NFL Playoff Predictions 2015: B/R's Wild Card Projections

The 2014 regular season has come and gone in the NFL.

Many things went more or less as we expected. The Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks are back in the playoffs. The Oakland Raiders and Cleveland Browns?

Not so much.

However, the 2014 campaign contained plenty of surprises as well, whether it was an Arizona Cardinals team that weathered storm after storm or an NFC South division that no one wanted to win.

It's a safe bet that there will be no such thing as a safe bet in this year's playoffs, which are sure to contain plenty of surprises of their own.

With that in mind, let's see if the Division Lead and National Lead Writers here at Bleacher Report can forecast the twists and turns of Wild Card Weekend with some predictions for the first slate of postseason games.

Editor's note: Some content has been updated following Friday's news that running back Le'Veon Bell of the Pittsburgh Steelers has been officially ruled out of Saturday's AFC Wild Card Game against the Baltimore Ravens, per Bob Labriola of Steelers.com.

Upset of the Week

Tom Puskar/Associated Press

Winner: None (7 votes)

Well, this is a first.

Granted, there has been a spot or two this season where a writer abstained from picking a game in this category.

And there were writers who picked one this week. AFC East Lead Writer Erik Frenz, for instance, thinks the never-say-die Cardinals have a chance to upend the Carolina Panthers Saturday:

"

The Carolina Panthers were a miracle to make the playoffs and are on a hot streak with wins in their last four games, but those wins all come against three NFC South opponents and the Cleveland Browns. They must now step outside the comfort of their own terrible division to play the Arizona Cardinals. Superior coaching should win out, despite the Cardinals' obvious lack of a quarterback. If the Cardinals can scheme up a game plan to keep Ryan Lindley safe, they should be able to come out with a win.

"

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown, on the other hand, wrote that a long playoff-victory drought may be set to end in the Midwest:

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I can see Bengals-Colts being a really ugly game. The Colts offense has fallen off a cliff since the bye week, and what I saw from T.Y. Hilton against the Titans in Week 17 wasn't enough to make me confident that he'll be able to shoulder a full load in this game. Even if he can, the offense hasn't really found a replacement No. 2 receiver for Reggie Wayne, who will continue to play banged up.

Do I feel super confident about the Bengals chances? Not really. Backing Andy Dalton in the playoffs makes me nervous. But even without a good pass rush, I think the Cincy pass defense is the best unit in this game, plus their run defense has been trending up and the Colts have no real threat there. Still, this is more of a pick against the Colts than it is for the Bengals. I think there are legitimate reasons to believe that the regression Indy has seen has been driven by personnel and injury attrition rather than just a random string of events.

"

Still, none of the above was this week's most popular choice.

So, Carolina (-7), Pittsburgh (-3), Indianapolis (-6) and Dallas (-7) it is, apparently.

Others receiving votes: Cincinnati Bengals (+6) over Indianapolis Colts (5 votes), Arizona Cardinals (+7) over Carolina Panthers (3 votes)

Blowout of the Week

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Winner: Dallas Cowboys over Detroit Lions (7 votes)

Just about every team playing this weekend has a weakness that leaves them in danger of being blown out.

The Cincinnati Bengals and Detroit Lions haven't won a playoff game in over two decades.

The Baltimore Ravens have a secondary held together with masking tape. Not even duct tape, mind you—masking tape.

The Steelers will be without Le'Veon Bell after he hyperextended his knee in Week 17, and the Bengals could be short-handed with wide receiver A.J. Green still in danger of sitting out with a concussion.

However, NFC East Lead Writer Brad Gagnon sees the Lions as the team in danger of being embarrassed in the Wild Card Round:

"

You know what they say about peaking at the right time. Maybe it's a cliche, but that factor is hard to ignore here. The Cowboys are red hot and the Lions offense has gone cold. Seriously. In December, Dallas averaged more than 40 points per game and gave up fewer than 20, while Detroit has averaged just 18.7 points the last three weeks. That Stafford-to-Johnson connection is scary, but they haven't been themselves and now they have to go on the road for the third consecutive week. Wrong place, wrong time.

"

The panel shares that vision, predicting a continuation of the Lions' postseason futility.

Others receiving votes: Pittsburgh Steelers over Baltimore Ravens (5 votes), Indianapolis Colts over Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes)

Mismatch of the Week

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Winner: Antonio Brown vs. Baltimore Ravens secondary (13 votes)

About that Baltimore secondary.

