Predictions for MLB's Top 10 Rookies in 2015
There's nothing wrong with looking forward to watching the usual suspects in an upcoming baseball season. Indeed, why would there be anything wrong with champing at the bit for some Mike Trout, Clayton Kershaw or Andrew McCutchen?
But you know what else is fun? Looking forward to watching the kids in action. Every season has its promising rookies, and this is a perfect time of year to discuss how they might live up to their promise.
Let's do that.
Now, there are admittedly dozens of rookies we could focus on. But I'm only going to make predictions for a lucky 10, who I hand-picked in a search that zeroed in on top prospects who are (a) generating buzz and (b) figure to play significant roles in 2015.
We're going to proceed in order of how they're ranked by MLB.com. Step into the box whenever you're ready.
Honorable Mentions
1 of 11
Before we get going with the principles, here are a few names that didn't make the cut but are at least worthy of a shoutout.
Christian Bethancourt, C, Atlanta Braves
Bethancourt is projected to be Atlanta's primary catcher in 2015, and his reputation as an elite defensive presence should put him on your radar. But because his defense may not come with good receiving and he doesn't figure to hit much, it's a stretch to say he's at all hyped.
Archie Bradley, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks
Bradley was arguably the top pitching prospect in baseball this time last year, and odds are he's going to see some major league action in 2015. But a rough, injury-marred 2014 has damaged his stock, and it could be some time before he puts it in the past.
Maikel Franco, 3B, Philadelphia Phillies
Franco should see some time at third base with the Phillies this year, and his reputation as a plus power hitter make him worth watching. It's too bad he was humbled by Triple-A last year, hitting just .257/.299/.428. It's no wonder Ruben Amaro Jr. wants him to get more seasoning.
Jung Ho Kang, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
The word "prospect" doesn't really fit on Kang, as he's a 27-year-old veteran of nine seasons in the Korean Baseball Organization. But he will be a rookie in 2015, and his power could be a huge addition to the middle of Pittsburgh's infield. Honestly, the main reason he's not included here is because I'll be talking about him more specifically later this week.
Carlos Rodon, LHP, Chicago White Sox
Rodon, the No. 3 overall pick in the 2014 draft, might be the best left-handed prospect in baseball. But in speaking to Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune, White Sox skipper Robin Ventura didn't sound in a hurry to promote Rodon. And even if he is promoted this year, it could only be as a setup man for David Robertson. As such, his 2015 outlook may not be as interesting as the buzz surrounding his name.
Steven Souza, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
2 of 11
MLB.com: Not Ranked
Though Steven Souza isn't universally regarded as a top prospect, you'd never know it from listening to the buzz. Experts have been singing the 25-year-old's praises ever since the Rays, who have plenty of playing time available in both left and right field, acquired him in the Wil Myers trade.
And it's not just the experts. The projection systems like Souza as well. Especially Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA system, which has him putting up a .798 OPS, 23 homers and 24 steals in 2015.
In fairness, numbers like those aren't too far out of line with Souza's recent minor league track record. The righty swinger did better than a .900 OPS in 2012 and 2013 and then hit a staggering .345/.427/.577 with 18 homers and 28 steals last year, mainly at the Triple-A level.
Some of the things in Souza's scouting reports support the notion that he's a breakout offensive performer waiting to happen. He is a big guy at 6'4" and 225 pounds, and Baseball Prospectus sees above-average bat speed and an ability to drive the ball to all fields. Also, he is indeed quick for a guy his size.
What's less awesome is that, according to FanGraphs' Kiley McDaniel, scouts see a swing-and-miss hitter when they look at Souza. And if ESPN.com's Keith Law is right about Souza's power being more doubles power than home run power, expectations in that category should probably be tempered.
As such, an .800-OPS and 20/20 projection is probably a bit much for Souza. His offensive skill set should lead to good production, but whiffs and doubles power will limit it. Expect something more like an OPS in the mid-.700s and around 15 homers and 15 steals.
Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Toronto Blue Jays
3 of 11
MLB.com: No. 44
Though he didn't exactly dominate at Double-A or Triple-A in 2014, Aaron Sanchez ended up getting called up for a cup of coffee in the big leagues at the end of 2014 anyway.
That's when he started dominating, pitching to a 1.09 ERA in 24 appearances. After a breakthrough like that, it's no wonder the 22-year-old right-hander seems all but guaranteed a role on the 2015 Blue Jays.
What kind of role he's best suited for, however, is a good question.
Sanchez undeniably has power stuff. FanGraphs put his average fastball last year at 97.1 miles per hour, and Brooks Baseball can vouch that it was an excellent ground-ball pitch. Also, his curveball is generally considered to be a plus out pitch. But control has been a problem (5.1 walks per nine innings in the minors last year) for him, which Keith Law chalks up to his stride having gotten shorter.
Typically, a guy with power stuff but iffy command is better suited for relieving than starting. And though the Blue Jays are using Sanchez as a starter this spring, they might actually be leaning the other way. According to Barry Davis of Sportsnet.ca, Toronto skipper John Gibbons said last month that Sanchez would actually be the team's closer if he's put in the bullpen.
I'll guess that's where Sanchez ends up. If so, his high-90s heat, hammer curveball and ability to get ground balls should help him overcome his control issues, resulting in a 30-save, 2.50-ish ERA season.
.png?w=256)
Dalton Pompey, CF, Toronto Blue Jays
4 of 11
MLB.com: No. 43
The Blue Jays didn't get much of a look at Dalton Pompey in 2014, as he only played in 17 major league games. So it makes sense that they haven't handed him their starting center field gig on a silver platter.
But it sure does look like they want him to handle the bulk of the playing time there in 2015. The Blue Jays created space for Pompey by moving on from Colby Rasmus. And even if he platoons with Kevin Pillar, Pompey's assignments against right-handed pitching would mean more playing time.
Pompey is coming off a breakout season that says he's capable of handling himself, as he hit .317/.392/.469 with 43 stolen bases across three minor league levels last year. Not bad for a guy who only recently turned 22, and it was no accident.
The word from Keith Law and MLB.com is that Pompey has an advanced approach that's geared toward contact, two talents that bode well in these times of huge strikeout totals. He also has legit 40-steal speed, which he puts to good use in center field as well.
What Pompey will have to get around is that he doesn't have much power, and pitchers are surely going to exploit the weakness that Baseball Prospectus sees with good velocity above the belt.
As such, Pompey may only be capable of an OBP in the low .300s, with little power to go with it. But that shouldn't stop him from stealing 25-30 bases. Add in good defense, and you have a decent, if not quite spectacular, rookie season.
Alex Meyer, RHP, Minnesota Twins
5 of 11
MLB.com: No. 29
While center fielder Byron Buxton and third baseman Miguel Sano are very much deserving of their hype, the Twins have another elite prospect who should arrive well before either of them.
That would be this guy, Alex Meyer. After pitching to a 3.52 ERA in 27 starts at Triple-A in 2014, he has little left to prove in the minors. And with Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer Press reporting that the Twins don't like the idea of using him as a reliever, the club's rotation should be in his sights.
That said, the 25-year-old Meyer probably won't be there on Opening Day. Given Minnesota's current situation, a good guess is that he won't be deemed ready until after the passing of the Super Two cutoff, a la Gregory Polanco last year.
Once Meyer arrives, fans are going to see a giant of a man with power stuff. The 6'9" righty throws a sinking fastball that sits in the upper 90s, generating both ground balls and whiffs. His slider gives him another swing-and-miss pitch, and MLB.com says his changeup is making progress.
The catch? That Meyer has the kind of command struggles that tend to dog pitchers his size. Since the Twins can't exactly make him shorter, that's something that could need time to correct.
On the bright side, Meyer's ability to generate ground balls and whiffs should allow him to fit into Francisco Liriano's mold. Though the walks are likely to be there, he should be able to get enough ground balls and strikeouts to author an ERA in the 3.50-4.00 neighborhood in 15-18 starts.
