Should Melvin Gordon Be the 1st Running Back off the Board?
Over the past two years 64 players were first-round picks in the NFL draft. That’s just routine math, but there wasn't anything normal about this: None of them played running back.
For only the second time since 1967 a running back didn’t come off the board until the second round. In 2014 Bishop Sankey was the first selected at the position when the Tennessee Titans called his name with their 54th overall pick. It was the longest wait in draft history for the first running back.
The brakes will almost certainly be applied to that two-year trend in 2015, with Georgia’s Todd Gurley and Wisconsin’s Melvin Gordon leading the U-turn.
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In today’s NFL even receiving first-round consideration as a running back feels like a medal-worthy accomplishment. It’s a position where the word “aging” begins to be attached to premier producers at the ripe age of 27 (see: DeMarco Murray during free agency), and physical-abuse concerns seem to rise fast (see: DeMarco Murray during free agency after 497 touches in 2014).
A running back needs to nearly be a generational talent now to justify a first-round pick, which shows the quality of this draft class if both Gordon and Gurley hear their names on April 30. That brings us to another nail-gnawing decision: Which name should be called first?
It feels like a consensus is building for Gurley, who brings a unique combination of hammering power and speed. At this point the only hurdle between the 6'1", 222-pound running back and a high first-round perch could be the results of a combine medical recheck on his injured knee.
Gurley tore his ACL during a game against Auburn in November 2014, and concerns about missing a chunk of his first NFL season need to be quieted.
So on one side of the Great Running Back Draft Battle of 2015 we have a powerful brute, though a gimping and injured one. On the other? A running back who nearly made history in 2014 while finishing second in the Heisman voting.
Gordon vs. Gurley isn’t over yet.
| Barry Sanders | 1988 | 2,628 |
| Melvin Gordon | 2014 | 2,587 |
| Kevin Smith | 2007 | 2,567 |
| Marcus Allen | 1981 | 2,427 |
| Troy Davis | 1996 | 2,185 |
Gordon finished only 41 yards behind Barry Sanders, posting the second-best single-season rushing yards total in college football history. That earned him the Doak Walker Award as the nation’s top running back.
He averaged 7.6 yards per carry over his final two seasons at Wisconsin and set a school record with 100-plus yards in 12 games during the 2014 season.
That’s only where the case for Team Gordon begins in the draft showdown against Gurley. Flip on the tape, and you see a runner who’s part track star, part space-finder and full of explosiveness.
During a win over Nebraska the 22-year-old ran for 408 yards, briefly setting a single-game college record that Oklahoma’s Samaje Perine later broke. He collected those yards with speed because that’s who Gordon is as a running back: His natural habitat is outside the numbers.
But he did his galloping through vision and patience too. Those are critical assets for a young running back and skills that have to come naturally.
Both were on display during a 41-yard gain in the first quarter. A stretch run was intricately drawn and well-executed, giving Wisconsin favorable numbers to the left side. But it still needed time to develop.
A fullback and pulling guard teamed up to first create a hole and then seal it. Plenty of unfriendly bodies were still swirling, however. Gordon had to wait just a beat or two and duck behind his lead blocker. On this play it was tight end Kyle Penniston, who had motioned into the backfield.
Success meant hitting this tiny crease…
... And bouncing through it at the right angle with enough speed to then accelerate into the second level.
Done.
That’s what it looks like when Gordon sees an opportunity for a home run swing and then smacks a moonshot out of the ballpark, rearranging a windshield. Gordon wasn’t touched until he had already gained 20 yards.
He scored four times in that game while posting a per-carry average that would only seem real if it was accomplished with a joystick and button mashing. He averaged 16.3 yards per carry against Nebraska, which was remarkably his second-best per-carry average in 2014.
| Bowling Green State (Week 3) | 253 | 19.5 |
| Nebraska (Week 10) | 408 | 16.3 |
| Northwestern (Week 5) | 259 | 9.6 |
| Louisiana State (Week 1) | 140 | 8.8 |
| Purdue (Week 9) | 205 | 8.2 |
Gordon’s burst through the hole is a signature element of his running style. His 10-yard split at the scouting combine was 1.60 seconds, and in 2013 he was the only FBS player with three 70-plus-yard runs.