The Ravens have had all sorts of issues at the back end of their 23rd-ranked pass defense in 2014, including injuries and disappointing play from veterans such as cornerback Lardarius Webb.

If it could go wrong, it has.

Unfortunately, Robert Mays of Grantland sees that as a bad omen Saturday:

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Down the stretch, the Ravens managed to avoid teams that could take advantage of their completely depleted secondary. They won’t be so lucky next week, though. Pittsburgh’s win (in Week 17) means Antonio Brown goes up against corners whose names I’m not sure the Ravens’ coaching staff knows yet. Baltimore’s front seven can keep the team around in almost any game, but from a matchup point of view, the Ravens had to be rooting for Cincinnati.

"

Bleacher Report AFC North Lead Writer Andrea Hangst agrees with Mays:

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Regardless of the secondary the Pittsburgh Steelers are facing this week, it would have trouble keeping wide receiver Antonio Brown under wraps. But it's going to be even more difficult for the Ravens. Baltimore's secondary is a cobbled-together group that have combined for a mere 11 interceptions and is giving up nearly 250 passing yards per game. For this group to cover rookie Martavis Bryant let alone a powerhouse like Brown is going to be a tall order.

That's not to say that the Ravens defense cannot do anything to bring down Pittsburgh's passing offense. The defense has a combined 49 sacks this year, led by linebackers Elvis Dumervil and Terrell Suggs. It will be a struggle to keep quarterback Ben Roethlisberger upright. But on passing plays where pressure does not get to him, the Ravens' defensive backs don't have much of a chance to stop the Steelers' prodigious receivers.

"

Come to think of it, just about everyone agrees with Mays.

Others receiving votes: Indianapolis Colts defense vs. Andy Dalton (1 vote), Dallas Cowboys interior OL vs. Detroit Lions DL (1 vote)

Top QB Performance

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Winner: Ben Roethlisberger, Pittsburgh Steelers (11 votes)

The real "big guns" among NFL quarterbacks don't hit the field until the divisional round, when the likes of Tom Brady and Peyton Manning will be in action.

At least, that's the perception among many, as despite passing for a career-high 4,952 yards (tied for the NFL lead) in 2014, Pittsburgh's Ben Roethlisberger still doesn't get the recognition he deserves.

For as well as Le'Veon Bell has played for the Steelers in 2014, Bob Smizik of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette recently raised a very interesting point:

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The 2014 MVP was running back Le’Veon Bell, who had an outstanding season. It’s too early to determine whether Bell will play Saturday night against Baltimore after hyperextending his knee Sunday against Cincinnati. His absence would be a serious blow to the Steelers’ chances of beating the Ravens in the first round of the playoffs.

Consider for a moment what the feeling would be if it were Antonio Brown who hyperextended his knee. Brown just finished one of the greatest receiving seasons in NFL history. His 129 catches are second most in history; his 1,698 yards are sixth most.

Now consider what the feeling around town would be if it were Roethlisberger who was going to miss the upcoming game. Think about that for a second. Now think about who is the Steelers’ real MVP.

"

With Bell missing Saturday night's game, it will be the passing game that will have to carry the day.

And that portends a huge night for Roethlisberger against that porous Ravens secondary.

Others receiving votes: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes); Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes)

Top RB Performance

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Winner: Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (6 votes)

Sure, the NFL's leading rusher will be in action in the form of DeMarco Murray of the Dallas Cowboys, but Murray faces a Detroit Lions defense that ranks first in the NFL, giving up less than 70 yards per game on the ground.

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown went with the road less traveled, selecting a back who isn't even the starter for his own team:

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I think a lot of people will remember that the Colts got stomped by the Patriots, put two and two together and decide that Jeremy Hill is going to boss them around. Per Football Outsiders, the Colts have quietly strung together six straight games with a negative defensive run DVOA, though, which makes me believe that it's the other half of the Cincy run game (Giovani Bernard) I'd want. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in DVOA against passes at running backs. I expect a close game with some two-minute drills, and that leads me to believe that the passing-down back is the one I have faith in here.

"

McCown was spot-on about at least one thing.

Hill, who has topped 100 rushing yards in each of the past three games for the Bengals, was indeed the panel's pick as this week's running back set to break out.

Maybe he can tell the future.

