NFL Week 4 Picks: Latest Predictions for Updated Spreads

Early NFL Week 4 spreads are a trap.

As in, a trap bettors should look to avoid. Those who digested their lesson last week surely understand where this is going. There, acceptable major lines such as New England over Oakland in the neighborhood of two touchdowns made perfect sense.

Until they took the field.

This week provides the same potholes. All of two contests see a team favored by more than seven points. This does not mean you should avoid the early-week offerings altogether, but tread lightly and make decisions after extensive homework.

Let's take a look.

NFL Week 4 Picks Against the Spread

Matchup	Spread	Pick ATS	Reason
NY Giants at Washington (Thurs., Sept. 25)	WAS (-6)	NY Giants	See analysis below.
Miami at Oakland	MIA (-3.5)	Oakland	Quarterback controversy and a shaky offensive line? Oakland beats the spread at least.
Carolina at Baltimore	BAL (-2.5)	Carolina	See analysis below.
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh	PIT (-8)	Tampa Bay	Pittsburgh is down three key starters on defense, and Mike Glennon has enough talent to use a strong cast of wideouts.
Green Bay at Chicago	CHI (-1.5)	Green Bay	Chicago receivers continue to fight through injuries. Eddie Lacy will have no problems on the ground.
Buffalo at Houston	HOU (-3)	Buffalo	Sans Arian Foster, Houston is going to struggle against a strong Buffalo defense.
Tennessee at Indianapolis	IND (-6.5)	Indianapolis	The Colts have discovered a running game at the right time against an elite pass defense.
Detroit at NY Jets	PK	Detroit	A matchup of two elite run defenses defers to the team with the better quarterback. Does anything else really need to be said?
Jacksonville at San Diego	SD (-13.5)	Jacksonville	Blake Bortles is a rookie, but he is no Chad Henne. San Diego is mediocre against the pass, suggesting Bortles can do just enough to beat a huge spread.
Atlanta at Minnesota	ATL (-2.5)	Atlanta	Matt Ryan will have a strong day as his opposition starts a rookie under center.
Philadelphia at San Francisco	SF (-4.5)	San Francisco	At home, expect the San Francisco offense to have few issues with a shaky Philadelphia defense. Frank Gore and Co. can control this one.
New Orleans at Dallas	NO (-2.5)	Dallas	DeMarco Murray is in for another huge day against a miserable run defense.
New England at Kansas City (Mon., Sept. 29)	NE (-3.5)	New England	Tom Brady has been mediocre, but Kansas City struggles to even use the best players on the roster at times.

Odds via Odds Shark as of 10 p.m. ET, Sept. 23.

NY Giants at Washington (-6) (Thurs., Sept. 25)

Matt Rourke/Associated Press

Thursday Night Football is always tough to predict, especially when two divisional rivals meet.

Well, except for last week. (For those who turned it off after all of 10 minutes, Atlanta beat Tampa Bay 56-14.)

This one figures to be highly entertaining, at the very least. While Washington is without Robert Griffin III, backup Kirk Cousins has done an admirable job to the point of RG3's starting gig being very much in question upon his return.

Meanwhile, New York touts one of the NFL's best rush defenses, and the new offense seems to have finally found a rhythm.

Cousins has taken advantage of two rather porous defenses in Jacksonville and Philadelphia, but still, throwing for 427 yards and three touchdowns to one interception against the Eagles is impressive—as was pretty much everything about his game, as Grant Paulsen of 106.7 The Fan illustrated at one point:

Things get worse against the Giants, as the New York defensive line has already generated 36 quarterback hurries, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required). So while Cousins certainly has the ability to get deep passes to DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon, he may not have the time Thursday.

He's going to need it, too, as Eli Manning and the Giants are finally on track offensively. The less popular Manning threw for 234 yards and a pair of scores, while back Rashad Jennings rumbled for 176 yards and a score.

Washington does rank in the top 10 against the pass and rush, but players such as corner DeAngelo Hall, defensive end Jason Hatcher and linebacker Brian Orakpo all sustained injuries last week.

The healthier team with a proven quarterback over the course of many years seems like the safer bet, no?

Prediction: New York 27, Washington 24

Carolina at Baltimore (-2.5)

Steve Smith gets his shot at Carolina. Strap in for a wild ride.

Smith looks nothing like a 35-year-old wideout, as his numbers through three games show:

Week	OPP	REC	TGTS	YDS	TD
1	CIN	7	14	118	1
2	PIT	6	10	71	0
3	CLE	5	7	101	0

Sour grapes or not, Smith is sure to come out fired up, as coach John Harbaugh told Brian Bower:

"

Harbaugh on @89SteveSmith vs. #Panthers: "He’s going to be fired up, but he knows how to focus it the right way.” #Ravens

— Brian Bower (@sportguyRSR) September 23, 2014"

The Ravens could certainly use another strong week from Smith as they encounter a strong Carolina pass defense. Luke Kuechly and the Panthers defense looked miserable in a loss to Pittsburgh last week, allowing 264 yards and a score on the ground—on a 7.8 per-carry average.

Unfortunately, the situation at running back continues to be a mess for Baltimore. Rookie Lorenzo Taliaferro busted out for 91 yards and a touchdown last week after receiving no totes in the team's first two games. Whether he can take advantage of the Carolina defense is a question worth asking.

Not that the Panthers will be running the ball much, as the team literally has no healthy backs to speak of—meaning everything yet again falls on the shoulders of Cam Newton.

The good news in that regard is that the Ravens also struggle against the pass (allowing 262.3 yards per game), and Newton's previously thought weak wideout corps has come through in a big way, led by rookie Kelvin Benjamin, who already has 253 yards and a pair of scores on 16 catches.

The allure to ride with Joe Flacco at home with an angry Smith as his No. 1 is certainly there, but the Panthers' strengths will be able to capitalize on the Ravens' weaknesses on the way to a close win.

Prediction: Panthers 27, Ravens 23

Note: Stats courtesy of NFL.com. Advanced metrics via Pro Football Focus (subscription required).