Fantasy Football Week 2: Rankings, Projections and Waiver-Wire Tips

It took roughly 13 minutes and 35 seconds of the 2014 NFL season for folks to begin hating fantasy football again. John Kuhn's vultured rushing touchdown in Thursday night's opener paved the way for what's been a typical batch of Week 1 action—angering, confounding, thrilling, captivating, befuddling, joyless and joyous.

At the same damn time. (At the same damn time.)      

For fantasy football owners, I mean [kicks dirt with disgust]. For every Peyton Manning living up to his preseason potential, there was an Aaron Rodgers. For every Le'Veon Bell flashing his newfound pass-catching skills, there was a Trent Richardson slowly devolving into a zero-tool running back. For every—OK, you get the point.

The NFL is inherently high-variance, and so is fantasy football. As someone who used a high draft choice on Rodgers and then backed him last week despite the whole going on the road at Seattle thing, let's just say things could have gone better. But, I mean, it's not like I cried myself to sleep at night while jamming to Taylor Swift's new single and eating Ramen with my bare hands over it or anything. (It was mac-and-cheese.)

Because it's still Monday, the amount of knowledge we have at our disposal is relatively small. On most weeks, there will be one game remaining on the schedule and very little postgame injury information. This week, there's two games and next to no information. So please keep in mind any highlighted players when checking out the rankings; it means they're either an injury risk heading into Week 2 or are on the schedule for Monday.

Anyway, rankings time.

Thursday, Sept. 11	Time (ET)
Sunday, Sept. 14	Time (ET)
Monday, Sept. 15	Time (ET)
Pittsburgh at Baltimore	8:25 p.m.
Miami at Buffalo	1:00 p.m.
Jacksonville at Washington	1:00 p.m.
Dallas at Tennessee	1:00 p.m.
Arizona at NY Giants	1:00 p.m.
New England at Minnesota	1:00 p.m.
New Orleans at Cleveland	1:00 p.m.
Atlanta at Cincinnati	1:00 p.m.
Detroit at Carolina	1:00 p.m.
St. Louis at Tampa Bay	4:05 p.m.
Seattle at San Diego	4:05 p.m.
Houston at Oakland	4:25 p.m.
NY Jets at Green Bay	4:25 p.m.
Kansas City at Denver	4:25 p.m.
Chicago at San Francisco	8:30 p.m.
Philadelphia at Indianapolis	8:30 p.m.

Rank	Player	Projections
1	Peyton Manning, DEN	24 Points
2	Drew Brees, NO	23 Points
3	Aaron Rodgers, GB	23 Points
4	Andrew Luck, IND	21 Points
5	Tom Brady, NE	21 Points
6	Matthew Stafford, DET	20 Points
7	Colin Kaepernick, SF	20 Points
8	Matt Ryan, ATL	19 Points
9	Nick Foles, PHI	19 Points
10	Tony Romo, DAL	19 Points
11	Cam Newton, CAR	17 Points
12	Russell Wilson, SEA	17 Points
13	Jay Cutler, CHI	16 Points
14	Andy Dalton, CIN	15 Points
15	Philip Rivers, SD	15 Points
16	Robert Griffin III, WAS	14 Points
17	Ben Roethlisberger, PIT	13 Points
18	Eli Manning, NYG	13 Points
19	Joe Flacco, BAL	12 Points
20	Geno Smith, NYJ	12 Points

Top Dog: Peyton Manning, Denver Broncos

I threw up a shoutout to Ric Flair in last week's rankings, and the same saying applies a week later. Manning is the most consistently excellent quarterback in football. Until we have a legitimate sample that points in another player's direction, Manning will be the No. 1 fantasy quarterback—at least outside matchups of Seahawksian difficulty.

The five-time MVP, who threw for 269 yards and three touchdowns in Week 1, stays at home for a Sunday afternoon matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs. Yes, those same Chiefs who allowed Jake Locker to complete two-thirds of his passes and be the NFL's fourth-best fantasy quarterback. At the risk of giving a #hotsportstake, I think it's safe to say Peyton Manning is better at football than Jake Locker.

