San Francisco 49ers: What to Expect from the 15th Pick in the Draft

The San Francisco 49ers currently sit with the 15th overall selection in the 2015 NFL draft.  Fans are already dreaming about their new stud wide receiver, run-stopping defensive end or mauling guard who will be a starter and staple for the next decade on the roster.

Is that expectation realistic, though?  The 49ers aren’t going to get the player they covet most in the draft; they’re going to be saddled with, at best, their third choice or so, thanks to the sheer number of teams drafting ahead of them.  Getting the 15th-best player in a draft class means you end up with the likes of Jason Pierre-Paul, Michael Oher and Curtis Lofton, rather than Ndamukong Suh, Clay Matthews or Matt Ryan.  The target is a solid starter, not a Pro Bowler, per se.

With that in mind, I thought I’d take a brief look at the history of the 15th pick to get a better feel about what sort of players teams have been able to find there.  We can go all the way back to 1967, when the NFL and AFL first did a combined draft, to see how teams have found talent.

Anonymous/Associated Press

Going back to 1967 is convenient, because it allows us to include the best player ever drafted at that slot—Hall of Fame defensive tackle Alan Page.  Page, a six-time All Pro, nine-time Pro Bowler, 1971’s MVP and a member of the 1970s All-Decade team, is on the short list for greatest defensive lineman of all time. 

As one of the leaders of the famed Purple People Eater defense for the Minnesota Vikings in the ‘60s and ‘70s, Page played in all four Vikings Super Bowl losses before transitioning into a post-career role as an associate justice on the Minnesota Supreme Court.  Suffice it to say that if Page was available in this year’s NFL draft, he wouldn’t last until the 15th pick.

After Page, however, there’s a quite precipitous drop-off in talent.  Only seven of the 48 players drafted with the 15th pick became All-Pro-caliber talents, and none come close to holding a candle to Page. 

Sixteen of the 48 became Pro Bowlers, or one in three—that’s the odds we’re talking about when we’re looking at finding quality players at that draft spot.  While perhaps Bruce Irvin, Kenny Vacarro and Ryan Shazier will one day up that total, it’s still unrealistic to expect Pro Bowl production out of any specific player taken midway through the first round.

It’s a little more reasonable, however, to expect a decently long career as a starter.  Players taken with the pick have averaged nearly 77 starts in their NFL careers, with an average of five seasons as a regular starter, according to Pro Football Reference.  That is the baseline expectation, then—a player who is going to play out his entire rookie contract, including his fifth-year option, and then be replaced by a pick the year after.  Anything less than that is something of a disappointment, while anything more than that is a bit of gravy.

Seasons	Number	Examples
0	5	Ryan Shazier (2014 PIT), Tye Hill (2006 STL)
1	3	John Clay (1987 LARD), Ron Faurot (1984 NYJ)
2	4	Kenny Vacarro (2013 NO), Bruce Irvin (2012 SEA)
3	6	Jason Pierre-Paul (2010 NYG), Brian Cushing (2009 HOU)
4	5	Mike Pouncey (2011 MIA), Rod Gardner (2001, WAS)
5	8	Lawrence Timmons (2007 PIT), Michael Clayton (2004 TB)
6	6	Forrest Blue (1968 SF), Derrick Johnson (2005 KC)
7	2	Branden Albert (2008 KC), Tom Glassic (1976 DEN)
8	1	Vern Holland (1971 CIN)
10	3	Anthony Miller (1988 SEA), John Williams (1986 SEA)
11	1	Andy Heck (1989 SEA)
12	2	Wayne Gandy (1994 LARM), Isaac Curtis (1973 CIN)
13	1	Dennis Smith (1981 DEN)
15	1	Alan Page (1967 MIN)

If anything, this undersells the success of recent picks some.  Nine of the last 10 15th-overall picks are still active in the NFL, with seven of them starting at least half of their teams’ games last season.  Two more—2014 pick Ryan Shazier and 2005 pick Derrick Johnson—were penciled in as starters but suffered through injury-plagued seasons.

That’s quite an impressive track record, although it’s just slightly better than expected.  The average number of active starters in 2014 from players picked from 10th through 20th was 6.5, including players like Eric Reid, Mike Iupati and Michael Crabtree.

In fact, the 49ers have had quite a bit of success with mid-first-round picks.  They’ve arguably hit, or at least made a solid selection, in their last seven such picks.  Besides Reid, Iupati and Crabtree, that list includes Anthony Davis, Patrick Willis, Julian Peterson and J.J. Stokes.  That’s a pretty impressive track record.  The last failed draft pick in that range for the 49ers was back in 1992, when free safety Dana Hall quickly flamed out.  That’s a fairly impressive track record, and one the team will want to continue.

