Andrew Mason of the team's website, he and Manning have been working together to combine the best parts of the old and the new:

"

Crossing the schemes, so to speak, was very, very easy. It was really more about verbiage than anything else. What I tried to do is the things that were very close, I tried to hang on to the verbiage that they had been talking here in the past, because I think that made it easier for the players.

"

But wait, it gets better! Thanks to the torn ACL suffered by left tackle Ryan Clady, a Denver offensive line that ranked first in the NFL in sacks allowed and pass protection per Football Outsiders is now looking at four new starters in 2015.

To recap—we have a quarterback who is a lot closer to 40 than 30 who showed signs of breaking down down the stretch last year playing behind an offensive line that’s gone from one of the team’s strengths to potentially its greatest weakness.

Sure, Manning is one of the very best to ever play the position. A mortal lock for Canton. But Father Time spares no one, and Manning's situation hasn't gotten any better of late.

All the more reason to wait before drafting a starting quarterback in fantasy drafts this year.

RB: DeMarco Murray, Philadelphia Eagles

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: RB8 (12th overall)

In 2014, DeMarco Murray rushed for a league-leading 1,845 yards. The fifth-year veteran also caught over 50 passes, chipping in over 400 more yards through the air. The 27-year-old was fantasy football's top running back in standard-scoring formats.

However, that was in Dallas. This year, Murray finds himself plying his trade with the Cowboys' NFC East rivals to the north in Philadelphia.

On many levels, it's an easy move to like. The Eagles ran the ball nearly as much as the Cowboys last year. The Eagles' offensive line ranked at the top of the NFL in run blocking in 2014 per Pro Football Focus. And Murray would, at first glance, appear a better fit for Kelly's up-tempo offense than LeSean McCoy was.

There's just one problem—and it's a doozy.

"The Curse of 370."

Simply put, if a running back carries the ball more than 370 times in a season, then historically speaking the next season has been something of a dumpster fire.

Tristan Cockroft of ESPN broke down the numbers a few years back—and the numbers aren't good:

"

Statistically speaking, players affected by the curse generally lose 25.9 percent of their 370-carry campaign's fantasy production the following year. In their second season following their 370-carry campaign, they lost 12.4 percent of their production from their follow-up year.

"

Murray carried the ball 392 times in the regular season alone last year.

Now, the Eagles know as well as anyone about the track record of backs after huge workloads. And offensive coordinator Pat Shurmur told Bob Grotz of the Delaware County Daily Times that Philly intends to involve backup back Ryan Mathews heavily in the offense this year:

"

They’re two really fine players. They’re two guys that have been starters in places that they’ve been and they’re going to come here and kind of share the role. I think that’s terrific that that’s their mindset. It shows us that you’ve got really, really fine players that understand it’s important to be a good teammate. Any time you can add good players to a unit you make yourself better because you need more than one to play the year.

"

Timeshare or curse. Pick your poison. Either way, these aren't the sorts of things you want to hear about a potential first-round running back.

WR: Odell Beckham, New York Giants

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: WR3 (9th overall)

OK, settle down.

Before anyone goes off to grab their pitchforks and torches and storm the castle, hear me out.

Obviously, Odell Beckham of the New York Giants had a phenomenal 2014 season en route to being named offensive rookie of the year.

Beckham reeled in 91 passes for 1,305 yards and 12 touchdowns. From Week 5 on, Beckham was fantasy's top wideout in leagues that award a point for catches.

Beckham told Jordan Ranaan of NJ.com that he's well aware that success will bring with it added defensive attention in 2015—and Beckham says to bring it on:

"

I definitely expect to receive a lot more attention. But it's just not going to work. You know you have Victor (Cruz) and Reuben (Randle), it's going to be hard to double or have a safety over the top with the stuff that we have going on. I don't think it's going to be beneficial for them.

"

Beckham's confidence may be admirable, but it's possible that the immense amount of hype surrounding Beckham may be just a touch over-the-top.