Others receiving votes: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (3 votes); Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (3 votes); Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals (2 votes); Joique Bell, Detroit Lions (1 vote)

Top WR Performance

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

Winner: Antonio Brown, Pittsburgh Steelers (9 votes)

On some level it seems weird to predict that Antonio Brown of the Pittsburgh Steelers is going to have a big game.

After all, in 2014 it seems that's the only kind of game Brown has had.

In the history of the National Football League, only Marvin Harrison of the Indianapolis Colts has caught more passes in a season than Brown's 129 this year.

Now that Le'Veon Bell has been officially ruled out of this week's tilt with the Ravens, the Steelers are going to need Brown more than ever. But, head coach Mike Tomlin told Scott Brown of ESPN.com he has no doubt Brown will rise to the occasion:

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It's not haphazard that he rises up in moments. He works harder than he plays. I hope that is a blueprint for our younger guys, and I think it is, how to work and ultimately how to deliver for your teammates.

"

Not everyone is on board. NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier wrote that it's Indy's T.Y. Hilton for whom the biggest game is in store on Wild Card Weekend:

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A lot of guys are picking Antonio Brown, but I think the Ravens are going to do everything possible to keep him from gouging them. If Lardarius Webb isn't covering him, some combination of Justa Guy and Justa Notherguy will get the assignment. And there will be blitzing. I see Ben Roethlisberger throwing for 350 yards, but with a bunch of different targets getting 75-90 yards, including Brown. Meanwhile, Andrew Luck will have all day to throw, and Hilton will get open at the end of very long, very deep pass patterns.

"

However, nearly two-thirds of our experts believe the Steelers will come to find they like what Brown can do for them Saturday against their archrivals.

Others receiving votes: Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (4 votes); Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions (1 vote); T.Y. Hilton, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote)

Top TE Performance

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Winner: Greg Olsen, Carolina Panthers (7 votes)

Make no mistake, the Carolina Panthers are one of the worst division "champions" of all time. They are only the second team in NFL history to reach the playoffs despite losing more games than they won.

With that said, it's hard to blame those struggles on tight end Greg Olsen, who posted career highs in nearly every statistical category in 2014, including his first career 1,000-yard campaign.

With the Panthers set to host an Arizona Cardinals team that has had all sorts of issues defending tight ends the past couple of years, NFC West Lead Writer Sean Tomlinson believes Olsen is set for another big showing in the first game of the week:

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An 11-win team likely having to roll with Ryan Lindley is already a pretty awful playoff fate for the Arizona Cardinals. Then toss in one of the best defenses in the league facing its tight end kryptonite, and we have the makings of a one-and-done disaster. Panthers tight end Greg Olsen finished behind only Rob Gronkowski in receiving yards at his position during the regular season (1,008 yards). Now he's set to expose a Cardinals defense that gave up 139 yards and two touchdowns to Luke "two L's" Willson in Week 16, and surrendered a league worst 66.2 receiving yards per game to tight ends overall.

"

Boy, the Redbirds are just rolling in good news in the playoffs, huh?

What's next? Mumps?

Others receiving votes: Jason Witten, Dallas Cowboys (3 votes); Dwayne Allen, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes); Jermaine Gresham, Cincinnati Bengals (1 vote); Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (1 vote); Heath Miller, Pittsburgh Steelers (1 vote)

Top Defensive Performance

Bob Leverone/Associated Press

Winner: Charles Johnson, DE, Carolina Panthers (4 votes)

If you've been reading this article throughout the regular season, then you know this category was the stomping grounds of one Justin James Watt all season long.

However, with the Houston Texans done for the year, so is Watt's eligibility.

Cue the rejoicing from NFL National Lead Writer Mike Tanier:

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Hahahaha! You can't all huddle in a circle around J.J. Watt anymore, can you, my fellow panelists! You may not know this, but J.J. Watt is not a name but a title like Miss America: In the event J.J. Watt cannot perform the duties of J.J. Watt, Luke Kuechly inherits the title of J.J. Watt. Hey, I didn't make the rules, I just follow them. Kuechly will take away the Cardinals' wisp of a ground game and screen game, leaving them with fingers-crossed bombs and flea flickers. It will be a very good performance, and he will get a lot of attention for it.

"

Tanier may be onto something with Kuechly, but it was one of the 2013 NFL Defensive Player of the Year's teammates who earned the most votes from our writers.

