
Fantasy Football: Daily League Guide to Wild Card Saturday
The culmination of the NFL regular season doesn't stop the fantasy players. They play on with daily fantasy and its instant payoffs in the playoffs.
Bleacher Report is here to help you play and get paid with its Daily League Guide to Wild Card Saturday, where we delve in depth into the matchups between the Arizona Cardinals at the Carolina Panthers and the Baltimore Ravens at the Pittsburgh Steelers. These are not the juiciest of fantasy matchups because of the defenses involved, but they are the ones where the most potential bargains might be found.
Also, Antonio Brown ($8,900) is in this group. He is, after all, the best wide receiver in fantasy land—especially since Odell Beckham Jr. has to sit this tournament out.
A lot of the weekend hinges on the health of Le'Veon Bell ($9,000), who was making strides in his recovery this week, he told Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette:
"I can't tell the future. I'm going to take my time. I'm not going to rush it. I just want to make sure everything is OK and take care of myself. If I feel ready, I'm definitely going to try to get on the field and play. We'll see what happens. ...
The doctors are telling me it's not something that can get worse if you play. That's good to hear. I just want to continue to take it day by day. I don't want to play fearing my knee will get hurt. When I go out and play, I want to be comfortable, not have to think about cutting or jumping. I want to be at the point where I'm able to be productive and help this team win.
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We analyze Bell's status and every statistically significant fantasy angle from Saturday's matchups here, and polish the slideshow off with a ranking of the day's top options.
Note: Practice participation information comes from the official NFL injury report (credentials required), all dollar values are from the games at DraftKings.com and all references to fantasy points against specific positions are derived from FFToday.com.
The Way the Las Vegas Opinions/Numbers Are Pointing...
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If you are stacking games and playing for the whole weekend, Saturday's matchups are the wrong ones to do it with. They boast the two lowest totals of the weekend in Las Vegas.
The overall quality of the offenses are a bit better in the nightcap, but they are both defensively-proud franchises that might play a bit closer to the vest than they did last time. The Ravens and Steelers are two teams playing for the third time this season, having split the regular-season games.
Remember, the last time those teams met, Ben Roethlisberger ($7,300)—the fourth-priciest quarterback on the board—threw for a franchise-record six touchdowns in a 43-23 home blowout. The game at Baltimore was a blowout the other way (26-6), albeit with the under instead of the over.
Here is the Las Vegas tale of the tape, all per OddsShark.com, as the data pertains to daily fantasy action.
Arizona Cardinals at Carolina Panthers
Favorite: Carolina (-6)
Total: 38
Super Bowl futures: Panthers (33-1), Cardinals (66-1)
NFC futures: Panthers (18-1), Cardinals (33-1)
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
Favorite: Pittsburgh (-3)
Total: 45
Super Bowl futures: Steelers (14-1), Ravens (40-1)
AFC futures: Steelers (7-1), Ravens (18-1)
Most Passing Yards
- Andrew Luck (IND)—7-4
- Ben Roethlisberger (PIT)—2-1
- Matthew Stafford (DET)—4-1
- Tony Romo (DAL)—7-1
- Joe Flacco (BAL)—10-1
- Andy Dalton (CIN)—12-1
- Cam Newton (CAR)—15-1
Most Receiving Yards
- Antonio Brown (PIT)—5-2
- Dez Bryant (DAL)—4-1
- Calvin Johnson (DET)—4-1
- T.Y. Hilton (IND)—6-1
- A.J. Green (CIN)—7-1
- Golden Tate (DET)—9-1
- Kelvin Benjamin (CAR)—10-1
- Steve Smith (BAL)—15-1
- Torrey Smith (BAL)—15-1
- Greg Olsen (CAR)—20-1
Arizona Cardinals Injury Report
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QB Drew Stanton (knee)
He has not practiced, has been ruled out and Ryan Lindley ($5,200) will start, head coach Bruce Arians told Kent Somers of AZCentral.com. Be wary of everyone in the Cardinals offense, unless they come at a huge bargain and are lineup fillers.
DT Frostee Rucker (ankle)/DT Dan Williams (foot)
Two of the Cards' best run-stuffing defensive linemen on fantasy's fourth-best team against running backs are banged up and practicing on a limited basis. It should be noted the Cardinals are struggling against fantasy backs of late, ranking 11th-worst in the past three weeks and 12th-worst in the past five. This certainly makes resurgent Jonathan Stewart ($5,300) more intriguing.
DE Calais Campbell (hip)/LB Larry Foote (knee)/S Tyrann Mathieu (thumb, hip)
They each had a full practice Thursday, but the fact they are not 100 percent is noteworthy enough if you are considering buying Panthers offensive options.
Carolina Panthers Injury Report
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The Carolina Panthers are decidedly healthier than the Arizona Cardinals, especially when you consider nickel defender Thomas DeCoud (hamstring) is the player head coach Ron Rivera is most concerned about being available, as Jonathan Jones of the Charlotte Observer reported.
RB DeAngelo Williams (hand)
He is practicing in full now, but we should fully expect the resurgent Jonathan Stewart ($5,300) to be the starter and full-time feature back. Williams ($4,000) is a decent bargain, but he might not be available for the passing downs.
Williams had been held out of the past four games with a hand injury. He was even inactive last week, despite being listed as probable, because he would be a liability in pass protection, Jones reported Tuesday. Stewart is still the better buy, particularly because he will be the more useful passing-down back and candidate for receptions.
DB Thomas DeCoud (hamstring)
He did not practice Thursday, but he doesn't dramatically impact fantasy value either way. All of the Cardinals' offensive options are limited by ineffective starting quarterback Ryan Lindley ($5,200).
