Whether Wes Welker Retires or Returns, His NFL Legacy Is Already Set

Wes Welker is one of the unique players of his generation, but that’s not the only way we will remember him. We’ll remember him as one of the best receivers of his era. We’ll remember him as one of the best slot receivers of all time.

Since he caught so many passes from both Tom Brady and Peyton Manning, Welker is uniquely qualified to settle the debate about which one is better. We’ll remember that, too, and he’ll probably take the answer to his grave.

Whether Welker decides to call it a career at 33 years old or return in 2015, his NFL legacy is already set. The 5’9” slot receiver that went undrafted out of Texas Tech is just 10 receptions and 178 yards shy of the 10,000 yards and 900 receptions.

Only 19 players in history have more catches and yards than Welker, and they were all drafted in the fourth round or higher. Welker joins Rod Smith in the conversation of best undrafted wide receivers ever.

People have unfortunately used Welker’s name as a sort of racial stereotype for white wide receivers, but that’s just further evidence of his impact on the game. Teams were trying to find the next Welker for many years. As it turns out, finding a receiver like him is very difficult.

Player	Receptions	Yards	TD	Catch %
Larry Fitzgerald	909	12151	89	57.3
Andre Johnson	946	12621	60	62.2
Reggie Wayne	926	12446	71	62.3
Jason Witten	908	10155	56	70.9
Wes Welker	890	9822	50	71

Since Welker came into the league, only four players have more receptions and receiving yards than Welker. Even that doesn’t fully do his career numbers justice. Out of the five, Welker has the best catch percentage—71 percent.

Since 2005, when Welker caught his first pass, no receiver has more receptions. Since 1998, when the tracking of target stats started, Welker stands alone as the only receiver to catch over 70 percent of the passes intended for him.

Welker was never really a weapon in the red zone. Only once in his career did Welker catch 10 touchdown passes in a season, and he has just 50 total touchdowns in his career. That’s the fewest number of touchdowns of any receiver with as many catches and yards by a wide margin.

No, Welker was the king of first downs—a third-down conversion god sent to keep Brady and Manning upright, and offenses on schedule. That’s what made Welker so valuable for so long.

Brady and Manning could trust that Welker would figure out a way to get open when they most needed him to get open. Welker operated mostly between the hashes, exploiting linebackers and nickel cornerbacks repeatedly during his career.

Even last year, Welker was dependable in the slot. According to Pro Football Focus, Welker finished second in the league with a catch rate of 75 percent from the slot. Welker just wasn’t turning those catches into yardage, so Manning and the Broncos didn’t rely on him.

Year	Welker Rec.	Third-Down Conversion % (Rank)	First Downs by Pass (Rank)
2007	112	48.2 (2)	243 (1)
2008	111	43.2 (7)	186 (8)
2009	123	43.7 (8)	222 (3)
2010	86	48.2 (2)	196 (11)
2011	122	45.9 (4)	262 (2)
2012	118	48.7 (1)	256 (3)
2013	73	46.3 (2)	293 (1)
2014	49	44.1 (8)	227 (6)

According to ESPN, only once since 2007 has a team Welker has been on been worse than 10th in the league in either first-down passes or third-down conversion percentage, and it just so happens to be the year when he had 86 receptions. On average, Welker’s teams since 2007 have averaged a fourth-place finish in both categories.

Some of it is probably attributable to quarterback play, but it’s no shock that the Broncos declined in both first downs by pass and third-down conversion percentage in 2014 as Welker’s play also declined. The Patriots were able to replace Welker with Julian Edelman, who has been able to replace about 80 percent of his production at a fraction of the cost.

Over the past two seasons, Welker has had multiple concussions, which are reason enough to consider retirement. His production has unsurprisingly continued to decline with age, but the head injuries certainly haven’t helped him.

If Welker decides to come back, he’ll likely be playing for a new team. It’s unlikely that he’ll be fortunate enough to play with another quarterback who will eventually be enshrined into the Pro Football Hall of Fame again unless the Patriots pick him up for cheap, so Welker does have to put some thought into how good he can be at his age without a great quarterback.

There’s just not a lot left for Welker to accomplish in the NFL unless he feels the need to cross certain statistical thresholds. Welker didn’t get a Super Bowl ring, but unless a contender wants him in 2015, that’s likely not going to change.

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Unless otherwise noted, all statistics via Pro-Football-Reference.com.