Horrendous Senior Quarterback Class Will Leave QB-Needy Teams Stranded in Draft

There are at least a half-dozen teams in the National Football League who could be looking for quarterback upgrades this offseason, but there are only three signal-callers in the 2015 NFL draft class who can viably be considered potential starters.

Two of those quarterbacks, Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Florida State’s Jameis Winston, are likely to be top-10 picks. While Mariota faces questions about how well he will be able to transition to a pro-style offense and Winston’s stock could fall due to off-field concerns, both are Heisman Trophy winners with the physical tools to emerge as NFL stars.

Some believe that there are only two quarterbacks who warrant consideration as prospective starters. UCLA’s Brett Hundley might be the draft’s most polarizing prospect, and he needs to improve his pocket presence and ball placement to succeed at the next level. Nonetheless, his physical tools and playmaking ability are likely to entice a team into investing a first- or second-round pick in belief that he can develop into a franchise quarterback.

Mariota, Winston and Hundley, the only three quarterbacks to enter this year’s draft who still had remaining eligibility to play collegiately, are also the only prospects at their position who are worthy of being top-100 picks.

The early entrances of Blake Bortles, Johnny Manziel and Teddy Bridgewater into last year’s draft played a part in thinning out the quarterback talent available in this year’s draft, but all of them proved smart to leave school as they ended up being first-round picks.

A number of underclassmen quarterbacks who potentially could have been early-round picks this year, including Michigan State’s Connor Cook, USC’s Cody Kessler and Ohio State’s Cardale Jones, decided to return to school. While each of them could have taken advantage of the lack of talent in this year’s quarterback class, all of them are likely to benefit from another year of development at the collegiate level.

Simply put, this year’s crop of senior quarterbacks is just not very talented.

While most draft classes include at least one or two quarterbacks that significantly elevated their stock in breakout senior seasons, this year’s group of passers does not. On the contrary, a number of senior prospects like Baylor’s Bryce Petty, Oregon State’s Sean Mannion and Nevada’s Cody Fajardo failed to live up to preseason hype.

Petty still has a chance to be the top senior quarterback selected, but that’s only because no one else has emerged as a player who should be drafted earlier than the fourth round.

While Petty has good size (6’3”, 230 lbs) and a strong arm, his accuracy on deep throws is a problem. Coming from a spread offense in which his numbers were inflated by a high percentage of short throws to open receivers, Petty completed just 63.1 percent of his passes in 2014.

The following clip from Baylor’s loss to West Virginia, on which he missed what should have been a 26-yard touchdown pass on 4th-and-7 to wide-open wide receiver Antwan Goodley, was one of many examples from this past season in which Petty’s touch and ball placement were off the mark.

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Petty does not currently throw the ball with enough precision to consistently complete passes beyond 15 yards downfield against NFL defenses.

One senior quarterback who should be drafted ahead of Petty is Colorado State’s Garrett Grayson, who stands out as the top candidate in a weak class to be the fourth quarterback off the board.

Named as the top quarterback performer at this year’s Senior Bowl practices, Grayson is a 6’2”, 215-pound passer who completed 64.3 percent of his passes this past season for 4,006 yards and 32 touchdowns, with only seven interceptions.

Coming from a pro-style offensive system, Grayson consistently showed the ability to make accurate throws from the pocket, with enough arm strength to hit deep balls down the field. Of any of this year’s senior quarterbacks, Grayson looks the most capable of stepping in and leading an NFL offense.

That said, Grayson still projects as a second-string quarterback who could fill in as a spot starter but not as a franchise quarterback.

Although Grayson was efficient against collegiate defenses, he tends to stare down his targets and struggles when he has to throw under pressure and/or on the run. Grayson’s flaws are correctable, but he will have to significantly improve in those areas as he does not have any outstanding physical traits.

Grayson projects as a fourth-round-caliber talent, but it is possible that the lack of depth in this year’s quarterback class could push him up into Day 2 of the draft.

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Beyond Petty and Grayson, there are no other senior quarterbacks who are sure bets to be drafted this year.

Possible late-round picks include Sean Mannion, East Carolina’s Shane Carden, Alabama’s Blake Sims and Old Dominion’s Taylor Heinicke. All of them were solid collegiate quarterbacks, but they lack the physical tools to project as better than backups for NFL teams.

There are also some quarterbacks who have enticing physical tools but need to improve drastically to even be capable second-stringers in the NFL, including South Alabama’s Brandon Bridge, Southeastern Louisiana’s Bryan Bennett and Colorado State-Pueblo’s Chris Bonner.

Bridge and Bennett are both rocket-armed quarterbacks with dual-threat athleticism, while Bonner is a 6’7” statue who can sling it deep. All three of those quarterbacks, however, have significant issues with accuracy. Bridge completed just 52.1 percent of his passing attempts this past season, Bennett completed just 49.5 percent of his passes as a senior (against FCS competition), while Bonner won a Division II championship but completed just 60.2 percent of his throws.

Those accuracy issues should make them undraftable, yet Bennett got a call to this year's Senior Bowl, while both Bridge and Bonner have been billed as potential Day 3 picks by some draft analysts. Although all three should be considered long shots to make it at the next level, they might have more appeal to NFL teams this year than most years due to the lack of quarterback talent in front of them.

There could be as few as five signal-callers selected in this year’s draft, or there could be more if teams are willing to take chances on other quarterbacks in the draft’s late rounds. Either way, it is unlikely that more than a few passers in this year's class will have a lasting impact on the NFL.

Teams That Need New Quarterbacks and Their Options

The only two quarterbacks widely considered to be worthy first-round picks could potentially both be off the board by the No. 3 overall selection. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Tennessee Titans, who hold the draft’s first and second picks respectively, could each be set to draft either Mariota or Winston, as both teams have uncertainty at the quarterback position.

Other teams that should be looking for new quarterbacks include the New York Jets (who pick sixth overall), St. Louis Rams (10th), Houston Texans (16th) and the Buffalo Bills (no first-round pick). The Philadelphia Eagles are reportedly eyeing a quarterback draft pick, according to Bleacher Report's Cecil Lammey, while the Washington Redskins, Chicago Bears, Arizona Cardinals and Denver Broncos are also teams who have reason to look for quarterbacks of the future.

The reality for most of those teams, however, is that there might not be any good options available to them. 

As bleak as this year’s quarterback draft class looks beyond Mariota and Winston, the upcoming free-agent crop at the position does not look any better. Any of those teams that plan to bring in a potential starting quarterback via free agency will be forced to choose from an uninspiring group of veterans like Jake Locker, Brian Hoyer, Mark Sanchez and Matt Moore.

It’s possible that a slightly better veteran starter such as Sam Bradford (Rams), Nick Foles (Eagles), Robert Griffin III (Redskins) or Jay Cutler (Bears) could hit the trade block, but that will only happen if one of their teams lands one of the few quarterbacks in this year’s draft.

Teams like the Jets, Texans and Bills might be left without any options that are better than stopgaps for the 2015 season—but they shouldn’t let desperation trap them into overdrafting quarterbacks this year.

While most drafts have at least one or two quarterbacks available as legitimate Day 2 prospects who are good enough to be developed into starters, this year’s draft does not.

Teams who don’t select one of the top quarterbacks in this year’s draft, even if they are in need at the position, might be best suited by not drafting one at all.

Dan Hope is an NFL/NFL Draft Featured Columnist for Bleacher Report.

Follow @Dan_Hope