Andrew Heaney, LHP, Los Angeles Angels
6 of 11
MLB.com: No. 25
Because the Angels had to surrender Howie Kendrick's reliable bat and glove to get him, there's a bit of pressure on Andrew Heaney to step it up in 2015. And that's without even getting into how their rotation is less than sturdy these days.
It might seem like too much for a guy who debuted to the tune of a 5.83 ERA in seven appearances last year, but the Angels are confident. Skipper Mike Scioscia was blunt in speaking to Gary Klein of the Los Angeles Times, saying, "We think he's ready for the challenge of the major leagues."
There's certainly support for the idea. The 23-year-old lefty owns a 2.77 ERA in three minor league seasons, and virtually every scouting report you read will agree that his ability to throw strikes, plus slider and plus changeup make him a safe bet for success.
But there are concerns. Baseball Prospectus noted that Heaney's velocity can come and go, and that he's "more of a strike-thrower than [a] spotter."
His zone profile at Brooks Baseball can vouch that there's some truth to that, as he pitched down the middle a lot with his heat last year. Given that he only sat around 90 miles per hour, it's no wonder all six of the home runs he gave up in 29.1 innings came on his sinker.
If Heaney doesn't spot that pitch better, major league hitters will continue to crush it and render his plus slider and changeup virtually useless. So, although the Angels are betting big on him, I wouldn't expect any better than a 4.00-4.50 ERA in 25 or so starts in 2015.
Jorge Soler, RF, Chicago Cubs
7 of 11
MLB.com: No. 22
Jorge Soler made an all-timer of a first impression last fall. He burst onto the scene with 10 hits, three of which left the park, in 19 at-bats in his first five games. That put the cap on a season that saw him post an OPS over 1.000 with 20 home runs in only 86 games across four levels.
The Cubs are giving Soler the opportunity to build on his big debut. He's penciled in as their starting right fielder, and he'll likely be in the middle of Joe Maddon's lineups to boot.
But the 23-year-old Soler isn't perfect. I outlined in a recent article how his aggressive approach in the majors last year highlighted his weakness against good breaking stuff. Also, he really only did damage on the inner two-thirds of the plate and beyond. These are two exploitable weaknesses.
On the bright side, Soler's struggles last year were a bit out of character. He's generally viewed as having good pitch recognition and a patient approach to go with his explosive raw power and plus bat speed. What he did in the minors backs that up, as he drew a lot of walks without racking up strikeouts last year.
Both PECOTA and the Steamer projections at FanGraphs anticipate that Soler will flirt with 25 home runs while posting an OPS in the high .700s. If he can tone down last year's aggressive approach, it wouldn't be shocking to see him make a run at 30 homers and an .800-ish OPS.
Daniel Norris, LHP, Toronto Blue Jays
8 of 11
MLB.com: No. 17
Daniel Norris might best be known these days at that guy with the van, but he's also a heck of a pitching prospect. Now more than ever, in fact, as he's coming off a 2.53 ERA across three minor levels in 2014.
That performance earned Norris a crack at the fifth spot in Toronto's starting rotation. And though Aaron Sanchez and Marco Estrada are worthy competition, it's not a stretch to view Norris as the favorite.
Norris has one of the deeper repertoires you're going to find among the league's pitching prospects, as Keith Law says he can flash four "above average or better" pitches on any given night. The best of the bunch are a fastball that he can crank into the mid-90s and a plus slider and changeup.
Norris put those pitches to work in racking up an impressive 11.8 strikeouts per nine innings in the minors last year. That highlights his immense strikeout potential, and his command has improved as he's ironed out his mechanics.
In so many words, the 21-year-old lefty doesn't offer much to worry about. He doesn't have Sanchez's command questions or Estrada's history with home runs. He thus could be a few more good spring starts away from breaking camp in Toronto's rotation.
With Sanchez seemingly ticketed for Toronto's bullpen, I'll go ahead and put Norris in Toronto's rotation. And though he could run into some trouble in the AL East's hitter-friendly starts, he has the goods to author an ERA in the mid-3.00s over 25-30 starts.
