NFL Mock Draft 2015: Updated Projections for Top Prospects Heading into Combine

If every prospect were like Andrew Luck, the NFL draft wouldn't be any fun.

Almost everyone could see that Luck would become a Pro Bowl quarterback once he entered the league, and his bust potential was almost nil. Anybody could be an NFL general manager if handling the draft meant picking Andrew Lucks every time.

Unfortunately, it's never that easy.

The 2015 NFL draft will be no different from any other year in that a number of potential first-round draft picks carry some level of risk.

The five players below are among the more dangerous of this year's crop. Their ceilings are as high as their floors are low.

Pick	Team	Player
1	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Jameis Winston, QB, Florida State
2	Tennessee Titans	Leonard Williams, DT, USC
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	Randy Gregory, OLB/DE, Nebraska
4	Oakland Raiders	Amari Cooper, WR, Alabama
5	Washington Redskins	Brandon Scherff, OT, Iowa
6	New York Jets	Marcus Mariota, QB, Oregon
7	Chicago Bears	Landon Collins, SS, Alabama
8	Atlanta Falcons	Shane Ray, DE, Missouri
9	New York Giants	Andrus Peat, OT, Stanford
10	St. Louis Rams	La'el Collins, OT, LSU
11	Minnesota Vikings	DeVante Parker, WR, Louisville
12	Cleveland Browns	Danny Shelton, DT, Washington
13	New Orleans Saints	Dante Fowler, OLB, Florida
14	Miami Dolphins	Shaq Thompson, OLB, Washington
15	San Francisco 49ers	Kevin White, WR, West Virginia
16	Houston Texans	Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State
17	San Diego Chargers	T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh
18	Kansas City Chiefs	Jaelen Strong, WR, Arizona State
19	Cleveland Browns	Benardrick McKinney, ILB, Mississippi State
20	Philadelphia Eagles	Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA
21	Cincinnati Bengals	Eddie Goldman, DT, Florida State
22	Pittsburgh Steelers	P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State
23	Detroit Lions	Michael Bennett, DT, Ohio State
24	Arizona Cardinals	Alvin Dupree, DE/OLB, Kentucky
25	Carolina Panthers	Ereck Flowers, OT, Miami
26	Baltimore Ravens	Vic Beasley, OLB, Clemson
27	Dallas Cowboys	Jalen Collins, CB, LSU
28	Denver Broncos	Ty Sambrailo, OT, Colorado State
29	Indianapolis Colts	Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M
30	Green Bay Packers	Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami
31	Seattle Seahawks	Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri
32	New England Patriots	Devin Funchess, WR/TE, Michigan

Riskiest First-Round Prospects

No. 8, Atlanta Falcons: Shane Ray, DE, Missouri

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Shane Ray only had one year of starting experience before bolting for the NFL. It wasn't through any fault of his own, given Missouri's bounty of great pass-rushers over the last few years.

The real concern is whether Ray's 14.5 sacks and 22.5 tackles for loss in 2014 are a bit of an aberration rather than a sign of his true talent.

Physically, Ray is one of the most tantalizing defensive players in the draft. He might actually have higher upside than Randy Gregory. He's so quick that opposing blockers barely have time to think before he's already got his hands on the quarterback.

In terms of technique, Ray still needs some work. He really struggles against the run, and NFL offensive linemen won't need long to figure him out if he doesn't add some moves to his arsenal.

Luke Easterling of Bleacher Report went so far as to say that Ray's teammate, Markus Golden, might offer more value in the draft:

Ray's potential will make him a top-10 pick, but he won't come without some risk. Plenty of athletic pass-rushers with Ray's profile have flamed out in the NFL before.

No. 17, San Diego Chargers: T.J. Clemmings, OT, Pittsburgh

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Necessity is the mother of invention. T.J. Clemmings saw his college career hanging in the balance and decided to make a change. That change just so happened to position him as a potential first-round draft pick.

