2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 12

Top players are being injured, suspended, overrated and underrated. Basically, this means draft season is heating up.

The goal of the weekly Scouting Notebook is to inform, update and discuss all that's happening in the world of the NFL draft. We'll talk about A.J. Johnson being suspended while he's investigated in a sexual assault case. We'll talk about Marcus Peters and his rebound after being kicked out of Washington. We'll talk about players who are overrated and those who too many people are sleeping on as underrated prospects.

With another week of the regular season gone and the playoffs getting closer, here's one more look at the Scouting Notebook.

The Scout's Report

— Washington cornerback Marcus Peters was my top-ranked player at the position before being dismissed from the team, reportedly for conflicts with coaches. With more information coming in regarding his dismissal, Peters is still my No. 1 cornerback. According to sources close to the Washington program, the exact cause of his conflicts was such that his draft stock will be unaffected once the full story is told.

— Pro player comparisons can't be forced. It has to be something you see organically. That happened this week when breaking down Nebraska film and watching Randy Gregory and realizing he's a lot like Aldon Smith was at Missouri. The comparison has stuck for me.

— The 2015 quarterback class looks weak in terms of depth, and in talking to one executive this week I learned that his team and others view only three quarterbacks as Round 1 talents—Marcus Mariota, Jameis Winston and Connor Cook.

— The same executive added this: "(Connor) Cook is probably a lot closer to the Big Two than most people realize right now." Cook has said in one early interview that he intends to return to Michigan State, but that could quickly change if he's a projected top-15 pick.

— Florida pass-rusher Dante Fowler tweeted that he'll leave Florida early for the NFL draft, and that's a good decision. The 6'2", 261-pound Gator is a beast off the edge and has exceptionally long arms and burst for a player his size and stocky build.

— Braxton Miller has missed the 2014 season with a torn labrum in his throwing shoulder and may have lost his job to J.T. Barrett for 2015. I asked 10 NFL scouts and scouting directors how they viewed Miller right now, injury and all—every one of them replied that he's not a quarterback prospect. Running back and safety were the two positions mentioned as a transition for Miller if he hopes to play in the NFL.

— I also sent this question to the same 10 sources: "Should Todd Gurley declare for the NFL draft?" Every person replied with an affirmative. It seems to be a matter of when, not if, for Gurley and entering the 2015 draft.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. OT T.J. Clemmings, Pitt

A few weeks ago someone at Pitt tipped me off that tackle T.J. Clemmings would be one of the first Senior Bowl players announced. Until that point I hadn't spent time studying his game at all and had only seen glances of him early in the year. That meant catching up quickly in a short time.

The first thing I noticed was the top-tier upper-body strength Clemmings shows. He's also a very accomplished puncher and drive-blocker and is able to do a lot of damage with his hands. This is a much-improved player from what I saw in 2013 (his first year as an offensive lineman), and Clemmings is a legit contender to be a top-50 pick headed into the end of the season and beginning of draft prep.

4. ILB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State

Throughout the summer and early fall, it looked like there was no clear-cut No. 1 inside linebacker in the 2015 draft class. And then Benardrick McKinney started smashing folks again.

I had McKinney as a top-20 pick in the 2014 NFL draft had he declared—based largely on athleticism and upside—and in 2015 he's lived up to those expectations. A long, quick athlete, McKinney could play inside or outside 'backer in a 3-4 defense. With needs across the league at both spots, McKinney looks like a top-20 pick again in 2015.

3. CB Kevin Johnson, Wake Forest

I've spent many lines in this article talking about the weak look of the 2015 cornerback class—at least at this early stage. One player who stands to benefit from that is senior Kevin Johnson at Wake Forest.

Johnson has the size NFL teams want at 6'0" and 175 pounds. He also shows good aggressiveness and a fiery ability to attack the ball. His ability to plant-and-drive allows him to disrupt passes, and he's converted those into interceptions.

Keep an eye on Johnson. Once the hype from the underclassmen starts to settle, he'll be a popular name.

2. DE Nate Orchard, Utah

Premium matchups are a huge part of scouting as the season winds down, and last week saw Utah vs. Stanford—and left tackle Andrus Peat (Stanford) against Nate Orchard (Utah). The game, and the boost in draft stock, went to Orchard.

The 6'4", 255-pound senior edge-rusher can play with his hand in the dirt or standing up, and he has the length and first-step quickness to be a nuisance for tackles in space. Orchard did struggle a little in the run game, but when Stanford came out throwing he stepped up his game and was a huge difference-maker against a tackle I've seen projected as a top-15 pick.