Joc Pederson, CF, Los Angeles Dodgers
9 of 11
MLB.com: No. 13
Though Joc Pederson hasn't officially been handed the Dodgers center field gig, he's in pretty much the same boat as Pompey in Toronto. Based on appearances, the job is his to lose.
It looks like the right call based on what Pederson did in the minors last year. In 121 games with Triple-A Albuquerque, the 22-year-old hit .303/.435/.582 with 33 homers and 30 stolen bases. As you'd expect, numbers like those do indeed reflect how he's a true power/speed threat.
To an extent, anyway. Pederson's 2014 numbers were very much inflated by Albuquerque's hitter-friendly home ballpark. They also overshadowed a sizable 26.9 strikeout rate that speaks to an inability to adjust, which Keith Law and Baseball Prospectus have both highlighted.
If he doesn't correct that, pitchers are going to make life tough for him at the major league level. Add in how his counting stats were inflated by his home ballpark last year, and a 30/30 rookie season seems highly unlikely.
Fortunately, Pederson should see a bunch of time in the majors no matter what, as the Dodgers don't have a better option in center field. And though 30/30 likely isn't happening, Pederson's ability to barrel balls up and work counts (18.1 percent walk rate in the minors last year) should keep his offensive production afloat.
An OPS in the mid-.700s with homer and stolen base totals in the 15-20 range sounds fair. Add in solid center field defense, and you get a quality rookie season.
Noah Syndergaard, RHP, New York Mets
10 of 11
MLB.com: No. 10
In Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Zack Wheeler, the Mets already have a trio of young power pitchers in their rotation. Noah Syndergaard, whom they appropriately call "Thor," should make it four before long.
It's true that the 22-year-old right-hander only had a 4.60 ERA in 26 Triple-A starts last year. But that was in the notoriously hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League, and he did it while striking out nearly 10 batters per nine innings with a decent 2.9 BB/9 rate. He's very close to being ready, and the weak back end of the Mets rotation should ensure he arrives sooner rather than later.
What you can expect to see when Syndergaard finally arrives is a mid-to-high-90s fastball with good arm-side run, which will make it hell on right-handed batters. He also has a curveball that MLB.com says can have different looks and a changeup that's now above average.
Guys with stuff like that don't tend to get knocked around...but Syndergaard might here and there in his first go-round in the big leagues. Baseball Prospectus says he doesn't throw quality strikes and can too easily lose focus and try to overpower hitters.
Fortunately, Syndergaard will be pitching in an NL East division that features some pitcher-friendly parks and some weak offensive teams. He'll get reality checks here and there but should be capable of an ERA in the low 3.00s across around 20 starts.
Kris Bryant, 3B, Chicago Cubs
11 of 11
MLB.com: No. 2
And now for the guy everyone wants to see, and rightfully so. Kris Bryant is coming off a year in which he hit .325/.438/.661 with 43 homers across two minor league levels, a performance that won him virtually every minor league award under the sun.
Be warned, though: It's still unlikely that the 23-year-old Bryant will be manning the hot corner for the Cubs on Opening Day. Even if he has a big spring, the Cubs are likely to delay his promotion until after they've secured an extra year of club control.
Fortunately, he'll only need to be kept down a couple weeks until the Cubs have that extra year. More than likely, Bryant is due for a full-ish season that sees him get around 600 plate appearances.
Expectations shouldn't be too high, though. Bryant is probably going to be humbled on defense, and strikeouts will be a problem. Potentially a really bad problem, in fact. His 6'5" frame creates a big strike zone to cover, which is an especially big curse these days given how big the strike zone is to begin with.
But Bryant should only be knocked down so many pegs. As I highlighted in January, his keen batting eye should translate to the majors. And though making contact should be tough, his quick swing, good plate coverage and easy natural power to all fields should ensure what contact he does make will be loud.
PECOTA thinks Bryant can flirt with 25 home runs in only 400 plate appearances. He should hit at least that many in 600 or so plate appearances, more likely flirting with 30 home runs. Add in what should be an OPS in the low .800s, and you have a potential unanimous Rookie of the Year winner.
Note: Stats courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted/linked.
.png?w=480)