For starters, those complementary pieces Beckham mentioned may not be all that complimentary. Cruz is recovering from a torn patellar tendon, which is about as bad as football injuries get. And if the Giants don't have another option to consistently draw coverage away from Beckham, he's going to see more blankets than a Bed, Bath & Beyond.

Throw in a balky hamstring that's been nagging Beckham during OTAs and the fact that his per-game production from last year is just going to be very difficult to duplicate (Calvin Johnson has repeated double-digit scores all of once in his career) when you're up and he's on the board. While Beckham may have a fine season, there's also a very real chance for disappointment relative to his sky-high draft-day price tag.

TE: Jimmy Graham, Seattle Seahawks

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: TE2 (28th overall)

Jimmy Graham is about to become the poster child for just how important situation is in fantasy football.

And a cautionary tale for those who choose to ignore that.

In 2014, Graham was a top-two tight end in PPR formats despite battling injuries much of the season. The year before, the 28-year-old was fantasy's top player at his position in that scoring by a staggering margin.

In fact, Graham hasn't finished outside the top two in fantasy points since his rookie season in 2010.

However, all that fantasy damage was done in the Big Easy. And after being traded to Seattle, Graham no longer plays for a New Orleans Saints team that ranked second in the NFL in pass attempts last season.

Now Graham plays for a Seahawks squad that was dead last in the NFL in that regard.

Over those four big years catching passes from Drew Brees, Graham averaged almost 140 targets a season. Graham himself admitted to Bob Condotta of The Seattle Times that likely won't be the case in 2015:

"

I know I’m probably not going to get targeted 130 times. But that’s not my concern; I just want to win games. And I know there will be times — big moments in a game where I’m going to have to go out there and make a play. That’s what I’m focusing on — making sure that when the ball comes my way, I’m ready to take hold of every opportunity, and to not let any of these opportunities pass me by.

"

That team-first mentality should be music to the ears of fans of the Seahawks.

But for fantasy owners, it strikes a very sour note.

Bonus Bust: Adrian Peterson, RB, MInnesota Vikings

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

Average Draft Position: RB2 (2nd overall)

2014 was a year Adrian Peterson (and his fantasy owners) would just as soon forget.

And frankly, the waters around the 30-year-old haven't gotten any less choppy of late. The spring was filled with report after report regarding Peterson's unhappiness with how the Minnesota Vikings handled his season in exile. And his contract, which carries no additional guaranteed money after 2015.

Just recently Peterson took to Twitter to blast the purple and gold.

However, Peterson also finally reported to OTAs, and Minnesota offensive coordinator Norv Turner told ESPN Twin Cities that there's no rust on this hot-rod:

"I've been around a lot of these guys a lot of years and he's one of the top guys i've been around," Turner said. "He just comes out and looks like he hasn't missed a day."

There may not be any rust on said hot rod, but there certainly is a whole lot of mileage on his tires.

Like to use age to determine when a running back's effectiveness begins to wane? Well, according to ESPN's Kevin Seifert, Peterson is well on the wrong side of that fence:

"

(Of) all running backs who have played at least four NFL seasons since 2001, with a minimum average of 75 carries per season, we see their careers peak at age 27. Afterward, their rushing totals drop by 15 percent in one year, 25 percent in two and almost 40 by the time they are 30.

"

How about workload? Well, according to Joseph Juan of NumberFire, the edge of that drop-off occurs right around 1,800 career carries:

"

It appears as though players plummet in productivity and value soon after the season they cross the 1,800-carry mark. Only time will tell if the high-profile names on our list of candidates will fall to this seemingly inevitable fate this upcoming season, but if there's one thing we've learned, its that the fall off the cliff is a swift and fast one.

"

Peterson has 2,054 career totes, in case you were wondering.

Yes, "All Day" has made something of a habit of defying naysayers, including his 2,097-yard 2012 season after tearing his ACL.

But the fact remains that Peterson is human.

Sooner or later, he's going to start showing it.