1. C Cam Erving, Florida State

One week ago Cam Erving was featured here as a player whose draft stock was falling. A move to center and an excellent game against the Miami Hurricanes has put him back in the win column.

Erving had his best game of the 2014 season on the inside. His snaps were on point, he was poised and his athleticism was able to shine on the interior. This is his most natural position and where I'll be ranking him for the rest of the draft season.

---

1. QB Brett Hundley, UCLA

Brett Hundley came into the year as a top-10 player and competing for the top quarterback spot with Marcus Mariota and Jameis Winston. And while Mariota and Winston have shown improvement, Hundley has regressed. This may sound odd coming off a strong stretch of games from the UCLA quarterback, but his play has not been as good as advertised this season.

When watching coaches film of the UCLA offense, too often I see Hundley holding the ball waiting for reads and wide receivers to become open. His instincts and awareness are questionable, and too often he appears to be thinking and not playing. At quarterback, that can be devastating.

There is no doubting that Hundley is athletic and has a nice arm, but the mental side of the game is questionable from him. That makes him more of a late second-rounder and less of a top-tier player.

2. OLB Frank Clark, Michigan

The quickest way to guarantee a move down this board is to get in trouble off the field. Michigan's Frank Clark did that, and he's been dismissed from the team.

Clark was kicked off the team amid reports of a domestic disturbance that led to Clark's arrest. The serious nature of the crime and the evidence on scene led Michigan to act quickly. NFL teams are likely to do the same in removing Clark from their draft boards.

3. QB Dak Prescott, Mississippi State

My No. 1 requirement for a quarterback in the NFL is accuracy—and Dak Prescott doesn't have that at a pro level given his current game film.

Prescott will draw comparisons to Tim Tebow—some of it due to the offense he plays in and some based on his skill set. That's not exactly the NFL player (or former NFL player) you want to be compared to as a college quarterback. Prescott flashed early in the season, but as the SEC schedule has heated up, Prescott has been exposed as a pure passer. The accuracy has to get better for him to be seen as a better prospect.

4. OT Andrus Peat, Stanford

Andrus Peat is one of the most physically gifted offensive tackles in college football, and someday he may be a top-10 pick. But against Utah defensive end Nate Orchard, he was abused.

Peat is a long, aggressive athlete, and Orchard used that against him by setting him up with outside speed and using his own length to keep Peat from getting his hands on him. Learning the timing of punching and sliding his feet will take time for Peat, who, again, has huge potential but looks more and more like a player whose technique isn't ready for the NFL as it stands today.

5. TE Nick O'Leary, Florida State

Nick O'Leary is a good college football player. I'm just not sure he'll be a good NFL player. 

O'Leary isn't a true tight end, but is more like a less athletic James Casey or Delanie Walker. His best role will be as an H-back (playing some fullback, some tight end), and that's not a role every NFL team uses. He's been typecast, and that limits his value in the pros. 

O'Leary shows up on film and is an impact player in games, but a lack of athleticism and size will make him more of a niche player in the pros.

Scouting Report: Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Running Back Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin (6'0", 207 lbs)

Strengths

• Ideal build with good musculature and long legs.
• Has a fast first gear and can pull away from defenders at the line of scrimmage.
• Very productive back with limited injuries. Great conditioning.
• Knows how to get small to slide through creases and cracks with the ball.
• Ideal back for zone-running scheme due to one-cut vision and speed.
• Reads outside blocks well and makes cuts off shoulder of linemen.
• Agile in space and can make one defender miss in space.
• Will outrun defenders to the corner and moves very well laterally.
   

Weaknesses

• Fumbled twice in cold-weather game vs. Nebraska (2014).
• Has never been featured as a receiver or blocker, limited third-down reps.
• Doesn't run through arm tackles despite upright running style.
• Is a fast runner, but doesn't show top-end burst. Tends to stay at one speed.
• Inside run vision is underdeveloped and requires him to stop his feet behind line of scrimmage.
• Plays in a system that has consistently produced 1,000-yard rushers but not NFL production.
• Must prove he's better than his blockers and not a system-only back.

Pro Player Comparison: DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys

Scouting Dictionary

"In phase"

I have to give credit to my buddy Daniel Jeremiah at NFL Network (and his podcast) for putting this phrase in my head last week. What does it mean, exactly?

