Playing Fact or Fiction with All of MLB's Hottest Offseason Buzz

The rumor mill doesn't care what the calendar says. Just because we sit only two weeks away from the start of spring training and about a month off from Cactus and Grapefruit League action getting underway doesn't stop it from spinning, and this past week has seen the mill pick up some serious speed.

James Shields and Yoan Moncada, the two biggest names left on the free-agent market, have seen their markets begin to take shape, while things are picking up on the trade front as well, as we could see a five-time All-Star soon change uniforms.

Let's try and make sense of it all in this week's edition of Fact or Fiction.

Jonathan Papelbon Will Be Traded to Milwaukee

Tom Mihalek/Associated Press

While Philadelphia Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. told CSN Philly's Jim Salisbury that he was still having discussions with multiple clubs about a potential Jonathan Papelbon trade, it's painfully obvious that there's only one real suitor for the veteran closer—the Milwaukee Brewers.

Sources tell CBS Sports' Jon Heyman that the final obstacle to a deal being agreed to has nothing to do with the two years and $26 million left on Papelbon's contract (his 2016 vesting option will almost surely have to be guaranteed for him to waive his no-trade clause). Rather, it has to do with the return the Phillies would get from the Brewers.

Earlier this week, I proposed a deal that would send Papelbon and $13 million to Milwaukee in exchange for outfielder Gerardo Parra and pitching prospect Tyler Wagner. Whether the two sides ultimately agree on a deal that looks something like that is largely irrelevant, however.

Moving Papelbon would help to accelerate the team's rebuilding efforts, and let's be honest: A non-contender has no use for an expensive closer, especially when they've got a cheaper, younger option in Ken Giles waiting in the wings.

Philadelphia has been trying to rid itself of Papelbon since the 2013 non-waiver trade deadline with no luck, and Milwaukee is really the first serious suitor that the Phillies have found. Not even the oft-maligned Amaro is crazy enough to let this opportunity slip through his fingers.

Verdict: Fact

Cleveland Is Going to Sign a Veteran Outfielder

Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images

Don't count on Andruw Jones restarting his MLB career in Cleveland.

Reed Johnson, Andruw Jones and Ryan Ludwick (who has since signed a minor league deal with the Texas Rangers) were all mentioned by Heyman as options for the Indians as the team continues its search for a relatively inexpensive right-handed bat, but adding another outfielder doesn't make a lot of sense.

Why? Because really, there's simply no room for another outfielder in Cleveland.

The Indians currently have seven players on their roster capable of playing the outfield: starters Michael Bourn, Michael Brantley and Brandon Moss, reserves David Murphy and Ryan Raburn, designated hitter Nick Swisher and super-utility man Mike Aviles.

It's true that there are health concerns with the group, given that both Moss and Swisher had offseason surgeries, while Bourn hasn't been the picture of durability since signing with the team in 2013. Even so, Johnson isn't a better option than what they've already got, while Jones has been out of the league for two years and isn't the All-Star he once was.

The Chicago White Sox recently requested unconditional release waivers on Dayan Viciedo, and some may point to him as being a player worth taking a flier on. But he's a horrid defender, and his career numbers at Progressive Field (.204 BA, .650 OPS over 108 at-bats) don't scream that he's a good fit.

Cleveland may ultimately find the right-handed bat that it seeks, but it's not going to be one that it can currently find on the free-agent scrap heap.

Verdict: Fiction

James Shields Will Sign with the San Diego Padres

Jamie Squire/Getty Images

James Shields has reason to hoot and holler—his free-agent journey is about to end.

Suddenly, the market for James Shields has woken up.

The past few days have seen him linked to the Chicago Cubs (via CSN Chicago's David Kaplan), Miami Marlins (per MLB.com's Joe Frisaro), New York Yankees (via Fox Sports' Jon Morosi) and the St. Louis Cardinals (per USA Today's Bob Nightengale).

But Joel Sherman of the New York Post and CBS Sports' Jon Heyman report that the Yankees aren't in, while the Cardinals prefer to give Carlos Martinez a rotation spot over signing Shields, sources tell Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

That leaves the Cubs and Marlins, but multiple general managers have told Nightengale that Shields' "strong preference" is to pitch near his San Diego home, which makes Morosi's sources, who say Shields' agent has spoken with the San Diego Padres, all the more believable and likely.

After all, the Padres are still looking to add a front-line arm to their rotation, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports notes. As for the other California-based teams, they can be ruled out for a variety of reasons:

• Los Angeles Angels: GM Jerry Dipoto told the Orange Country Register's Jeff Fletcher that his team wasn't interested in Shields, even at a reduced price

• Los Angeles Dodgers: As Bleacher Report's Zachary D. Rymer wrote in December, the Dodgers don't need to add another arm to their rotation (and he's right—they don't)

• Oakland Athletics: Heyman tweets that he's checked and the A's aren't in on Shields

• San Francisco Giants: GM Brian Sabean has publicly stated that the Giants aren't pursuing Shields, most recently while a guest on KNBR Radio, per KNBR.com's Dieter Kurtenbach

That leaves the Padres, who are a fit for reasons besides their proximity to his home.

Not only would Shields become the de facto leader of a rotation that's big on talent but short on experience, but his fly-ball tendencies, which, according to Peter Gammons, were part of the reason the Boston Red Sox weren't interested, would be far less of an issue in Petco Park.

Padres GM A.J. Preller has aggressively been improving his club for months, and landing Shields in early February would be the perfect way for him to wrap up his first winter on the job.

Verdict: Fact

Yoan Moncada Is a Lock to Sign with a Big-Market Club

With all the governmental red tape behind him, 19-year-old Cuban sensation Yoan Moncada is finally able to sign with a major league club—and he's looking to do that sooner rather than later, as he told MLB.com's Jesse Sanchez:

"My goal is to sign with a team soon, start training with them, and make it to the Major Leagues as fast as I can with whichever team that might be. I know I'm going to do the best I can for as long as I can in this sport."

A five-tool player who has the potential to develop into an all-world talent, the overwhelming consensus throughout the winter has been that he'd ultimately sign with a big-market team, with the Boston Red Sox, Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees most often cited as his likeliest three landing spots.

It makes sense when you consider how much Moncada is going to cost to sign. Not every team is willing to spend on a talented-but-unproven player, especially when his contract is subject to a nearly dollar-for-dollar tax, meaning that a $40 million deal will ultimately cost a team close to $80 million, as Ken Davidoff of the New York Post recently laid out.

While multiple GMs have told Gammons that the Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees remain the favorites, they all cautioned the Hall of Fame reporter to not look past the Detroit Tigers, while a number of executives told ESPN's Buster Olney that they fully expect Oakland to make a run at the teen.

The A's may seem like a strange choice, but they surprised everyone when they signed Yoenis Cespedes back in 2012. Granted, Cespedes cost roughly half ($36 million) of what Moncada is expected to, but eliminating the A's (or another smaller-market club) at this point would be foolish.

Ultimately, the cost to sign Moncada may push him to a big-market club. But there's not a franchise that, realistically, can't afford to sign Moncada—they've all got pockets far deeper than most of us will ever understand.

It only takes one owner to buy into the hype and say "Screw it, let's take a shot on this kid" to flip the entire market upside down. Because of that, it's far too early in the process to etch his big-market future in stone.

Verdict: Fiction

Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs.

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