Baltimore Ravens Injury Report
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The Baltimore Ravens don't have a lot of injury concerns, but they might be without their left tackle again, forcing them to start an undrafted rookie. Look out Joe Flacco ($6,700) from your blind side.
LT Eugene Monroe (ankle)
Monroe is still in a walking boot, a source told The Baltimore Sun's Aaron Wilson Thursday, so undrafted rookie James Hurst will draw the start again. This will impact Flacco and might lead you to play the Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000) as your defense/special teams. This is the third-cheapest unit on the board.
DT Timmy Jernigan (foot, ankle)
He has not practiced, but the return of DT Haloti Ngata from a four-game suspension will make up for Jernigan's potential absence. It shouldn't change your values on the Steelers running backs.
Pittsburgh Steelers Injury Report
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Le'Veon Bell (knee) is clearly the most significant player on the injury report this weekend, and it doesn't look good for him. In fact, with his price atop the charts at $9,000, he is a horrible play even if he was to be active Saturday night after lineup deadlines were due.
Pittsburgh Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley told Ray Fittipaldo of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Thursday they are preparing the backups, rookie Josh Harris ($3,500) and recently signed Ben Tate (not available at Draft Kings), because they are not expecting Bell to be ready after he hyperextended his knee Sunday night. (More on Dri Archer ($4,500) below.)
"We're planning as if we're not going to have (Bell). If we have him, we know we can handle that. It's more of a matter of getting these other guys ready to go. ... It's not just one guy coming in and doing what he does. It's a group effort and that includes other positions. That'd be too much to put on any one guy, what he's giving us through the course of this season.
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We look into the potential bargains replacing him while breaking down the injuries as they pertain to the rest of the daily plays and prices in Saturday's matchups.
RB Le'Veon Bell (knee)
He will play if he can, but he is a late-night, game-time decision and is unlikely to carry his cost, which is the highest on the board. It will require some real stones to play him. But, we suppose, it sometimes requires those to win in those huge daily fantasy player fields.
If you are playing Bell's backups, go with Harris. Bell might play, but he won't be 100 percent and Harris will impact the game as a runner.
Archer is not a true running back and acts more as a pass receiver and scatback. Archer also carries a higher price tag, even if he might get more pass receptions.
T Mike Adams (illness), DT Steve McLendon (shoulder), TE Heath Miller (not injury related), TE Michael Palmer (groin), S Troy Polamalu (knee), QB Ben Roethlisberger (not injury related), CB Ivan Taylor (shoulder, forearm)
They all had full participation in practice Thursday and we don't see a real reason to adjust fantasy values because of their minor issues.
4 Fantasy Matchup Breakdowns for Saturday
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Here are a few of Saturday's statistically significant matchups to weigh when setting your daily fantasy lineups this weekend.
Jonathan Stewart vs. Arizona Cardinals Run Defense
As we stated in a previous slide, the Cardinals run defense has been suspect in recent weeks. Stewart and the Panthers have also been better. Stewart is a solid play in Saturday's action, perhaps even second only to the Cincinnati Bengals' Jeremy Hill ($6,200) at the Indianapolis Colts on the weekend as a whole.
Pittsburgh Steelers Running Backs vs. Baltimore Ravens
Regardless of Bell's status, his health isn't there and the matchup isn't either. The Ravens have been the No. 1 team against fantasy running backs this season. Le'Veon Bell ($9,000) and Dri Archer ($4,500) are bad plays. Josh Harris ($3,500) is marginally intriguing because he comes at a bargain.
Kerwynn Williams vs. Carolina Panthers Run Defense
The Panthers defense is hot right now, ranking No. 1 in fantasy against running backs the past three weeks and No. 2 in the past five, as the only team to not allow a touchdown to the position. Williams ($3,700) looks like a bargain, but the matchup says otherwise because of recent data.
Pittsburgh Steelers Receivers vs. Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens were the fifth-worst team in fantasy against wide receivers this season—thanks in part to that six-touchdown ripping Ben Roethlisberger handed them earlier—but the Ravens defense has played much better of late. They are No. 1 against fantasy quarterbacks and No. 4 against wide receivers in the past three weeks.
Look at the source, though. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Houston Texans and Cleveland Browns have junk in the passing game compared to the Steelers.
Brown ($8,900) is worth the premium still. He is just too good and too hot. Martavis Bryant ($4,100) and Markus Wheaton ($3,100) are solid bargains.
Ranking Saturday's Plays by Position
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Taking the analysis from this slideshow, here is how we rank the plays at each position in Saturday's matchups.
Quarterbacks
- Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers ($7,300)
- Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens ($6,700)
- Cam Newton, Carolina Panthers ($7,600)
- Ryan Lindley, Arizona Cardinals ($5,200)
Running Backs
- Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens ($6,100)
- Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers ($5,300)
- Josh Harris, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,500)
- Kerwynn Williams, Arizona Cardinals ($3,700)
- Le'Veon Bell, Pittsburgh Steelers ($9,000)
- DeAngelo Williams, Carolina Panthers ($4,000)
- Dri Archer, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,500)
Wide Receivers
- Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers ($8,900)
- Martavis Bryant, Pittsburgh Steelers ($4,100)
- Torrey Smith, Baltimore Ravens ($5,400)
- Kelvin Benjamin, Carolina Panthers ($5,900)
- Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens ($5,000)
- Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals ($5,200)
- John Brown, Arizona Cardinals ($4,100)
- Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona Cardinals ($4,700)
- Markus Wheaton, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,100)
Tight Ends
- Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers ($5,500)
- Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens ($3,300)
- Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,900)
- Darren Fells, Arizona Cardinals ($3,000)
Defense/Special Teams
- Carolina Panthers ($3,500)
- Arizona Cardinals ($2,800)
- Pittsburgh Steelers ($3,000)
- Baltimore Ravens ($3,100)
Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.
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