NFL MVP 2015: Preview and Predictions Before Awards Show

J.J. Watt takes a Ryan Fitzpatrick-led team within one game of the postseason. Aaron Rodgers makes the trip but injury and the defending champions derail the journey.

The 2015 NFL MVP race is unlike any other.

As the best of the best prepare to descend on the awards show, the favorites for the top honor are obvious. DeMarco Murray, Marshawn Lynch and Tom Brady are worth mentions, too, but the race has been a two-man sprint since about the halfway point of the season.

There are no easy answers for voters. Take an annually dominant quarterback or perhaps the most dominant force the league has seen since Reggie White?

Unlike Lynch's dealings with the media, there is no short-and-sweet answer.

The Case for Aaron Rodgers

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Rodgers failed to deliver. 

The circumstances, though, are difficult to ignore. Rodgers played through injury to take the Green Bay Packers to the postseason. Once there, he hoisted the team on his back against the Dallas Cowboys in the divisional round with three touchdowns to compensate for a defensive collapse.

Asked to do it all again in the NFC Championship Game in Seattle, he came up short, as those around him appeared lackadaisical at best. In reality, he was sharp throughout and led critical late drives while hobbling away from an elite Seattle rush.

The numbers say it all. Rodgers completed 65.6 percent of his passes on the year for 4,381 yards and 38 touchdowns to five interceptions.

For what it's worth, he also has the backing of another legendary Packers quarterback, as Fox Sports Live captures:

"

"If you look at the whole package, I'd say Aaron (Rodgers) by far is the best" @Favre4Official on best QB in the NFL https://t.co/6VGfR5cdM1

— FOX Sports Live (@FOXSportsLive) January 27, 2015"

It checks out at Pro Football Focus, where Rodgers grades out as the top quarterback in the league with a 40.4 mark. One other quarterback surpassed 30 points.

Mike McCarthy and the Packers failed Rodgers and will likely cost him the award.

It's a miracle the Packers accomplished as much as they did in two contests against Seattle and Dallas, as well as clashes with the top-tier defenses of the AFC East this season.

Not only did McCarthy blow a 16-0 lead in Seattle while Rodgers weathered the elements and a bum calf, but Rodgers' targets dropped a whopping 32 passes over the course of the season, per PFF's numbers.

Unfortunately for Rodgers, what could have been does not factor into the award.

The Case for J.J. Watt

Watt is a once-in-a-generation player. 

Sure, the Pro Bowl is a running joke from a competitiveness standpoint, but Watt even outshines the best of the best on vacation, as NFL on CBS captures:

Watt didn't just shine at the Pro Bowl with his two turnovers, though.

Where to start? Watt totaled 78 tackles in 2014. In other words, a defensive lineman wound up in second place on his team in that regard.

He also generated 20.5 sacks, matching a career-high mark set in 2012 and giving him 57.0 in four seasons. According to PFF, he also tallied 44 hits, 54 hurries, 61 stops and batted down 10 pass attempts. 

Obviously, he ranked No. 1 overall of the 47 3-4 ends ranked. He was the only player to record more than 1,000 snaps and wound up with a grade of 107.5. The next-closest grade—39.9. 

For an individual award, better solo dominance is difficult to name. Don't forget, too, that Watt also lined up on the offensive side of things a few times and scored three touchdowns on as many targets.

Prediction: Watt Wins MVP 

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Watt's season begs the question—if his resume does not land him the MVP award, how in the world will it ever go to a defender again? 

The truth is that tons of talent surrounded Rodgers. Feel free to name another player on Houston's defense outside of Brian Cushing, and on offense, Arian Foster and Andre Johnson. None of those named actually played all 16 games, either.

Take Watt off the Texans and, well, a second consecutive No. 1 overall pick may have been in order.

The NFL loves its quarterbacks. By simple logistics, they are the most important players on the field. Watt sure makes a case as a close second, though. By nature of his position, Watt cannot single-handedly make an entire unit elite, nor can he carry a team to the postseason.

He came close enough to earn the MVP of the league, though. If a defender is ever going to win again, it needs to be Watt.

Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus.