Fantasy Football Week 7 Predictions

Get this: Sunday will mark the midway point of the fantasy football regular season. In a few weeks, disinterested owners are going to fall off the map and start spending their free time holiday planning.

Time flies when you're having fun. And owners fly off the radar when they're not.

We are going to do our best here to keep you competitive and contending in this always fluctuating game of fantasy football.

Bleacher Report presents its predictions every Thursday of the season, including MVP—spoiler alert: It is going to stay with the first-half star DeMarco Murray—breakouts, busts, bounce-back players, the top matchup plays by position and a review of the top options off the waiver wire.

Check out what we predict for Week 7.

MVP

RB DeMarco Murray, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)

Projected Stat Line: 145 yards rushing, four receptions for 40 yards and two touchdowns

The New York Giants just got finished giving up 149 yards last Sunday night to LeSean McCoy, a running back who couldn't get out of his own way. Granted, McCoy was last year's reigning NFL rushing leader, but Murray is this year's rushing leader—by almost 250 yards.

So, yeah, he's...um...better. Than anyone right now.

Most impressive, even, is Murray's six-game total comes from rushing for 100-plus yards against the best defensive fronts of the NFC West. Murray gashed the likes of the San Francisco 49ers (118 yards), St. Louis Rams (100 yards) and the Seattle Seahawks (115 yards), adding a touchdown in each of those games. Those are three of the top 10 teams in fantasy against running backs, including the 49ers at No. 2 overall, per FFToday.com.

Against lesser-ranked run defenses in Murray's three other games, he hasn't been held to less than 136 yards. Wow.

We won't knock New York's run defense, necessarily, but the Giants are sixth-worst in fantasy against running backs. The Cowboys are running at will on anyone and everyone, a throwback to the '90s and the Emmitt Smith heyday. 

LaDainian Tomlinson, one of the few fantasy backs in NFL history to have enjoyed a run like Murray's, said this to Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News:

"

The way that offensive line is playing, they're playing tremendous football. They are moving people off the rock. All DeMarco Murray has to do is stay healthy. He has to make sure he's ready to go each and every week. I think he's going to put up the same type of numbers that he has been putting up.

And I think it can actually get better, as the season goes along, because the weather gets difficult to play with. You're going to have to run the football a little bit more, so DeMarco Murray is going to continue to put up numbers like this. 

[...]

Obviously the offensive lines for both Emmitt and DeMarco were excellent run blockers. But also the thing that I see with both of them is they both have great balance. They both can make yards after contact. And both guys are not burners. They're not considered guys that can run off on you, but they have decent speed to be able to take it 40, 50 yards at one time.

"

So, calling Murray an MVP this week is a bit obvious, perhaps. It won't do much for you in setting fantasy lineups, but he is the player—still—in the best situation to star in Week 7. 

Honorable Mention 

QB Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

RB Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)

WR Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons (at Baltimore Ravens)

WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)

TE Rob Gronkowski, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

Biggest Breakout Star

Larry French/Getty Images

RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Projected Stat Line: 120 yards rushing, five catches for 25 yards and two touchdowns

Forsett is coming off his first 100-yard rushing game of the season, but he hasn't really knocked the ball out of the park yet. He hasn't even had a game in which he has received more than 14 carries.

Expect that to come against a Falcons run defense that has given up a league-high 11 rushing touchdowns to running backs—four more than the next closest team. The Falcons have also given up the most rushing yards to backs (FFToday.com) and the second-most rushing yards overall.

This game is at home, where we should expect the Ravens to pound the football with their three-headed monster of Forsett, rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro and Bernard Pierce. It is clear now, though, that the Ravens' will ride Forsett as their hot hand, Pierce as his backup and mop-up man, while Taliaferro is the change-of-pace back in reserve when all three are healthy.

Head coach John Harbaugh told Ryan Mink of the Ravens' official website: 

"

Justin reads so well. He reads the scheme really well. He's got great vision, is very elusive and hard to tackle. Nobody works harder. He's one heck of a football player.

[...] 

And the better guys play, the more opportunities they’re going to get.

