2015 NFL Draft: Matt Miller's Scouting Notebook for Week 9

The 2014 NFL season is at the halfway mark. That means it's NFL draft season, too. 

Of the 32 NFL teams, 13 already have losing records. Teams like the Raiders (zero wins), Jets (one win), Jaguars (one win), Buccaneers (one win), Falcons (two wins) and Rams (two wins) are already focusing on next year. We are, too. 

It's officially anonymous scout season, and I wanted to spend the beginning of this article addressing that. I will not use rumors or notes from coaches, executives, players or scouts that aren't vetted. If I share things like last year's comparison of Teddy Bridgewater to fictional quarterback Willie Beaman, it's to show the readers how NFL teams think. Much like retweets aren't always an endorsement, sharing information from anonymous sources isn't always an endorsement of their opinion. It's only to peel back the curtain on how NFL teams operate. So, what are NFL teams thinking?

The Scout's Report

— The 2015 draft class doesn't look particularly strong overall, but there are a few players NFL scouts feel are safe picks. One NFC college scouting director told me this week that USC's Leonard Williams is viewed by his team right now as the safest pick in the class. Williams projects as a 5-technique in a 3-4 defense or a 3-technique one-gap player in a 4-3 scheme. He's currently my No. 3 overall player in the draft.

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

— Williams' teammate, wide receiver Nelson Agholor, is also catching the eye of NFL scouts. Said one scout, "He's the cleanest route-runner in the draft right now. We like him as a year one impact player." 

— More on Wisconsin's Melvin Gordon below, but here's what one scout told me about him this week: "He has better instincts than some of the top backs in the class, but not a better athlete than (Tevin) Coleman or (Todd) Gurley."

— Why didn't the Kansas City Chiefs make a play for a wide receiver at the trade deadline? As I'm told by a source high in the team's organization, the salary cap and future of the team's cap was too much of an issue. The Chiefs should have plenty of extra compensatory picks in the 2015 draft thanks to losing free agents Branden Albert, Jon Asamoah and Geoff Schwartz, and could look to fill out the roster with those extra picks at a lower cost.

— What's wrong with the Chicago Bears? As one opposing assistant coach told me, "(Head coach Marc) Trestman has made them soft. Softest teams in the NFC North." The Bears seem to lack an imposing defensive player, especially in the back seven, and could easily target an outside linebacker or safety in Round 1.

— Florida State's Jimbo Fisher has won a national championship, rebuilt the program at FSU and has a roster loaded with future NFL talent. Is he ready for the pros? In talking to general managers and assistant general managers around the league, the expectation is that his name will be atop the short list of top candidates this offseason. More later on the best available head coaching candidates.

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

— Washington cornerback Marcus Peters is the top player at his position for the 2015 draft right now, but he has two suspensions under his belt. Will that cost him with NFL teams? One Pac-12 area scout I spoke to doesn't think so, saying, "(Chris) Petersen just doesn't like him. He'll be fine in the pros."

— Penn State quarterback Christian Hackenberg has been hyped as a potential No. 1 pick since he signed out of high school, but he's struggling statistically this year. Is he still a top-tier prospect? Without a doubt. Hackenberg lost his best receiver (Allen Robinson), plays behind a struggling offensive line and lost his quarterback coach/head coach Bill O'Brien to the NFL. Hackenberg has rare talent as a thrower and in terms of his field vision. The interceptions will come as he's asked to push the ball down the field often, but his accuracy is top-notch. His decision-making will improve, and that will drive down his interceptions.

— B/R colleague Jason Cole had a great report on NFL execs believing Alabama draft prospects are "overvalued" and "overworked" by head coach Nick Saban. This is definitely something I've heard over the last two years and is being absorbed by NFL front offices and also used by competing coaches on the recruiting trail.

Five Up, Five Down

Each week, "Five Up, Five Down" will monitor the movements of players on my draft board.

