Why Can't Wes Welker Find Work?

A mere two years ago, Wes Welker was coming off a 118-catch, 1,354-yard Pro Bowl season with the New England Patriots. He's led the NFL in receptions on three separate occasions, and he's the only receiver in NFL history with five 110-catch seasons (nobody else has done it more than twice). 

Receiver	Total
Wes Welker	5
Antonio Brown	2
Cris Carter*	2
Marvin Harrison	2
Andre Johnson	2
Jerry Rice*	2
Jimmy Smith	2

But nobody seems to want Welker on their football team. He's received little to no interest on the free-agent market, at least based on a lack of media reports regarding his status as an unrestricted free agent. 

He was loosely linked to the Green Bay Packers a few weeks ago, per NFL Media's Ian Rapoport (via Bleacher Report's Zach Kruse) but Pro Football Talk's Michael David Smith reported Tuesday that "there’s been no talk at all about any team trying to sign him." Meanwhile, Troy Renck of The Denver Post doesn't think the Denver Broncos will be bringing him back. 

Sure, Welker is 33 going on 34 in May, and that's about the age receivers typically begin to disappear. However, that alone might not explain why the two-time first-team All-Pro remains unemployed as free agency enters its fourth week and the calendar flips to April. 

Already declining

It's one thing to anticipate the decline of a 34-year-old wide receiver, but in Welker's case, there is already evidence of him sliding. His reception and yardage numbers have sunk in three consecutive seasons, hitting a nine-year low with only 49 catches and 464 yards in 2014 despite him having been active in all but two games. 

The only Hall of Fame receiver ever to drop under the 1,000-yard mark during his age-33 season and recover was Art Monk, who experienced a blip-type down year in 1990. But Welker has been held to fewer than 1,000 yards two years in a row, so he likely won't be an exception to the rule. 

Receiver	Age 33	Age 34	Age 35
John Stallworth	937	466	521
Steve Largent	912	645	403
Andre Reed	880	795	536
Raymond Berry	786	167	Retired
Art Monk	770	1049	644
Charley Taylor	738	744	158
Fred Biletnikoff	551	446	285
Wes Welker	464	?	?
Tommy McDonald	436	113	Retired
Dante Lavelli	344	Retired	Retired
Bobby Mitchell	130	Retired	Retired
Bob Hayes	119	Retired	Retired

Accordingly, it would make very little sense to commit to a guy like Welker right now. Wide receivers 34 or older have only posted 37 1,000-yard seasons in NFL history, and 20 of those seasons were from 34-year-old wideouts. Only 12 of those seasons were from 35-year-olds, so even if Welker were to redeem himself a bit in 2015—extremely unlikely as is—his odds of replicating that in 2016 would be even weaker. 

NFL front offices know that buy low/sell high applies to the football world, which is why nobody wants to touch a plummeting stock like Welker with a 10-foot pole. 

Buyer's market

Welker isn't the only accomplished receiver collecting dust on free-agent shelves. Joining him are Michael Crabtree, who is 27 and has a 1,000-yard season on his resume, as well as 27-year-old Hakeem Nicks, who has a pair of 1,000-yard seasons under his belt, and 31-year-old former Pro Bowler Greg Jennings. 

The fact that those guys are lingering beyond the second wave of free agency indicates that there's a collective belief they're somewhat interchangeable and can be had at a bargain price at a later time. 

But why did they all become available together in the first place? That could have a lot to do with the proliferation of quality wide receiver prospects entering the league. 

Last year's NFL draft was considered to be one of the deepest ever at the receiver position, and that group lived up to the hype with three 1,000-yard seasons, five 800-yard seasons and 12 500-yard seasons. 

Class	800-YD seasons	1000-YD seasons
2014	5	3
1996	4	1
1985	4	0
1986	3	2
2011	3	1
2004	3	1
1995	3	1
2012	3	0

It's not just about elite guys like Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Kelvin Benjamin and Sammy Watkins, but teams like the Philadelphia Eagles, Miami Dolphins, New Orleans Saints, Jacksonville Jaguars and Pittsburgh Steelers have made it clear they're more confident in 2014 rookies Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry, Brandin Cooks, Allen Robinson and Martavis Bryant than old men on the open market. 

That applies to Welker's situation in Denver, because it appears the Broncos feel they're better off with 2014 second-round pick Cody Latimer, despite the fact the Indiana product had just two catches as a rookie. 

"He showed a lot of flashes from me watching him in practice," said head coach Gary Kubiak, according to Ben Swanson of the team's official website. "A lot of times being a rookie can be overwhelming. I think as the year went on he just showed that he’s got a lot of skill. I think it’s time for him to make a big jump, not just a little jump."

And as Paul Domowitch of the of the Philadelphia Daily News notes, this year's receiver class might be just as stacked:

"

Wide receiver once again is one of the deepest positions in the draft. NFL scouts and draft analysts think as many as five wideouts could go in the first round, which would equal last year's total. Somewhere from 12 to 15 could be selected in the first three rounds.

"

"You had 15 rookie [wide receivers] that were impactful [last season]," ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper told Domowitch, "and you're going to have a load more this year. It's a very, very strong, very, very deep position."

The concussion factor

There are also health concerns at play here, because Welker suffered three concussions in a 10-month period between the fall of 2013 and the summer of 2014. He was suspended the first two games last season for use of amphetamines, but he might have missed that period anyway as he recovered from his most recent head injury. 

He played the rest of the year from that point forward, but as the league continues to add safeguards and precautions in order to keep concussed players off the field, potential suitors are aware of the fact they could be a seemingly innocuous hit away from seeing their investment go down the drain. 

That's the strict business perspective on the risk involved with bringing in a guy with a reputation for suffering concussions, but the reality is another head injury could end Welker's career. 

With that in mind, it's fair to wonder if Welker might be better off walking away right now. 

Actually, he might not have a choice. 

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012.

Follow @Brad_Gagnon