The way I was taught—by my head coach who was a defensive assistant under Bob Stoops at Kansas State—"in phase" is when a cornerback (or any defensive back) is in man coverage and is running with the receiver in a position to make a play on the ball. Some might call this "hip pocket," but we were taught to call it in phase during film breakdowns and when coaching up our defensive backs.

As with most scouting terminology, saying a cornerback excels in phase is much simpler than elaborating on his ability to run with wide receivers in man coverage and keep himself in position to make a play on the ball. 

The Big Board

The NFL season is inching away, and we're getting closer to the end of the season. Here's an updated sneak peek at my new Big Board, with a full top 64 players and top 10 at each position, landing after Week 12:

Rank	Player	Pos.	College
1	Marcus Mariota	QB	Oregon
2	Jameis Winston	QB	FSU
3	Randy Gregory	DE	Nebraska
4	Amari Cooper	WR	Alabama
5	Leonard Williams	DT	USC
6	Shane Ray	DE	Missouri
7	Cedric Ogbuehi	OT	Texas A&M
8	Brandon Scherff	OT	Iowa
9	Landon Collins	SS	Alabama
10	Vic Beasley	OLB	Clemson
11	Shaq Thompson	OLB	Washington
12	DeVante Parker	WR	Louisville
13	Alvin Dupree	DE	Kentucky
14	Marcus Peters	CB	Washington
15	Todd Gurley	RB	Georgia
16	Kevin White	WR	West Virginia
17	Gerod Holliman	FS	Louisville
18	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
19	Shawn Oakman	DE	Baylor
20	La'el Collins	OT	LSU
21	Michael Bennett	DT	Ohio State
22	Benardrick McKinney	ILB	Miss. State
23	Dante Fowler	DE	Florida
24	Devin Funchess	WR	Michigan
25	Jalen Collins	CB	LSU

Parting Shots

10. The 2015 Reese's Senior Bowl is shaping up to be a good one. The Senior Bowl committee announced more accepted invitations on Nov. 17. Here is the complete list of accepted invitations thus far:

Player	Pos	College
Adrian Amos	S	Penn State
Shane Carden	QB	East Carolina
Joe Cardona	LS	Navy
T.J. Clemmings	OT	Pitt
Carl Davis	DT	Iowa
Kurtis Drummond	FS	Michigan State
Alvin Dupree	DE	Kentucky
Trey Flowers	DE	Arkansas
Senquez Golson	CB	Ole Miss
Hroniss Grasu	C	Oregon
Geneo Grissom	DE	Oklahoma
Justin Hardy	WR	East Carolina
Mike Hull	OLB	Penn State
David Johnson	RB	Northern Iowa
Jeremy Langford	RB	Michigan State
Lorenzo Mauldin	OLB	Louisville
Ty Montgomery	WR	Stanford
Robert Myers	OG	Tennessee St.
Nate Orchard	DE	Utah
Cody Prewitt	FS	Ole Miss
Quinten Rollins	CB	Miami (OH)
D'Joun Smith	CB	Florida Atlantic
Preston Smith	DE	Miss. State
Jaquiski Tartt	SS	Samford
Louis Trinca-Pasat	DT	Iowa

9. Last week I linked you to the first story from USC cornerback Josh Shaw since he was suspended by the school for lying about an injury suffered jumping off a balcony. Oddly enough, Shaw has been reinstated by USC and is looking to make an impact both on the field and on his draft stock in the coming weeks. He'll be a very interesting player to watch as his senior season winds down.

8. It's never fun to spend two spots in the article highlighting off-field issues, but sometimes you have to. That's the case this week as A.J. Johnson has been suspended from Tennessee while he's investigated in a sexual assault case.

Johnson and teammate Michael Williams have been suspended while a "forcible rape" investigation is underway, according to The Tennessean. It's possible both players will be cleared of any wrongdoing and return to the football field, but this is a very disturbing allegation—and one that NFL scouts and coaches shouldn't make excuses for. If Johnson and teammate Williams are found responsible, his football playing days should be over.

7. Michigan State quarterback Connor Cook said in an interview that he "intends to return to Michigan State" for his senior season. Even if that's a statement made way too soon, I'm removing Cook from my Big Board (and thus from any future mock drafts) until his intentions are known.

I have Cook as a first-round quarterback should he decide to enter the NFL early.