An ability to identify a small crease and then turn it into a lengthy gain has led to wide eyes watching Gordon since high school. One of those sets of eyes belonged to John Settle, who’s both the current and former Badgers running backs coach (he left after the 2010 season and just returned for the 2015 season).
When Settle watched the high school version of Gordon—when he was both a football and track star—he saw that acceleration but also a young man with room to bulk up and become a powerful runner. Speed wasn’t sacrificed as Gordon filled out to his current measurements of 6’1” and 215 pounds.
“The one thing that I was surprised to see is that as he developed and got a little heavier, he didn’t lose any of his athletic ability, or any of the ability to make people miss,” Settle told Bleacher Report.
“He may have even gotten better in those areas.”
It’s easy to agree with that assessment. Although speed is Gordon’s primary weapon of choice and he may not quite match Gurley’s power, there’s still plenty of tackle-breaking drive in his lower body.
Sure, many of those whiffs came through razzle and/or dazzle, with Gordon’s tap-dancing elusiveness in the open field separating defenders from their underpants. His power, however, comes from being at full stride and still churning his legs relentlessly.
A prime example came in Week 12 of the 2014 season during a win over the Minnesota Golden Gophers when Gordon ran for 151 yards on 29 carries (5.2 per carry). Midway through the first quarter a run up the gut looked to be destined for a moderate gain at best.
Gordon was immediately swarmed by bodies, and two unblocked defenders were waiting four yards downfield to wrap him up.
Gordon cut once and raced ahead with one quick step. As expected, he was greeted by one of those defenders.
First he braced for contact by lowering his pad level, and then he absorbed it. Gordon had leverage, and combined with his momentum that allowed his forward thrust to continue.
Suddenly he was shedding the first tackle attempt…
... And then spinning off a second try. He kept going for a 23-yard run.
Gordon is fully aware that his name isn’t Todd Gurley. He doesn’t quite have Gurley’s size and knows that too. But a strict divide between speed and power doesn’t strike Gordon as an especially fair way to categorize the two running backs.
That’s what he told Michael Gehlken of the San Diego Union-Tribune:
"I'm a playmaker. I can run the ball up the middle. I can run it outside. I can run the ball from the gun. I can do it all. I can catch the ball and make some plays; I've done it. ... I think guys just automatically assume because I'm not 230 and I'm not straight bulldozing guys over that I'm not a strong runner, which is false. ... I'm a special back, and I know I am.
"
Unfortunately for Gordon, the NFL is a league that slides prospects into neatly labeled boxes or at least attempts to each spring. Gurley’s thundering size has often vaulted him up draft projections, with D. Orlando Ledbetter of The Atlanta Journal-Constitution slotting him in at No. 8 to the Atlanta Falcons.
Other possibilities for the first running back off the board are the Minnesota Vikings (No. 11) if they finally decide to end their Wild West standoff with running back Adrian Peterson and the San Diego Chargers (No. 17) as they search for a Ryan Mathews replacement.
Beyond that, the Arizona Cardinals (No. 24) have a burning running back itch after finishing 2014 with a league-low 3.3 yards per carry. Sports Illustrated’s Peter King wrote that even if he’s not the first back selected, Gordon won’t make it past the Baltimore Ravens (No. 26).
There may indeed be a heavier lean toward Gurley as the top running back. But where a team lands on the Gordon-Gurley divide rests with exactly what it's looking for or, maybe more importantly, what it needs at running back.
A team with an offensive line built to drive forward and propel a power-running attack should favor Gurley, who has the larger frame and better hands as a receiver (though Gordon is improving in that area). Conversely, an offense that craves those grand-slam swings and the talent to do a lot with little room should think long and hard about Gordon.
Gordon’s blend of vision with abrupt cutting to find open space could easily make him stand out next to Gurley, who’s supremely talented but has already suffered a significant injury before his first NFL snap.
Those injury concerns are weighing heavily, leading to some Gurley-related nerves from several teams.
“He is a rare inside/outside runner with enviable wheels, yet he also displays the toughness and grit needed to handle a heavy workload,” wrote NFL Network draft analyst and former scout Bucky Brooks in his Gordon evaluation. Then he made a player comparison that prompts an instinctive eyebrow raise: Jamaal Charles.
If Gordon is even remotely close to that high ceiling, passing on him will become a regrettable decision...fast.
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