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Fantasy Football Week 8: Insider Notebook and Preview

Eric MackOct 21, 2014

We don't mean to burst your bubble and tell you to stop reading early-week fantasy analysis about waiver-wire additions, but Tuesday night's adds might be the most overrated players in fantasy football. You have to keep grinding through the news and analysis through the weekend to get to the real upcoming gems every week.

There were legit reasons the waiver-wire favorites were not owned going into the past Sunday's action. If they were that intriguing, you would have added them the Saturday before...if not had them waiting for a breakthrough on your reserves for weeks.

Take Rams rookie running back Tre Mason, for example. Mason, owned in just 2.3 percent of ESPN.com fantasy leagues, might be the most-added player this week, alongside Jacksonville Jaguars running back Denard Robinson, Buffalo Bills running back Bryce Brown and Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Doug Baldwin.

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Mason, who rushed 18 times for 85 yards and a touchdown against an elite Seattle Seahawks defense, emerged as the lead back for the run-first St. Louis Rams on Sunday, getting 27 of the 51 snaps on offense over Benny Cunningham (19) and former starter Zac Stacy (one), according to ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required).

But fantasy giveth and fantasy taketh away. Head coach Jeff Fisher hinted former starter Stacy's lack of use might have been a one-week thing, telling CBSSports.com's Larry Hartstein:

"

We've got three outstanding runners. And as I mentioned, we think Trey Watts can also help us, so we're going to use them all. It'll be a week-to-week thing. Zac could get 25 carries this week.

"

Oh, great. Right back to where we started with Stacy and Mason.

Don't completely give up on Stacy. He was held back in practice last week because of an ankle issue and in the game due to circumstances, but he could remain the early-down plodder for the Rams, Fisher suggested to Hartstein:

"

We had some things in early this week. It was working, so we decided to stay with Mase. It's nothing that Zac has done or hasn't done. He's been a little banged up the last couple of weeks, but obviously he's an outstanding runner as well. We clearly have significant depth there at the position. ... The good thing about this is [Stacy will] come back and should be 100 percent this week and just see where it goes.

"

What is worse, all of the Rams running backs have to deal with tough opponents in addition to a sticky Stacy and a stubborn head coach. The next month does not bode well for Mason making a huge fantasy splash:

  • Week 8: Kansas City Chiefs (fifth-best against fantasy running backs, per FFToday.com)
  • Week 9: San Francisco 49ers (fifth-best against the run and seventh-best against fantasy backs)
  • Week 10: Arizona Cardinals (No. 1 against the run and No. 4 against fantasy backs)
  • Week 11: Denver Broncos (No. 3 against the run)

Mason is an explosive player who must be added in fantasy leagues immediately, but he might have some modest numbers in those matchups, if he can even win the battle of the Rams running back committee. Regardless, the Rams will stay stubborn with the run, so expect to see more and more of the rookie back. Talent tends to rise to the top.

This is a case study in how you can make up for your free-agent acquisition misses throughout the week. Unless you need a one-week stopgap starter, you are likely better off with the players sitting on your bench than those everyone is scrambling to get off the waiver wire.

Keep a long-term view in managing your fantasy roster, even if you are going week-to-week on how your lineups stack up. Your reserves should be the players with the best potential to help you down the road. Their Week 8 points do you little good on your bench.

Midseason Stock Watch

Buy-Low Stars

We have passed the midway point of the fantasy football regular season and will be coming up on the trading deadline in a few weeks. Here are some buy-low candidates among the players picked in the first few rounds of leagues this fall (per FantasyPros.com ADP):

  1. RB LeSean McCoy, Philadelphia Eagles
  2. WR Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions
  3. TE Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints
  4. WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys
  5. RB Montee Ball, Denver Broncos
  6. WR A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals
  7. RB Giovani Bernard, Cincinnati Bengals
  8. RB Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins
  9. WR Keenan Allen, San Diego Chargers
  10. RB Ryan Mathews, San Diego Chargers

Second-Half Sleepers

The buy-low candidates don't have to just be the stars either. In fact, those are the toughest to trade for because their names carry residual value that make them more difficult to acquire at a reduced price. Here are some more buy-low candidates who are not among the highest scorers at their respective positions:

  1. RB Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans
  2. QB Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins
  3. RB Carlos Hyde, San Francisco 49ers
  4. RB Jerick McKinnon, Minnesota Vikings
  5. TE Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
  6. RB Andre Williams, New York Giants
  7. TE Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens
  8. WR Rueben Randle, New York Giants
  9. WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants
  10. TE Ladarius Green, San Diego Chargers

Sell High

On the other side of the ledger, here are the early-season top fantasy producers who we expect to slow down in the second half, making this a good time to sell high on them:

  1. RB Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers
  2. RB Arian Foster, Houston Texans
  3. WR Steve Smith, Baltimore Ravens
  4. TE Antonio Gates, San Diego Chargers
  5. QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens

Waiver-Wire Favorites

Every week, FantasyPros.com polls analysts to rank their favorite additions off waivers. We reprint the consensus rankings here to give you a rough idea of how to set your waivers priority lists and allocate your free-agent-acquisition budget.

1 Tre Mason RB STL111
2 Bryce Brown RB BUF3.227
3 Denard Robinson RB JAC425
4 Anthony Dixon RB BUF4.628
5 Doug Baldwin WR SEA4.637
6 Andrew Hawkins WR CLE6.448
7 Allen Robinson WR JAC7.6414
8 Davante Adams WR GB8.6610
9 Jonathan Stewart RB CAR9.2520
10 Benny Cunningham RB STL9.8811
11 Kenny Stills WR NO10.8613
12 Jermaine Kearse WR SEA12.4916
13 Stepfan Taylor RB ARI13.41116
14 Charles Clay TE MIA14.41218
15 Stevie Johnson WR SF14.61217
16 Gavin Escobar TE DAL161020
17 Paul Richardson WR SEA171418
18 Josh Brown WR ARI171319
19 Clay Harbor TE JAC171420
20 Jarvis Landry WR MIA18.41720

Thursday Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

San Diego Chargers

Start 'Em: Philip Rivers, Keenan Allen, Antonio Gates, Nick Novak

Sit 'Em: Branden Oliver, Malcom Floyd, Eddie Royal, Ladarius Green, Chargers D/ST

Rivers should have a productive game, particularly if the Chargers fall behind Peyton Manning and company early. The Broncos are 10th-worst in fantasy against quarterbacks, per FFToday.com.

Allen and Gates should be considered Rivers' primary targets, especially in a big game like this. We cannot trust the inconsistent likes of their underlings. Floyd, Royal and Green should be considered last-resort options.

Oliver is a likely sit, because the Broncos are No. 3 in the NFL against the run. This should be a tough game for him to crack double digits. The Chargers defense/special teams is a bad play too against a Broncos team that has been second-best against opposing D/STs.

Denver Broncos

Start 'Em: Peyton Manning, Ronnie Hillman, Demaryius Thomas, Emmanuel Sanders, Wes Welker, Julius Thomas, Brandon McManus, Broncos D/ST

Sit 'Em: Juwan Thompson, C.J. Anderson

This goes down as a "start all" game for the red-hot Broncos. Hillman has swallowed up all of the snaps and touches in Montee Ball's (knee) absence, while the targets are all getting action. The kicker and D/ST are marginal plays, particularly since the Chargers have been No. 1 in fantasy against D/STs, per the FFToday link above. You can ride the Broncos D/ST at home as needed, though.

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.

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