Who Has the Best Chance to Be NFL's Cinderella Story of 2014?
When you try and assess which football teams can make waves in late December you have to give considerable weight to those that can both run the football and stop the run.
When the weather gets harsh and massive gusts of wind turn accurate QBs into the “Schofield Kid” from Clint Eastwood’s Unforgiven, this pass-happy league suddenly begins to favor a solid running game. And in turn, those who are capable of shutting down such advantages and making offenses one-dimensional are given a decided advantage.
Currently, there are only two teams who rank in the top five in rushing on both offense and defense.
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If you had to guess who would you think it would be?
Well, just to prove there is some validity to the value of a strong running game and run defense, I’ll disclose one of the teams right now: the defending champs. Yes, the Seattle Seahawks.
That’s not really much of a surprise, but it does illustrate how prioritizing your team to be tough in the trenches pays dividends in a league that supposedly gives all the incentives in the world to throw the ball.
Pretty soon, quarterbacks and receivers will have so much protection that defensive backs will need a legal advisor ear piece installed in their helmet rather than the coach’s plays.
With that said, passing teams can be quite successful in this league (the rulebook makes sure of that) and there are a variety of roads to take to the Super Bowl, but the formula for running and stopping the run is one that has persevered over the decades.
So, have you had enough time to figure out who the other team is?
J.E.T.S. Jets, Jets, Jets.
| 1. | Jets |
| 2. | Lions |
| 3. | Cardinals |
| 4. | Seahawks |
That’s right. The good old boys in green are actually ranked second in rushing yards and first in the NFL in stopping the run. I’m sure some of that has to do with them being so incredibly thin in the secondary that throwing the ball on them is just too easy—right?
Actually, the Jets are also ranked ninth in passing yards allowed. Apparently, Rex Ryan knows defense. But that team strength isn’t much of a surprise—or is it?
Maybe this entire Ryan-family lineage is showing us just how incredible they are as defensive minds, despite the fact the Saints defense is falling back down to earth after playing way above their heads in 2013.
Now back to the Jets. Don’t get too consumed with who they are at this very moment. They have a young quarterback showing signs of a positive maturation, a coach who has taken this franchise deep into the playoffs a few times and one of the best defensive lines in the NFL.
There are signs this team has yet to hit its full potential, but can it really hang with the super powers of the NFL in the latter part of the season? Does it have the offensive firepower to match Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers and Andrew Luck? This is no small task.
Perhaps they can rely on that talented defense to slow those high-powered offenses down just enough to give them a chance. But without speed rushers on the edge and a capable secondary, this defense just doesn’t seem built to hold up against the premier passing attacks on either side of the ball.
For this reason, I think we need to eliminate the Jets as the most likely candidate for a Cinderella-type season.
Before Thursday night’s blowout between the Giants and Redskins, there were several signs that Washington could be the next team to emerge from the NFL’s peasant class. But then it lost 45-14 to a team featuring an undrafted tight end (who actually looks like a promising player), a journeyman running back and a quarterback who has more interceptions (103) than any other QB in the NFL since 2009.
For all those out there who somehow thought Kirk Cousins was a better QB than Robert Griffin III, this is what you’re doing now.
People seem to forget that Cousins struggled last year, going 0-3 replacing Griffin and throwing just four touchdowns compared to seven interceptions. In addition, he completed 52 percent of his passes, leaving him with an embarrassing passer rating of only 58.4. For the record, RG3 has never had a string of games that terrible. On the flipside, Cousins has never had a stretch of games anywhere near as good as RG3 when he’s clicking.
Losing 45-14 to the Giants is an immediate disqualifier.
What’s that you say? Maybe the Giants can shove that tiny glass slipper on their foot and become royalty overnight—maybe not.
Eli Manning might be ascending as the West Coast offense begins to sink into his cranium, but look at what they’re working with. This has to be the least talented Giants team in the Tom Coughlin era. And although Coughlin has been known to pull off some magic over the years, even this seems too big of a task to handle.
At their best, the Giants should only hope to be competitive each Sunday. But then again, we’re talking about taking control over the NFC East. This is a division in so much flux that a 7-9 record could crown a champion–conceding to the idea the Eagles somehow fall apart in a Chip Kelly version of Mutiny on the Bounty, co-starring CB Cary Williams as Fletcher Christian.
In that case, I guess anything is possible. Well, almost anything.
The Tennessee Titans started out looking good, beating the Chiefs 26-10 in convincing fashion, but then Jake Locker committed the ultimate cartoon mistake and looked down, only to realize he had already run off the cliff.
It’s too bad because Tennessee is ranked second in passing yards allowed while averaging five yards per carry on offense, tied for fourth in the league in that statistic.
Since their Week 1 victory, the Titans have been outscored 59-17.
The Atlanta Falcons seem like a logical choice for a Cinderella story, so much so that it almost feels like cheating on technicality.
However, their defense is so underwhelming that I would never put any stock in their ability to win a playoff game. They could end up winning their division, though. Their competition would be the Saints and the Panthers, and both of those teams are flawed in their own way.
Acknowledging a team could win in a flawed division is not exactly what I had in mind for a Cinderella story. Besides, Atlanta’s offensive line and ability to run the ball are highly suspect—even though both of those components have looked decent at times. I predict diminishing returns for the Dirty Birds as the season wears on.
The Cleveland Browns are an interesting team at the moment, but they’re likely a year away from being a playoff team. With that said, there is a lot to get excited about up in the Dawg Pound. Perhaps they found a good one in head coach Mike Pettine, even though he was like their 95th choice.
