2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 10

There is never a dull moment in the land of NFL draft coverage. In what is normally a quiet week in November, two top prospects (Marcus Peters, Stefon Diggs) were disciplined by their schools, a top-tier tackle prospect (Cedric Ogbuehi) is moving back to the right side due to injury and the play of senior quarterbacks continues to disappoint on film. 

Who moves up and down this week? We'll dive into that, check in on an updated Mock Draft and hit on the latest news, rumors and insights from around the NFL.

The Scout's Report

— I reported in this space last week that Washington cornerback Marcus Peters wasn't liked by head coach Chris Petersen, per an area scout assigned to the school. Peters was dismissed from the team on Thursday morning, per The Seattle Times. This could affect his draft stock once assistant coaches and head coach Petersen start talking to NFL scouts about Peters, but general managers tend to deal more in traits and upside versus on-the-ground riffs with coaches. Peters was my top-ranked cornerback this season and a potential top-10 pick. His stock is holding until more information can be gained.

— Staying at the University of Washington, two-way star Shaq Thompson had a season-high 174 yards as a running back against Colorado last week and will start in the backfield again this week against UCLA. Thompson's home in the NFL is still at outside linebacker, though. One scout I talked to this week said Thompson is the only 4-3 outside linebacker they rank in the first round currently.

— This week I polled a group of area scouts and college scouting directors about the weakest position in the 2015 senior draft class. The replies:

Two replied with interior offensive line, three replied with quarterback and five replied with defensive back.

— Marcus Mariota is my top-ranked player overall, but not everyone agrees. From an NFL college scouting director who has seen every Mariota throw at Oregon: "If the struggles of (Colin) Kaepernick and Cam (Newton) don't terrify you when looking at Mariota, you're missing the big picture." I see Mariota as a more accurate passer than Kaepernick and showing better field vision than Newton as a prospect.

— The NFL Scouting Combine isn't until late February, but scouts are already raving about the players who will own the event. Shane Ray (DE, Missouri), Sammie Coates (WR, Auburn) and Shawn Oakman (DE, Baylor) were all mentioned as future top performers by one scout I spoke to this week.

— Ole Miss wide receiver Laquon Treadwell was compared to Dez Bryant by one scout I spoke to this week. The dislocated ankle and broken fibula suffered against Auburn will end his 2014 season, but our own Will Carroll has a great take on his rehab and recovery process, which should take around four months. 

— Notre Dame quarterback Everett Golson has been impressive this year. As one general manager told me this week, "If he keeps playing like this, he won't have a choice but to come out." Golson is a second-round projection right now, but a weak quarterback class and a big need at the position could push him up the board.

— Redshirt sophomore Notre Dame tackle Ronnie Stanley hasn't entered my Big Board yet because he's a junior that I didn't expect to consider the NFL draft this year, but he'll be making the jump soon. Stanley, according to one scout, is the best offensive tackle in college football.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. CB Quandre Diggs, Texas

The Texas defense has been on fire as of late, and cornerback Quandre Diggs is a big part of that evolution. Diggs is the chess piece defensive coordinator Vance Bedford needed, and his ability to take away wide receivers in man and zone coverage has been on display against high-octane passing attacks throughout the month of October.

Diggs doesn't have ideal size (5'10", 204 lbs), but is versatile enough to play inside cornerback or a nickel safety position in the pros.

4. WR DeVante Parker, Louisville

A healthy DeVante Parker is one of the best wide receivers in college football, and that's what's been on display since he returned two weeks ago.

Parker is a top-notch athlete with legitimate low-4.4 speed, a 36.5-inch vertical jump, a 10'10" broad jump and strength numbers that rival most linebackers. Parker is also a very smart receiver, showing exceptional vision, body control and concentration. Even with a new quarterback now that Teddy Bridgewater is in the NFL, Parker is producing big numbers and showing the traits that make him a first-round prospect.

3. FS Gerod Holliman, Louisville

Louisville put the first safety drafted into the NFL last year with Calvin Pryor, and they may do so again this year (or next) depending on when Gerod Holliman declares for the draft.

The redshirt sophomore safety already has 10 interceptions on the season and has recorded a pick in every game except one—at Clemson. Holliman isn't just lucky, either. He's showing exceptional ball skills, instincts, football IQ and the closing speed and hands to get in position to make these plays.

It may be sacrilegious to compare anyone to Ed Reed, but Holliman is getting close to that look from me. 