He'll be fine.

Sleeper: Tony Romo, Dallas Cowboys

Tony Gutierrez/Associated Press

Typical caveats about quarterbacks being "sleepers" apply, but you'll have a tough time finding anyone to call Tony Romo a top-10 anything after Sunday's implosion against the 49ers. Romo looked terrible—and not in the way uninformed folks on social media typically describe. He was downright bad, forcing a multitude of throws into deep coverage en route to a 281-yard, one-touchdown, three-interception performance.

At the risk of falling victim to the gambler's fallacy, Romo has to be better this week. He's going on the road to face a Titans secondary that outperformed expectations in Week 1 but should settle in as a below-average unit. Plus, for all of his foibles, Romo has been a consistently solid fantasy option for nearly a decade. Unless he is going full Delhomme, look for a bounce back.

Bust: Robert Griffin III, Washington

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

Jay Gruden isn't allowing him to run. It's that simple. The new Washington coach has consigned his quarterback—his out-of-this-world athletic and all-time dynamic quarterback—to a pocket-passing role. Griffin rushed the ball three times for two yards in Washington's 17-6 loss to the Texans on Sunday.

Not even the preseason bluster about forcing Griffin into a more traditional role could prepare anyone for how Griffin looked. His passes rarely went more than a few yards past the line of scrimmage. His time spent out of the pocket came only when scrambling for his life. It was as if Gruden's system took everything that made Griffin special and went out of its way to murder it.

Until we see less Robert Griffin playing Andy Dalton and more Robert Griffin playing Robert Griffin, he's borderline unusable.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Marshawn Lynch, SEA	20 Points
2	LeSean McCoy, PHI	20 Points
3	Adrian Peterson, MIN	19 Points
4	DeMarco Murray, DAL	18 Points
5	Jamaal Charles, KC	17 Points
6	Arian Foster, HOU	16 Points
7	Matt Forte, CHI	15 Points
8	Montee Ball, DEN	14 Points
9	Le'Veon Bell, PIT	14 Points
10	Giovani Bernard, CIN	13 Points
11	Eddie Lacy, GB	13 Points
12	Alfred Morris, WAS	12 Points
13	Frank Gore, SF	12 Points
14	Zac Stacy, STL	12 Points
15	Doug Martin, TB	11 Points
16	Toby Gerhart, JAX	11 Points
17	Andre Ellington, ARI	10 Points
18	Reggie Bush, DET	10 Points
19	Knowshon Moreno, MIA	10 Points
20	Rashad Jennings, NYG	9 Points
21	C.J. Spiller, BUF	9 Points
22	Terrance West, CLE	9 Points
23	Mark Ingram, NO	8 Points
24	Shane Vereen, NE	8 Points
25	Justin Forsett, BAL	8 Points
26	Chris Johnson, NYJ	8 Points
27	Steven Jackson, ATL	8 Points
28	DeAngelo Williams, CAR	7 Points
29	Darren Sproles, PHI	7 Points
30	Shonn Greene, TEN	6 Points

Top Dog: Marshawn Lynch, Seattle Seahawks

So much for Beast Mode slowing down as he reaches his late 20s. Lynch was in midseason form against an overwhelmed Packers defense, scoring two touchdowns and rushing for 110 yards on 20 carries in Seattle's 36-16 win. He was the top-scoring running back in all formats and should have an opportunity to repeat next week against San Diego.

The Chargers finished 31st last season in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA. While they made a few promising changes and should be better in 2014, they'll top out as a league-average unit on their best days. Arizona's sputtering offense won't give San Diego much of a test Monday night. Given how much Lynch flashed last week, the 10-day rest should do nothing but help.

Sleeper: Knowshon Moreno, Miami Dolphins

Skeptical of Moreno? You should be. He's burned more people than the final season of Lost. He's been in a perpetual purgatory for his entire career, stuck between sleeper and bust—with no one knowing which player will show up on a weekly basis.