5. RB Duke Johnson, Miami (Florida)

I always say that college production isn't a good indicator of NFL talent, but college production can lead you to finding the NFL traits in a player. Miami's Duke Johnson has the production and talent at running back to excite NFL scouts.

Johnson has developed into a balanced tailback after being largely a speed player early in his career. We've seen him add weight (5'9", 206 lbs) and round out his game to where he can beat a defense with his world-class speed, but also with good vision, agility and enough power to move the chains between the tackles.

Johnson, should he enter the 2015 draft, looks like a top-100 player.

4. OLB Bud Dupree, Kentucky

Kentucky edge-defender Bud Dupree made his debut in the first round of my 2015 mock draft this week, and it's time we in the national media started talking more about this kid's ability.

Dupree has the length, explosive first step and instincts the NFL is looking for in a stand-up edge-rusher in a 3-4 defense. Dupree has been a disruptive, explosive defender at Kentucky and is an ideal fit to play in a pass-rushing role in the NFL next season. He looks like a mid-first-round pick at this time.

3. CB Trae Waynes, Michigan State

Long, aggressive cornerbacks are all the rage in the NFL right now, and Michigan State's Trae Waynes is arguably the best the college game has to offer in that area. Waynes excels playing on the line of scrimmage and has shown good hand placement and accuracy in jamming receivers off the line of scrimmage. He's also physical enough to make plays on 50/50 balls and in the run game.

2. WR Rashad Greene, Florida State

The Florida State offense is loaded with NFL talent, making it easy to overlook players on a casual glance. That's why it's so important to watch the game film once for every draftable player.

Rashad Greene has the production, but what I like most about his game is the ability to catch the ball in stride and start making plays up the field. He's a hands-catcher and doesn't let the ball get inside his frame, and from what I've seen in 2014 he's a super smooth route-runner with excellent change-of-direction skills.

Greene doesn't have great size (6'1", 180 lbs) but is one of the smarter receivers in college. 

1. RB Michael Dyer, Louisville

Michael Dyer was a stud running back for Auburn when Cam Newton was quarterback, but since then he's bounced around the NCAA and struggled to stay healthy. He's doing that now though at Louisville and is producing very well when fed the ball.

Dyer has NFL-level vision, feet and speed. He also runs with good power and can make defenders miss in the hole. His balance after first contact is special, and he's able to keep his feet and pick up plus yards off a spin move, stiff arm or juke. If NFL teams are willing to look past his troubled background and sign off on his injuries, he has the material to be a starting NFL running back as a mid-round pick.

1. CB P.J. Williams, Florida State

I'm a big fan of Florida State's P.J. Williams, but he was routinely beat on Thursday night by Louisville's DeVante Parker.

Parker is a top-tier prospect—my No. 1 senior wide receiver—but Williams was not impressive in his bump-and-run hand use and struggled to turn and run with Parker down the field. Williams did play well when coming up to play the ball in front of him and adds good ability in the run game, but his man coverage skills were exposed by an elite prospect.

2. DT Michael Bennett, Ohio State

Michael Bennett opened the year as my top-ranked defensive tackle, but he hasn't been as productive or impactful in his senior season.

Bennett is a smaller defensive tackle (6'2", 288 lbs) who must win with leverage, anticipation and burst off the line of scrimmage. When he doesn't fire off and win the gap, Bennett can be controlled by blockers. That's happening more in 2014—somewhat due to the absence of Noah Spence allowing offensive lines to focus on Bennett and Joey Bosa. 

Bennett projects as a 3-technique tackle only, which means teams running a 3-4 defense are likely to look past him. That cuts the league in half for Bennett and pushes his stock down the board more.

3. RB Karlos Williams, Florida State

Karlos Williams has been replaced by Dalvin Cook as the best running back on the Florida State roster, and that definitely affects his draft stock. But a domestic violence investigation also hurts Williams' ranking heading into November.

The Tallahassee Police Department announced that Williams was being investigated for an accusation of domestic battery, but his girlfriend is asking authorities to not pursue charges. Regardless of charges, it's a bad look for Williams with the NFL focusing on domestic violence. 