"

This is a great matchup for the Ravens backs. All three could prove to be useful as starters, depending on your league size. The best of the bunch right now is Forsett. This could be his introduction into must-start fantasy status going forward.

Honorable Mention 

QB Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars) 

RB Chris Ivory, New York Jets (at New England Patriots)

WR Rueben Randle/Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)

TE Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Biggest Bust

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

RB Ronnie Hillman, Denver Broncos (vs. San Francisco 49ers)

Projected Stat Line: 45 yards rushing, two catches for 12 yards and no touchdowns

We were wrong last week on Hillman, who managed to crack 100 yards on 24 carries against the New York Jets' now ninth-ranked run defense. The Jets, despite giving up back-to-back 100-yard rushing games to Hillman and Branden Oliver, are still the sixth-ranked team in fantasy against running backs, per FFToday.com.

Hillman stepped forward as the Broncos' lead back in Montee Ball's (knee) absence and had a big performance. It was his first career start and first 100-yard game.

"My first one," Hillman told Mike Klis of The Denver Post. "Hopefully, it's not the last."

We are going back to the well here in saying a tough run defense is going to slow his roll. The 49ers are the second-best team in fantasy against running backs and ranked sixth against the run overall. Unlike for the Jets, their game of stopping the run is unlikely to get away from them.

Also, Hillman is at risk of tossing away his newfound opportunity. He has had fumbling woes that have kept him from starting games in the past, and he put the ball on the ground against the Jets—though a teammate recovered it.

"It was an effort fumble," Hillman told Klis. "I was trying to fight for more yards. A lesson learned. Get what you can get and get down. I'll keep learning and carry that lesson into next week."

You made a solid addition of the new Broncos feature running back off waivers. You scored a solid performance in his debut. You will be disappointed if you are expecting more than modest numbers this week.

Honorable Mention

RB Zac Stacy, St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

RB Bishop Sankey, Tennessee Titans (at Washington Redskins)

RB Steven Jackson, Atlanta Falcons (vs. Baltimore Ravens)

RB Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers (vs. Kansas City Chiefs)

QB Austin Davis, St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks)

WR Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders (vs. Arizona Cardinals)

Biggest Bounce-Back Player

USA TODAY Sports

WR Dez Bryant, Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)

Projected Stat Line: Seven catches for 125 yards and two touchdowns

Bryant hasn't had a bad game yet, but he was held out of the end zone for the first time in five games last Sunday against the Seattle Seahawks. We predict he snaps out of that one-week hiccup with a big performance Sunday against the rival Giants.

The Giants haven't been bad against fantasy wideouts, ranking seventh best, per FFToday.com, but they don't have anyone that can match up physically to Bryant's size and speed. They cannot do the job Richard Sherman did last week.

"They kind of tracked Dez, and they hadn’t done that before," Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo told Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News. "That was a little out of character for them."

Bryant added he was a bit disappointed by his Week 6 performance.

"

I knew me and Sherman were going to be going against each other a lot. He's one of the best, arguably the best. I had to bring my A-game (Sunday). I could have done a lot better job, but we got the W.

"

Bryant gets the right matchup coming out of that one, though. He has more career receiving yards against the Giants than any other team, according to Pro-Football-Reference.com.

When the Giants roll up to stop DeMarco Murray and the Cowboys' red-hot running back, there will be opportunities for Bryant to make plays downfield. A strong running game is the deep passing game's best friend. Bryant is well-positioned for a huge performance here.

Honorable Mention

RB Alfred Morris, Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)

RB Shane Vereen/WR Julian Edelman, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

QB Matthew Stafford/RB Joique Bell, Detroit Lions (vs. New Orleans Saints)

WR Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks (at St. Louis Rams)

TE Vernon Davis, San Francisco 49ers (at Denver Broncos)

Top QB Matchup Plays

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy QBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)
2. Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (bye) 
4. New York Jets (at New England Patriots)
5. Philadelphia Eagles (bye) 
6. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
7. Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers)
8. Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)

QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Projected Stat Line: 250 yards passing and two touchdowns

Flacco is coming off a career performance that included a personal-best five first-half touchdowns against the Buccaneers. Now, he gets a favorable matchup.