Ranked outside the top 30 by most services, Moreno scampered his way to the tune of 134 yards and a touchdown against a supposedly improved Patriots defense. None of the gains were longer than 15 yards, but Moreno consistently barreled his way through to the second level. Lamar Miller, who had a solid game himself, had less than half (24-11) of Moreno's carries.

It's a risk trusting him two weeks in a row, but given the dearth of backs receiving regular carries, Moreno is at the very least a flex play in Week 2.

Bust: Trent Richardson, Indianapolis Colts

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Words of advice: Unless Trent Richardson Freaky Fridays with Adrian Peterson and you personally are on hand to see the body switch happen—yes, you have to see it live; hearsay doesn't count—do not put him in your fantasy football lineup. Do. Not. Do. It.

Thanks.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	A.J. Green, CIN	16 Points
2	Calvin Johnson, DET	15 Points
3	Demaryius Thomas, DEN	15 Points
4	Dez Bryant, DAL	14 Points
5	Julio Jones, ATL	14 Points
6	Brandon Marshall, CHI	13 Points
7	Antonio Brown, PIT	12 Points
8	Alshon Jeffery, CHI	12 Points
9	Jordy Nelson, GB	12 Points
10	Andre Johnson, HOU	11 Points
11	Victor Cruz, NYG	11 Points
12	Cordarrelle Patterson, MIN	11 Points
13	Keenan Allen, SD	10 Points
14	Larry Fitzgerald, ARI	10 Points
15	Emmanuel Sanders, DEN	10 Points
16	Randall Cobb, GB	9 Points
17	Vincent Jackson, TB	9 Points
18	Percy Harvin, SEA	9 Points
19	Jeremy Maclin, PHI	8 Points
20	Brandin Cooks, NO	8 Points
21	Pierre Garcon, WAS	8 Points
22	Michael Floyd, ARI	8 Points
23	Roddy White, ATL	7 Points
24	Julian Edelman, NE	7 Points
25	Kendall Wright, TEN	7 Points
26	Marques Colston, NO	7 Points
27	T.Y. Hilton, IND	7 Points
28	Reggie Wayne, IND	7 Points
29	Steve Smith, BAL	6 Points
30	Mike Wallace, MIA	6 Points
31	DeSean Jackson, WAS	6 Points
32	Anquan Boldin, SF	5 Points
33	Eric Decker, NYJ	5 Points
34	Michael Crabtree, SF	5 Points
35	Torrey Smith, BAL	5 Points
36	DeAndre Hopkins, HOU	5 Points
37	Golden Tate, DET	5 Points
38	Kelvin Benjamin, CAR	4 Points
39	Cecil Shorts, JAX	4 Points
40	Markus Wheaton, PIT	4 Points

Top Dog: A.J. Green, Cincinnati Bengals

Green had one of the most spectacular plays this weekend that didn't involve giving a punter the Sweet Chin Music. His 77-yard pitch-juggle-and-catch with Andy Dalton proved to be the game-winning score in the Bengals' 23-16 defeat of Baltimore, and his juke on safety Darian Stewart was Allen Iverson-esque.

While most of Green's fantasy value was tied to that catch—and hence the definition of high-variance—we have quite the long sample that says he'll be just fine going forward. Cincinnati hosts an Atlanta secondary in Week 2 that could nicely be described as less than adequate. The Saints carved them for 333 passing yards on Sunday and would have had more than a lone touchdown if they weren't so proficient running in the red zone.

Green should have a monster day.

Sleeper: Emmanuel Sanders, Denver Broncos

Justin Edmonds/Getty Images

For as long as Wes Welker is suspended, Sanders is a top-20 receiver. He was second behind only Demaryius Thomas (11) with nine targets on Sunday and stayed on the field almost no matter what package Denver was sending out. 

The former Steeler is a must-start in PPR leagues. He's going to get a ton of underneath targets, and the touchdowns will come if Welker's 2013 campaign is any indication. I made the mistake of underestimating him last week; I won't do the same in Week 2 with a solid matchup against Kansas City.