"I just thought, 'If I don't make this move [to the offensive line], then I might not have a chance to be able to get playing time at Pittsburgh,'" he said back in November, per ESPN.com's Andrea Adelson. "I made the move just to get on the field, to do what was best not only for me but for the team."

Clemmings only has a little over two years as a full-time offensive lineman. With so little experience at the position relative to his draft counterparts, it's not a surprise that he is extremely raw heading into the draft.

There's little doubt that Clemmings has the potential to be an All-Pro offensive tackle in the NFL. He's exceptionally strong and nimble enough to keep pace with pass-rushers coming off the edge.

The question is whether he can utilize those physical gifts and become a reliable blocker.

The offensive line has been a concern for the San Diego Chargers for a few years now. Drafting D.J. Fluker helped, but it didn't solve the issue entirely.

Ideally, the Chargers would get a more NFL-ready player. Clemmings' upside would be impossible to ignore, though, and he'd offer great value in the middle of the first round.

No. 20, Philadelphia Eagles: Brett Hundley, QB, UCLA

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You have to pity the teams searching for a quarterback outside the first five or 10 picks. The pickings are pretty slim. The only QB with a realistic chance of going in the first round beyond Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston at the moment is Brett Hundley, and it's a bit of a stretch to put him there.

Hundley didn't have the best pass protection at UCLA, but even so, his propensity to hold on to the ball too long was a major issue in 2014. If that's a problem in college, then that's a serious concern as he heads to the NFL.

NFL.com's Lance Zierlein didn't exactly give a glowing review of the former Bruins signal-caller, comparing him to Jason Campbell:

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They have similar body types. Like Campbell, Hundley will enter the league needing to learn how to win from the pocket, but he shows flashes. Hundley has issues with getting through NFL-type progressions quickly, as Campbell did. I think Hundley could end up having the same career path. He could be a starter early in his career and might end up being a middling starter or an above-average backup.

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Hundley possesses a nice blend of passing skill and mobility that makes him an intriguing pro prospect.

The Philadelphia Eagles might want to consider their long-term options at the position after Nick Foles' regression in 2014. Hundley would be well-suited to step in should Philly pull the trigger.

No. 29, Indianapolis Colts: Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M

On one hand, it seems crazy to select an offensive lineman who had ACL surgery in January in the first round. The decision would seem even harder to defend given how much of Cedric Ogbuehi's upside is tied to his impressive athleticism.

With that said, if Ogbuehi can get back to where he was pre-injury, he'd be well worth a first-round selection. The Texas A&M tackle has both the power and agility to thrive in the NFL.

Before the injury, he was a surefire first-rounder and could've easily slipped into the top 10 with a strong combine.

Ogbuehi will be in Indianapolis, but he'll only do the bench press, as he told Stack.com. While that won't convince teams that his knee is feeling better, he might be able to turn a few heads with his strength.

With Anthony Castonzo and Gosder Cherilus on either side of line, the Indianapolis Colts would be well-positioned to draft Ogbuehi and wait a year before he's physically ready to make the jump.

No. 31, Seattle Seahawks: Dorial Green-Beckham, WR, Missouri

Although his flaws have been heavily documented and commented upon, it would be impossible to not put Dorial Green-Beckham on this list. His immense talent is nearly matched by his various off-field concerns and red flags.

Green-Beckham's timing couldn't be much worse, either, when it comes to entering the league. Just as Justin Blackmon inches closer toward his NFL return, Josh Gordon is headed to the inactive list for at least a year.

The Cleveland Browns knew they were taking a risk by selecting Gordon in the supplemental draft. The same would go for whichever team gambles on Green-Beckham, only the risk is about tripled:

DGB would be a nice fit for the Seattle Seahawks in that they're willing to give their players some leeway—i.e. Marshawn Lynch—and let them be themselves. Sometimes, a little freedom can be a good thing.

With that said, the Seahawks' future wouldn't be tied to Green-Beckham alone, so they wouldn't be afraid of potentially alienating him by coming down hard when he messes up.