Start 'Em, Sit 'Em Week 3: Debating Difficult Fantasy Football Lineup Decisions
One of the great quandaries in American sports is the never-ending debate fantasy owners have with themselves about who to start and who to sit. It sounds like a simple task, but there are always numbers you can use to manipulate what your brain thinks.
Fortunately, we are here to make your life easier. Instead of poring over all the numbers yourself to make a decision, we've done it for you and come up with a strong list of names to start or sit. Our formula doesn't guarantee 100 percent success, but it is a nice blueprint to follow if you want to win a title.
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The names on this list aren't going to be the obvious ones. Do you really need someone to tell you that Drew Brees is going to beat up on the Minnesota Vikings defense? We want to answer the big debates you are having about key players for Week 3.
So, without further ado, here are our picks for the start 'em, sit 'em debate in Week 3.
Start 'Em: Colin Kaepernick, QB, San Francisco 49ers
How can Colin Kaepernick possibly be worthy of a start this week against the Arizona Cardinals defense after the debacle against the Chicago Bears?
I'm so glad you asked.
First, while you can't throw out the turnovers, Kaepernick did have 248 passing yards and 64 rushing yards. The 49ers don't throw the ball much, as everyone knows, but Kap has completed nearly 65 percent of his attempts.
Now, about those turnovers. Michael David Smith of Pro Football Talk pointed out that Kaepernick's history of throwing the ball to the other team isn't very long:
Bringing things down to the micro level and looking at past performances against Arizona, Kaepernick has fared very well against the Cardinals throughout his career. He's thrown for 838 yards with six touchdowns and one interception in three games.
On top of those numbers, Arizona's defense has been vulnerable against the pass this year. The Cardinals rank 22nd in passing yards allowed and have given up three touchdown passes in two games.
Kaepernick is also a bad stylistic matchup for the Cardinals. Last year, according to Pro Football Focus, no team blitzed more than Arizona.
In blitz situations last year, San Francisco's quarterback had a passer rating of 98.3, with 18 of his 21 touchdown throws coming when teams sent extra rushers, according to Pro Football Focus, via Neil Greenberg of The Washington Post.
There are going to be weeks where Kaepernick isn't worth starting. He's a volatile quarterback who still struggles at times adjusting to opposing defenses, but this is one game where it's OK to trust the 49ers signal-caller.
Sit 'Em: Kirk Cousins, QB, Washington
Following the trend of players not to trust based on one week, Kirk Cousins is going to get a lot of love this week after throwing for 250 yards and two touchdowns in relief of Robert Griffin III. On the surface, those numbers look great.
However, the elephant in the room is that Cousins was doing it against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The Jaguars have given up 75 points in their last six quarters. This week, Washington's quarterback has the opportunity to play against Philadelphia.
No one will claim that the Eagles are the standard by which defense is measured in the NFL, though they haven't been all bad. If we take out Week 1 against Jacksonville, since we've established that that's basically a glorified exhibition, the Eagles pass defense against Andrew Luck was stellar.
While Luck had three touchdown passes, all of them came on throws inside the 5-yard line, and he only averaged 5.1 yards per attempt. The Indianapolis Colts' running game was the problem for Chip Kelly's defense, with 169 yards.
We've heard all sorts of stories about Cousins being a viable NFL quarterback, with Joe Theismann even saying the third-year quarterback would have beat out Griffin if there was an open competition.
Yet in three starts last year with a chance to prove himself, Cousins didn't do a whole lot. He threw for nearly 400 yards against the Atlanta Falcons because that defense was terrible but also had two interceptions. He failed to break 200 yards in the last two games, against the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants, throwing three interceptions.
If Cousins' breakthrough last week carries over to this week, I'll happily admit I was wrong. Until then, color me skeptical about his future as a viable fantasy starter.
Start 'Em: Lamar Miller, RB, Miami Dolphins
It's not sexy analysis, but sometimes, all you have to say is a player has the right matchup to succeed. With Knowshon Moreno on the shelf with a dislocated elbow, Lamar Miller's role in Miami's offense will increase. He's been steady through two weeks, with 11 carries in each game and 105 yards on the ground.
