2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 11

November is here. The weather has turned cold, the days are getting shorter, and around the NFL, area scouts are putting grades on college seniors, agents are talking to underclassmen about declaring for the 2015 NFL draft, and coaches are holding on trying to win games. 

As draft season really begins this month, it's time to look at the NFL teams already out of playoff contention that are looking ahead to the upcoming draft. It's also time to look at the players who are earning a move up and down my Big Board as the season gets close to the end of the regular season. 

With the latest news, rumors and a look at updated player rankings, here's the Week 11 Scouting Notebook.

The Scout's Report

— Louisville saw Calvin Pryor, Marcus Smith and Teddy Bridgewater drafted in the first round of the 2014 draft and could see a high number drafted in Round 1 of 2015. Sources close to the team tell me they're prepared to lose free safety Gerod Holliman and defensive tackle Sheldon Rankins as underclassmen. 

— Another top Louisville prospect—wide receiver DeVante Parker—has regained his Round 1 status around the NFL. Three scouts from different teams all confirmed a first-round grade on Parker now that he's healthy.

— Iowa offensive tackle Brandon Scherff has seen his stock slip in some media rankings, but what does the NFL think of his play this year? I spoke to one offensive line coach who attributes Scherff's "small decline" this year on rushing back from a knee procedure done in early September: "(Fans) don't understand he played days after having surgery! It's really f----d up."

— Mack Brown had a long-standing legacy of not losing underclassmen to the NFL at the University of Texas, but Charlie Strong could lose his best underclassmen this year. Players I've spoken to at Texas believe defensive tackle Malcolm Brown will declare for the 2015 draft in order to take care of his wife and two children. Brown currently projects as a top-75 pick.

— Nebraska head coach Bo Pelini said he thinks top-ranked defensive end Randy Gregory will return to school for his senior season. That may indeed happen, but it's worth noting that NFL sources tell me teams gave Gregory a Round 1 grade after his redshirt sophomore season in 2013. He's currently ranked inside my top 10 and has an Aldon Smith element to his game and upside. 

— A source close to Fresno State tells me free safety Derron Smith and wide receiver Josh Harper have both received and will accept Senior Bowl invites.

— Baylor quarterback Bryce Petty has been invited to the Senior Bowl, but my sources indicate he's torn on whether or not to attend. My advice? Go. Petty has a chance to make himself serious money by standing out in a week of practices at Mobile in a weak senior quarterback class.

— There is no clear-cut No. 1 cornerback in the 2015 class now that Marcus Peters has been dismissed from Washington. As one college scouting director told me this week, Louisville's Charles Gaines may be the best of the bunch. The 5'11" Gaines has enough size and instincts to be an early starter in the NFL.

— The senior tight end class isn't great for 2015, which is why one area scout I spoke to believes redshirt sophomore Maxx Williams (Minnesota) may come out early. Williams, if he were to declare, would be my top-ranked tight end.

— Decisions can change this time of year, but a source close to Oklahoma wide receiver Sterling Shepard tells me the junior is leaving school for the 2015 NFL draft.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. DE Cedric Reed, Texas

Fans and coaches at Texas have been waiting for defensive end Cedric Reed to break out, and as of late, he has. Reed was on fire against West Virginia, posting three sacks and 12 tackles in the game. Reed is an intriguing prospect with ideal size, length and strength, but he does go through hot-and-cold streaks. Ending the year on a hot streak will have a nice boost on his prospects.

4. DE Shane Ray, Missouri

Shane Ray has often been on the receiving end of a boost up my board this year, but after another week of film review, he's rising again. 

Ray currently ranks as my No. 12 overall player and the No. 2 edge player in the class (behind Randy Gregory). His play against SEC left tackles has been impressive, and Ray is proving to be the ideal body type and athlete to stand up and play the edge in a 3-4 defense. It wouldn't be a surprise to see Ray end up a top-five player by draft time.

3. DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State 

Ohio State's Michael Bennett started the season ranked as my No. 1 defensive tackle but saw his ranking dip due to inconsistent play. That changed against Michigan State. Bennett showed the promise and production that made him a high-ranking preseason player.