So how have they been in position to win every game they’ve played so far?
Their star tight end, Jordan Cameron, has been hurt, their best player, Josh Gordon, is suspended, their starting running back is out and 30 teams have given up fewer yards on defense.
On second thought, is there much to be excited about in Cleveland?
I say yes. If they haven’t lost by more than three points with all of that stacked against them, they must have more depth than we realize and a scheme that pulls the most from the talent available.
I partially retract that statement. Is there no one who can help Barkevious Mingo get his hands on a quarterback? He’s played over 100 snaps and doesn’t even have a single quarterback knockdown, per Pro Football Focus (paid site).
I think we can quickly disregard the Raiders, Bucs and Jags; this is simply just not their year. Enough said.
What about the Vikings? They’ve certainly improved on defense and are preparing to get their future underway with rookie QB Teddy Bridgewater set to make his first start during Week 4.
Will we see Adrian Peterson again this year after being deactivated?
If the answer to that question is no, this team can do no better than remain competitive and steal a few wins here and there. But the big mystery will be how well Bridgewater can perform under the tutelage and positive reinforcement of offensive coordinator Norv Turner.
In an effort to move away from the Vikings as a candidate, AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com ranks the Vikings 30th overall in team efficiency based on strength of schedule and other advanced metrics.
Detroit is quietly playing impressive football right now. Thanks in large part to a dominating defensive line, this defense is ranked first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Yep, you read that correctly.
Last year, Detroit went 7-9 before overhauling the coaching staff. Everything seems to be in place for this team to stake a claim as the NFL's Cinderella.
My reservations relate to their finesse style of offense coupled with them playing in a doom.
However, I must admit that, statistically, the Lions are a far more complete team than the two teams I’m going to give a bit more focus toward.
With that said, Detroit is certainly a team to keep an eye on moving forward and one that we may have to revisit with more attention later. As for now, the two teams I’m going to mention are set to face off on Sunday, making their evaluation as potential sleepers more pressing.
The Battle for Relevancy
The Texans have considerable talent on their roster, but just can’t seem to play up to their talent level, especially on defense. Ryan Fitzpatrick is doing a serviceable job, although he did throw three picks in Week 3 against the Giants.
Man, are the Giants lucky or do they really know how to pick off QBs? They have seven interceptions in their last two games alone.
I will say this about them: The secondary is one area on that roster they seemed to upgrade this offseason.
Anyway, Houston is a team that certainly has my attention. This week, it faces another intriguing club in the Buffalo Bills.
If you ask me, these are the two teams with enough impressive moving parts to put it all together and become a force to be reckoned with in December.
But each of these teams also shares a huge question mark. Can their quarterback ultimately serve as an asset moving forward?
When you look at the 2-1 Bills and their QB situation with EJ Manuel at the helm, you see a guy who has the tools to be a very productive weapon for his team. But he’s obviously still learning, or so Bills fans hope—especially considering he was drafted in the first round to be the face of their franchise.
According to Football Outsiders' DYAR rankings, Manuel is the 23rd-ranked QB.
He seems to struggle with his deep-ball accuracy and doesn’t play with enough urgency or fire to get his team to rally around him.
Will he ever figure out how to stop thinking so much and just play?
As for the Texans, they have a much better idea of who they have at QB, but that understanding doesn’t bring more comfort to their situation.
Basically, he is a stopgap QB looking to make the most of his situation and buy himself more time in the NFL, eventually as a very serviceable and experienced backup. Don’t get me wrong, there is a high demand for experienced backups in the NFL, but can Fitzpatrick do enough with his limited physical tools to turn this team into a legitimate contender?
When you phrase the question like that, it doesn’t elicit much confidence in the team’s chances. However, at some point, Jadeveon Clowney will be paired up with J.J. Watt on the defensive line. That thought is both scary for opponents and intriguing for the team’s possibilities.
How are they going to double either one of those guys without leaving the other to dominate?
But Houston’s defense needs to play a little better. In total yards allowed it's ranked 25th, but in defensive efficiency, per AdvancedFootballAnalytics.com, it's ranked eighth.
Buffalo has a well-established defensive line that finished second in sacks a year ago and returns all of its key contributors.
On offense, they feature one of the most talented backfields in the NFL and an exciting rookie receiver in Sammy Watkins. The talent on this team is certainly playoff worthy. I know, I know—the Bills have the NFL’s longest playoff drought; they haven’t made the postseason since 1999.
Furthermore, taking the division away from the Patriots seems nearly impossible at this point—New England has ruled it for a decade now.
But here’s another reason the Bills can surprise everyone and become the Cinderella team. Aside from the talent they have at the skilled positions, they may very well have the best combination of offensive and defensive linemen in the entire league.
If you haven’t watched the Bills play yet, you have to see the way their big men dominate the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball (maybe not so much in the Chargers game).
Because of this and the rest of the supporting cast, EJ doesn’t have to be great. If he can just provide what Alex Smith gave to the Chiefs last year, expect the Bills’ playoff drought to finally end.
Come Sunday, either the Texans or the Bills will take a big step in the right direction, while the other will likely fade away as an afterthought. Add in the fact that Ryan Fitzpatrick will be facing his former team.
Both teams are currently facing adversity after suffering losses during Week 3. A win here will demonstrate the resolve and character necessary for long-term success.
For this reason, I believe the winner of the Bills and Texans game will go on to become this year’s Cinderella team.
Ryan Riddle is a former NFL player and writes for Bleacher Report.
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