(An aside: Whenever Sanders has the two-touchdown game that's assuredly coming one of these weeks, sell high, sell high, sell high. He'll be the third target whenever Welker comes back, and someone might be high enough on him to give up a starting running back.)

Bust: Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars

We're all grown-ups here. (Unless you're not, which, well, just pretend you are for my sake.)

We all know Allen Hurns will not end up the top-scoring fantasy receiver in any other week of 2014. We all know the only reason he received the spot start against Philly was Cecil Shorts sat out with an injury. Shorts was a game-time decision Sunday and odds are he'll be in the lineup next week in Washington. Even if he isn't, subbing Hurns for Shorts on this rankings list still makes the proper overarching point.

Outside of the biggest leagues on the planet, Hurns should not be in anyone's starting lineup. He's a player who should be monitored on the waiver wire (about that more anon), but do yourself a favor and go back a year. You know, when Kellen Winslow was the Jets' leading receiver and Jerome Simpson was the hottest name available in leagues?

Deep breaths, everyone.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Jimmy Graham, NO	14 Points
2	Julius Thomas, DEN	13 Points
3	Rob Gronkowski, NE	11 Points
4	Vernon Davis, SF	8 Points
5	Greg Olsen, CAR	8 Points
6	Jason Witten, DAL	7 Points
7	Jordan Cameron, CLE	7 Points
8	Martellus Bennett, CHI	7 Points
9	Dennis Pitta, BAL	7 Points
10	Kyle Rudolph, MIN	6 Points
11	Zach Ertz, PHI	5 Points
12	Antonio Gates, SD	5 Points
13	Lardarius Green, SD	5 Points
14	Delanie Walker, TEN	4 Points
15	Charles Clay, MIA	4 Points

Top Dog: Jimmy Graham, New Orleans Saints

Three touchdowns in a single evening is a solid resume booster for Julius Thomas. Just not enough to knock off the game's most consistent tight end. Graham caught eight of his 10 targets from Drew Brees, finishing with 82 yards. His eight fantasy points currently tie him for the ninth-best tight end on the board.

So why does he stay at No. 1? Because that's the low end of what he's going to put up on a weekly basis. Graham wasn't even much of a focal point for New Orleans on Sunday; he basically got to eight points by his sheer presence. Only three times all last season did Graham score below eight points in a single week.

With the Saints headed to Cleveland in Week 2, look for Graham to reassert himself in a big way.

Sleeper: Niles Paul, Washington

Patric Schneider/Associated Press

Continuing our two-week trend of touting tight ends that are unranked on our board, Paul might be a solid spot play in deeper leagues. Washington starter Jordan Reed suffered a hamstring injury against Houston and Jay Gruden's tone with reporters after the game indicated he could be on the shelf for a while.

Considering Washington seems interested in only throwing the ball within an arm's length, that should open up a semi-consistent role for Paul, who had 86 yards on four receptions on Sunday. Assuming Reed misses at least one game, there are worse replacement options.

Bust: Charles Clay, Miami Dolphins

Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

[Pours out a little liquor for Clay's fantasy value] After buying in on Clay being a possible sleeper in 2014, I'm already a week away from abandoning ship. He was targeted six times but was rarely Ryan Tannehill's first read on any play, eventually finishing with two receptions for 27 yards. The Dolphins have a solid matchup this week against Buffalo, but no one should feel comfortable keeping Clay in their starting lineup.

Rank	Team	Opponent	Projection
1	Arizona Cardinals	vs. New York Giants	14 Points
2	Seattle Seahawks	at San Diego Chargers	13 Points
3	Carolina Panthers	vs. Detroit Lions	12 Points
4	Green Bay Packers	vs. New York Jets	12 Points
5	Houston Texans	at Oakland Raiders	12 Points
6	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	vs. St. Louis Rams	11 Points
7	St. Louis Rams	at Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10 Points
8	Denver Broncos	vs. Kansas City Chiefs	10 Points
9	Miami Dolphins	at Buffalo Bills	9 Points
10	San Francisco 49ers	vs. Chicago Bears	8 Points
11	Cincinnati Bengals	vs. Atlanta Falcons	8 Points
12	New England Patriots	at Minnesota Vikings	7 Points
13	Jacksonville Jaguars	at Washington	7 Points
14	New Orleans Saints	at Cleveland Browns	6 Points
15	Pittsburgh Steelers	at Baltimore Ravens	6 Points