Bennett has to continue to play at the level he showed in the rivalry game, but against a top-tier opponent, he showed the pass-rushing speed and instincts needed to be a starting 3-technique tackle in the pros.

2. CB Jalen Collins, LSU

Without a clear-cut No. 1 cornerback in the 2015 class, many eyes will be turning to Jalen Collins and the work he did against Amari Cooper of Alabama. Collins has ideal size (6'2") and showed the foot speed, agility and instincts to hang with college football's best receiver for four quarters. 

LSU has become something of a defensive back factory for the NFL as of late, and Collins could be next in a long line of top-tier prospects to hit the NFL next year.

1. OT Jack Conklin, Michigan State

Jack Conklin—like Notre Dame's Ronnie Stanley—hasn't been featured on any rankings this season because of his status as a redshirt sophomore. I've long expected, and still expect, that Conklin will return to school for another season (or two).

That said, Conklin's play this year has to be mentioned. Turn on the Ohio State film, and he was dominant on the edge. Same for his work against Randy Gregory of Nebraska. Conklin has taken on two of the best defensive linemen (Gregory, Ohio State's Joey Bosa) and won. That will get his name on NFL short lists very quickly.

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1. OT Cedric Ogbuehi, Texas A&M

I'm a fan of Cedric Ogbuehi as a prospect, but there is no doubting he has struggled to make the transition to left tackle as seamlessly as expected. Ogbuehi will move back to right tackle this coming week due to an injury to right tackle Germain Ifedi, and this will answer the question of whether he's just uncomfortable on the left side or if there's more to his struggles.

Ogbuehi ranks as my No. 1 tackle right now—as I believe athleticism at tackle is a high priority—but his stock is very much on the fence right now.

2. CB P.J. Williams, Florida State

P.J. Williams is long (6'0", well built at 196 lbs), runs like a horse and has the hands to be a ballhawk at the next level. The only problem is he's struggled in man coverage as of late.

Williams had a down game against Louisville, putting his struggles on notice. Follow that up with a down game against Notre Dame, and you have to worry about his transition skills and instincts to play man coverage in the NFL. I do like Williams' athletic upside, but he needs work before he's ready to be a starting NFL cornerback.

Teams drafting Williams early will be betting on his athletic upside and not his current skills.

3. QB Everett Golson, Notre Dame

Everett Golson does a lot of things well as a quarterback. His touch and accuracy are impressive. He's athletic enough to make plays inside and outside of the pocket. His vision over the middle of field and when the pocket breaks down are promising. But turnovers and poor decisions are becoming a consistent issue since the Florida State game three weeks ago.

Golson has thrown seven interceptions in the past three games, something that works firmly against his early-season profile as an efficient passer. Golson has one year of eligibility left at Notre Dame, and based on the last three games, he would be wise to return to school and continue to improve.

4. WR Devin Funchess, Michigan

Michigan's Devin Funchess has made a nice transition from being a flex tight end at Michigan to widening out at wide receiver in 2014. That isn't why he's moving down on this week's Big Board. Drops are.

Funchess still goes through bouts of inconsistency as a pass-catcher. It looks to be more of a concentration issue as opposed to a skill set limitation, so it is fixable, but he has to become more of a hands-catcher in traffic and on 50/50 balls if he's to become a jump ball receiver in the NFL. 

5. OT Cam Erving, Florida State

Cam Erving has been on the receiving end of a big drop down the Big Board so far this year. One thing that may save his stock is a move inside to guard or center before heading to the NFL. Erving doesn't have the lateral agility and strength to handle an edge-rusher in space, but moving inside where he can play with leverage and allow for shorter, stronger punches instead of the long reaches needed on the outside would definitely be in his best interest.