According to the Tallahassee Democrat, Williams has also been named a subject in a drug deal robbery case. Those are the kind of headlines no player can afford to have hanging over his head. Combine that with his decreased role in the offense with Cook taking more reps in the second half against Louisville and Williams may not be draftable.

4. OT Ereck Flowers, Miami (Florida)

The offensive tackle class for 2015 looks good, and that may be bolstered by Miami left tackle Ereck Flowers, but a knee injury has him sitting at least one game and maybe the entire season, according to the Miami Herald. 

Flowers is an impressive athlete, but looked like more of a potential player than an instant impact at tackle given his play in 2014. Injury at the end of this season may be a blessing in disguise, as another year of coaching and development for him at Miami may be the best thing for his draft stock ultimately. 

5. RB Melvin Gordon, Wisconsin

My mentions on Twitter took off when Melvin Gordon was left out of my recent two-round mock draft. Fans want to know why one of college football's most productive backs isn't recognized as a top-tier NFL talent.

Here's are the details behind that—Gordon doesn't have any elite qualities to his game. He's fast, but doesn't have great burst. He's agile, but doesn't have the power behind his pads to break tackles when his footwork can't get him free from defenders. And in the NFL, Gordon's agility won't be LeSean McCoy-like where he can flat-out make defenders miss. And McCoy, for all his agility, has power to break tackles. I don't see Gordon having that. His instincts and vision are good, but his athleticism is average for a draft prospect.

Scouting Report: DeVante Parker, Louisville

Throughout the 2014 college football season, one senior draft prospect will be highlighted each week with a first-look scouting report.

Andy Lyons/Getty Images

DeVante Parker, Wide Receiver, Louisville (6'3", 209 lbs)

Strengths

• Comes off the line of scrimmage very well, uses his hands to break free from press coverage.
• Has strong hands and makes tough catches away from his body. Doesn't bobble the ball.
• Is a good all-around route-runner with experience over the middle or running deep routes.
• Has shown very good leaping ability and body control to attack and high-point the ball.
• Has good body control coming off the line and moving in any direction.
• Doesn't waste steps and gets into his routes quickly and efficiently.
• Has No. 1 receiver hands, body control and routes.
  
   

Weaknesses

• Missed first half of the 2014 season with a foot injury.
• Doesn't have game-changing speed or breakaway ability.
• Needs to create separation with timing, precise routes and size due to lack of speed.
• Doesn't have power to run past or through defenders. Can be a finesse player in the open field.

Pro Player Comparison: Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers

Scouting Dictionary

"50/50 Ball"

Turn on any NFL or college football game and you'll see quarterbacks throwing the ball into coverage and asking their wide receiver or tight end to leap and make a play on the football. These jump balls are commonly called "50/50 balls" in the NFL and college community. 

A 50/50 ball refers to the receiver and defender having a fair shot at the ball. Think of Alshon Jeffery, Kelvin Benjamin or Dez Bryant fighting for positioning, jumping and high-pointing the football to beat a defender in position to challenge the pass. That's a 50/50 ball.

The Big Board

The NFL season is at the halfway mark, so it's time to update the Big Board. Here is a sneak peek at my top 10 players overall.

Rank	Player	Pos.	School
1	Marcus Mariota	QB	Oregon
2	Jameis Winston	QB	Florida State
3	Leonard Williams	DE	USC
4	Amari Cooper	WR	Alabama
5	Randy Gregory	DE	Nebraska
6	Todd Gurley	RB	Georgia
7	Cedric Ogbuehi	OT	Texas A&M
8	Brandon Scherff	OT	Iowa
9	Vic Beasley	OLB	Clemson
10	Landon Collins	SS	Alabama

Parting Shots

10. Panthers wide receiver Kelvin Benjamin briefly made news this week when he told ESPN.com that he purposefully ran a slow 40 time at the NFL Scouting Combine so he would be drafted by the Panthers. Benjamin, clearly, was joking, but the word spread and people panicked.