2. ILB Benardrick McKinney, Mississippi State

The best inside linebacker in the 2015 draft class is one heck of an athlete. The 6'4", 250-pound McKinney looks like a low-4.5-speed player on the field and may be closer to a high-4.4 once the NFL Scouting Combine gets here.

McKinney has the fluid movement skills and transition ability to play inside or outside linebacker at the next level, but when I look at him knifing through traffic and stuffing gaps in the run game, I see a stud "Mike" linebacker with true first-round talent.

1. OLB Eric Striker, Oklahoma

Small, athletic linebackers are all the rage in the NFL right now. Looking at the college game, Oklahoma's Eric Striker is emerging as one of the most dangerous players on defense. The junior linebacker isn't a lock to enter the 2015 draft, but his play is making it harder to ignore his pro potential.

Striker's unique skill set as an edge-rusher and run defender make him especially appealing to the NFL. He may need to get stronger down the road and add weight to his current 221-pound frame, but immediately he can contribute as a nickel linebacker and make plays as a rotational linebacker.

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1. OLB Leonard Floyd, Georgia

The early-season hype surrounding Leonard Floyd's ability and NFL future has sizzled out as the Georgia outside linebacker has struggled to put together solid games after his hot start. Floyd is moving down my board but still projects as a late first-round pick.

The key to Floyd's draft stock is believing in his developmental potential. Is he the player that produced two sacks in the season opener? Floyd is a bit of a boom-or-bust player, and in a draft class loaded at edge-rusher, that pushes him down the board.

2. DE Shilique Calhoun, Michigan State

Much like Leonard Floyd, Shilique Calhoun is a player with nice potential as a defensive end or outside linebacker, but his on-field production hasn't been as good as expected. When talking about production, I don't just mean tackles and sacks, but pressures and how he impacts the game. When watching Michigan State, Calhoun hasn't be the threat he's capable of being.

With this being a deep class on the edge, Calhoun is moving down behind Floyd, Bud Dupree and Dante Fowler on my board. 

3. WR Ty Montgomery, Stanford

Dropped passes and a lack of development as a route-runner continue to push Stanford's Ty Montgomery down the board. While he offers promise as a return man and as a jet-sweep type of ball-carrier, Montgomery is a work in progress as a true wide receiver.

There is value in that role, to be sure, but Montgomery is more Dexter McCluster than Percy Harvin. That makes him a late second- or early third-round value given the top-heavy wide receiver talent likely to be available in this class. 

4. WR Stefon Diggs, Maryland

Even before it was announced that Stefon Diggs would be suspended for this weekend's game against Michigan State, I had him in my notes as a player moving down.

For all the hype surrounding Diggs, rarely do you see him making the impact to back up his swagger and his name recognition. In some ways, Diggs is likely living off his reputation as a high-profile prep player, but his Maryland days have been cut short by injuries. Much like Montgomery, Diggs right now is little more than a gadget player and special teams ace. 

5. QB Sean Mannion, Oregon State

Sean Mannion's numbers over the last year-and-a-half at Oregon State are impressive, but passing numbers rarely tell the entire story when looking at a player's abilities and traits as a quarterback prospect. For Mannion, the numbers are misleading, as his arm strength, accuracy and pocket skills have him ranked as a late-round prospect.

Without Brandin Cooks turning short passes into big gains, Mannion has been exposed a bit this year. In my rankings of the top 10 quarterbacks, he's not even on the list.

Scouting Report: Marcus Peters, Washington

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Otto Greule Jr/Getty Images

Cornerback Marcus Peters, Washington (6'0", 198 lbs)

Strengths

• Looks like a No. 1 cornerback, runs like a No. 1 cornerback, covers like a No. 1 cornerback.
• Is a fluid mover in space and has clean transitions in man coverage.
• Has the ball skills to create turnovers.
• Ideal size and length to match up against taller NFL receivers.
• Will test exceptionally well with speed and agility numbers of a top-10 pick.
• Has the mentality to come up and play the run or take on ball-carriers underneath.
• May have longest arms of any cornerback in 2015 class. Wingspan is unreal.
• Moves well out of his backpedal and is big enough to play press coverage on the LOS.
  
   

Weaknesses

• Dismissed from team after repeated run-ins with assistant coaches.
• Suspended for 2013 bowl game under previous head coach Steve Sarkisian.
• Struggled with physical wide receiver Jaelen Strong in 2014 meeting after dominating in 2013.
• Can take himself out of games with trash-talking and chippy play.