Yes, we realize the Falcons are actually the NFL's fourth-best pass defense right now. Only the Detroit Lions have given up fewer touchdown passes to fantasy quarterbacks (six to five, according to FFToday.com). That is a function of circumstances, though, and not actual talent or competence.

See, the Falcons are hemorrhaging rushing yards and touchdowns on the ground. The Ravens are a run-first team. They are going to force the Falcons to stack the box to stop the run, which should create openings downfield for Flacco and company again.

Flacco, Steve Smith, Torrey Smith and Owen Daniels will be solid plays in all fantasy leagues, even if the matchup might not look favorable on the surface. Flacco credits new offensive coordinator Gary Kubiak for his maturation this season, as he told The Baltimore Sun's Mike Preston:

"

I think he has improved my game a lot. He's made things black and white. There is a right and there is a wrong. He's given me a clear picture which allows me to go out there and play fast and have confidence that I am making the right decision.

[...]

Gary is down on the field, so I go over the play drive with him right away. A lot of the time when we are sitting there he is talking with the coaches and going over what they saw. And seeing that the picture that we are looking at matches up with the one in the booth.

We're talking about what we can do on the next drive to take advantage of some of the coverages they are playing. That's the kind of thing I like. He's always looking to see what we can do later in the game to take advantage of what the secondary is playing.

"

Flacco is the hot hand right now. He also is the most-added quarterback at ESPN.com and still available in over 50 percent of their leagues. Consider him a solid stopgap option, particularly if you have Nick Foles on bye or don't like your regular starter's matchup.

Honorable Mention

Tom Brady, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

Colin Kaepernick, San Francisco 49ers (at Denver Broncos)

Brian Hoyer, Cleveland Browns (vs. Jacksonville Jaguars)

Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)

Top RB Matchup Plays

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy RBs, per FFToday.com:

1. Atlanta Falcons (at Baltimore Ravens)
2. Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers)
3. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (bye)
4. Minnesota Vikings (at Buffalo Bills)
5. Oakland Raiders (vs. Arizona Cardinals)
6. New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
8. Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Andre Ellington, Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)

Projected Stat Line: 110 yards rushing, five catches for 30 yards and a touchdown

Ellington hasn't quite been the breakthrough fantasy star so many expected he would be, but the good news is he has survived to date. He has held up through foot issues and has made it through tough matchups the past three games against some of the best teams in fantasy against running backs, like the Washington Redskins (fourth best) and San Francisco 49ers (second best), per the FFToday.com link above. His other matchup was against the Denver Broncos, the NFL's second-best run defense.

Ellington, whose offense also has had to rotate through quarterbacks amid Carson Palmer's shoulder/nerve woes, faces his most favorable matchup yet. The Raiders are the fifth-worst team against running backs above and in the bottom 10 against the run.

Ellington should be due to break some big plays that will make his fantasy numbers improve in better matchups like this one. He just hasn't been playing defenses that allow big plays in the running game.

Ellington is getting the touches as promised—and that's even with his foot issues. He has had 20-plus touches (rushes and receptions) in each of those past three buzzsaw matchups.

Carson Palmer told Kent Somers of The Arizona Republic:

"

It's nice to have that big Jonathan Dwyer, Rashard Mendenhall guy in there, but it's also nice to have a scat back that can make one quick cut. You think back some of Dre's runs, the touchdown in the red zone in San Francisco was an unbelievable cut and one that a 230-pound back cannot make.

"

Consider Ellington a must-start running back in all leagues here. This could be his breakthrough performance we have longed for since the promise of touches came earlier this spring.

Honorable Mention

Justin Forsett/Bernard Pierce/Lorenzo Taliaferro, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)

Ben Tate/Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Toby Gerhart/Storm Johnson, Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)

Giovani Bernard/Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (at Chicago Bears)

Jonathan Stewart, Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers)

Top WR Matchup Plays

Duane Burleson/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy WRs, per FFToday.com:

1. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (bye)
2. Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)
3. St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
4. New Orleans Saints (at Detroit Lions)
5. Buffalo Bills (vs. Minnesota Vikings)
6. Philadelphia Eagles (bye)
7. Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
8. Carolina Panthers (at Green Bay Packers)

Golden Tate, Detroit Lions (vs. New Orleans Saints)

Projected Stat Line: Seven catches for 100 yards and a touchdown

The matchup against the Saints, fourth-worst against fantasy wideouts, is one factor. The expected absence of Calvin Johnson (ankle) is the most significant one.