Let's think this one through, shall we?

Benjamin running a 4.61 in the 40-yard dash wouldn't be a guaranteed way to push him down the board to the Panthers. Also, why would he wait until Week 9 of the season to break this news?

Benjamin 1, reporters 0 if you're keeping score at home.

9. Speaking of Benjamin, it's time to revisit some predraft thoughts I had on him since so many people want to talk about this being a draft miss of mine.

I ranked Benjamin No. 12 among wide receiver prospects, and that does look low considering his draft positioning and his early-season success. But let's remember why Benjamin was ranked that low—he's a 23-year-old rookie who struggled with his weight, drops and academics. 

It's great to see Benjamin playing well—and I hope he and many others prove me wrong and succeed—but we can't focus only on his catches and overlook his drops. Benjamin has dropped a touchdown in two straight games (both losses) and is still a one-trick pony as a route-runner. Until he can become a more versatile and dynamic receiver, NFL defenses will learn to bracket coverage him. 

People will remember the awesome catch he made over Earl Thomas and Richard Sherman, but forget the touchdown he dropped that would have been a huge difference in a one-score game. Benjamin's ceiling is incredibly high, but he has a lot of work to put in before he's ready to be labeled as a draft miss.

8. As is always the case when I post a mock draft, fans took to Twitter to tell me their team needs "X position" in the first or second round, not "Y position!!!!" That may well be the case, but there isn't always a valuable player at the position of need. 

For example, Jets fans want a cornerback early in Round 1, but there isn't a cornerback ranked inside my top 15 players currently. This is where NFL teams get in trouble by reaching for a need instead of drafting a player of value.

My draft philosophy is to draft the best player available at a position of need. So those Jets fans who want a cornerback can get a quarterback or outside linebacker in Round 1 and that much-needed cover man in Round 2 if there's a player of value on the board.

7. There's a new trend making its way across the NFL very quietly this year. What is it? Athletes moving to running back.

Denard Robinson has over 100 yards rushing in the last two weeks for the Jacksonville Jaguars, and this is only his second season playing running back after lining up at quarterback for Michigan. Jerick McKinnon was a multipurpose player for Georgia Southern, but in Minnesota he's the team's best running back with Adrian Peterson suspended.

How will this trend affect college and NFL teams? Expect more scouts to eye run-first college quarterbacks with a newfound respect. If they can't make it as a passer, drafting and developing their ability as a runner is a worthy investment.

6. Florida State and Louisville played a thrilling Thursday night game that was much more interesting than the NFL matchup of the New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers. With two rosters full of future NFL talent, my focus was on the college game. Here are some quick notes following the game:

— Jameis Winston is special. I can't take into consideration his off-field concerns yet (see last week's column), but his on-field ability is unique. Winston wasn't at his best against a good Louisville defense, and the numbers will show three interceptions—one caused by a receiver not finishing his route—but he plays his best when the game is on the line and has an unnatural coolness when pressured. NFL teams are going to fall in love with that poise whenever he enters the draft.

— Louisville wide receiver DeVante Parker has picked up right where he left off last year. Parker, in only his second game back from a foot injury, routinely beat first-round prospect P.J. Williams and again showed the balance, body control, concentration and hands to be a first-round pick. 

— Safety Gerod Holliman might not get the national recognition Landon Collins will see, but he's every bit as talented. The redshirt sophomore can play free safety in the NFL from Day 1 and has rare instincts, vision and closing speed when the ball is in the air.

— FSU left tackle Cam Erving vs. Louisville defensive end Lorenzo Mauldin wasn't the battle I expected due to Mauldin being injured, but Erving had his best game of the season. Scouts will be quick to note he was playing against a banged-up player, but Erving showed more of what I saw in 2013 with his ability to move and fan out rushers.

— Running back Dalvin Cook isn't draft eligible until 2017, but he's going to be fun to watch for the next two-and-a-half seasons.