Scouting Report: Jake Fisher, Oregon

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Ted S. Warren/Associated Press

Tackle Jake Fisher, Oregon (6'6", 299 lbs)

Strengths

• Passes eyeball test with long arms, high waist and lean muscle.
• Plays with quick, light feet when moving off the line of scrimmage in any direction.
• Has shown strength and mentality to be a pancake blocker.
• Knows how to get aggressive in the run game and is a strong finisher.
• Exceptional leader on Oregon offensive line.
• Has the mobility to attack the perimeter as a run blocker and get depth in passing game.
• Still has upside to improve as a technician with NFL coaching.
• First season starting at left tackle after playing right tackle previously.
   

Weaknesses

• Injured left leg cost him two games during 2014 season.
• Can struggle with pad height and leverage in run game.
• Can struggle to reset his base if met with a power rusher.
• Will lose his inside shoulder if overextended off the line of scrimmage.
• Quickness and balance are NFL average. 

Pro Player Comparison: Sebastian Vollmer, New England Patriots

Scouting Dictionary

"Climb the Pocket"

Everyone loves evaluating quarterbacks and talking about evaluating quarterbacks in this era of football. Talk about quarterbacks long enough, and you'll hear scouts talk about the player's ability to "climb the pocket." 

The pocket refers to the protected area the offensive line generates on a pass play. The offensive tackles fan out, the guards and center hold the middle, and the elongated crescent develops in front of the quarterback. This is called the pocket. Climbing that pocket means the ability to step up from the quarterback's drop step when pressured off the edge.

A good edge-rusher on defense will aim at the quarterback's shoulder, and when that defender beats the offensive tackle, that quarterback must climb the pocket to give himself room and time to throw. Drew Brees and Peyton Manning are great examples of quarterbacks who excel at climbing the pocket.

The Big Board

The NFL season is inching away, and we're getting closer to the end of the season. With Week 11 in front of us, here's a look at an early November top-25 board (including expected underclassmen to declare).

Rank	Player	Pos	College
1	Marcus Mariota	QB	Oregon
2	Jameis Winston	QB	FSU
3	Leonard Williams	DT	USC
4	Amari Cooper	WR	Alabama
5	Randy Gregory	DE	Nebraska
6	Todd Gurley	RB	Georgia
7	Cedric Ogbuehi	OT	Texas A&M
8	Brandon Scherff	OT	Iowa
9	Landon Collins	SS	Alabama
10	Shane Ray	DE	Missouri
11	Vic Beasley	3-4 OLB	Clemson
12	Shaq Thompson	4-3 OLB	Washington
13	DeVante Parker	WR	Louisville
14	Alvin Dupree	DE	Kentucky
15	Marcus Peters	CB	Washington
16	Kevin White	WR	West Virginia
17	Gerod Holliman	FS	Louisville
18	Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
19	Shawn Oakman	DE	Baylor
20	La'el Collins	OT	LSU
21	Michael Bennett	DT	Ohio State
22	Benadrick McKinney	ILB	Miss. State
23	Dante Folwer Jr.	DE	Florida
24	Brett Hundley	QB	UCLA
25	Devin Funchess	WR	Michigan

Parting Shots

10. USC cornerback Josh Shaw was a potential top-50 player before the season began, but a lie told to the university and police about how he injured both ankles led to his suspension from the team. Shaw hasn't played this season, but he did finally speak about the lie that changed his season. The Los Angeles Times has the story, and it's worth a read.

9. The 2015 Reese's Senior Bowl is roughly two months away, and we're already getting news on accepted invitations. The process is as follows: The Senior Bowl sends an invitation to the player's school, and the player can then accept or decline the invite. Once an invite is accepted, the player can withdraw from attending up until the day before his scheduled travel (and this does happen). Here's a look at the first 11 players who have accepted invitations to the 2015 game.

Player	Pos	School
Adrian Amos	SS	Penn State
Shane Carden	QB	East Carolina
Joseph Cardona	LS	Navy
Carl Davis	DT	Iowa
Kurtis Drummond	FS	Michigan State
Geneo Grissom	LB	Oklahoma
Justin Hardy	WR	East Carolina
Mike Hull	LB	Penn State
David Johnson	RB	Northern Iowa
Nate Orchard	DE	Utah
Jaquiski Tartt	FS	Samford

8. Speaking of the Senior Bowl, here's something I tend to say every year at this time—if you are not projected to be a top-15 pick in the draft, get your butt to Mobile, Alabama, and participate. The Senior Bowl is a once-in-a-lifetime experience and a legitimate chance for a prospect to make himself money and elevate his draft stock. NFL teams want to see players compete. This is a proving ground where all 32 teams are heavily represented, and players can make an impact.