The Panthers' late surge this year coincided with a jump in production from defensive end Charles Johnson, who racked up 4.5 sacks over the last six weeks of the season.

Johnson told Max Henson of the Panthers website that he's not ready to call it a season just yet. "I've been here too long. This is not the end. I don't want this to be the end," Johnson said. "We are on a roll, and we need to keep it going."

If our voters are correct, it doesn't look like he'll have to—at least until they get to Seattle.

Others receiving votes: Calais Campbell, DE, Arizona Cardinals (3 votes); Luke Kuechly, ILB, Carolina Panthers (2 votes); Jason Worilds, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes); Thomas Davis, OLB, Carolina Panthers (1 vote); Elvis Dumervil, OLB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Todd Bowles, DC, Arizona Cardinals (1 vote); Terrell Suggs, OLB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote)

Sleeper of the Week

Tony Avelar/Associated Press

Winner: Michael Floyd, WR, Arizona Cardinals (3 votes)

It's a story as old as the playoffs themselves.

The history of the NFL postseason is littered with anonymous players who came from nowhere to post game-winning performances.

Does the name David Tyree ring a bell?

So, it seemed fitting to poll our experts for a "sleeper" pick of sorts.

The responses were varied, with seven players on both sides of the ball garnering multiple votes.

NFL National Lead Writer Ty Schalter cast his vote for Arizona Cardinals wideout Michael Floyd, who exploded against the San Francisco 49ers last week after spending much of the 2014 season on the side of a milk carton:

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It seems like every Arizona quarterback has a favorite weapon. Carson Palmer leaned on Larry Fitzgerald. Drew Stanton favored John Brown. Ryan Lindley, who’ll be starting against the Carolina Panthers, hooked up with the underused, underrated Michael Floyd eight times for 153 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t think the Panthers are going to do any better job than the 49ers did of shutting Floyd down.

"

Two more scribes agreed, which was enough to get Floyd the nod in a vote spread all over the place.

Others receiving votes: Dan Herron, RB, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes); Markus Wheaton, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes); Bene Benwikere, CB, Carolina Panthers (2 votes); Donte Moncrief, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2 votes); Gavin Escobar, TE, Dallas Cowboys (2 votes); Martavis Bryant, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (2 votes)

Flop of the Week

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

"Winner": Andy Dalton, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (9 votes)

Of the 15 votes cast in the Wild Card Round for Flop of the Week, all but one went to a quarterback. The lone dissenter was NFL National Lead Writer Matt Miller, who selected the entire Arizona Cardinals team.

Like I said, the feel-good vibes around the Redbirds are palpable, baby!

AFC South Lead Writer Rivers McCown wrote that Matthew Stafford's late-season swoon isn't going to reverse itself in Dallas:

"

I'm not a big fan of these statistics touting Stafford's record against over .500 teams on the road or such nonsense—I think we can make our point about him in terms that isolate his contributions a bit more. Per Football Outsiders, Stafford has regressed from a 14.9% DVOA (10th) in 2011 all the way to a negative DVOA (-1.0%, 22nd) this season. That's bad for any quarterback, let alone one with two Pro Bowl wideouts and some big threats out of the backfield.

The real issue here may just be that Stafford and offensive coordinator Joe Lombardi aren't a good pairing for each other, but Stafford is going to be the one taking the heat if he can't deliver at least 24 points against a Dallas defense that's devoid of talent. Dallas' best pass-rusher, defensive tackle Henry Melton, will miss the game with injury. And yet, after watching from afar and seeing this team struggle to put up points on the Bears, Vikings and Packers down the stretch, I'm skeptical that Stafford will deliver here. And if he doesn't, well, six seasons, zero playoff wins. I expect the pitchforks to be out in force.

"

However, it was Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals who won the NFC South of prediction votes this week. As Bleacher Report's Cian Fahey reported, there are numbers to ramp up the anxiety level of fans in the Queen City as well:

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In three consecutive postseason losses, Dalton has completed 56.9 percent of his passes for 718 yards, one touchdown and six interceptions. While statistics can be misleading, especially at the quarterback position, Dalton's numbers accurately reflect his performances in those games.

"

If our writers are correct, then the playoff droughts in Detroit and Cincinnati aren't going to be ending as a new year dawns.

Others receiving votes: Matthew Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (3 votes); Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (1 vote); Joe Flacco, QB, Baltimore Ravens (1 vote); Arizona Cardinals (1 vote)