Pro Player Comparison: Prince Amukamara, New York Giants

Scouting Dictionary

"MOF"

NFL scouts love a good acronym, and "MOF" is one you'll see and hear used a lot. It stands for "middle of the field" and can be applied to quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, linebackers and defensive backs.

When an area scout is sitting in his Holiday Inn Express in Akron, Ohio, at 2 a.m. and is trying to pound through another scouting report on a player his team may never look at, you start shortening as many words as possible.

NFL scouting directors and general managers are also reading through hundreds of scouting reports, so they want a condensed, efficient report on a player. As often as you can abbreviate something—like MOF or LOS (line of scrimmage) it makes for a cleaner, shorter read. 

The Big Board

The NFL season is inching away, and we're getting closer to the end of the season. With Week 10 in front of us, here's a look at an early November mock draft using the current draft order.

Pick	Team	Player	College
1	OAK	DT Leonard Williams	USC
2	JAX	DE Randy Gregory	Nebraska
3	NYJ	QB Marcus Mariota	Oregon
4	TB	QB Jameis Winston	FSU
5	TEN	WR Amari Cooper	Alabama
6	ATL	OLB Shane Ray	Missouri
7	WSH	SS Landon Collins	Alabama
8	CHI	OLB Shaq Thompson	Washington
9	NYG	OT Cedric Ogbuehi	Texas A&M
10	STL	QB Brett Hundley	UCLA
11	CAR	OT Brandon Scherff	Iowa
12	HOU	CB Marcus Peters	Washington
13	MIN	OT Ronnie Stanley	Notre Dame
14	NO	OLB Vic Beasley	Clemson
15	SF	WR DeVante Parker	Louisville
16	SD	DE Shawn Oakman	Baylor
17	BAL	OLB Bud Dupree	Kentucky
18	CLV	WR Kevin White	West Virginia
19	MIA	RB Todd Gurley	Georgia
20	GB	ILB Benardrick McKinney	Miss. State
21	KC	FS Gerod Holliman	Louisville
22	CLV (via BUF)	DT Danny Shelton	Washington
23	SEA	DE Dante Fowler	Florida
24	PIT	CB Trae Waynes	Michigan St.
25	DAL	DT Michael Bennett	Ohio State
26	IND	OLB Leonard Floyd	Georgia
27	CIN	DE Mario Edwards	FSU
28	DET	DT Eddie Goldman	FSU
29	PHI	CB P.J. Williams	FSU
30	DEN	OT La'el Collins	LSU
31	NE	WR Devin Funchess	Michigan
32	ARZ	OLB Lorenzo Mauldin	Louisville

Parting Shots

10. It's always fun—and interesting—to go back and look at previous draft classes. In looking at my 2013 Big Board I discovered that two of my top three running backs have already retired due to injuries. Johnathan Franklin was drafted by the Green Bay Packers but suffered a neck injury in his rookie season. Marcus Lattimore hurt his knee twice at South Carolina, but was still selected by the San Francisco 49ers. He retired after never carrying the ball in an NFL game.

9. Speaking of Marcus Lattimore, it's sad to see such a bright career end so soon and without results. Before hurting his knee during the 2011 season, Lattimore looked like a potential top-tier running back prospect. His blend of power, speed and vision was ideal for the NFL—similar in some ways to Todd Gurley right now. Lattimore's two knee injuries would eventually strip him of his ability, but for a season-and-a-half in college he was a truly elite player.

8. The focus for so many in the NFL draft revolves around the first round, but looking at what the Pittsburgh Steelers have done in finding mid-round wide receiver talent should shift eyes to all seven rounds. Take a look at what the Steelers have found in their top three wide receivers:

Player	Games	Stats	Draft Pick
Antonio Brown	9	71 catches, 996 yards, 8 TD	No. 195 overall
Markus Wheaton	9	31 catches, 395 yards, 2 TD	No. 79 overall
Martavis Bryant	3	10 catches, 167 yards, 5 TD	No. 118 overall

7. What's the safest position to draft in the top 10 picks of the draft? That varies given the year, obviously, but take a look at my Top 10 players from the 2013 NFL draft. This was the Year of the Lineman with six offensive linemen selected in the top 11 picks. It's not the offensive linemen, wide receivers or defensive backs playing best early, though. According to Pro Football Focus, it's the defensive tackles.

