2015 Lions Mock Draft: Early Offseason 7-Round Predictions

Draft season is speculation season, and now that the Detroit Lions are out of the playoffs, let the speculation begin!

Detroit will pick 23rd in the first round based on its 11-5 finish and first-round playoff departure. Because they have the same record as Arizona and Pittsburgh, they will pick 22nd in some rounds and 24th in some others. Right now the Lions do still hold their picks in each round, as they have neither traded away nor acquired any selections.

When doing a mock draft, it's always important to specify whether the picks are choices you personally would make or if you're attempting to forecast what the team is going to do. Because it's so early in the draft process, this edition reflects choices I would make. It's too premature to try to guess what general manager Martin Mayhew is thinking.

I'll include a couple of extraneous conditions here, too. These picks are assuming:

• Ndamukong Suh is re-signed, as is fellow defensive tackle C.J. Mosley but not Nick Fairley.
• Running back Reggie Bush and linebacker Stephen Tulloch are cut as cap casualties.

Keep that in mind as you peruse the following picks.

First Round: Trae Waynes

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

The Pick: Trae Waynes, CB, Michigan State

The Rationale

Rashean Mathis has been very good as a starting corner for the last two seasons, but he'll be 35 and is an unrestricted free agent. Even if he does return, the Lions are in desperate need of youthful talent at the outside cornerback position. 

Waynes played an aggressive press-man style at Michigan State which easily translates to Detroit's scheme under coordinator Teryl Austin. He's got desirable length at 6'1" and has shown he can turn and run with faster receivers, something Mathis has struggled with in Detroit. He's also well-versed in run support, something the Lions value very much out of their defensive backs. 

Here's a video from Bleacher Report's Matt Miller discussing Waynes as he declared for the draft. If Miller is correct and Waynes comes off the board before Detroit picks—I'm not sold that happens at this point—then I would opt for help along the offensive or defensive lines with some of the candidates listed below.

Under no circumstances would I consider a running back in this spot. None. The return on investment for a running back here is like trading Apple stock for potato chips and brown bananas.

Others Considered, in Order

T.J. Clemmings, T, Pittsburgh

Danny Shelton, DT, Washington

Malcom Brown, DT, Texas

Ronnie Stanley, T, Notre Dame

P.J. Williams, CB, Florida State

Second Round: Duke Johnson

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The Pick: Duke Johnson, RB, Miami (FL)

The Rationale

This is why I am so adamantly opposed to a first-round running back. Johnson is a starting-caliber back who is expected to post eye-popping speed numbers in workouts. 

Here's what former NFL general manager Greg Gabriel had to say about the Hurricanes rusher back in November for National Football Post:

"

The one thing Johnson has is great quickness and speed. He has exceptional initial quickness and gets to full speed very quickly. I would estimate his speed to be in the mid to low 4.4’s.

Johnson plays from both a pro set and a spread. He has no false step and very good initial quickness. Even with all that speed and quickness, he is a patient runner who does an excellent job following and setting up blocks. In addition, Johnson runs with very good lean and has excellent vision/instincts. He is a creative runner who can make a cut in the hole and find a new seam.

"

It's the vision and decisive initial burst which make him a great fit for Detroit. He can step right into the Reggie Bush role, the lightning back to Joique Bell's successful thunder. Because Johnson is also an accomplished receiver (38 catches for 421 yards in 2014), the transition to the NFL should be quick. 

This range in the draft appears rich with running back talent. Indiana's Tevin Coleman and Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah are both likely to come off the board in this range. Truth be told, I would prefer Coleman, but my current projection is that he gets selected a few picks earlier. 

If the Lions do not draft a cornerback in the first round, my choice would be Utah's Eric Rowe. He's a converted safety with outstanding closing burst and great physicality as an outside cover man. 