Megatron needs more time to heal, perhaps through the Lions' bye week, as he told ESPN.com's Michael Rothstein:

"

Like I said, there's no point in being on the field if I can't go out there and do what I got to do. Do what I got to do and do it to a high level that I'm used to doing it at.

[...] 

Not beating it up. Not getting out there, rolling it again, it definitely helps you. More and more you can stay off that particular area, the faster it can heal.

"

Tate is coming off a season-low 44 yards receiving last week against the Minnesota Vikings, but that came on the heels of back-to-back 100-yard games in Megatron's absence. Tate is getting the targets, and the matchup against the Saints should get him the fantasy points to place him among the leaders at the position for Week 7.

Tate told Dave Birkett of the Detroit Free Press:

"

I try to prepare like I'm a No. 1 no matter if I'm a No. 1 or a No. 5. That's how I am now. But, yeah, (with Johnson out) there's a feeling that I need to step up a little more than I have in the past, and especially last game wasn't my best game.

[...]

We want Calvin out there, but it is what it is. This is a very physical game and injuries are part of it, but we're going to be prepared, and I think the coaching staff and the scouting department have built a team that can win without some of the key players.

"

Honorable Mention

Percy Harvin, Seattle Seahawks (at St. Louis Rams)

Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)

Mike Wallace, Miami Dolphins (at Chicago Bears)

Julian Edelman/Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

Michael Crabtree/Stevie Johnson/Anquan Boldin, San Francisco 49ers (at Denver Broncos)

Michael Floyd/Larry Fitzgerald/John Brown, Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)

Kendall Wright/Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans (at Washington Redskins)

Top TE Matchup Plays

USA TODAY Sports

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy TEs, per FFToday.com:

1. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)
3. Seattle Seahawks (at St. Louis Rams)
4. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
5. New York Jets (at New England Patriots)
6. Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)
7. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Houston Texans)
8. Tennessee Titans (at Washington Redskins)

Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)

Projected Stat Line: Five catches for 60 yards and a touchdown

Reed was a smashing success in his season debut and return from a serious hamstring injury, despite playing close to just 50 percent of the snaps (35) in a timeshare with Niles Paul (32), according to ProFootballFocus.com (subscription required). Still, Reed was able to pull in eight passes for 92 yards on a team-high 11 targets.

This should only be a start for one of the game's burgeoning tight end stars. A matchup against the Titans, who have allowed the fourth-most touchdown receptions to the position (FFToday.com), promises to be even better.

Reed's importance extends far more than you might think on the surface, as ESPN.com's John Keim wrote Tuesday:

"

Reed was targeted on five third downs Sunday. Though only one was converted into a first down, another went for nine yards and resulted in fourth-and-inches (and a conversion). Last season, in nine games, Reed caught 14 passes on third down, with 13 going for a first down. In weeks 6-11 last year, Reed's longest stretch of the season and when he became a bigger focal point in the passing game, Washington converted 53.8 percent of third downs, according to ESPN Stats & Information. For the 2013 season, the Redskins converted 40.4 percent of third downs. 

And in weeks 12-17—after Reed was sidelined—they converted just 31.5 percent of third downs. Yes, he makes a difference.

"

Reed is a game changer for the Redskins and fantasy owners. Consider him a must-start in all leagues right now. 

Honorable Mention

Larry Donnell, New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)

Dwayne Allen/Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Jordan Cameron, Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Delanie Walker, Tennessee Titans (at Washington Redskins)

Tim Wright, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

Top D/ST Matchup Plays

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Here are the bottom eight teams versus fantasy D/STs, per FFToday.com:

1. St. Louis Rams (vs. Seattle Seahawks)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (vs. Cleveland Browns)
3. Minnesota Vikings (at Buffalo Bills)
4. New York Jets (at New England Patriots)
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (bye)
6. Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)
7. Miami Dolphins (at Chicago Bears)
8. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)

Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)

Projected Stat Line: Four sacks, three turnovers and a touchdown

We are going to be ridiculed for picking on the Raiders this week, but don't hate the player...er, writer...hate the game. Or the Raiders. Hate them, too.

