Mike Freeman's 10-Point Stance: The Super-Duper Draft Edition

1. Desperation

If there is one theme for this year's draft, it is this: sheer, flagrant, utter desperation.

The teams at the top of the draft are tired of losing. They are tired of being punchlines. They are tired of fans and media mocking them. They are just...tired. And desperate. They are drawing a line. This far, no further.

Some of these teams have lost for so long now that it is all they know. They will do anything to change that. Teams at the top of the draft are always desperate, but this year is different. Team executives on some of these teams, as well as team officials picking from lower spots in the first round, describe franchises so quarterback-thirsty they are willing to do almost anything to get one.

A quarterback is a way out of misery.

"This is why if you're the Buccaneers, you take a chance on a guy [Jameis Winston] who has unprecedented character issues for a [top] overall pick," said one general manager, whose team picks in the bottom-third of the first round.

It is also why so many teams are jockeying for Marcus Mariota, despite serious questions about how his game will translate to the pros.

Ryan Kang/Associated Press

These five teams (four at the top of the draft) face that desperation perhaps more than any other in the draft this year: Tampa Bay, Cleveland, Jacksonville, Oakland and Washington. That is the Justice League of losing.

They all have something else in common: For the past few years, and in many cases much longer, their quarterbacks have been bad, hurt, inexperienced or all three.

Their franchises need this draft to work. In some ways, for many of the five, this is one of the most important drafts in the recent history of their teams.

Here's a look at the stakes for these five:

Oakland: They made two excellent draft picks last season in Khalil Mack and Derek Carr. Before that, lots of misses. Lots and lots and lots of misses in the first round. First-rounders Rolando McClain, Darrius Heyward-Bey, Michael Huff, Fabian Washington, Robert Gallery and, of course, the notorious JaMarcus Russell. Huff, Washington, Gallery and Russell aren't even in the NFL anymore. This draft is important for the Raiders. They need to get further away from the busts and build on their better recent track record.

Tampa Bay: In the history of their franchise, the Buccaneers haven't given a second contract to any quarterback they've drafted. That is a level of putridity that has to be unprecedented. (More on that statistic below.) They simply cannot continue this. They cannot screw up this pick.

Jacksonville: The team's first-round picks since 2010: Tyson Alualu, Blaine Gabbert, Justin Blackmon, Luke Joeckel and Blake Bortles. Gabbert and Blackmon are massive anchors around the neck of the franchise. This team—the fans especially—needs hope. It also needs to win so people go for a swim. 

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Washington: The Robert Griffin III selection, and the picks the team used to get him, hasn't paid off. In the recent past, the team has treated the draft impulsively. Like a kid eating all of his Halloween candy in one sitting. The franchise has a new draft guru, so it's likely it will draft better this year and beyond. But like other teams' fans, Washington's need something to energize them.

Browns: I feel horrible for Browns fans. I really do. What the Browns need is the draft equivalent of freebasing a unicorn. No team is more desperate for success than the Browns.

All of these franchises are looking for a change of luck. From misery to…anything else.

2. Jets still in the Mariota hunt

Oh, hell yes, they are. Team officials say the worst-kept secret in the league is that New York will try hard to move up to get Mariota. My guess is that they won't be able to offer the Titans enough to move up. I'm not sure any team has enough to make the switch with Tennessee, except San Diego because of Philip Rivers. But the Jets will certainly try. 

3. Gurley not top 10

Talk is increasing that Todd Gurley, the excellent runner from Georgia, will go in the top 10. That is one of the more-discussed scenarios now in the media. Problem is, I can't find a scout who actually thinks that will happen. Most scouts I've spoken to have been far harsher on Gurley.

"More teams are worried about Gurley's knee than publicly known," one scout told me. The scout believes he won't go top 10. He predicted Detroit will take him at 23.

That despite this awesome video Gurley posted on Instagram:

4. Saints control the draft

They have two first-round picks, thanks to the Jimmy Graham trade, and five picks in the top 78. The reason I say they control the draft is not solely based on the large number of picks they own early in the draft. I say that because the Saints know how to use those picks. They're not like some teams that get large numbers of picks and then squander them all (looking at you, Cleveland). The Saints are aggressive and smart with their draft choices. In short, they know what they're doing.

Also would not shock me to see the Saints be major players in moving up in the first round. Maybe to even get a quarterback.

5. History says either Winston or Mariota will be a bust

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Since the common draft first began in 1967, only five times have quarterbacks been drafted first and second overall. If Winston and Mariota do go first and second, respectively, history says one will almost certainly be a bust.

In 1971, it was Jim Plunkett and Archie Manning.

In 1993, it was Drew Bledsoe and Rick Mirer.

In 1998, it was Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf.

In 1999, it was Tim Couch and Donovan McNabb.

In 2012, it was Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin III.