Others Considered, in No Particular Order

A.J. Cann, G, South Carolina

Cody Prewitt, S, Ole Miss

Eric Kendricks, ILB, UCLA

Justin Hardy, WR, East Carolina

Denzel Perryman, ILB, Miami (FL)

Third Round: Anthony Harris

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The Pick: Anthony Harris, S, Virginia

The Rationale

With James Ihedigbo and Glover Quin, Detroit has a solid safety tandem. Quin is an emerging star, but "Dig" is now 31 and showed serious limitations in coverage down the stretch (remember the 4th-and-6 to Jason Witten in the Dallas game?). 

Taking Harris would be a proactive move to shore up the future while also reinforcing the present. He's a nice fit as a strong safety in Detroit's system, playing the run first while holding coverage responsibilities on tight ends and crossing receivers. 

Two things stand out when watching Harris. First, he lives for making big tackles. Few collegians uncoil power through their entire body while wrapping and dropping as well as the senior from suburban Richmond. 

Secondly, he's opportunistic. While his interceptions fell to just two last fall, he picked off eight passes in his junior year. Several of those were on tipped passes, including one against Clemson where he tipped the ball to himself. 

Here's what Rob Rang of CBS has to say about Harris:

"

Accelerates smoothly and is an aggressive, instinctive defender who is willing to take gambles. He anticipates routes nicely and breaks on them, leaving himself in good position to intercept passes. Possesses very good ball skills, including timing, body control to contort in space and soft hands to pluck outside of his frame.

Harris is just as aggressive in run support, attacking blockers and exploding toward ballcarriers to limit the yardage allowed.

"

It's worth noting Rang is correct in his further assessment that Harris "has a terrific burst to close once he locates the ball, Harris can lose sight of it at times and be late to recover". 

That's one reason why such an accomplished talent should still be available late in the third round. 

Others Considered

Christian Covington, DT, Rice

Quinton Rollins, CB/S, Miami (OH)

Tyler Lockett, WR/RS, Kansas State

Tony Lippett, WR, Michigan State

Durell Eskridge, S, Syracuse

Fourth Round: Jamil Douglas

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The Pick: Jamil Douglas, G, Arizona State

The Rationale

Last year, the Lions drafted the starting center of the future in Travis Swanson. This year, it's time for the new starting left guard, as incumbent veteran Rob Sims needs to be replaced. 

One of the key factors the Lions look for in offensive linemen is athletic ability. In coordinator Joe Lombardi's offense, there is frequent movement. It's not uncommon for the left guard to pull around the right tackle or fire straight out to the inside linebacker. 

That's why Douglas is such a good fit for Detroit. The Sun Devils standout is an outstanding athlete. In fact, his athletic prowess led Fox Sports' Bruce Feldman to list him on his college football "freaks," noting:

"

A former high school tight end, who weighed 260 pounds as a freshman four years ago, Douglas has blossomed into a standout for the Sun Devils and will become a three-year starter this fall. Now, at 6-4 and 301 pounds, he power cleans 385 pounds, squats 565 and has a body fat measurement in the teens.

"

He played guard in his first three seasons but kicked outside to tackle as a senior. He wasn't bad on the edge, but his NFL future lies at left guard. Even though he's not built like the stereotypical squat guard, he's got the strength and tenacity to pull it off. 

The biggest issue with Douglas is his pad level in the run game. That's a function of him being leaner and taller than most guards. Yet in Detroit's offense the primary function of the left guard is keeping quarterback Matthew Stafford upright. 

Others Considered

Joey Mbu, DT, Houston

James Castleman, DT, Oklahoma State

Daryl Williams, T, Oklahoma (moved inside to guard)

Cam Thomas, CB, Western Kentucky

B.J. Finney, C, Kansas State

Fifth Round: Deontay Greenberry

Sharon Ellman/Associated Press

The Pick: Deontay Greenberry, WR, Houston

The Rationale

At this point in the draft, there are one of two tacks to take. Teams can take a player with limited potential, someone who can contribute as a reserve and on special teams but is unlikely to ever be more than a role player. 