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

If you’re looking for a recent example of an average pick at this draft point, you’re really looking at someone like Branden Albert, whom the Kansas City Chiefs took in 2008. 

Albert started off slowly, but he gradually developed into a consistent, solid starter at left tackle.  He made the Pro Bowl in 2013 and signed a very large contract with the Miami Dolphins last offseason.  He’s not a top-five tackle, but he was good enough to allow the Chiefs to worry about other positions for six full years.  That’s the goal of picking at No. 15.

About 15 of the 48 picks could be considered notable successes, especially on defense.  Alan Page is joined by some recent linebackers, such as Derrick Johnson and Lawrence Timmons, in a list of the best players taken at the pick.  Conversely, about the same number can be considered busts.  That includes three recent receivers—Yatil Green, Rod Gardner and Michael Clayton.  That could be concerning for 49ers fans who are hoping for a big-time receiver at No. 15; recent history is not on that side.

As you might expect, the history of the 15th-overall pick is split roughly evenly between successes, failures and average picks.  It’s not a particularly safe slot, historically, but it also isn’t a particularly risky one—it’s not like the first-overall pick, where even the lesser picks generally have solid careers, but it also isn’t like picks toward the end of the first round, where the ceiling is relatively low.

To close out the look at the 15th pick, I figured I’d run a mini-ranking of the players the 49ers would draft, were they somehow all available in 2015.

1. DT Alan Page, Notre Dame (1967, Minnesota Vikings)

Only two defenders have ever won the MVP award.  One is Lawrence Taylor, and one is Alan Page.  A complete no-brainer of a selection, even if he spent most of his career in a 4-3 front.  You change your defense for a player like Page.

2. WR Anthony Miller, Tennessee (1988, San Diego Chargers)

Only 5’11” and 190 pounds, most people would think Miller would be too small to be a top receiver.  However, the ex-track star ran a 4.33 40-yard dash and provided an instant deep threat to the Chargers and Broncos, making five Pro Bowls in his career and averaging 15.4 yards per reception.  He’d provide the 49ers with the deep threat they’ve been missing.

3. WR Isaac Curtis, San Diego State (1973, Cincinnati Bengals)

Curtis was another speedster, running the 100-yard dash in just 9.3 seconds as a member of Cal’s track team.  As a member of the Bengals, he made four Pro Bowls in his first four seasons, though he did slow down somewhat after that.  It is because of Curtis that the NFL instituted the five-yard bump rule, as opposing defenders were forced to just maul Curtis.  No one could keep up with him.

4. DE Jason Pierre-Paul, South Florida (2010, New York Giants)

Pierre-Paul hasn’t yet quite regained the form that made him a superstar and All-Pro in 2011, but his 12.5 sacks last season shows that he’s far from done.  Assuming his off 2013 season was a fluke, thanks to surgery on a herniated disc, Pierre-Paul looks to have years of starting left ahead of him.  JPP would hold more value if the 49ers switch to a 4-3, but he’s the kind of piece that would make that more palatable.

5. OL Mike Pouncey, Florida (2011, Miami Dolphins)

Pouncey played his first three seasons at center before moving to offensive guard last season, and has been a Pro Bowler at both positions.  He’d replace Mike Iupati on the line, or anchor center and let Daniel Kilgore or Marcus Martin slide into the guard position.

6. LB Lawrence Timmons, Florida State (2007, Pittsburgh Steelers)

The 49ers don’t really have room for another inside linebacker, but Timmons’ quality is just too good to pass up. He may have just made his first Pro Bowl in 2014, but he has had several more deserving seasons leading up to this.

7. LB Derrick Johnson, Texas (2005, Kansas City Chiefs)

Johnson started his career as an outside linebacker, though he has had more success since moving to the inside.   I prefer Timmons just slightly, but neither the Chiefs nor the Steelers are exactly unhappy with their linebackers.

8. S Dennis Smith, USC (1981, Denver Broncos)

Smith lasted 14 seasons in the NFL, all with Denver.  For most of them, he was their ace strong safety, renowned for delivering bone-crushing hits.   A six-time Pro Bowler, he’d replace Antonie Bethea when Bethea eventually decides to hang it up.

9. OG Tom Glassic, Virginia (1976, Denver Broncos)

Glassic never made the Pro Bowl, but was a solid and consistent starter for the Broncos, starting 92 games over eight seasons at left guard.

10. OT Wayne Gandy, Auburn (1994, Los Angeles Rams)

Gandy bounced around the league a bit but ended up playing 15 years for four different teams, starting 205 games at left and right tackle for the Rams, Steelers, Falcons and Saints.

Honorable mentions: C Forrest Blue, FB John Williams

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on twitter.