Top Dog: Arizona Cardinals

Until Eli Manning proves he can throw the ball more consistently to his own team than the opponent, spot-starting against the Giants is far from the worst idea in the world. We'll get a better sense of how Manning adapts to Ben McAdoo's system Monday night; it's equally possible this ranking looks overzealous or like a no-brainer by Tuesday morning.

With the Cardinals also in action, this is a ranking based more on preseason assumptions than anything else. 

Sleeper: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

The Bucs are owned in barely more than half of ESPN standard leagues. That needs to change by the time you read this sentence. Depending on how Shaun Hill progresses from his thigh injury, Tampa Bay may very well face off against Austin Davis making his first professional start next week.

Davis looked fine after taking over for Hill against Minnesota, but the Vikings also wound up with a pick-six and let their foot off the gas a bit when the game got out of hand. I mean, I'm sure it's possible the Rams have stumbled into another Kurt Warner situation here. I'm also sure it's possible Adam Sandler is capable of making a good movie.

I'm just not banking on it.

Bust: Tennessee Titans

Ed Zurga/Associated Press

The Titans picked off Alex Smith three times in Week 1. They're going against the Cowboys, whose quarterback's struggles have been well-discussed. A ball-hawking defense versus a quarterback prone to turnovers? It's an understandable temptation. 

It's also an overreaction to Week 1. Tennessee had the 22nd-ranked defense in DVOA last season, lost its best cornerback for nothing and switched to a 3-4 alignment despite having a roster full of 4-3 guys. Beating the Chiefs on the road is impressive; it's also going to look like fool's gold in a few weeks.

Rank	Player	Projection
1	Stephen Gostkowski, NE	12 Points
2	Justin Tucker, BAL	11 Points
3	Mason Crosby, GB	11 Points
4	Matt Bryant, ATL	11 Points
5	Steven Hauschka, SEA	10 Points
6	Blair Walsh, MIN	10 Points
7	Brandon McManus, DEN	10 Points
8	Shayne Graham, NO	9 Points
9	Phil Dawson, SF	9 Points
10	Cody Parkey, PHI	9 Points
11	Graham Gano, CAR	8 Points
12	Dan Bailey, DAL	7 Points
13	Adam Vinatieri, IND	7 Points
14	Nick Novak, SD	7 Points
15	Dan Carpenter, MIA	7 Points

(Note: Because kicker scoring is entirely unpredictable, let's try to get through these quickly.)

Top Dog: Stephen Gostkowski, New England Patriots

The Patriots have a good matchup at Minnesota. Until we have a large sample that says Gostkowski isn't the top guy, odds are he'll stay at No. 1.  

Sleeper: Brandon McManus, Denver Broncos

McManus is owned in 10 percent of leagues and is a member of the best team in football. Until Matt Prater's suspension is over, he'll be a top-10 guy.

Bust: Nick Novak, San Diego Chargers

As the Packers found out, playing the Seahawks is not fun. Expect San Diego's scoring—and by proxy Novak's scoring—to be a bit depressed in Week 2.

Week 2 Waiver-Wire Advice

Stop Panicking

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Isaiah Crowell is not going to outscore Adrian Peterson for the rest of the season. Aaron Rodgers is not going to be the 26th-ranked quarterback. Allen Hurns, already covered. Anthony Fasano and Dwayne Allen should not be owned in standard leagues.

Because of the fervent excitement that proceeded Week 1, our natural inclination is to take everything that happened on Sunday as gospel. This happens consistently in other sports as well, but no league is as susceptible to wild fits of overreaction than the NFL. It's once per week; the entire industry is built on three days of games and four days of analysis, over-analysis, the burial and revival of narratives and 42 former players giving roughly the same soundbite.