7. NFL wide receivers keep getting bigger, but look around the league right now, and you'll notice a domination by smaller wide outs. Look at the numbers and size of these stars of 2014.

Receiver	Catches	Catch Rank	Height
Antonio Brown	79	1	5'10"
Golden Tate	66	2	5'10"
Emmanuel Sanders	62	4	5'11"
TY Hilton	56	7	5'9"
Julian Edelman	54	12	5'10"
Steve Smith, Sr.	49	15	5'9"
Brandin Cooks	48	18	5'10"
Jeremy Maclin	48	18	6'0"

And if you read this thinking about touchdowns, Green Bay's Randal Cobb leads all receivers with eight touchdowns. He's 5'10".

6. Jerry Hughes' success in Buffalo after having a minimal impact during his three seasons in Indianapolis (where he recorded just five sacks and seven starts) has been a hot topic over the last season, especially after he posted 10.0 sacks for the Bills last year.

Here's the deal, though—Hughes wasn't a "bust" in Indianapolis, but he was a bad draft pick. The Colts made him a first-round pick and expected he would replace Dwight Freeney or Robert Mathis. But the perennial Pro Bowlers at outside linebacker never regressed to a point where Hughes could get the reps needed to make an impact. Now that he's a starter in Buffalo, he's proving his talent.

5. It's that time of year again when it must be restated that the NFL draft is a process. I begin looking at players in May—as soon as one draft ends—and my evaluations of those players is likely to change with new information (games, talks with coaches, etc.). The grade given to a player before the season was a projection based on previous seasons and upside. The grade given to a player now is based on as much of his season as I've seen. The final grade given in late April? That's the one I write my name by in ink and own for better or worse.

4. Ryan Tannehill and Robert Griffin III were drafted in 2012 under the new rookie wage scale. That means they were signed to four-year contracts with a team option for the fifth year. That option has to be picked up this summer if the team wants to keep the quarterbacks for the 2016 season. 

Based on what they've shown thus far, neither Miami nor Washington should do more than pick up that option for one more season at best. Neither quarterback has clearly established himself as a viable long-term starting option, and the biggest mistake a franchise can make is committing big money to a quarterback that hasn't proven himself.

3. I've been receiving more questions than usual from readers about potential trades up in the first round. I promise I'm not ignoring these questions, but mid-November is honestly too early in the process to know which teams will target trades up. Let's consider a few things.

- Coaching changes haven't happened.

- Free agency hasn't happened.

- The draft process is really only just starting, and no underclassmen have declared yet.

The 2015 draft class is still a mystery, as only the senior prospects are guaranteed to be available. There will be plenty of time to talk about trades and best fits, but right now, it's no more than an educated guess.

2. No. 1-ranked Mississippi State takes on No. 5 Alabama this weekend, and it's a must-watch for football fans and evaluators. That said, the Bulldogs don't have many top-tier draft prospects for 2015. Middle linebacker Benardrick McKinney is a legitimate first-rounder, but the next-best prospect that's eligible for 2015 would be quarterback Dak Prescott, and he's looked at as more of an NFL project.

Alabama will dominate the game in terms of draft prospects on the field, but Mississippi State has the better record and higher ranking.

1. There are a lot of things off the field to make folks not like Jameis Winston. On the field? Not so much. Winston is a near-flawless passer and has a coolness under pressure that's contagious. He's also proving to be a leader in taking blame for the team's struggles instead of passing the buck.

Winston may be a knucklehead, but there will be 32 general managers looking at his comeback wins, his ability to shake off early struggles in a game and how well he's able to progress within a game and adjust to the defense. It'll be very easy for a team picking early in Round 1 to fall in love with Florida State's leader.