5. Georgia running back Todd Gurley will see his suspension end Nov. 15—right in time to play Auburn—and many are wondering how this four-game suspension affects his NFL draft stock.

It doesn't hurt it one bit.

Gurley was suspended for allegedly taking money for autographs, nothing criminal, and the NFL will not care. A.J. Green served a four-game suspension for selling a game-worn jersey and that didn't prevent NFL teams from making him the No. 4 overall pick in the 2011 NFL draft. In fact, going four weeks without taking SEC hits may be a boost to Gurley's stock.

4. I'm going to post something here that will likely upset many people, but please read it all. 

I hate fantasy football.

Now, don't get me wrong, I play in two leagues and enjoy the idea (and the excuse to drink with friends during the fantasy draft), but fantasy football has caused too many people to focus on stats and ignore the game. How many of you or your friends care more about your fantasy team winning instead of your favorite team winning? I see it often.

Fantasy football is great, and it's led to a massive explosion in the number of football fans, but can we please get back to actually watching the games and not judging a player's ability based on how many fantasy points he did or didn't get you this week?

3. One more post on annoying things and then we'll end on two high notes, I promise.

Sports Illustrated's Thayer Evans and Pete Thamel shared this week that an NFL scout told them Oregon quarterback—and top-ranked player—Marcus Mariota was "too nice." Seriously. 

"

'Like if you punched him in the stomach, he might apologize to you,' an NFL scout said. 'I just don’t know if he’s that alpha male that you’re looking for. This kid’s a kind of fly on the wall kind of guy.

'Physically, he’s really talented, but it’s going to take a little time. If you’re expecting him to come in and be your savior Year 1, I don’t think that’s going to be it.'

"

We've officially reached the breaking point. Do NFL scouts remember that Richie Incognito ruined the Miami Dolphins just one year ago? A player being too nice seems like a damn good problem to have. Do Mariota's teammates trust him? Do his coaches believe he's a good leader? Does he have the work ethic and drive to be great? Those things matter, what he would do if punched in the stomach does not.

2. The 2014 NFL draft class was supposed to be a once-in-a-generation group of talent, and so far many players are already living up to those expectations. But no group is playing as well as the receivers. Look at these numbers:

Player	Round/Pick	Catches/Yards/TDs
Sammy Watkins	1/4	38/590/5
Mike Evans	1/7	25/336/2
Odell Beckham	1/12	10/106/3
Brandin Cooks	1/20	40/372/2
Kelvin Benjamin	1/28	38/571/5
Jordan Matthews	2/10	29/273/2
Davante Adams	2/21	24/263/2
Allen Robinson	2/29	39/453/2
Jarvis Landry	2/31	25/255/1
Donte Moncrief	3/26	16/216/1
John Brown	3/27	22/316/4
Martavis Bryant	4/18	7/123/3
Allen Hurns	UDFA	22/354/3

It's only been eight weeks, and plenty can change, but the early returns from the pass-catchers in this class are eye-opening. And with the 2015 class looking weak at wide receiver in terms of depth, this 2014 class will stand out even more.

1. The Oakland Raiders are already in the market for a new head coach and there will be more teams following closely behind them. Who are the top assistant coaches in the NFL in line for a head coaching job?

Coach	Job	Team
Vic Fangio	Defensive Coordinator	49ers
Jim Tomsula	DL Coach	49ers
Hue Jackson	Offensive Coordinator	Bengals
Adam Gase	Offensive Coordinator	Broncos
Jack Del Rio	Defensive Coordinator	Broncos
Kyle Shanahan	Offensive Coordinator	Browns
Todd Bowles	Defensive Coordinator	Cardinals
Matt Patricia	Defensive Coordinator	Patriots
Dan Quinn	Defensive Coordinator	Seahawks
Ray Horton	Defensive Coordinator	Titans

Next week we'll take a look at the top college coaches that could jump to the NFL.