Do yourself a favor: Block out the noise. Falling down the rabbit hole is natural, but it's also the easiest way to make a mistake that could ruin your entire season. Panic-trading Vincent Jackson so you can pick up Hurns; deciding Sammy Watkins and Mike Evans aren't worth holding in your keeper league; pretending Romo hasn't been a yearly guarantee for 4,000 yards and 30 touchdowns for his career.

Bad weeks happen, even to people who know what they're doing. Fantasy sports are a war of attrition, not something to be micromanaged to the point of insanity. Take your finger off the add-drop button and relax.

That Said...

Here is a list of players owned in 50 percent or fewer of ESPN.com standard leagues who deserve a roster spot:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Justin Forsett	RB	Baltimore Ravens	0.5%
Kelvin Benjamin	WR	Carolina Panthers	39.3%
Allen Hurns	WR	Jacksonville Jaguars	5.8%
Andrew Hawkins	WR	Cleveland Browns	11.9%
Ladarius Green	TE	San Diego Chargers	17.7%
Markus Wheaton	WR	Pittsburgh Steelers	29.7%

Grab Him Now: Justin Forsett, RB, Baltimore Ravens

It's impossible to discuss the Ravens' running back situation without having the ugly Ray Rice situation playing in the back of our minds. But let's focus on what we saw Sunday. Forsett overtook Bernard Pierce for the entirety of the second half and was the far superior running back. He gained 70 yards to Pierce's 14 and scored on a 13-yard carry.

It remains to be seen which direction Baltimore will ultimately go at the running back position once Rice's NFL-mandated suspension is over in a week, but Forsett emerged in Week 1 as the just-in-case option you need.

Stash Him While You Can: Kelvin Benjamin, WR, Carolina Panthers

Phelan M. Ebenhack/Associated Press

Sometimes talent wins out. Benjamin entered camp as a far superior talent to veterans Jerricho Cotchery and Jason Avant, and if Week 1 is any indication, he's emerged as the top target in Carolina. The former Florida State standout made six receptions for 92 yards in his first NFL game, including a 26-yard touchdown.

Keep in mind Derek Anderson was throwing him the football. 

With Cam Newton expected back for next Sunday's home opener against Detroit, Benjamin should continue to get a ton of looks. I'm interested to see how Newton looks throwing the ball and how his chemistry is with Benjamin. The history of rookie wide receivers being usable fantasy options is decidedly small, so it's best to express caution for the first couple weeks.

On the other hand, it's possible Benjamin is this year's Keenan Allen.

Wondering who to drop? Here is a list of players owned in 50% or more of ESPN.com leagues you can feel free throwing back into the waiver pool:

Player	Position	Team	Ownership
Darren McFadden	RB	Oakland Raiders	93.5%
LeGarrette Blount	RB	Pittsburgh Steelers	83.6%
Riley Cooper	WR	Philadelphia Eagles	96.7%
Knile Davis	RB	Kansas City Chiefs	58.6%
Tavon Austin	WR	St. Louis Rams	58.3%

Top Drop of the Week: Darren McFadden, RB, Oakland Raiders

The Raiders are going to be a mess offensively this season, and McFadden is clearly the second-string running back behind Maurice Jones-Drew. He received just four carries for 15 yards and was targeted in the passing game once, adding another six-yard pop to his total.

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The easiest way to decide whether to drop a player is to ask this question: Can you, under any circumstances, see yourself putting this player in your starting lineup? Of course not. McFadden's best-case scenario is Jones-Drew getting injured, at which point one of the NFL's worst offenses somehow becomes worse. Jones-Drew was drafted as a third or fourth running back in most leagues, so odds are most teams have better players already on their bench.

McFadden is a big name. Few dispute his talent. All that taken into consideration, he has averaged 3.3 yards per carry each of the last two seasons and is a backup running back. What's the upside to keeping him around?

Follow Tyler Conway (@tylerconway22) on Twitter

All ownership/scoring info is via ESPN.com.