Rank	Player	Team	2014 PFF Grade
1	OT Luke Joeckel	Jaguars	-7.4
2	OG Chance Warmack	Titans	-8.0
3	OT Eric Fisher	Chiefs	-14.4
4	DT Sharrif Floyd	Vikings	+10.9
5	DE Tank Carradine	49ers	Injured
6	WR Cordarrelle Patterson	Vikings	-1.1
7	DT Star Lotulelei	Panthers	+6.5
8	DE Dion Jordan	Dolphins	Suspended
9	DT Sheldon Richardson	Jets	+20.3
10	SS Kenny Vaccaro	Saints	-10.1

6. How did my rankings compare to the top 10 picks of the 2013 draft? So far, NFL teams aren't seeing much more success from the top of the draft (Grades courtesy of Pro Football Focus).

Pick	Player	Team	2014 PFF Grade
1	OT Eric Fisher	Chiefs	-14.4
2	OT Luke Joeckel	Jaguars	-7.4
3	DE Dion Jordan	Dolphins	Suspended
4	OT Lane Johnson	Eagles	+3.4
5	DE Ezekiel Ansah	Lions	+3.2
6	OLB Barkevious Mingo	Browns	+4.6
7	OG Jon Cooper	Cardinals	Not starter
8	WR Tavon Austin	Rams	-3.6
9	CB Dee Milliner	Jets	Injured
10	OG Chance Warmack	Titans	-8.0

5. November 6 is Pat Tillman's birthday. Or was, rather. Younger readers may not know much about Tillman, but I was in the height of my football fanhood when he left the NFL in June 2002 to join the Army Rangers after the September 11 attacks. Tillman would have been 38 years old this year. Take a few minutes to read up on a truly unique, and heroic, football player. 

4. Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops discussed mock drafts with the Daily Oklahoman this week (h/t The Kansas City Star), and said: "All you have to do is go back the last two, three years and look at how accurate the mock drafts has been at this time of year. They’re about 20 percent. Those guys have got no idea. That’s just pure entertainment.”

I agree completely. A mock draft in November is not a projection of what will happen in April or May, but rather a look at what NFL teams need and what players would fill those needs right now. A lot can change between now and the last weekend in April, but that doesn't mean mock drafts aren't entertaining and educational for readers. But on the flip side, a mock draft or big board right now shouldn't influence the decision of a college player trying to decide if he should leave school for the draft. Too much can change for a mock draft to be a good indicator of staying or going.

3. Poll most folks in the NFL media and they'd tell you Arizona Cardinals head coach Bruce Arians deserves the lead in the Coach of the Year race. But let's not forget about Mike Pettine.

The Cleveland Browns were 4-12 in 2013 and fired the front office and all coaches before hiring Pettine and offensive coordinator Kyle Shanahan to rebuild the team. With Brian Hoyer at quartebrack, their two best receivers (Josh Gordon, Jordan Cameron) out and completely new systems being installed on both sides of the ball, the Browns are 6-3 and tied for first place in the AFC North. 

Arians' Cardinals are a sexier vote with just one loss, but the work Pettine has done in Cleveland is with much less talent around him.

2. It may always feel like next year is supposed to be better when talking about draft classes, but the 2016 class is already more exciting than the 2015 crop. Time may change that, but the players showing up on game days while watching upperclassmen are very promising. Here are the players I've already marked as Round 1 targets in terms of talent and potential.

Player	Position	School
A'Shawn Robinson	DT	Alabama
Vernon Hargreaves	CB	Florida
Connor Cook	QB	Michigan State
Jaylon Smith	OLB	Notre Dame
Corey Robinson	WR	Notre Dame
Ronnie Stanley	OT	Notre Dame
Laquan Treadwell	WR	Ole Miss
Robert Nkemdiche	DE	Ole Miss
Laremy Tunsil	OT	Ole Miss
Tony Conner	SS	Ole Miss
Joey Bosa	DE	Ohio State
Christian Hackenberg	QB	Penn State
Su'a Cravens	S	USC
Kendall Fuller	CB	Virginia Tech

1. Colin Kaepernick and Andy Dalton signed new contracts in the offseason that were considered team-friendly by the media at the time. With both players struggling in 2014, will those year-to-year contracts give the San Francisco 49ers and Cincinnati Bengals wiggle room to make a change at quarterback?

That much is unlikely, no matter how poorly the two have looked at times. The pool of available quarterback talent is not great, and barring a Marcus Mariota or Jameis Winston falling unexpectedly down draft boards, the teams aren't in a good position to draft a quarterback to take over the starting job.

The reality in both cities may be that the teams must be built around the strengths of these young quarterbacks unless a draft-day steal (a la Russell Wilson) falls into their laps.