6. The NFL draft has always been shrouded in a little bit of mystery on the team level, so I try to be as transparent as possible in everything that I do. The hope is that will lead to less confusion and more of an understanding in how the draft process plays out. One area where I see many people get confused is regarding draft grades, so I want to take a minute to explain how this works for my system.

In-season: Players are evaluated as time permits and given a "talent grade." This is not a final draft ranking or grade and is a very fluid evaluation. Injury, good play/bad play and off-field issues can affect this grade.

Postseason: Players are studied, not just evaluated, and given a final ranking. I always release my final rankings within the week before the draft. This is the complete, final grade on each player and is the analysis that should be judged down the line.

5. Another big part of the grading system is evaluating marquee matchups. Like mentioned above, any time you get to see an Andrus Peat vs. Nate Orchard meeting, you want to highlight it and make sure to view it several times. I will put extra emphasis on these games, and so will NFL scouts. Remember the great Khalil Mack vs. Ohio State game early in 2013? When you get a chance to evaluate a player against another NFL talent in the college game, you have to take it and weigh it properly.

Here's a game I'll be watching closely this week: Iowa left tackle Brandon Scherff vs. Nebraska defensive end Randy Gregory. Two top-10 players going right at each other all night.

4. Melvin Gordon had a record-breaking performance against Nebraska, and I wore out the rewind and fast-forward buttons on my laptop reviewing the film from the game this week.

Gordon was productive and took advantage of some bad mistakes from the Nebraska defense—and we should all be praising the Wisconsin offensive line for its work on the day. The thing about the game for Gordon is that he did nothing new in the performance that makes an evaluator take a second look at his traits or makes you change your mind.

I love having a player prove me wrong. Jameis Winston did it this year. Johnny Manziel did it last summer. But Gordon's weaknesses and strengths are the same regardless of how many yards he ran for against Nebraska. If you loved Gordon pre-Nebraska, the game was a testimony for you. If you didn't like Gordon or were neutral, it was more of the same with a bigger number at the end.

3. Point No. 4 leads perfectly into point No. 3—NFL teams do not care if a player wins the Heisman Trophy or where the media ranks a player heading into the draft. I will have scouts ask me if I've seen a player and want to compare notes, but the actual ranking process isn't one I've ever had a team care about in my years doing this.

The idea that analysts in the media can drive up a player's stock—or drive it down—is largely artificial. There could be a rogue general manager out there who loves the work of Daniel Jeremiah and puts emphasis in his opinion, but these guys are paid millions of dollars a year to make decisions, and they're going to trust their own eyes first and foremost.

2. Growing up as a draft fan, one of my favorite things was seeing the different opinions from Mel Kiper and the other draft analysts each fall, winter and spring and then comparing that to what NFL teams did. That's somehow become jaded thanks to the spread of social media and the Internet. It used to be that when two people disagreed, you tried to learn from that and understand why they didn't see eye-to-eye on a player's value or potential. Now we belittle anyone who disagrees and become defensive and personal when doing so.

Disagreeing with someone's draft grade on a player is a good thing—as long as you do it respectfully. Some of the biggest misses I've had in my entire career could have been avoided if I'd just listened to someone telling me their side of the evaluation. So if you're looking to break into this business or are already here and hoping to refine your process, start out by being a gracious listener and try to learn from every opportunity.

1. Let's end this article with something fun, shall we?

So much of an evaluator's time is spent ranking and grading players, but sometimes you just love watching a player on film regardless of how his skill set translates to the NFL. Who are my favorite players to watch so far in 2014? 

Pos.	Player	Pos.	Player
QB	Marcus Mariota, Oregon	DE	Randy Gregory, Nebraska
RB	Todd Gurley, Georgia	DE	Shane Ray, Missouri
RB	David Cobb, Minnesota	DT	Danny Shelton, Washington
WR	Amari Cooper, Alabama	DT	Malcom Brown, Texas
WR	Rashad Greene, FSU	LB	Eric Kendricks, UCLA
TE	Maxx Williams, Minnesota	LB	Eric Striker, Oklahoma
T	Brandon Scherff, Iowa	LB	Hau'oli Kikaha, Washington
T	Ronnie Stanley, Notre Dame	CB	Marcus Peters, Washington
G	A.J. Cann, South Carolina	CB	Quandre Diggs, Texas
G	Josue Matias, FSU	S	Gerod Holliman, Louisville
C	Hroniss Grasu, Oregon	S	Cody Prewitt, Ole Miss

Come back next week for an updated mock draft, more news and notes and a ton of updates after a great weekend in college football.