Or they can roll the dice with a player who could be a star, but could just as easily flame out and not survive through his second training camp. 

For a team sitting where Detroit is poised, I'm going with the high-risk/high-reward talent in the fifth round. That player is Houston wideout Deontay Greenberry.

The early entrant is 6'3" and a sculpted 200 pounds. He's a fantastic leaper, able to climb the ladder to bring down high throws. Greenberry uses his length and strength adeptly, able to create space for himself but also operate well in traffic. His top-end potential resembles Dez Bryant.

Alas, there's a reason why such a promising talent will likely fall to the fifth round. Greenberry is wildly inconsistent. It's not even from game to game but even play to play where you just don't know which Deontay Greenberry you're going to see.

He will run lazy routes. Choosing the correct option on a route based on reading coverage is often an adventure. Then there are his hands...

"

Deontay Greenberry continues to struggle this season with concentration drops. He hasn't taken the step forward many had hoped for this year

— Ian Wharton (@NFLFilmStudy) October 3, 2014"

Concentration drops probably brings tight end Eric Ebron to mind for many Lions fans. The difference here is that the investment is a fifth-round pick, not No. 10 overall. 

There are simply too many other players considered to list here and in the remaining rounds. One other player I did almost choose here is Central Michigan wideout Titus Davis. 

Sixth Round: Taylor Heinicke

Gerry Broome/Associated Press

The Pick: Taylor Heinicke, QB, Old Dominion

The Rationale

Somewhat amazingly, Martin Mayhew has only drafted one quarterback in his six drafts as Lions' general manager. While taking Matthew Stafford has certainly paid off, there is a need for a developmental project.

Enter one of the most prolific passers in college football history, Taylor Heinicke of Old Dominion. A four-year starter for the Monarchs, he has decent potential to stick around at the NFL level.

"

#OldDominion QB Taylor Heinicke doesn't scream NFL prospect but he does a lot of things well. Quick trigger and throws a very catchable ball

— Dane Brugler (@dpbrugler) November 4, 2014"

In watching a couple of Old Dominion games this year, here are some general observations about Heinicke:

• Average arm strength but velocity doesn't wane down the field
• Gets rid of the ball quickly and efficiently
• Not afraid to hang tough and take a hit after throwing
• Able to create with his legs, though not a speedy runner
• Surprisingly effective punter

With backup Dan Orlovsky and third-stringer Kellen Moore both hitting free agency, it makes sense to bring in a young quarterback to learn the system and develop behind Stafford. 

Seventh Round: Marcus Hardison

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The Pick: Marcus Hardison, DL, Arizona State

The Rationale

One of the keys for a late-round pick to make a roster is the ability to fit into a clearly defined role on the team. Arizona State defensive lineman Marcus Hardison fits that bill. 

Notice he's a defensive lineman, not an end or tackle. That's important because the Lions love to move players around all over the line. Guys like Jason Jones, Devin Taylor, Darryl Tapp and Ezekiel Ansah lined up at both tackle and end last season. It helps create confusion and allows Detroit to present multiple looks with the same personnel on the field.

Hardison can do that. He primarily played as a pass-rushing end in ASU's three-man front, but he has the size and athleticism to slide to a 3-technique or play as the strong-side end. 

He's a bit under the radar now, though some have noticed his potential.

"

Watching some tape of Arizona State DE/DT Marcus Hardison right now. Fairly blown away. This reminds me of Jason Pierre-Paul.

— Chris Kouffman (@ckparrot) January 6, 2015"

"

ASU's Marcus Hardison is a really underrated prospect. 6'4"/300, 10 sacks this year playing 5Tech, and can turn edge: http://t.co/C1jEvHyZcu

— Jared Stanger (@JaredStanger) December 13, 2014"

Hardison can struggle to locate the ball and doesn't have the ability to get off a block if he doesn't immediately win on a play. Still, his pass-rushing proclivity and positional versatility are worth a seventh-round flier.