Best Draft-Day Contingency Plans for the San Francisco 49ers

The hardest part about predicting the NFL draft is the fact that just one unexpected pick early on can cause a cascade effect, altering selections and team needs throughout the rest of the draft.  The best-laid plans of draft experts can turn into nightmares very quickly.

For the San Francisco 49ers and general manager Trent Baalke, that means they can’t simply hope that the pick of their dreams will be there when they’re on the clock at No. 15.  They’ll have to have a number of contingency plans—options in case the draft doesn’t fall like they hoped or predicted.  The ability to react quickly to a changing draft board is the hallmark of a well-run organization.

Baalke and the 49ers have not been shy about targeting their players and moving around to get them.  Since 2010, when Baalke took over the draft room for the 49ers, the team has traded up and down to get players it has targeted.  In 2010, the 49ers traded up to grab Anthony Davis and in 2013 they traded up for Eric Reid, to name just the two highest-profile moves.  They’ve also zigged where experts had them zagging, taking Jimmie Ward instead of someone like Bradley Robey with their first pick last year.

While they may not be as active trading this year due to fewer picks, they still will have to have a number of contingency plans in place.  Here are some contingency plans, with how the 49ers' strategy might go come draft day based on different scenarios.

Plan A: Draft a Top-Three Wide Receiver

The top of the wide receiver draft class this year is Amari Cooper, Kevin White and DeVante Parker, in some order.  While Cooper and White have gotten most of the press, Parker’s far more likely to actually be available at No. 15 and would be a top-five option for the 49ers based on talent and need as it stands.              

With a good half of the teams ahead of the 49ers needing a receiver in this year’s draft, it might be overly optimistic to hope that more than half of them will opt to pass, allowing the 49ers to get a solid receiver in the middle of the round.  Still, it’s not entirely out of the question, especially if teams like the Cleveland Browns opt to take care of their receiver needs during free agency.

Using Fanspeak’s Mock Draft Simulator—a good quick and dirty way to see how the draft board may fall—I was able to have Parker drop to the 49ers about 70 percent of the time.  That might be an overly optimistic projection, but it’s certainly not inconceivable.  Sometimes, drafting is easy, and if Parker manages to drop all the way to the 49ers’ pick at 15, it’s an easy decision.  Otherwise, it’s on to Plan B.

Plan B: Draft DE Arik Armstead from Oregon

While wide receiver is San Francisco’s biggest need, it’s not its only one.  With Justin Smith’s future still up in the air and Ray McDonald long gone thanks to his off-field issues, defensive end is probably San Francisco’s second-greatest problem at the moment.

One of the defensive end spots will be filled by Tank Carradine in all likelihood, but with Smith surely not likely to last too much longer, finding a second replacement is very important for the team.  Head coach Jim Tomsula’s a defensive line guy, so the team could afford to grab someone who needs to develop a little bit and work him into the rotation, especially if Smith comes back for one more season.

Assuming, then, that the top three receivers are all off the board at No. 15, the best thing the 49ers could do is stay put and take the massive Arik Armstead out of Oregon. 

Armstead sits at 6’7” and 292 pounds with all the physical tools and traits you want out of a run-stopping defensive end.  He needs more time to mature as a player, however, as he only recently switched to playing football full time.  Learning a year behind Smith could only help him mature into a full-time player.  He’d be a better pick than reaching for someone in the next tier of receivers.

Of course, it’s possible that all three receivers and Armstead will be gone by the time the 49ers get on the clock.  In that case, it’s time to move to Plan C.

Plan C: Trade Back 5-10 Slots and Take a Wide Receiver

Brynn Anderson/Associated Press

If Cooper, Parker, White and Armstead are all gone before the 49ers pick at No. 15, it’s likely any pick the 49ers would take there would be a reach. 

The 49ers don’t need an offensive tackle like Stanford’s Andrus Peat or a nose tackle like Washington's Danny Shelton.  There are no guards or tight ends that make a lot of sense at the slot either, unless Iowa’s Brandon Scherff makes an unlikely tumble.  I suppose in the highly unlikely scenario that Jameis Winston or Dante Fowler falls on draft day, the 49ers could make a play for them, but that’s doubtful.

No, the best thing to do when your top targets are gone is to trade back and get some value.  The 49ers should try to make a deal with someone like the Pittsburgh Steelers or Detroit Lions and trade back into the upper 20s, getting an extra pick in the late second or early third round in return. 

Once back there, the 49ers could take their pick from the second set of wide receivers.  The three biggest names to look at there would be Devin Smith from Ohio State, Devin Funchess from Michigan and Dorial Green-Beckham from Missouri.

Green-Beckham is the most physically talented receiver of the set, and there’s an argument for making him the most physically talented receiver in the entire draft. 

His stock takes a hit, however, thanks to the numerous red flags around him—he was kicked off the team this past season due to multiple drug arrests and allegations of domestic violence.  He’s an incredibly high-potential, high-risk pick.  At No. 15, he’s too risky for my blood, but a trade back makes him a little more plausible.

