NFL Predictions Week 16: Can't-Miss Picks and Matchup Guide

Two AFC playoff hopefuls from both ends of the aisle highlight Week 16's best NFL picks.

One slight road underdog deserves credit as the rightful favorite against a wounded foe limping to the finish line. Everyone is too slow to forget past pedigrees and realize that this NFC adversary is down for the count.

Another contending club is not receiving nearly enough recognition heading into a matchup it is poised to demolish. The line may make sense on equal footing, but a barrel of quarterback injuries places a giant bull's-eye on this spread.

Matchup	Odds	Predicted Winner	Pick ATS
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (Thur.)	JAC -3.5	JAC	JAC
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington (Sat.)	PHI -7.5	PHI	PHI
San Diego Chargers at San Francisco 49ers (Sat.)	SF -1	SD	SD
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears	DET -7.5	DET	DET
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins	MIA -7.5	MIA	MIN
Baltimore Ravens at Houston Texans	BAL -5.5	BAL	BAL
Cleveland Browns at Carolina Panthers	CAR -3.5	CAR	CAR
Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints	NO -7	NO	ATL
Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	GB -11.5	GB	GB
Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT -3	KC	KC
New England Patriots at New York Jets	NE -11.5	NE	NE
New York Giants at St. Louis Rams	STL -5	STL	STL
Buffalo Bills at Oakland Raiders	BUF -5.5	BUF	BUF
Indianapolis Colts at Dallas Cowboys	DAL -2.5	DAL	DAL
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals	SEA -9.5	SEA	ARI
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (Mon.)	DEN -3.5	DEN	DEN

Odds courtesy of Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. on Wednesday, Dec. 17. 

Week 16 Can't-Miss Picks

San Diego Chargers (+1) at San Francisco 49ers

Would another 7-7 team with a minus-34 point differential and the No. 27-ranked offense be favored if it wasn't named the San Francisco 49ers?

In past years, the 49ers were awesome. They made three consecutive conference championship games, embellishing the franchise's storied history spanning back to the glory years under Joe Montana and Jerry Rice.

That's nice, and it's also completely irrelevant to gauging this particular football team, which is a subpar unit that has mustered 56 points over the past five weeks. Along with two beatdowns by the Seattle Seahawks, the 49ers lost to the 2-12 Oakland Raiders.

The San Diego Chargers are looking to terminate a losing streak of their own, but that will happen when forced to face the Denver Broncos and New England Patriots in consecutive weeks.

Despite falling short, San Diego's defense proved it can hang with anybody. Two juggernauts led by Tom Brady and Peyton Manning combined to produce 45 points, helping the Chargers quietly boast the league's ninth-best defense.

In that regard, these two California clubs are similar. Each wields a top-10 defense while underwhelming on the other end. After a torrid start, Philip Rivers has thrown seven touchdowns and eight picks through his last six contests, plagued by an ineffective ground game offering no support.

This one will get ugly, yet San Francisco won't operate at full strength. Chris Borland, the rookie sensation who has compiled 107 tackles at linebacker, will not suit up due to an ankle injury. Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio gave a grim prognosis, per the team's Twitter page.

The linebacker's absence creates a tremendous loss for a defense with no margin for error. Pro Football Focus displayed his importance over the latter portion of the season.

"

Since Week 7, Chris Borland leads all defenders with 41 run stops. 2nd-highest is D'Qwell Jackson with 26.

— Pro Football Focus (@PFF) December 11, 2014"

Meanwhile, Frank Gore (concussion) and Carlos Hyde (ankle) are both banged up, meaning an endorsement for San Francisco is an endorsement for Colin Kaepernick. You know, the same guy with a 55.0 completion percentage and 182.5 passing yards through the last six games.

Take this gift and roll with San Diego, the superior team saddled into the underdog role.

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) at Houston Texans

Dustin Bradford/Getty Images

The Baltimore Ravens have obtained eight of their nine victories by seven or more points, averaging a 14-point margin per win while losing only to winning clubs. Now, they face the Houston Texans, a squad woefully equipped to exploit their opponent's one vulnerability.

Neither of these AFC brigades can stop the pass. While Houston ranks No. 27 against the aerial assault, Baltimore fares even worse at No. 30. For the Texans, that shaky secondary has hurt them in going 1-6 against winning teams.

For the Ravens, they're smirking behind closed doors at the thought of facing Houston's fourth or fifth option under center. Ryan Fitzpatrick will miss the remainder of the season after breaking his leg last Sunday, joining Ryan Mallett on the shelf.

Rookie Tom Savage hardly impressed during his pro debut, going 10-of-19 for 127 yards and a pick. Maybe the newcomer could have strung together some results against a favorable matchup, but he's hurt, too.

ESPN's Adam Schefter reported the next quarterback to go down, leaving two unappealing choices.

After one Matt Schaub pick-six too many, Houston turned to Case Keenum last season, and he generated a subpar 55.2 completion percentage on 6.96 yards per attempt. Given a barrage of injuries, the desperate club signed the Texas native this week to return.

This is a double-digit win waiting to happen for Baltimore, who touts the NFL's third-best point differential and weighted Defensive-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), per Football Outsiders. It also ranks third in rushing defense, which will come in handy when Houston banks on Arian Foster carrying the offense.

Since Baltimore will travel to Texas, the oddsmakers feared setting the line too high. Yet even if this spread doubled, the Ravens would still warrant betting consideration this weekend.