Even though you don't like to beat up on a team when it's down, Andy Reid's Chiefs are a mess, and the results highlight their problems. The Chiefs lost Derrick Johnson and Mike DeVito in Week 1, putting their run defense at a disadvantage.
In two games, the Chiefs have allowed 250 rushing yards. If you want to look for a positive, they haven't allowed a rushing touchdown. But that's got more to do with the fact that their secondary is also bad and incapable of stopping anyone.
Don't use Miller as your No. 1 running back, but if you are scrambling to find a No. 2 or flex player, he figures to be one of the most valuable on the board in Week 3.
Sit 'Em: Eddie Lacy, RB, Green Bay Packers
Fantasy owners loved Eddie Lacy so much coming off his 1,178-yard, 11-touchdown performance as a rookie in 2013 that he became the No. 5 player taken in most drafts, according to FantasyPros.com.
Two weeks into his second season, Lacy has suffered a concussion in Week 1 in Seattle and gone up against Rex Ryan's top-ranked run defense in Week 2. It's no surprise that he's only got 77 rushing yards on 25 carries.
So, what's Lacy's reward for Week 3? The Detroit Lions' second-ranked run defense and a front four that includes defensive tackles like 305-pound Ndamukong Suh, 308-pound Nick Fairley and 312-pound C.J. Mosley. Those big boys in the middle are a big reason why the Lions are allowing 2.5 yards per carry.
Good luck.
Eventually, Lacy will jump back into must-start territory, like next week when the Packers play the Bears. But he's basically going to give fantasy owners who made him a top-five pick nothing to show for it through three weeks.
Start 'Em: Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Going back to the argument for starting Lamar Miller, sometimes the matchups are so sweet and rich they must be fattening. Whenever you see the Jaguars listed under the opponent section, you pounce like a lion.
After putting together a good first half against Philadelphia in Week 1, the Jaguars have given up 75 points. Philadelphia's Jeremy Maclin torched them with 97 yards and one touchdown on four receptions.
Reggie Wayne has gotten off to a slow start in 2014. He averaged less than 11 yards per reception on nine catches against Denver in Week 1, then was a forgotten man against Philadelphia with three catches and 28 yards.
Andrew Luck is still targeting Wayne plenty to suggest the production will increase. He's got 12 receptions on 20 targets, just a matter of waiting for the big plays to return.
Not surprisingly, he's had tremendous success in his career against Jacksonville. In one game against the Jaguars last season, Wayne had his only 100-yard game and one of his two touchdown catches.
They say that matchups are everything in fantasy football. This week, Wayne has as good of one as there is.
Sit 'Em: Wes Welker, WR, Denver Broncos
In what was certainly welcome news for the Broncos leading up to their game in Seattle, Wes Welker's suspension was lifted when the NFL and players' association reached an agreement on a revised drug policy.
After all, Peyton Manning has six touchdown passes and no interceptions without Welker in the slot. Of course, there's nothing really satisfying about returning to play a game against the Seahawks defense on the team's home turf.
Welker was one of the few bright spots in the Super Bowl for Denver, with 10 receptions and 84 yards. That would seem to give him some fantasy value this week, right?
Matthew Berry of ESPN listed Welker among the wide receivers he hates this week, citing the bad matchup and another reason involving his quarterback:
"Peyton Manning is a timing guy, and it's been a while since they've been on the same field together. Add to that the obvious bad matchup on the road at Seattle. Since last season, no team has allowed fewer receiving yards or fantasy points to opposing wide receivers than the Seahawks. Not a top-20 guy this week.
"
Manning's favorite weapons this season have been Emmanuel Sanders (14 receptions) and Julius Thomas (11 receptions, six touchdowns). Don't expect that to change, especially if Demaryius Thomas is lined up on the left side with Richard Sherman draped all over him.
As we saw last week against the San Diego Chargers, if the Seahawks are going to give up points to pass-catchers, it's going to be with a bigger tight end who can't be covered by a linebacker.
Welker will be eased back into the offense after missing the last two games. Keep him on your bench until the Broncos return from the bye in Week 5 against Arizona.
If you want to talk sports, hit me up on Twitter.
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