The Raiders have the NFL's second-worst rushing offense, and the Cardinals have the best run defense. You know what this equates to? A whole lot of pressure on rookie quarterback Derek Carr.

Carr hasn't been hideously bad yet—heck, he was great against the San Diego Chargers last week with four touchdowns—but this should prove to be one of the weeks he will play like a rookie. We love the Cardinals defense pinning their ears back and befuddling the young QB here.

He has been sacked just three times in five games this season, as ESPN.com's Bill Williamson reported, and is praising his protection:

"

Oh my goodness, I can't [say] enough good things about them. I watched a certain rookie quarterback with the same last name about 12 years ago, and I'm glad that it's a little different now, because those guys play their tail off. These guys, they do a great job, they really do. They really care about keeping me clean, and I appreciate that, I really do appreciate it.

"

We will see if he is singing the same tune after Sunday. We bet he won't be. Start the Cardinals D/ST in all leagues possible.

Honorable Mention

Seattle Seahawks (at St. Louis Rams)

New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)

Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)

Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Buffalo Bills (vs. Minnesota Vikings)

Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Houston Texans)

Top Waiver-Wire Options

We reviewed the top waiver-wire additions in-depth Tuesday in B/R's Insider Notebook, but if you are looking for more, here is how the top 10 most-added players at CBSSports.com unfolded:

1. WR Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders
2. RB Brandon Bolden, New England Patriots
3. WR Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots
4. RB Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
5. TE Jordan Reed, Washington Redskins
6. WR Cecil Shorts, Jacksonville Jaguars
7. WR Malcom Floyd, San Diego Chargers
8. K Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona Cardinals
9. QB Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
10. TE Jace Amaro, New York Jets

CBS leagues tend to dive deeper into player pools than ESPN.com. Here are the top 10 additions there:

1. WR Mohamed Sanu, Cincinnati Bengals
2. RB Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens
3. D/ST Buffalo Bills
4. RB Branden Oliver, San Diego Chargers
5. D/ST Cleveland Browns
6. QB Joe Flacco, Baltimore Ravens
7. RB Andre Williams, New York Giants
8. RB Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns
9. K Matt Prater, Detroit Lions
10. WR Andre Holmes, Oakland Raiders

If you miss out on any of those wisdom-of-the crowd favorites, here are some choices by position we like because of favorable matchups (players owned in less than 80 percent of CBS leagues):

Quarterbacks

1. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals (at Oakland Raiders)
2. Kirk Cousins, Washington Redskins (vs. Tennessee Titans)
3. Alex Smith, Kansas City Chiefs (at San Diego Chargers)

Running Backs

1. RB Jeremy Hill, Cincinnati Bengals (at Indianapolis Colts)
2. RB Bernard Pierce, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
3. RB Isaiah Crowell, Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Wide Receivers

1. WR Brandon LaFell, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)
2. WR Odell Beckham Jr., New York Giants (at Dallas Cowboys)
3. WR Justin Hunter, Tennessee Titans (at Washington Redskins)

Tight Ends

1. TE Owen Daniels, Baltimore Ravens (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
2. TE Tim Wright, New England Patriots (vs. New York Jets)
3. TE Coby Fleener, Indianapolis Colts (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)

Defense/Special Teams

1. Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Houston Texans)
2. Dallas Cowboys (vs. New York Giants)
3. Cleveland Browns (at Jacksonville Jaguars)

Kickers

1. Matt Prater, Detroit Lions
2. Caleb Sturgis, Miami Dolphins
3. Chandler Catanzaro, Arizona Cardinals

Follow @EricMackFantasy

Eric Mack, one of the giants among fantasy writers, is the Fantasy Football Lead Writer for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter, where you can ask him endless questions about your team, rip him for his content and even challenge him to a head-to-head fantasy game.