I’d still rather have either Funchess, who could either take a tight end or wide receiver role in the NFL, or Smith, who might be the best pure deep-threat option in the entire draft.  They could even reach a little more for Arizona State’s Jaelen Strong if none of those three make it to their new draft slot. 

No matter which receiver the 49ers have as their top option after the Big Three, they could move back and get some solid value by just slipping back a handful of slots.

Second-Round Contingency Plan: WR Breshad Perriman from UCF

John Raoux/Associated Press

If the 49ers end up with Armstead in the first round or decide to double up as a safety net if they trade back and take Green-Beckham or one of the other second-tier receiver choices, they could justifiably grab a receiver in the second round to help shore up their primary need.  I certainly wouldn’t put it off any further than the second round if at all possible.

The next batch of receivers after the seven we’ve already mentioned includes intriguing names like Phillip Dorsett from Miami and Nelson Agholor from USC.  It’s more likely that they’ll go before the 49ers pick in the second round, so the University of Central Florida’s Breshad Perriman seems like the safest bet to count on being there for a contingency pick.

Perriman has all the measurables you want to see—he’s 6’2” and 212 pounds, with very long arms to match with his size and strength.  He’s a potential big-play threat and a legitimate deep weapon.

He has his downside too, of course, which is why he’s a second-round pick and not a first-rounder. 

He’s not a great route-runner, and a lot of his success at UCF is based on him simply physically being a better athlete than opposing defenses.  That’s not going to continue at the NFL level, so he needs to work on more of his positional skills as opposed to just his great natural talent.  His hands are also a bit disappointing; he drops too many passes and often will double-catch the ones he does grab.

He’s also coming off of an injury.  He had a hamstring strain that prevented him from working out at all at the combine, which should cool his draft stock some.

Will Perriman be there in Round 2?  It’s debatable.  Some, like Mel Kiper Jr. of ESPN, actually have him as a first-round selection, while others, like CBSSports.com’ Chip Patterson, have him down in the third round.  If he’s gone, someone like Dorsett or Agholor might be the pick down here—but the point is that there are several players who could be taken if the 49ers miss out on one of the top three wide receivers.

Second-Round Contingency Plan: Draft a Guard

Julio Cortez/Associated Press

If the 49ers do get a receiver in the first round, they can start to turn to other needs in Round 2.  Ideally, that’d be a 3-4 defensive end, but there’s a bit of a gap at that position after Leonard Williams and Arik Armstead come off the board. 

Someone like Iowa’s Carl Davis could slip to the 49ers in the second round, but it’s a fairly likely scenario that there just won’t be a defensive lineman worth taking when the 49ers are on the clock.

That could send the 49ers to their third need—an interior offensive lineman. 

Mike Iupati is likely leaving in free agency, and Alex Boone is on the last year of his contract.  The 49ers do have in-house options to fill those roles—primarily last year’s third-round pick, Brandon Thomas, or the loser of the Daniel Kilgore/Marcus Martin battle at center.  Considering the struggles the 49ers had in pass protection last year, however, adding some more talent would not be a bad idea at all.

Two guards who are very likely to be there in the middle of the second round are Florida State’s Tre Jackson and Duke’s Laken Tomlinson.

Jackson had a disaster of a combine, with a very slow 40-yard dash (5.52 seconds) and shorter arms (32 ⅝") than ideal.  However, when are you going to ask your guard to run 40 yards?  That’s far less important than the three years he had as a starter at Florida State, winning a national title.  In 2014, Jackson was never called for holding and allowed just 1.5 sacks, according to Gil Brandt of NFL.com.  That’s a solid second-round pick for me.

Tomlinson is another player with plenty of experience, having started four years at Duke.  He hasn’t allowed a single sack the past two seasons, according to Lance Zierlein of NFL.com, and that makes him a very enticing prospect.  Tomlinson looked great at the Senior Bowl, according to Mike Mayock of NFL.com, against top prospects like Washington’s Danny Shelton.  He doesn’t have the same sort of athleticism as some of the top prospects, which may lower his ceiling, but he can be a dependable player for years to come.

Third-Round Contingency Pick: Pick a Defensive End

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Ideally, the 49ers will take a defensive end before the third day of the draft.  While Round 2 might have too much of a void to really grab someone with good value, there are some interesting names who might be available in Round 3, in case the 49ers do not get Armstead.

From Stanford, the 49ers could take Henry Anderson. 

Anderson flashed some impressive agility at the NFL Scouting Combine, with a 7.2-second three-cone drill and a 4.19-second 20-yard shuttle.  He played all over the defensive line at Stanford and finished third in the Pac-12 in 2014 with 12.5 tackles for a loss.  He could stand to bulk up from his current 290 pounds, but with a little added power, his length (6'6") and size could be very useful.

Other names who might be available around here include Kentucky’s Za’Darius Smith, Florida State’s Mario Edwards and Clemson’s Corey Crawford.  With a third- or fourth-round pick, the 49ers should really find another young defensive end to pair with Tank Carradine going forward—they definitely should not put it off any later than that.

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.