Plunkett was outstanding, and Archie played on horrible Saints teams but was still good. Bledsoe was solid and Mirer a bust. Peyton will go into the Hall of Fame, and Leaf is an uber-bust. Couch was awful and McNabb a borderline Hall of Famer. Luck is outstanding, and RGIII might be a bust.

So there's a pattern here (mostly). Only in one case were both quarterbacks good. We don't know about RGIII yet, but it's not looking good.

The reason for this is pretty simple. It's hard to have three or four quarterbacks excel in an entire draft, let alone have two from one round prosper. Plus, usually, the two quarterbacks are going to bad teams. That makes things even tougher.

So chances are we will see either Winston or Mariota totally bust out of the league.

6. Roll Tide

From the NFL:

"

If Alabama has a player selected in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, the Crimson Tide will tie Pittsburgh (1983-1989), Ohio State (1991-1997) and Florida (1997-2003) for the third-longest consecutive streak with at least one player drafted in the first round since the advent of the common draft in 1967. Alabama has a current streak of six consecutive drafts with at least one first round pick.

"

Impressive, right? But this is even crazier:

"

Miami (1995-2008) owns the longest such streak with at least one first-round pick in 14 consecutive drafts.

"

I don't think that streak will ever be broken.

7. More on that incredible Buccaneers statistic

The Buccaneers have never given a second contract to a quarterback they drafted. Not one. That means of 20 quarterbacks in 39 drafts, not one got a second contract.

As Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio points out:

"

That list includes, working backward, Mike Glennon, Josh Freeman, Josh Johnson, Bruce Gradkowski, Chris Simms, Joe Hamilton, Shaun King, Trent Dilfer, Craig Erickson, Mike Pawlawski, Pat O'Hara, Vinny Testaverde, Mike Shula, Blair Kiel, Steve Young, Mike Ford, Chuck Fusina, Doug Williams, Randy Hedberg, and Parnell Dickinson.

"

Wow. Just wow. 

8. Michael Irvin wrong on Mariota and Winston

I love Michael Irvin. I covered him throughout his career, and he is probably the best combination of talent and toughness I ever saw at the position.

Irvin was also quite the character. That's a nice way of putting it. To his credit, Irvin has cleaned up his act, to the point where he apparently feels comfortable chastising players like Mariota and Winston for not coming to the draft in Chicago.

"I understand you want to be with your family, Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota, but you're a quarterback. Nobody profits more from this league than quarterbacks and I do have an issue with them not being there," Irvin told For the Win's Lindsay Jones. "This is a family. You're coming into something that is much bigger than you. Don't big-time it, and that's what I feel is being done."

No, that's not what's being done. At all. In any way.

The true reason Winston and Mariota aren't going to the draft is The Brady Quinn Effect. Or The Aaron Rodgers Effect. Or The Thurman Thomas Effect. A camera in their face as they free-fall.

Odds are slim that happens in the case of Winston and Mariota, but the same has been believed of many others before them. You just never know.

So if Winston and Mariota don't want their potential misery to be our entertainment, good for them.

9. Another draft cautionary tale

I don't know if Colt Lyerla has changed. Or if he deserves another NFL shot. What I do know is that Lyerla is a cautionary tale.

Lyerla tweeted this past week a very believable, very earnest video, saying he's changed.

The reaction from the NFL people who have seen the video is mixed. One scout told me that Lyerla "seems genuinely contrite." A team personnel executive on a different team said that Lyerla "is totally full of s--t." My guess is that's how people will react across the board. Some will believe him, many will not.

Lyerla is one of those players the NFL uses as an example of how quickly a player can go from being one of the best prospects to out of the league and looking in. There are many such examples, unfortunately, but he remains one of the best because he was so good.

My gut tells me some team will take a shot on Lyerla because of that talent. It will certainly be his last chance to prove that he's changed.

10. The NFL and Mayweather

David Becker/Getty Images

One non-draft-related note. I wanted to ask some team personnel guys, who work in a league that has for decades mishandled domestic violence issues (but is now getting better at handling them), if they would try to watch the Mayweather fight. (Despite the draft obligations.) The answers I got back were somewhat surprising.

Three said they would refuse to pay to watch Mayweather fight because of his atrocious, horrid and inexcusable violence against women. Said one personnel man: "Not gonna watch the woman beater, no."

A fourth said he would. "We all make mistakes," he said.

So, there's that.

When I mentioned on Twitter that I'd be boycotting the fight, the response I got was: You cover the NFL which has been full of domestic abusers. This is true. I cover the sport. I don't put money in the sport's pocket. I guess an argument could be made that by covering the sport, I'm drumming up interest in it, thus putting money in the league's pocket, but that's a stretch as big as the universe.

Also, while it certainly wasn't this way in the past, the NFL now clearly gets it, and punishes domestic abusers. Boxing has ignored, totally and completely, what Mayweather has done. Mayweather's sport hasn't punished him.

Mike Freeman covers the NFL for Bleacher Report.